2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by cross16

For sure but my counter point to what would be they shouldn't need to next year. They had to based on the first half of the season but they are returning a better team next year so they shouldn't need that big of a run to either get into the playoffs or contend for the division. That's why I think people are overrating the impact Price had and forgetting that it is still a good team.

How do you figure they will be guaranteed to do better next year in the first half? They were a .500 team until mid-july due to mediocre starting pitching and a terrible bullpen. Offense was no different pre or post trades.

They are running a team out there next year that as it stands has less starting pitching than the second half of the season and questions surrounding almost every spot in the bullpen. They are just as likely to look like .500 team as they are the team than played from August until October.

Price's contribution to the Jays was massive. He went 7-1 with a WHIP of 1. of those 7 wins, he beat the Yankees 3 times, Texas once, Anaheim once, and Tampa Bay going head to head against Chris Archer. Without him they don't win the division, and may not have won the wildcard. Adding a guy like Price completely changed the attitude of everyone in the dugout. To use a hockey term, he made everyone on the ice a foot taller.

[JiriHrdina]

Less starting pitcher than the start of last year?

Let's compare rotations

2016 start
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Chavez

2015 start
Dickey
Estrada
Dickey
Buerhle
Hutch

The addition of Stroman back to the rotation to start the year makes the 2016 start point way better no?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Less starting pitcher than the start of last year?

Let's compare rotations

2016 start
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Chavez

2015 start
Dickey
Estrada
Dickey
Buerhle
Hutch

The addition of Stroman back to the rotation to start the year makes the 2016 start point way better no?

I would say it's better than it was to start last year. Stroman is really good, but Buerhle went 11-4 to start the year last year. Happ is a definite improvement on the bottom 2. I like the Chavez move, but it could also turn out poorly. He was brutal when in Toronto on first stint, and hasn't done any better coming back as a visitor. He got rocked at Rogers Centre in 2014 and shelled in 2015. Chavez's benefited from the huge field in Oakland, so we'll have to wait and see how his 2015 success translates to the Rogers Centre. Hopefully it works out for us.

That said, why are we comparing the team to the opening day roster of 2015? That team was a .500 team. The comparison should be the end of the year's roster. That is what it takes to win in the AL East.

There's way too many questions marks in that rotation for a team that for all intents and purposes is a contender in every other position.

Dickey - Can he replicate his 2nd half, or will be go back to his mediocre self.
Stroman - Can he build on an amazing comeback year. I think so, but it isn't guaranteed.
Estrada - Can he replicate a career year that came out of nowhere?
Happ - Same comment as Estrada

These guys could all end up being great, but there's no one there you can really pencil in for winning a guaranteed 15 games like you should be able to on a contender.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Less starting pitcher than the start of last year?

Let's compare rotations

2016 start
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Chavez

2015 start
Dickey
Estrada
Dickey
Buerhle
Hutch

The addition of Stroman back to the rotation to start the year makes the 2016 start point way better no?

You have Dickey twice there, and IIRC Estrada didn't even start the season in the rotation.

So that makes your point even stronger IMO.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

You have Dickey twice there, and IIRC Estrada didn't even start the season in the rotation.

So that makes your point even stronger IMO.

Yup you're right.
Sanchez was in there.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Yup you're right.
Sanchez was in there.

Norris started the year with the team didn't he? Starting rotation was:

Hutchinson
Dickey
Buerhle
Norris
Sanchez

Norris got sent down which opened the door for Estrada. Sanchez made some quality starts until he got hurt, and the revolving door of Doubront/Copeland/Boyd started.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Norris started the year with the team didn't he? Starting rotation was:

Hutchinson
Dickey
Buerhle
Norris
Sanchez

Norris got sent down with opened the door for Estrada. Sanchez made some quality starts until he got hurt, and the revolving door of Doubront/Copeland/Boyd started.

Yeah.

The rotation was a disaster in the first half.

So I imagine the hope is that having what should be a much better rotation for the first 90 games or so will balance out not having Price for his 11 starts in the last 70 games or so.

Plus hopefully a rejuvenated Tulo in the batting order for the first half.
Plus a hugely improved defensive line up with Tulo again, plus no revolving door left fielder.

