Unpopular Opinions about Flames

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Most gms are more effective when allowed to manage for the long term
The pattern of constant changes is a common attribute of organizations that don’t succeed
Lead to different outcome

Getting in the playoffs 50 percent of the time and only trading away half your first round picks to have that rate of success is not just successful for a Calgary Flames GM, it is damn successful. 10 year extension for Brad. And we got Lucic, that is just the cherry on a very successful ice cream sundae.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Getting in the playoffs 50 percent of the time and only trading away half your first round picks to have that rate of success is not just successful for a Calgary Flames GM, it is damn successful. 10 year extension for Brad. And we got Lucic, that is just the cherry on a very successful ice cream sundae.

Half the first round picks? Since Treliving has been GM the only year this team does not have a player on their roster drafted in the first round is 2018.

He traded his 2015 1st for Hamilton and 3 years later traded Hamilton for a player drafted 10 spots ahead of where the Flames were slated to pick in 2015.

This is his 6th year as GM when he took over a team one year into a scorched earth rebuild where the team got absolutely nothing for their stars. Making the playoffs 3 out of 5 years when the team was starting from scratch and had missed the playoffs 6 straight years prior to that.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Half the first round picks? Since Treliving has been GM the only year this team does not have a player on their roster drafted in the first round is 2018.

He traded his 2015 1st for Hamilton and 3 years later traded Hamilton for a player drafted 10 spots ahead of where the Flames were slated to pick in 2015.

This is his 6th year as GM when he took over a team one year into a scorched earth rebuild where the team got absolutely nothing for their stars. Making the playoffs 3 out of 5 years when the team was starting from scratch and had missed the playoffs 6 straight years prior to that.

It was quite the scorched earth rebuild, the best team the Flames have had from a playoff success perspective was the first team treliving had. I have to give him that, he took the team Feaster built and the coach Feaster hired to the 2nd round of the playoffs which was our best playoff run since 2004.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I can’t think of many successful organizations that prioritize tenure over performance.

The Patriots went through 4 coaches in 9 years before they found the guy worth keeping.

Marvin Lewis coached the Bengals for 16 seasons.

The Oilers have had the same guys running the show for how long?

If you think Treliving is good, then he should be the guy. I personally have a hard time getting there as his plan is rather opaque. But you can’t blame this franchise’s record on having a quick trigger finger on GM’s. No one has left here for success elsewhere since Cliff Fletcher. Most have never GM’ed again.

I think the same thing applies to coaches. Once they have completed their time with the Flames they are done with the NHL (Daryl Sutter being the exception).

[mrdonkey]

Teams aren't bad because of turnover. Bad teams have more turnover because they have a pattern of hiring the wrong people to run them.

Treliving has had six years to turn things around and has not delivered. The team is a stale, boring mess with a weak pipeline, massive amounts of wasted cap space, and no clear vision. He's built something much closer to the post-Phaneuf Darryl Sutter teams than a contender. If that's the guy you hitch your wagon to just for the sake of stability, knock yourself out. I'd rather watch paint dry.

[Saqe]

I don't think you can blame Treliving for the core which he inherited. If it's not good enough then not much he can do about it. What he does get blame for are the brutal UFA signings that not only haven't worked but hurt the team. The revolving door in coaching and goaltending hasn't helped either.



Overall his moves always looked good on paper but never really worked out. The only significant win for him has been Lindholm.

[Poe969]

How does he not take blame for the core? He didn't draft them but he's decided to keep them for the past 6 years and he signed them to extensions. If he doesn't think this core can do it, make some moves. If this team isn't the team that is going to win you the Stanley Cup, and IMO it isn't, then make changes. People always say that change for the sake of change is bad but if this team isn't good enough, that's the reason to make changes. The way this team is playing, it's hard to believe they're a playoff team, maybe they'll turn it around like the Blues did last year who knows? I will say that this year is a pivotal year for the team. I would be open to trading just about anyone on this team by the deadline or next off season if they can't get it done this year. If they're out by the deadline, not only should they move Brodie, Hamonic, Frolik and Janko, they should seriously look at trading Johnny. The deadline and the draft are where teams are willing to overpay for assets and it would be nice if the Flames could capitalize on that. I don't think they should just make the trades and take whatever offer, they do need to make the returns on any "major assets" count.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Poe969

