Russia invades Ukraine

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russia's visually confirmed losses of over 750 tanks. That's almost a third of their pre-war inventory.... that's ####ing awesome.

Fixed

[burn_this_city]

5.4km Stugna hit.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533129326903939073

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533482858261643272

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533472585949888512

[Itse]

Spain is to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and Leopard battle tanks in a step up of its military support to the country, according to government sources cited by newspaper El Pais on Sunday.

Spain will also provide essential training to the Ukrainian military in how to use the tanks. It would take place in Latvia, where the Spanish Army has deployed 500 soldiers within the framework of NATO's Enhanced Advanced Presence operation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...is-2022-06-05/

[Firebot]

We don't have all the details yet, but apparently not only was the retreat of Severodonetsk a well laid out trap that was legitimate, but it was so complete Russia may lose everyone that went into the city initially and are completely decimated. They are now down to a small pocket fighting for their lives with no reserves available to relieve them.

That doesn't mean that Russia cannot retake the city, but what we do know is that Russia went from 80% captured to 80% liberated, and the blow dealt was extreme.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533522639398092802

This cannot be overstated, the Russian major offensive, their push with the majority of their troops that they abandoned the Kyiv and Kharkiv front for, has just had its main army obliterated and remnants hemmed in.

Avoid mainstream media for information, they sensationalize on purpose, are usually days behind on correct information and focus on outrage (Russia doesn't care)


“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Putin played right into the oldest war trick in the book.

[Firebot]

Lol

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533513570087993346

60 year old tanks dont count as a loss if they break down on the way

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Firebot

We don't have all the details yet, but apparently not only was the retreat of Severodonetsk a well laid out trap that was legitimate, but it was so complete Russia may lose everyone that went into the city initially and are completely decimated. They are now down to a small pocket fighting for their lives with no reserves available to relieve them.

That doesn't mean that Russia cannot retake the city, but what we do know is that Russia went from 80% captured to 80% liberated, and the blow dealt was extreme.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533522639398092802

This cannot be overstated, the Russian major offensive, their push with the majority of their troops that they abandoned the Kyiv and Kharkiv front for, has just had its main army obliterated and remnants hemmed in.

Avoid mainstream media for information, they sensationalize on purpose, are usually days behind on correct information and focus on outrage (Russia doesn't care)


“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Putin played right into the oldest war trick in the book.

Where are you getting information?

That’s not a call out, it’s a legitimate question.

We interested in the Russian’s body count

[burn_this_city]

Thread about the changing mood in Pro-Russian Telegram channels as reality of the situation begins to seep in.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533506718465916928

Bonus article written a few days ago by another fellow echoing the same thing.
https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/1...a-b79563088a6b

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Where are you getting information?

That’s not a call out, it’s a legitimate question.

We interested in the Russian’s body count

I've been getting all my information from twitter since late Feb, never used it before the war began.

I find some bigger newspapers will write some excellent articles about things that happened like the battle for Mykolaiv in the WSJ, or Hulyaipole in the NY Times, but those are always days or a week after the fact. Find most western media is 24-72 hours behind what you can learn from reliable sources on twitter.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Where are you getting information?

That’s not a call out, it’s a legitimate question.

We interested in the Russian’s body count

Multiple sources gives a good picture of what is going.

One of the best source for most recent action is https://liveuamap.com/ which uses only official source or reports. It's a good method of seeing where the most heavy and ongoing action is going. It will show current air raid sirens for example, it uses mainly the Ukrainian morning report and puts them on the map.

2 hours agoSource
Sumska Oblast(01:22). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

Subreddits like https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/ are great collection of information.

Telegram is where Ukrainian government officials often makes its first report but since I can't read Ukrainian or Russian I usually follow a few Twitter accounts that provide most recent reports, some of which try to report both sides.

Good twitter accounts that have been fairly reliable.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint

This account usually dumps all telegram videos found relating to the war (both sides), it's a bit of a mess you will get a lot of propaganda video and conflicting reports, but good to scroll through for raw videos.

https://twitter.com/RALee85


https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Generally, even the best information is still a few hours to a day old and it takes a few hours to confirm a report.

Case and point this newest plane shot down video.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533507183035527169

We do know a plane was shot down in the past 24 hours, but several conflicting reports and video, with POV from both Ukrainian and Russian side. It's looking more likely then not this was a Ukrainian plane shot down at the moment. This is where the fog of war sometimes becomes a factor.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533547417819299843

[jonesy]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

5.4km Stugna hit.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533129326903939073

Is that Arabic around the edges of the screen on that device? Wonder where it came from.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by jonesy

Is that Arabic around the edges of the screen on that device? Wonder where it came from.

