Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Street Pharmacist]

Going into last nights game, Shorthouse said no team in the west had more points tab the Canucks since the all star break. If that's true, they never seemed dominant. I would have to think Minnesota has more, no?

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Going into last nights game, Shorthouse said no team in the west had more points tab the Canucks since the all star break. If that's true, they never seemed dominant. I would have to think Minnesota has more, no?

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

After Wednesday's games:
Prior to all star break on January 21

1. Winnipeg (26-14-8) 22 ROW, 60 pts
San Jose (25-17-6) 23 ROW, 56 pts--second in Pacific Division
Vancouver (26-16-3) 24 ROW, 55 pts--third in Pacific Division has 75 points
2. Calgary (25-19-3) 22 ROW, 53 pts
3. Los Angeles (20-15-12) 19 ROW, 52 pts
4. Colorado (20-18-10) 14 ROW, 50 pts
5. Dallas (21-18-7) 19 ROW, 49 pts
6. Minnesota (20-20-6) 18 ROW, 46 pts had 73 points prior to last night's game

You are correct Street Pharmacist.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Going into last nights game, Shorthouse said no team in the west had more points tab the Canucks since the all star break. If that's true, they never seemed dominant. I would have to think Minnesota has more, no?

Maybe he meant the Pacific, which would have been true going into last night's games (but just barely).

Prior to last night, the Canucks had 20 points since the ASG, Anaheim had 19, LA had 18, Calgary had 17, San Jose had 13, Edmonton had 13, and Arizona had 9.

After last night, Vancouver is still at 20, but Anaheim is now at 21, LA is also at 20, Calgary is at 19, and San Jose is at 15 points since the ASG.

That really shows how hard it is to gain ground in the NHL. It's been 5 weeks since the All Star break and San Jose is the only team in the Pacific playoff race to lose any significant ground.



Minnesota has 29 of a possible 34 points since the ASG.

[Obsidian]

2 games in hand on Winnipeg now with them 4 points up on us. Make these back to backs count and we'll pull even with another team.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Games in hand always muddle things. If you remember that 95 points (the likely number now as that's LA's pace) is really just 12 games over .500, then the wildcard standings look like this:

1. Vancouver 8
2. Winnipeg 8
3. San Jose 7
4. LA 7
-------------------------
5. Calgary 4
6. Dallas 3
7. Colorado

It really puts things into perspective. We had a great first half, but would now have to finish 11 games over .500 just to tie LA. We only managed 4 games over.500 to date, so it's hard to see that suddenly change, especially with the way the flames are playing right now. We're much closer to Dallas than we are Vancouver, but it's hard to see that if you only look at points. The only way for the flames to make it in is to have one of the top 4 teams on that list take a giant tumble and lower the expected points total

Wow things have changed since January 14th. That was pretty darn close to the half way point of the season, and now we're pretty much at the three quarter point. Makes for a good time frame for perspective.

Looking at the standings as games over 0.500 it now looks like this (I'm going to have to add Minnesota, as they weren't even included then! I also order then disregarding the divisional rearrangement to keep it simple) :


1. Vancouver 12
2. Minnesota 12
3. Winnipeg 11
4. Calgary 9
-------------------------
5. LA 9
6. San Jose 7
7. Dallas 2
8. Colorado 2


Vancouver is 4 more games over 0.500 but hasn't really gained any ground as they actually fall closer to the 9th place team (was 4 games, now 3).

Winnipeg has pretty much kept pace with Vancouver, and has seen their lead on 9th diminish. They have a very hard finishing schedule and tonight was one of those home dates they really should've had. Calgary plays both games in hand in them before Winnipeg's next game, so could we see Calgary catch up by the weekend? Another thing to watch is that Calgary's final game of the season is against Winnipeg.

Calgary has gained on every team except Minnesota. As much as they've allowed a little lately, they really gained ground in February. They went from 4 games above 0.500 to 9 games in a quarter of a season. That's a 102pt pace. Not bad. Obviously, Gio's absence is the wildcard in handicapping their chances from here on out. Still looking ok as they have a really easy schedule after the next 2 games. Need to get at least 21 points in their last 19 to have a chance, 23 to ensure playoffs.

LA for all their bluster has only played 2 games above 0.500 since January 14th. They lost 8 in a row, won 8, lost 3, etc. Quite inconsistent. It's hard to believe that the Kings could miss, but they very well could. The road has been brutal for them and that is where most of their remaining games will be played.
San Jose has played 0.500 hockey and that may have buried them. There's time and they've got some very good players, but they just aren't doing it consistently enough for me to believe they can jump 3 teams.

Dallas and Colorado are done. Even a Minnesota like run barely scrapes them in. Neither team has the strong underlying numbers Minnesota did to suggest it's possible either.