How does he not take blame for the core? He didn't draft them but he's decided to keep them for the past 6 years and he signed them to extensions. If he doesn't think this core can do it, make some moves. If this team isn't the team that is going to win you the Stanley Cup, and it isn't, then make changes. People always say that change for the sake of change is bad but if this team isn't good enough, that's the reason to make changes. The way this team is playing, it's hard to believe they're a playoff team, maybe they'll turn it around like the Blues did last year who knows? I will say that this year is a pivotal year for the team. I would be open to trading just about anyone on this team by the deadline or next off season if they can't get it done this year. If they're out by the deadline, not only should they move Brodie, Hamonic, Frolik and Janko, they should seriously look at trading Johnny. The deadline and the draft are where teams are willing to overpay for assets and it would be nice if the Flames could capitalize on that. I don't think they should just make the trades and take whatever offer, they do need to make the returns on any "major assets" count.

There is no way you can possibly know this. The worst team in the first half of last season won the SC. Hockey is really unpredictable.

[Poe969]

true, I should have said IMO

[zamler]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There is no way you can possibly know this. The worst team in the first half of last season won the SC. Hockey is really unpredictable.

So we're making a coaching change soon?

[Toonage]

My latest unpopular opinion: I'm kind of excited to see what all our players get at the deadline

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by zamler

So we're making a coaching change soon?

I didn't say the exact same pattern has to take place, I am saying hockey is unpredictable. Nobody at this time last season was thinking we would finish first in the West either. Maybe it would be better if we don't dominate during the regular season and have to play playoff hockey down the stretch to get in. There is no reason why this team can't get hot and be a SC contender.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Poe969

How does he not take blame for the core? He didn't draft them but he's decided to keep them for the past 6 years and he signed them to extensions. If he doesn't think this core can do it, make some moves. If this team isn't the team that is going to win you the Stanley Cup, and it isn't, then make changes. People always say that change for the sake of change is bad but if this team isn't good enough, that's the reason to make changes. The way this team is playing, it's hard to believe they're a playoff team, maybe they'll turn it around like the Blues did last year who knows? I will say that this year is a pivotal year for the team. I would be open to trading just about anyone on this team by the deadline or next off season if they can't get it done this year. If they're out by the deadline, not only should they move Brodie, Hamonic, Frolik and Janko, they should seriously look at trading Johnny. The deadline and the draft are where teams are willing to overpay for assets and it would be nice if the Flames could capitalize on that. I don't think they should just make the trades and take whatever offer, they do need to make the returns on any "major assets" count.

First, you have to see the core in the playoffs couple of times since they are/were young to make any evaluation. Also it's not only about the core but the supporting group. Tre tried to find supporting group but mostly failed in the free agency.



Second, it's not easy to make a trade such as 1C (Monahan) for another. And it's almost impossible to get an upgrade and would require getting lucky if anything to get a guy that would flourish in Calgary like in the case of Lindholm.



But I agree that at this point Tre is responsible. He's been the GM long enough and has to make a decision regarding the core. If they can't get it done in the playoffs then he has to make a bigger shakeup.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

It was quite the scorched earth rebuild, the best team the Flames have had from a playoff success perspective was the first team treliving had. I have to give him that, he took the team Feaster built and the coach Feaster hired to the 2nd round of the playoffs which was our best playoff run since 2004.

The 8th seeded Flames played the 6th seeded Canucks in the first round. Doesn’t happen like that too often. That season also highlights some of the best GM work Treliving has done in trading Glencross (who would be forced to retire after the season because he failed to score a contract on a PTO) for a 2nd and third and then moved Sven for a 2nd.

2015 draft had the Hamilton heist and he still picked 3 NHLers out of that draft in Anderson, Kylington and Mangipane. Who was the last Flames GM to pick 3 NHLers out of a single draft? Who was the last Flames GM to pick 3 NHL players out of a draft without a 1st round pick?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Joborule

I asked this in the PGT for the last game, but will ask here. Which other teams in the NHL have more top 6 players than the Flames? What makes each of those players top 6? Flames have 4 out of six I think we would agree. So there's two on the top line that don't fit the bill, but is that really the case? Do other teams that make the playoffs each have 6 players that qualify as top 6?

