Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Where does it say there has been no discussion? On the contrary, Treliving also goes on to say that "we continue to work at it." It sounds to me like talks are ongoing in one form or another.


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Trev said nothing in that interview, really. As usual.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

haha what?

The Flames will sign that.

Pinder/Steinberg were saying yesterday that the Flames would probably even go as high as 12 to re-sign him because the alternative fallout is much worse.

Yeah I think the Flames are all about the now and not the future. Treliving won't be around for the back half of the deal to worry about any fallout.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I have it on good authority that Gaudreau's camp has countered today, however at closer to $11MM/year. That's all I will say.

Try and squeeze a little more out and get it done. Move Tkachuk to the highest bidder.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

It’s a business, you get paid based on results.

Sure it’s not your fault but you didn’t produce. Bye.

That's how bad businesses run things. With that type of blunt and simplistic decision making.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

So he essentially believes he can get 12.5M a season on the open market. If that's the case - good luck Johhny boy.

No, he believes he can get 10-10.5M on the Open Market, and he's right judging by Panarin's contract.

The overall value of the contract over 8 years can't just match the overall value of a 7 year deal. It has to beat it by, I'd guess, 75% of a season. Otherwise, you take the 7 years, and plan to sign another good deal at 36 years old, just like Letang did today. He'll probably get 8Mx5 at that point, with a presumably much higher cap 7 years from now.

[JohnnyB]

Johnny's my favorite Flame, but at $11M I'm not sure it's a great deal. If he can keep playing at the level he did this year for years into the future, it may be worth it, but I'm always skeptical about performance in contract seasons becoming the norm. I generally expect some regression. If he regresses, he's definitely not worth $11M.

[agulati]

It will be a free agent contract, but he is a free agent. Hopefully Tre can negotiate it to around 10.25/10.5, and we can have Gaudreau back. I don’t want to have to retire another jersey.

[the-rasta-masta]

Could be a shorter term too. Giving Johnny opportunity to show loyalty, with potential to sign a higher deal in a few years when cap goes up, with options at that time to head home or towards a place closer to winning if Flames aren't in the contending mix. Kind of makes sense for all sides actually.

[Major Major]

11 is a solid deal and about where I saw this was going. Any offer up to 12 is a serious offer from Gaudreau and if true I think it signifies he wants or is willing to stay. 8x11 is a win now and in the future.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I have it on good authority that Gaudreau's camp has countered today, however at closer to $11MM/year. That's all I will say.

Any kind of counter is good news.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Draug

No, he believes he can get 10-10.5M on the Open Market, and he's right judging by Panarin's contract.

The overall value of the contract over 8 years can't just match the overall value of a 7 year deal. It has to beat it by, I'd guess, 75% of a season. Otherwise, you take the 7 years, and plan to sign another good deal at 36 years old, just like Letang did today. He'll probably get 8Mx5 at that point, with a presumably much higher cap 7 years from now.

Letang's contract is very much an outlier. Most players, even good ones, don't get to 35. And when they do, they sign for <$3M or so. There's no one likely giving out a 5 year deal to Gaudreau at age 35. And if he's one of those exceptions, then he's just as likely to get a similar deal after only one more year of 10.5.

[Monahammer]

What pisses me off is this was a game of chicken. Old school negotiators are dumb as #### in my opinion. They've mutually sewered the teams ability to maneuver effectively.

The first offer wasn't enough.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

Could be a shorter term too. Giving Johnny opportunity to show loyalty, with potential to sign a higher deal in a few years when cap goes up, with options at that time to head home or towards a place closer to winning if Flames aren't in the contending mix. Kind of makes sense for all sides actually.

This off-season is his big pay day. Nobody is giving 31 YO Gaudreau more than $10 million.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Any kind of counter is good news.

Yup, means that he's willing to stay for a price. I'd go to 11, but I'd probably try 10.3 or 10.5 on first. Which is what they expect.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

oh no we won't be able to garth refrigerator during the 2028 offseason

Lol I'm trying to figure out what this means

[Leeman4Gilmour]

$11M would be a pretty fair counter offer. At 13.3% of the cap, that puts him in the top 15 players in the league. Right at Eichel, but below Marner. Way below Panarin. $10.5M would be a logical number to end up at. That's 12.7% and around Benn/Seguin. Above Kucherov though. Still, reasonable.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

"Easier said than done" is an understatement. Lanny's perspective is fine, but it's just as much a recipe for a perpetual bottom feeder to mid-pack and back team like Arizona as it is for a perennial contender team.

When you have good players on contract that indicate they're willing to stay, you keep them. When they put in career performances and you're at the top of the league, you go for it. If you're just constantly focused on shipping out top guys near the end of their contract and standing pat when your cards are looking good, you just as likely end up spinning your wheels.

Succession planning is what you do for when your top players are aging out. You back fill with draft picks and ship out deteriorating assets. Exposing Gio in the expansion draft was a perfect example of how to do this right. Succession planning isn't shipping out your prime-aged stars in your contention window.

And the line between 2nd round knockout and championship is extremely thin. Like 1-2 good moves, could bring in the missing pieces the Flames were missing. The championship teams always have a bunch of players they've drafted well, plus fill out the roster with great moves. The odds of all that coming together from a rebuild are very slim, hence why most teams end up spinning their wheels.

[Ashasx]

The one player who you might be able to sign to a 2-3 year deal is Tkachuk. Something like $10MM AAV for 3 years and then sets him up for something like 12x8 when he turns 28 and the cap goes up.

[blankall]

$10.5-11 should be something the Flames are all over. We're in a very rare scenario where the cap is stable, and inflation, generally is increasing. In 3 years when everyone is paying 30% more for tickets, hot dogs, beers, jerseys, and TV subscriptions and post-covid dampening, revenues will also increase and so will the cap. $10 million will be the new $7 million.

[Strange Brew]

I personally don’t believe Gaudreau is worth $11MM. There is however some benefit or signing a superstar for 8 years in terms of the message to the fans. Especially when you’re trying to get a new arena built.