Federal Election Polling Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Don't like 1 day polling... sample size is way to tiny. I mean I'd rather have it then not but I'd rather have it rolled into the three day to produce a larger sample.

Forum (for whatever that's worth... that firm has a lot of reputation to rebuild IMO) is out with their last poll as well... http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...-majority-seen

LPC: 40
CPC: 30
NDP: 20
Bloc: 6
GRN: 3

I agree that Forum has been way more "all over the place" than some of the others, but it's notable that all of the pollsters are more or less in line now.

A liberal majority would be a bit shocking though, given their inefficient vote distribution, plus the potential for "shy Tories" and the CPC GOTV operation. We shall see I guess.

[Caged Great]

I hope the Liberals get a strong majority (180+) just so that the other two have to clean house.

[FlamesAddiction]

I wonder how much Harper's crusade against the niqab actually pulled in support from the NDP to the Bloc (the other federal party pushing for a ban).

[JiriHrdina]

If Harper resigns who are the likely candidates to take over?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If Harper resigns who are the likely candidates to take over?

Doug Ford said he would take a run at it and seeing the events of the past week, it looks like he is trying to get into that crowd.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I wonder how much Harper's crusade against the niqab actually pulled in support from the NDP to the Bloc (the other federal party pushing for a ban).

In my opinion, making an issue over the niqab is what cost the Conservatives the election. It didn't win them many new supporters who weren't already in their corner, but what it did accomplish was cause the NDP to lose ~20 points in Quebec. This, in turn, caused the NDP's national numbers to fall, and the Liberals emerged as the obvious ABC choice for strategic voters. Harper needed both the NDP and the Liberals to appear viable so there would be massive vote-splitting between the parties. Unless the Conservatives defy all the pollsters tomorrow, igniting the niqab debate will be remembered as a terrible own goal that led to their defeat.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If Harper resigns who are the likely candidates to take over?

Kenney looks to be the heir apparent. Moore, Clement, Baird, and Mackay all likely to toss their names in.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If Harper resigns who are the likely candidates to take over?

Jason Kenney
Doug Ford
Brad Wall (he hasn't indicated any desire to run federally, but he's probably the CPC's best choice of returning to power)

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I agree that Forum has been way more "all over the place" than some of the others, but it's notable that all of the pollsters are more or less in line now.



A liberal majority would be a bit shocking though, given their inefficient vote distribution, plus the potential for "shy Tories" and the CPC GOTV operation. We shall see I guess.

I agree that a majority would be a surprise, it wouldn't be a shock. They could steamroll in Ontario.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I agree that a majority would be a surprise, it wouldn't be a shock. They could steamroll in Ontario.

If the Liberals win a majority (big if), their seat distribution will look something like this:

Atlantic: 25
Quebec: 30
Ontario: 85
MB/SK/AB: 12
BC: 15
Territories: 3

Definitely possible, but they'd need every break to go their way.

[killer_carlson]

I wonder if Rempel thinks about it as well.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

If the Liberals win a majority (big if), their seat distribution will look something like this:

Atlantic: 25
Quebec: 30
Ontario: 85
MB/SK/AB: 12
BC: 15
Territories: 3

Definitely possible, but they'd need every break to go their way.

I think a Liberal majority is a lot closer than "big if" now. The last polls show NDP support cratering and going directly to the Liberals. Once voters see the final numbers tomorrow before going to the polls, it will be crystal clear who the only ABH vote is and only the core NDP base will be left, which isn't much. I think that alone gives the Libs a majority regardless of what the conservatives get

[FlamesAddiction]

308 is showing that the Conservatives lead the Liberals in my riding by 0.1%. I am pretty sure that at the start, it was supposed to be a CPC cakewalk.

How reliable is that site?

[killer_carlson]

well, it called the last AB provincial election almost completely bang on.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

308 is showing that the Conservatives lead the Liberals in my riding by 0.1%. I am pretty sure that at the start, it was supposed to be a CPC cakewalk.

How reliable is that site?

For the most part, they don't make their predictions based on riding-specific polls. Instead, they have an algorithm that computes how your riding tends to vote in relation to the national average. So if the Conservatives are polling at 30% nationally, and your riding is 10% more Conservative than average, then it would calculate Conservative support in your riding at 40%. It's actually a bit more complex than that, but you get the gist.

In past federal and provincial elections, 308 usually predicts ~85% of ridings correctly.

[evman150]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

308 is showing that the Conservatives lead the Liberals in my riding by 0.1%. I am pretty sure that at the start, it was supposed to be a CPC cakewalk.

How reliable is that site?

On a riding by riding level, not very accurate at all.

For instance, it has Tom Mulcair losing Outremont, which is extremely unlikely.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

well, it called the last AB provincial election almost completely bang on.

Not bang on, but still pretty close:

Vote projection: 44.5% New Democrats, 25.9% Wildrose, 23.7% Progressive Conservatives, 3.2% Liberals
Vote result: 40.6% New Democrats, 27.8% Progressive Conservatives, 24.2% Wildrose, 4.2% Liberals
Error: 10.7 points, or 2.7% per party

The New Democrats and Wildrose were over-estimated, and the Tories under-estimated, but all of their results fell within the 95% confidence interval. Part of the reason for this was an adjustment made to the Liberals and Alberta Party, dropping their support to reflect their lack of candidates. This made the projection less accurate.

Seat projection: 55 New Democrats, 25 Wildrose, 6 Progressive Conservatives, 1 Alberta Party
Seat result: 54 New Democrats, 21 Wildrose, 10 Progressive Conservatives, 1 Liberal, 1 Alberta Party
Error: 10 seats, or 2.0 per party.
Riding projection accuracy: 86.2%
Projected seat range: 48-61 New Democrats, 17-31 Wildrose, 4-17 Progressive Conservatives, 0-1 Alberta Party
Seat range error: 1 seat, or 0.2 per party
Winners called in projected ranges: 93.1%

The seat projection model performed very well, identifying the correct winner in all but six ridings. Every party finished close to the average projection, while all but the Liberals fell within the likely ranges (and the Liberal result was within the 95% confidence interval).

http://www.threehundredeight.com/201...ck-record.html

[nik-]

Seems like the NDP are heading back to their historical position of irrelevancy. Nice campaign Tom.

[flylock shox]

I think the NDP were largely just a lifeboat for Liberals who fled their sinking ship in the last election.

With a new and apparently seaworthy red vessel, they're just heading home again. I'm not sure the NDP could have done much to prevent it without abandoning their principles entirely, or the Liberals scuttling their new ship through campaign error or the ineptitude of the captain.

Hoping for a strong Liberal minority tomorrow so we can have a bit of a feeling-out period with Trudeau Jr.

[White Out 403]

Were in for a Trudeau government no matter how you slice it. Conservatives, even under generous conditions, would at best get a minority government. The Liberals and NDP would defeat them in a no confidence vote and then we'd see Trudeau form government after some hurdles.