I feel that we may be overblowing the notion of not having two other players to make the team scoring lines more complete. I feel that the only teams that feature 5 or 6 players that are considered 'top 6' by CP's criteria are extremely stack. Granted, it is something that should be attained still, but may be unrealistic in this salary cap landscape.

Flames have the ability to spread out 4 top tier talents amongst two lines. They can form combinations that have them as pairs between the two lines, with a fill in player to complete the lines, or overload the top line with three of them (which they are doing), and put all the onus on one player to carry the two others on the line.

I think what teams typically have when they have two scoring lines, is two strong centres that are running their lines. With splitting Lindholm and Monahan up so they can be the centre for their own lines, Flames have ideally two good centres to run their lines. If Monahan could get his head out of his ass, and start making #### happen again, that could be the difference of having two effective scoring lines then. Because the roster does have players that could play along with Monahan and be positive contributors. They can be your Ferland's and Glencross's whereas on their own they aren't gonna make a difference, but with linemate(s) that can dictate play, can light up the lamp.

So I don't feel the issue with the Flames is not having another top 6 player to bring the number up to 5 on the team. I think it's moreso that the top players aren't preform as they're expected to anymore aside from Lindholm.

So there are two factors here:

1) is the top end quality of the players by position
2) Is the drop off between the top end and the next tier.

For part #2, a huge problem with the Top 6 this year is that the drop off from Tkachuk to guys #5 and especially #6 is huge. Many teams may not have a 6 bonafide 'top 6' guys in their lineup, but their #6 guy is either a tremendous chemistry fit that boosts the sum of the line, OR, is a bonafide top tier 3rd line player in their own right.

Calgary had this scenario 2 years ago with Frolik. While Frolik was a 3rd line guy, his chemistry with Backlund and Tkachuk elevated his play to be greater than the sum of that line's parts.

However, because of the age related decline of Backlund and Frolik, Frolik is no longer able to bridge that gap with chemistry and is no longer a top tier 3rd liner. The rest of the options being tried in that spot are 4th liners, and so the drop off between Tkachuk (a first line quality player) and his linemates is significant. There aren't many contending teams that have a 4th line quality player playing on their 2nd line.

For me, however, you could still passably have that scenario were it not for the problems with criteria #1.

Neither Monahan nor Backlund are upper tier with respect to their slot in the lineup.

Contending teams have excellent 1-2 punches down the middle, while the Flames have one of the weaker 1-2 punches among the top 3rd in the league.

Every year you see some top line centre dominate or some 2nd line centre emerge to dominate.

Monahan just isn't on the level of a kopitar/toews/cros/malkin/ROR/Bergeron. Depending on the team makeup, you could work with that, for example if the Flames had a monahan clone on the 2nd line as well, you can work with that. However, an underwhelming centre on line 1 then gives way to an underwhelming centre on line 2. Backlund just isn't on the same tier as a David Krejci or a Paul Statsny or a Brayden Schenn or a prime Jeff Carter or a Kuznetsov or a prime Andy McDonald etc etc.

The Flames are arguably weakest at the most important position, and that's not going to translate to sustained wins. It's certainly not intimidating any other contenders out there. Neither player is so good as to substantially elevate inadequate linemates, and so the lack of a 2nd line RW is devastating to both players when they play in that second line spot.

Look at Colorado as an example. They ran through Calgary because their top line centre was one of the best players in the league during the first round of the playoffs.

Backlund finished 5th in icetime on the flames forwards last year playing 17:54 a night. Soderberg finished 5th on the Avs in icetime last year playing 17:27 a night. Soderberg ended up with 2 more goals and 2 more points than Backlund.

So while the Avs top line and the Flames top line were on par with each other from a points production standpoint, the Avs point production critically came down the middle whereas the Flames came from the wing. And while the Avs didn't have a second line player like Tkachuk, they had 2 other centres besides MacKinnon capable of 40-50 points.

Ultimately their second line was a weakness in the next round however, so they have improved it this year with Kadri.

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Here's the top 2 centre scoring totals for the last handful of cup champs.