Its from Ukraine, this is an export model that they haven't switched the language support from Arabic to Ukrainian.

[FlameOn]

MOD and map updates. Past few days Russians have started launching missile attacks on Kyiv in an attempt to disrupt Western supplies flowing from Poland into eastern Ukraine where Ukrainian forces have managed to stay a big counter-offensive in Sievierodonetsk over advancing Russian forces. At one point Russians were control of over 70% of the city but Ukrainians have managed to retake the majority of the city now inflicting significant losses to Russian forces.

No other areas of significant change

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533681853311463428

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533590808070197248

Larger detailed map from Wikipedia

Spoiler!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

Meanwhile more weapon's transfers from EU countries including a currently undisclosed number of M270 (HIMARS variant) rocket launchers from the UK and Spain now confirmed to be sending 40 modern Leopard 2A4 tanks. Poland has now also confirmed their transfer of 60 additional KRAB 155mm self-propelled artillery units, this is on top of the 18 already sent.

Russians on the other hand are digging their 60 year old T-62 tanks out of monthballs to replace their losses.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...e_systems.html
http://www.armyrecognition.com/defen...howitzers.html
https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukra...dern_mbts.html

[Itse]

Turkey's resistance to Sweden joining NATO is currently threatening to collapse the Swedish government. The short version is;

Opposition has organized a parliamentary vote to remove the current minister of justice for local Swedish reasons (specifically, Sweden has a rising gang violence problem). (These types of votes are pretty common in Swedish politics.) The prime minister has threatened to resign if the motion passes, which would collapse the government.

The four parties that have joined in on this currently have 174 votes in the parliament, out of 175 needed to pass the motion and force the resignation. In other words, the government hangs on one vote.

The way this relates to Turkey and NATO is that there's one very specific undecided vote: Amineh Kakabaveh, an independent Kurdish mp, who obviously is very concerned over the demands Turkey has placed on Sweden about the kurdish question. Turkey is demanding (among other things) that Sweden should send over kurdish opposition figures currently living in Sweden, something Kakabaveh obviously opposes.

So, as things are, if the current Swedish government tries to give in too much to Turkey on the Kurdish issue, Kakabaveh could realistically bring the government down and force an early election.

Who says politics are boring

[CroFlames]

It's concerning (if you are Swedish, or an ally of Sweden) if there is an MP who may or may not be 100% loyal to Sweden, and this vote is about to take place that would have all sorts of NATO implications.

[burn_this_city]

Donated tanks and APCs on the move.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533696991884197889

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

It's concerning (if you are Swedish, or an ally of Sweden) if there is an MP who may or may not be 100% loyal to Sweden, and this vote is about to take place that would have all sorts of NATO implications.

Umm, that's kind of a racist take.

The kurds under threat here are Swedes, and they are looking out for their own interest. That mp is representing the minority she was chosen to represent.

A government is not the country.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Donated tanks and APCs on the move.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533696991884197889

Interesting they've gotten those Polish T-72 refurbed, installed with the ERA package and into service so quickly. Hopefully they can make a difference in the East

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Itse

Umm, that's kind of a racist take.

The kurds under threat here are Swedes, and they are looking out for their own interest. That mp is representing the minority she was chosen to represent.

A government is not the country.

I certainly meant no racism by it, and I will reword it if necessary.

I definitely misread your post. I didn't realize the Swedish MP of Kurdish descent was protecting Kurds within Sweden. That makes tons of sense. The way I initially read it was the MP was putting the interests of Kurds outside of Sweden ahead of the national interest of Sweden.

Turkey demanding extradition is, of course, ridiculous.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I certainly meant no racism by it, and I will reword it if necessary.

I definitely misread your post. I didn't realize the Swedish MP of Kurdish descent was protecting Kurds within Sweden. That makes tons of sense. The way I initially read it was the MP was putting the interests of Kurds outside of Sweden ahead of the national interest of Sweden.

Turkey demanding extradition is, of course, ridiculous.

Unfortunately it's not THAT ridiculous. Turkey has already got PKK on the list of terrorist organizations in other NATO countries.

Keeping Turkey happy is also right now unusually important to everyone on Ukraine's side, as Turkey has huge opportunities to influence the conflict one way or the other.

My guess is that Turkey unfortunately will mostly win this one. History has shown many times that the west is quite ready to eff the Kurds when it's convenient.