The pen isn't pretty, but there are some young live arms in there, so it might be alright, especially if they do add someone.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

How do you figure they will be guaranteed to do better next year in the first half? They were a .500 team until mid-july due to mediocre starting pitching and a terrible bullpen. Offense was no different pre or post trades.

.

There are no guarantees and never said there was. What I am saying is the SP, Defence and Bullpen are all better now than they were for the first half of 2015 when all 3 were awful. Their defence is now amongst the best in the league whereas it was amongst the worst prior to the TDL. Thats a huge difference.

Jays won 93 games and Price was responsible for 7 of those so this team without Price won 84 games and that includes only winning 50%. If you give the 2015 the type of defence and SP they ahve now I think they win more than 7 games before the all star break and thats why I think people are overeacting to how critical Price was. He was critical becuase of the position they put themselves in with a not so good first half.

BTW, Which KC starter did you pencil in for 15 wins last year?

[jschick88]

Susan Slusser ‏@susanslusser 19 minutes ago
Hearing from well-placed source that Ross Atkins is Toronto's new GM.

[jschick88]

Ben Nicholson-Smith ‏@bnicholsonsmith 6 minutes ago
Context on Ross Atkins from #Indians' media guide

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Oh it's a good team, but it's also in a brutal division where depending on how the rest of FA goes could have the Jays as the 3rd best team in the division. And then there's the whole AL being brutal so even a WC berth is going to be difficult with Houston, Texas, Anaheim, Minnesota all good as well. Of course the Jays offense was also totally ridiculous last year. Even a 10% decline and they'd still be a great offense, but probably not good enough to be a playoff team. It's gonna be a very thin line between making and missing the playoffs next year. A guy like Price is someone who pushes you over the top.

Of course and in a perfect world you'd love Price but a perfect world for me doesn't include signing him until he is 38 at 30 mill bucks a year. Next offseason Martin, Tulo, Donaldson and Price alone would have accounted for 85 million between 4 players. that woudl be almost 60% of the payroll in 4 guys.

Its a brutal division but I think the Jays are keeping pace. Orioles don't look better, Red Sox are better but have alot of ground to make up and I woudn't call the Yankees better. I think the Jays are right there with the moves they've made so far and like I said I expect more.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by jschick88

Susan Slusser ‏@susanslusser 19 minutes ago
Hearing from well-placed source that Ross Atkins is Toronto's new GM.

So basically the Blue Jays are now Indians North. Not good.

[ClubFlames]

Thoughts on Jarrod Saltalamacchia as backup C?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by cross16

There are no guarantees and never said there was. What I am saying is the SP, Defence and Bullpen are all better now than they were for the first half of 2015 when all 3 were awful. Their defence is now amongst the best in the league whereas it was amongst the worst prior to the TDL. Thats a huge difference.

Jays won 93 games and Price was responsible for 7 of those so this team without Price won 84 games and that includes only winning 50%. If you give the 2015 the type of defence and SP they ahve now I think they win more than 7 games before the all star break and thats why I think people are overeacting to how critical Price was. He was critical becuase of the position they put themselves in with a not so good first half.

BTW, Which KC starter did you pencil in for 15 wins last year?

Volquez and Ventura, based on Kansas lineup. Ventura was in Stroman territory though to be fair though and I'm pretty biased as I have him in a keeper pool in fantasy baseball.

KC isn't a really good example though. They had the best bullpen in baseball and they knew it from the get go. They have the luxury of not needing starters to go deep into the games.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by ClubFlames

Thoughts on Jarrod Saltalamacchia as backup C?

He'd be a pretty solid backup. I wonder if he caught Stephen Wright (Knucklballer) any during his tenure with the Red Sox?

Wilin Rosario would also be a good backup option.

That said, I wouldn't expect the Blue Jays are willing to spend anything other than league minimum on a backup catcher. I bet we'll see Jiminez be the backup this year, if they don't end up bringing back Thole at league minimum.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Volquez and Ventura, based on Kansas lineup. Ventura was in Stroman territory though to be fare though and I'm pretty biased as I have him in a keeper pool in fantasy baseball.