2018 Caps: 160 pts
2017 Pens: 161 pts
2016 Pens: 143 pts (Malkin missed 25 games)
2015 Hawks: 103 pts (Jennings trophy)
2014 Kings: 126 pts (Jennings trophy)
2013 Hawks: 116 pt pace (lockout half season / Jennings trophy)
2012 Kings: 120 pts (add Jeff Carter at deadline)

You ain't going to win the cup unless you've either got two 75-85 point centres or the stingiest team defense in the entire league.

The Flames have neither.

Suggests to me the course of action is acquire one of the best centres in the league, because I don't think you're ever going to have the stingiest team defense with a roster containing both gaudreau and monahan. I just don't think it's possible.

In the second half of the regular season, the St. Louis Blues i believe had the best goals against in the entire league. Jennings quality team defense, a great 1-2 centre punch and perhaps the best 3 zone centre in the entire league that year. And they won the cup.

[Steve Bozek]

Here’s an unpopular opinion (I’m in Debbie Downer mode):
This is not a slump - the Flames are now in decline. Age is catching up to Giordano, Ryan, Frolik, and even Backlund. Monahan and Gaudreau’s scoring ability peaked last year. The replacements for summer departures are inferior to the players lost - Lucic nor Reider (or Quine) are not as good as Hathaway and Neal - regardless of how badly we might feel Neal played. Tkachuk is not improving. The bottom six forwards have either regressed or have not improved.
Weak positives: Lindholm is playing as well as last year. The only improving players are on defense, Andersson Hanifin and Kylington, but that improvement is balanced by the modest decline in Giordano, Brodie and Hamonic’s performance.

It all adds up to a bubble team with a good chance of missing the playoffs.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Teams aren't bad because of turnover. Bad teams have more turnover because they have a pattern of hiring the wrong people to run them.

Treliving has had six years to turn things around and has not delivered. The team is a stale, boring mess with a weak pipeline, massive amounts of wasted cap space, and no clear vision. He's built something much closer to the post-Phaneuf Darryl Sutter teams than a contender. If that's the guy you hitch your wagon to just for the sake of stability, knock yourself out. I'd rather watch paint dry.

This team just finished 2nd in the league and they are currently 19th in the league after one month of the season. This is some of the worst overreaction to a mediocre month I have ever read. The Sutter lead Flames were a bunch of 30+ guys where this group has 4 of their top forwards aged 21-26 and 4 Dmen 23 or younger that all have top 4 potential (1 already is top 4 with another close behind).

[442scotty]

It’s not just a Flames problem it’s the same issue with a lot of teams. Everyone is getting paid! Guaranteed contracts if you are performing or not. Other than personal pride what’s the incentive? Better give it my all or I’m get sent down, lose my fat pay check? Nope. If you have too many comfortable players on a team you get what we are watching right now. Is it the only problem with our team? No ... just part of it. This team needs more warriors and a genuine warrior sniper.

It’s no wonder attendance is down pretty much everywhere. Who wants to overpay to see a team live when you never know if they are going to put out a solid effort. Just my Halloween rant ...

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This team just finished 2nd in the league and they are currently 19th in the league after one month of the season. This is some of the worst overreaction to a mediocre month I have ever read. The Sutter lead Flames were a bunch of 30+ guys where this group has 4 of their top forwards aged 21-26 and 4 Dmen 23 or younger that all have top 4 potential (1 already is top 4 with another close behind).

Some people are going to cling to that 2nd place finish until it's something like "Just three seasons ago we finished second in the league!"

It didn't matter. The Flames got exposed. For the last quarter of the season last year they were an average team and they got embarrassed in the playoffs. The second place regular season finish is a mirage and now we're just continuing on the trajectory that started post ASG last season.

This is not a team that can win it all. It needs changes, but it's the Flames, so they'll tinker around the edges and wait too long to trade valuable components and then we'll just be back here again in 5 years.

And no, stability isn't a virtue when you're cementing mediocrity.

[Saqe]

Yeah I don't understand why the regular season performance is so important. If they had done something with it in the playoffs I could see a point bringing it up but they were dominated after the first game against the Avs. If there's anything to take away from last year is that they're not built for the playoffs. And that's really the only thing that should matter unless they're aiming for the President's trophy.