According to Arestovich, Urkraine has lured Russians into a trap in Severodonetsk and have started a major counteroffensive. If it's being announced it means its already well underway.
Basically we are seeing the start of some of the major counteroffensives which were being planned for mid june to the summer. But the Russians with their one directional thinking keep making it easy for them.
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I don't know, I would take that with a pretty big grain of salt. I don't think you set a trap by allowing the enemy to surround a region on 3 sides and let them be able to fire on your only real route in or out.
I'm sure there's some truth to it (i.e. they probably withdrew to a safer spot within the city to allow them to counterattack incoming forces), but the situation for Ukrainian forces in that region is pretty tenuous based on basically all the evidence coming out. You'd have to think the chance of them starting a large counteroffensive from such a poorly supplied position is pretty remote.
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I don't know, I would take that with a pretty big grain of salt. I don't think you set a trap by allowing the enemy to surround a region on 3 sides and let them be able to fire on your only real route in or out.
I'm sure there's some truth to it (i.e. they probably withdrew to a safer spot within the city to allow them to counterattack incoming forces), but the situation for Ukrainian forces in that region is pretty tenuous based on basically all the evidence coming out. You'd have to think the chance of them starting a large counteroffensive from such a poorly supplied position is pretty remote.
whilst I agree it may be propaganda I think the idea isnt that they start the counteroffensive from inside the salient/city, the idea is the Russian pincers become very vunurable from the Ukrainian side, basically in order to cut off the city they had to expose their flanks to the Ukranians, its basically Kursk in reverse, offer the enemy a juicy salient to cut off and them storm into their flanks once they have fully engaged
In Russia, Putin unhappy with the progress of the offensive has now fired 5 generals. Seems like in the Russian/Soviet military there are only 3 career paths for generals: Killed in action, fired for incompetence, or purged/disappeared in peacetime. Apparently generals are also highly unhappy with Putin himself with some unconfirmed leaked calls from the generals criticizing Putin himself. This whole war and Russia's irrational decisions are being made worse by Putin wanting to cement his legacy. He is confirmed now to having been treated for cancer in April by US intelligence. The intelligence report also says that there was an assassination attempt on Putin in March https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires...ntinue-1712053 https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-p...t-says-1710357
I just saw this on social media now. Considering it's from US intelligence and they have every reason to make this up, it'll be interesting to see other non-western outlets confirm these reports independently.
I just saw this on social media now. Considering it's from US intelligence and they have every reason to make this up, it'll be interesting to see other non-western outlets confirm these reports independently.
Every time this story pops up it's either Yahoo News, Newsweek or The Daily Mail UK reporting it. Not exactly the cream of the crop. Would like to see it from multiple reputable sources before believing it.
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Every time this story pops up it's either Yahoo News, Newsweek or The Daily Mail UK reporting it. Not exactly the cream of the crop. Would like to see it from multiple reputable sources before believing it.
Newsweek's retracted the statement about the attempt on Putin's life, wasn't accurate apparently.
I don't know, I would take that with a pretty big grain of salt. I don't think you set a trap by allowing the enemy to surround a region on 3 sides and let them be able to fire on your only real route in or out.
I'm sure there's some truth to it (i.e. they probably withdrew to a safer spot within the city to allow them to counterattack incoming forces), but the situation for Ukrainian forces in that region is pretty tenuous based on basically all the evidence coming out. You'd have to think the chance of them starting a large counteroffensive from such a poorly supplied position is pretty remote.
Defense in depth is a military tactics that Ukraine has used throughout this war.
Russia has a superior force in terms of men and equipment, especially in that area where they heavily outnumber Ukraine. But their leadership is dumber then a bag of nails, spearheaded by Putin's most recent request to take the Donbas at all cost.
They are throwing everything they have on this tiny little city with no strategic value outside of getting closer to Putin's inane declaration. It's a city on the low ground, not very defendable, and on the wrong side of a river (UA's back is to the river). Now losing the city makes it much more difficult to retake, but there's really not much left of the city and UA is withdrawing slowly while inflicting heavy casualties.
