Federal Election Polling Thread

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

I think the NDP were largely just a lifeboat for Liberals who fled their sinking ship in the last election.

With a new and apparently seaworthy red vessel, they're just heading home again. I'm not sure the NDP could have done much to prevent it without abandoning their principles entirely, or the Liberals scuttling their new ship through campaign error or the ineptitude of the captain.

Hoping for a strong Liberal minority tomorrow so we can have a bit of a feeling-out period with Trudeau Jr.

All these maritime metaphors and you didn't use a Red October reference?

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by octothorp

All these maritime metaphors and you didn't use a Red October reference?

In a sinking metaphor, submarines confuse everything.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If Harper resigns who are the likely candidates to take over?

Jean Charest has been mumbled.

[edslunch]

Comparing PollTracker average between the start and end of the campaign:
CPC: 30.9 => 30.9
NDP: 33.2 => 21.7
LIB: 25.9 => 37.2
GRN: 4.7 => 4.4
BQ: 4.7 => 4.9

A) I guess we know the size of the Conservative base
B) This really was a battle for ABH vote

[burn_this_city]

Pretty sure the Liberals will win a majority tonight. People are out to oust Harper and a lot of NDP voters will go Liberal to ensure he's done. The huge drop off in the NDP in the last few days seems to support that idea.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

308 is showing that the Conservatives lead the Liberals in my riding by 0.1%. I am pretty sure that at the start, it was supposed to be a CPC cakewalk.

How reliable is that site?

It's an aggregator, but overall I would say it is pretty accurate. I was working for a PC candidate in Calgary-Fish Creek during the Provincial campaign and laughed at 308's prediction of a narrow NDP win there. The PC candidate only won by 125 votes over the NDP candidate in what is a deep blue conservative part of the city.

Although 308 was technically wrong, it was pretty accurate in calling that it was a close win with far less data than he has at his disposal now. No other pundit/pollster was calling that area a NDP win.

On a riding by riding level, not very accurate at all.

For instance, it has Tom Mulcair losing Outremont, which is extremely unlikely.

If there really is a Liberal surge that overtakes Quebec, it may happen. Unlikely but may happen.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by nik-

Seems like the NDP are heading back to their historical position of irrelevancy. Nice campaign Tom.

Still on track to hold way more seats than they've ever held before last election. Outside of Quebec they are looking likely to hold a lot of their gains. Of course Quebec was nearly all of their gains, but not irrelevant.

[Ducay]

You won't see NDP back into its former self until there is the next push for sovereignty in Quebec and they go back to the Bloc. For now, I think most moderate Quebec'ers like having representation in the house by a legitimate national party that can effect change.

[PeteMoss]

I'm curious about Quebec here. At least recently if my memory serves they tend to vote for one party in a giant wave (outside of Montreal). I'll be interested to see if this kind of split vote actually happens there. 308 has it 34 NDP, 26 LIB, 11 CPC, 7 BQ

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm curious about Quebec here. At least recently if my memory serves they tend to vote for one party in a giant wave (outside of Montreal). I'll be interested to see if this kind of split vote actually happens there. 308 has it 34 NDP, 26 LIB, 11 CPC, 7 BQ

That's where I think you could see most of the NDP votes going to the Liberals.

[EldrickOnIce]

An interesting thing is, if in fact the niqab 'debate' did influence voters in Quebec, it might win the election for the LPC. Prior to that becoming an issue, the NDP was set to virtually sweep Quebec. The largest benefactor from the shift away from NDP in Quebec will be the Liberals.

[mrkajz44]

Looked at the final numbers at 308 this morning and I'm thinking a liberal majority is in store. They have so much momentum, and the predictions on that site are still weighing polls from past days into the computations. I understand why rolling polls tend to be better, but since the Liberals on on the rise, I feel their true support is higher than the site predicts.

It'll be close though, might only get a majority by a seat or two.

[FlamesAddiction]

I just realized that I am in a new riding. We are literally on the edge of our old riding and I don't think a lot of people realize it because most of the signs in town are for candidates from the previous riding.

[starseed]

I think the Liberals were less vague about opposing a Niqab ban than the NDP. Some NDP members even spoke out against the party line.

What lost the NDP support was a multitude of things. There are federalists who voted NDP that will now vote squarely with the Liberals because of the clarity act issue. The Liberals also took a major lead in Ontario, which effectively made them the ABC vote. Trudeau led a positive and effective campaign, while it was clear that Mulcair (and Harper) expected him to be out of it by now.

Plus, it was clear that Mulcair's plan was better suited for a shorter campaign, as his platform is disjointed and doesnt have clear and realistic costing.

The Niqab is just an easy thing to point to, but it realistically only cost them a couple of points max. The combined NDP/Liberal support in the Nanos poll was 64.6%. The most recent Nanos poll has the combined vote at 60.9%. A drop for both parties of 3.7%. Most of the NDP support went to the also-anti-ban Liberals.

[Tiger]

even if polling is liberal now, we'll have to see if the conservative's riding alignments worked for them in the end.

[Nehkara]

Click to embiggen:



Seat ranges in the above predictions:

LIB: 127 to 142
CPC: 113 to 127
NDP: 70 to 81
BLQ: 0 to 19
GRN: 1 to 2

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

In my opinion, making an issue over the niqab is what cost the Conservatives the election. It didn't win them many new supporters who weren't already in their corner, but what it did accomplish was cause the NDP to lose ~20 points in Quebec. This, in turn, caused the NDP's national numbers to fall, and the Liberals emerged as the obvious ABC choice for strategic voters. Harper needed both the NDP and the Liberals to appear viable so there would be massive vote-splitting between the parties. Unless the Conservatives defy all the pollsters tomorrow, igniting the niqab debate will be remembered as a terrible own goal that led to their defeat.

Yup although I think the NDP campaign was spiralling into a hole a few weeks before that. That was just the final nail.

I guess looking back 50 years from now, the NDP did one good thing for Canada, killing off the Bloc in 2011. We can at least thank them for that.

[OffsideSpecialist]

nm

[DoubleK]

169 is magic number for a majority?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

169 is magic number for a majority?

But then you need to elect a speaker that will not bring your government down in a tie vote. So to guarantee it, you need 170.