The biggest reason for the tightening between the teams in the playoffs is Minnesota. They simply pushed their way in and whomever would've been 8th is now 9th. Minnesota wasn't even an afterthought on January 14th. They were one game below 0.500, and now sit 12 games above. That's absurd. After some digging, I found some interesting trends. We already know their goaltending has improved. They had the league's worst save% on January 14th, and the league's best since. Another interesting thing happened though. Their shot attempts % has decreased (corsi% 5v5), but their actual shots % (they regularly outshoot opponents 5v5 like they used to) has remained flat. They're shooting the lights out and saving the lights out. Both their save% and shooting% are bound to decrease, but even decent goaltending and reasonable shooting percentages could keep them going with their strong underlying numbers. The real test is what they do with the league's hardest remaining schedule.

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games:


1. Winnipeg (32-21-12) 26 ROW, 76 pts
Vancouver (36-24-3) 32 ROW, 75 pts--second in Pacific Division
2. Minnesota (34-22-7) 31 ROW, 75 pts
Calgary (34-25-4) 31 ROW, 72 pts--third in the Pacific Division
3. Los Angeles (30-21-12) 29 ROW, 72 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
4. San Jose (32-25-8) 30 ROW, 72 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Colorado (28-25-11) 20 ROW, 67 pts
6. Dallas (28-26-10) 26 ROW, 66 pts

Avalanche won in regulation
Jets lost in regulation

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Dallas and Colorado are done. Even a Minnesota like run barely scrapes them in. Neither team has the strong underlying numbers Minnesota did to suggest it's possible either.

The biggest reason for the tightening between the teams in the playoffs is Minnesota. They simply pushed their way in and whomever would've been 8th is now 9th. Minnesota wasn't even an afterthought on January 14th. The real test is what they do with the league's hardest remaining schedule.

I have to admit that the Avs and Stars are in real trouble because they are acutally 8-10 points back of a playoff spot. The 2 wild card spots are both held by their division rivals and the Avs lose the first tie breaker because they have so few ROWs. It is amazing to see what the Wild have done since Jan. 14. Before they went on this wild streak, they lost 6 straight, earning just one point.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Obsidian

2 games in hand on Winnipeg now with them 4 points up on us. Make these back to backs count and we'll pull even with another team.

The Jets are the team that could be the weakest link.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by getbak

That really shows how hard it is to gain ground in the NHL. It's been 5 weeks since the All Star break and San Jose is the only team in the Pacific playoff race to lose any significant ground.

Kind of goes along with what I have been saying in that the Flames cannot afford a losing streak of any significance as once you lose ground it's extremely hard to make it up and with less games remaining each loss becomes that more critical. Even with the games at hand over the Jets they don't mean a lot if the Flames don't win those games as they would still be hoping for help in Jets losses in conjunction with Flames wins which means things are not in your control.

[Resolute 14]

Of the remaining schedules for the four relevant Pacific Division teams, San Jose (.655) and Calgary (.650) have the best records against the teams we have yet to play. LA (.578) is third and Vancouver (.552) is fourth. If those percentages held true for the remaining schedules, Calgary would finish at 97 points, Vancouver 96 and LA and San Jose tied at 94.

Problem is that Vancovuer has three left against the Coyotes and one vs. Edmonton, so that is pretty much eight free points. Calgary has only two games against those two, LA four and San Jose three.

San Jose has a big, ugly seven game road trip coming up that looks similar to the one we are on now.

[bomber317]

Here is a W/L spreadsheet

Flames,Kings,Sharks,Jets,Wild are included. I excluded the Canucks because their schedule is so easy, and I got lazy.

http://tinyurl.com/q5hqayy

[White Out 403]

[Murph]

I have a playoff race spreadsheet done up that includes Cal, Van, LA, SJ, Min and Wpg. Unfortunately I have no clue how to host it and therefore post it for public consumption. Can someone help me out?

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Who is doing the math here - seems a little unrealistic pegging the Flames chances at 30.7% while the Kings, Jets, Canucks etc are all in the 80% range.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by bomber317

Here is a W/L spreadsheet

Flames,Kings,Sharks,Jets,Wild are included. I excluded the Canucks because their schedule is so easy, and I got lazy.

http://tinyurl.com/q5hqayy

Great job

[Murph]

Should have looked a couple posts up

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Murph

I have a playoff race spreadsheet done up that includes Cal, Van, LA, SJ, Min and Wpg. Unfortunately I have no clue how to host it and therefore post it for public consumption. Can someone help me out?

Import to google docs?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

Who is doing the math here - seems a little unrealistic pegging the Flames chances at 30.7% while the Kings, Jets, Canucks etc are all in the 80% range.

It heavily relies on corsi and Fenwick over the previous 25 games. Calgary's has been dreadful corsi wise

[bomber317]

Calgary should be in good shape if they beat the teams below them that are out oaf the playoff race.

Then they just need a few wins against the contenders/playoff bubble teams.

Of course, teams way outside will play spoiler with their "no weight on their shoulders, let's have some fun" play aka Oilers every season for their last 20 games.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

Who is doing the math here - seems a little unrealistic pegging the Flames chances at 30.7% while the Kings, Jets, Canucks etc are all in the 80% range.

Unrealistic too when you compare the goal differentials and schedules for each team.