The amount of troops thrown is that Russia had 70K troops tied to taking this city and area, and had about 20% casualties so far.
But if you know the enemy's objective and they are superior, you won't face it head on. You let them exhaust and expand their supply lines and hope to catch them flatfooted, and hit them where they are weak. And you never let the enemy stop from doing the wrong thing.
Basically UA is retaking Kherson, worth much more both strategically and tactically then keeping a weak position in Donbas that will get Russian troops hemmed in against an advantageous defensive position. Severodonetsk isn't likely going to go fully back in Ukrainian hands when dealing with the counteroffensive that was mentioned there where UA did a heavy pushback within the city itself, but it does mean that Russians are losing significant troops there and are tied up in the area. Meanwhile all around Severodonetsk, UA has pushed back and done significant damage the past 24 hours (Popasna most specifically).
Defense in depth is a military tactics that Ukraine has used throughout this war.
Russia has a superior force in terms of men and equipment, especially in that area where they heavily outnumber Ukraine. But their leadership is dumber then a bag of nails, spearheaded by Putin's most recent request to take the Donbas at all cost.
They are throwing everything they have on this tiny little city with no strategic value outside of getting closer to Putin's inane declaration. It's a city on the low ground, not very defendable, and on the wrong side of a river (UA's back is to the river). Now losing the city makes it much more difficult to retake, but there's really not much left of the city and UA is withdrawing slowly while inflicting heavy casualties.
The amount of troops thrown is that Russia had 70K troops tied to taking this city and area, and had about 20% casualties so far.
But if you know the enemy's objective and they are superior, you won't face it head on. You let them exhaust and expand their supply lines and hope to catch them flatfooted, and hit them where they are weak. And you never let the enemy stop from doing the wrong thing.
They're not just taking that one city though. They're (slowly) advancing to take control of all of Luhansk. The UK Ministry of Defense expects Russia to control Luhansk Oblast (which includes Lysychansk, which is the defensive position where the Ukrainian army is currently withdrawing to) within 2 weeks. Yes, it's at a heavy and most likely unsustainable cost for Russia, but the idea that this is some sort of trap and that Ukraine has already begun a major counteroffensive in the region isn't backed by any evidence. The Ukrainian army is in serious trouble in that area right now, as they're significantly outnumbered and their supply routes are tenuous.
Will Ukraine's tactics leave Russia battered and ripe for a counteroffensive in the coming months? Hopefully (and I assume that's their plan), but it's going to be an extremely difficult task to take back land once Russia is in a more defensive position. Ukraine is still lacking in air power and is at a disadvantage in their artillery numbers.
Russia's invasion has been an abject failure if you measure it by their original objectives. But that doesn't mean they're not seeing some successes or aren't in a position where they will likely be able to defend their positions.
Basically UA is retaking Kherson, worth much more both strategically and tactically then keeping a weak position in Donbas that will get Russian troops hemmed in against an advantageous defensive position.
They've made a few probing attacks with very small groups, but they're certainly not trying to retake Kherson at this point. Not much has happened there in the week or so since that tweet. The front line is basically unchanged and is still 20-30km from the city. Retaking Kherson is going to be a monumental and very costly task.
This war is 100 days old, and isn't going to finish in 100 days.
Ukraine isn't going to go out and swoop in and clear Ukraine of Russians in a week, a month, or perhaps even a year. But Russia has thrown everything it has, while Ukraine has significant reserves behind the main line and training new recruits to NATO standard.
3 months ago we were talking to a massive 40km long convoy going to Kyiv and being encircled, Kharkiv in severe danger of falling
Russia has to abandon multiple fronts to get to where they are right now, and are barely making any significant gains with the bulk of their military concentrated at a point.
That isn't sustainable, no matter how many minor battle victories they get over upcoming weeks. They have already lost.