KC isn't a really good example though. They had the best bullpen in baseball and they knew it from the get go. They have the luxury of not needing starters to go deep into the games.

Point was I think if you look at the Jays rotation now and the Royals starting rotation last year there isn't a big difference.

I agree about the bullpen but what if the Jays sign Ryan Madson and say Mark Lowe? Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Madson and Lowe as the back end of a bull pen if very, very good. Not to mention the Royals won 95 games with the staff they did and wth an offence not as good as the Jays. I'm not saying they are the KC Royals, but I also don't think the sky is falling this offseason like some of you. Jays are still a very good baseball team who IMO is looking like a playoff team right now.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by cross16

Point was I think if you look at the Jays rotation now and the Royals starting rotation last year there isn't a big difference.

I agree about the bullpen but what if the Jays sign Ryan Madson and say Mark Lowe? Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Madson and Lowe as the back end of a bull pen if very, very good. Not to mention the Royals won 95 games with the staff they did and wth an offence not as good as the Jays. I'm not saying they are the KC Royals, but I also don't think the sky is falling this offseason like some of you. Jays are still a very good baseball team who IMO is looking like a playoff team right now.

They aren't going to sign Madson and Lowe though. Have you read the articles and twitter reports people were posting earlier today in this thread? ESPN is saying the jays are dumpster diving to try and find a bullpen power arm. They will need to make substantial offers to get one of those guys, let alone the both of them. I would love to have them both though.

Though on paper this would ridiculous, but I would argue that KC have a better offence than the Jays when put in context. They may not put up a ten spot like the Jays do, but they advance their runners, and drive them in when they need to. It's not sexy like the Blue Jays bombs, but they won't go a couple games scoring only 1 or 2 runs, leaving 20 guys on base.

When playoff times comes around, I'd much rather the KC offence than the Jays. You aren't going to blast 3 homeruns a game facing a steady diet of fantastic pitching. That was the main difference between the Jays and KC in their series. KC cashed in bases runners in scoring position on the regular, where as the Jays didn't.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by cross16

Jays are still a very good baseball team who IMO is looking like a playoff team right now.

Absolutely.

With the usual caveats about luck and injuries the Jays actually look fairly improved upon from the start of last year. Lot of added depth to the team.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

They aren't going to sign Madson and Lowe though. Have you read the articles and twitter reports people were posting earlier today in this thread? ESPN is saying the jays are dumpster diving to try and find a bullpen power arm. They will need to make substantial offers to get one of those guys, let alone the both of them. I would love to have them both though.

Though on paper this would ridiculous, but I would argue that KC have a better offence than the Jays when put in context. They may not put up a ten spot like the Jays do, but they advance their runners, and drive them in when they need to. It's not sexy like the Blue Jays bombs, but they won't go a couple games scoring only 1 or 2 runs, leaving 20 guys on base.

When playoff times comes around, I'd much rather the KC offence than the Jays. You aren't going to blast 3 homeruns a game facing a steady diet of fantastic pitching. That was the main difference between the Jays and KC in their series. KC cashed in bases runners in scoring position on the regular, where as the Jays didn't.

yes, but have you also read the reports where the Jays are rumored to be sending "at least" 140 million this season? That would give them enough to sign at least Madsen and maybe Lowe or at least another Arm. My point is they arn't done and its not like we are late int he offseason here. If you dont' believe they will add an arm then fine but I do believe they will add at least 1 good bullpen arm and likely 2. Lots of options.

I actually agree that I would prefer that too but its not how their offence is constructed and I don't think you can change that with the offence they had. They could try and make lateral moves and i'm not opposed to that so long as its not a step back.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

.

Maybe they would have, but is essentially shows what AA's plans were (having a contender and spending money to do so) and what Rogers/Shapiro's plans are and what they will be going forward.

AA was ridiculous. He needs a 200 million payroll to win.

In the end even Rogers couldn't stand him and hired Shapiro on July 1st to politely show AA out the door in October or work under Shipiro's conditions. Sure the Jays made a nice run after July 31 but a GM can't run an organization like that.