We keep hearing of rumours of a major counteroffensive, which is likely to be mid June or early summer. It is clearly coming, but you won't know until it's already been launched for a day or two. If you look up the battle of Stalingrad, there was fierce defensive battling for the city, but behind the front lines lines Soviets had amassed an incredible amount of reserves which was used for a counteroffensive called Operation Uranus that surprised the flanks and encircled the main German and Romanian armies in Stalingrad, which was the turning point of the war.
Of course, if Russians give opportunities to be flanked earlier or lose more troops, Ukraine will certainly take the opportunity to inflict as much damage as they can with as little loss as possible.
Don't be shocked when a true mass counteroffensive seemingly come out of nowhere.
Last edited by Firebot; 06-03-2022 at 10:58 AM.
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We keep hearing of rumours of a major counteroffensive, which is likely to be mid June or early summer. It is clearly coming, but you won't know until it's already been launched for a day or two. If you look up the battle of Stalingrad, there was fierce defensive battling for the city, but behind the front lines lines Soviets had amassed an incredible amount of reserves which was used for a counteroffensive called Operation Uranus that surprised the flanks and encircled the main German and Romanian armies in Stalingrad, which was the turning point of the war.
Sounds like an aptly named operation
/jrhighhumour
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Update from my wife's village, Kozacha Lopan in the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
Spoiler!
This morning (PM their time) my wife was talking to her Mom on the phone and could hear explosions in the background as they talked. Suddenly an explosion happened a lot closer, so she quickly told my wife she was hanging up and was running with her sister to the basement in the unit across the street.
Minutes later my wife got a call from her friend's father. He lives across the street from Mom and said as the explosions were happening, he saw out the window/balcony Mom and her sister running to their basement across the street, only for an explosion to hit a unit's roof and rubble fall all over them. He said he saw them both limp up and pretty much limp to safety.
Obviously my wife and I were quite upset to hear this, as we had no idea of the injuries or how serious they were. All we know is that the women managed to scurry away. A total of 15 projectiles (supposedly mortars, according to the Telegram chat) landed on my MIL's street. Why their street, we have no idea. Their street is away from the village's center, where most of the soliders and equipment are stationed. Occasionally they have soldiers patrolling their street. Could have been either the UA army closing in, or maybe the Russians using that street as a practice ground. All we can do is speculate what happened.
Then moments ago, MIL called again to say she was safe. Apparently as they were running, the explosive projectile hit the building close to them and the rubble missed them by a few feet. A bit scraped and bruised, but thankfully not as serious as we though it might be.
Unfortunately with my wife's family in the middle of it still, we don't have the option to change the TV channel or ignore it like many people are now. I wish we could, but we just don't have that option. As with everyone following this war, we are truly tired of it, my wife especially. The fighting north of Kharkiv city just under the border still rages on. UA army is pushing hard to take the E105 and T2117 highways by the border. The Russians are fighting hard to keep Kozacha Lopan under their control, as they supposedly fear if the UA army takes it, Belogorod will be within artillery range. Not sure how true that is, but Kozacha Lopan is a highly contested area that is also being used as a propoganda filming area to show the Russians back home how the brave Russian forces are "liberating" Ukraine.
There is news in Kherson that the Russians are trying to instill the Russian Ruble as the main currency. Same thing happening in KL. The store is now being stocked with food and medicine from the Russians. Except you can only pay in Rubles there now.
Last edited by Huntingwhale; 06-03-2022 at 01:55 PM.
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I don't even know how I would cope in your position. A foreign government literally just injured your MIL with the intention of killing her. Hard to fathom this in 2022, yet here we are.
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It does seem like Ukraine is succeeding in forcing Russia to devote extra resources to Sievierodonetsk, weakening the rest of their line and reducing the chance of them successfully encircling that area. Right now the Russian forces have a ~20km gap between their north and south front lines, which doesn't sound like a lot, but that's only about 25km less than it was a month ago. And now they're taking heavier losses by trying to take Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk head on.
