2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Finger Cookin]

No deferred money it sounds like.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I’m in the minority, but it’s likely to be a bad contract. It should have been signed a long time ago at a better price but 14 years is guaranteed to age badly. Anyway, we’ll see in 6 years the same posters screaming why did they do this? Best case is it’s front loaded so it doesn’t hold them up too badly down the road if they need to cut him.

Of course it is a most likely a bad contract
But they have no choice. He sells tickets. It might be ok? Not really debate over bad. It just needs to be done? That's what I think

[Jiggy]

I like Vladdy but he's inconsistent and is now being paid like a super star. Hopefully he picks up his game after getting the contract he wanted. No more excuses.

[Jason14h]

With a 6% discount rate this contract is worth $330m in todays $$ (Assuming equal per year amounts which I am sure it wont be)

I don't think it's unreasonable to think Vlad brings in 10-15$million by himself in marketing and ticket sales a year.

It also shows the market the Jays are serious. They have tons of $$ coming off the books over the next two years, and effectively are starting a rebuild (retool) with Vlad

Will the contract be horrible once hes 32? 35? Well yes - Somewhere in there it becomes horrible but by then so much can change its a future problem for sure. And as we have seen any contract is tradeable if you eat contracts back or pay some of them.

If the Jays wanted to be serious in the AL East they couldn't let Vlad walk after missing on Ohtani and Soto. I think their plan was to let Vlad walk and build around those guys if possible, but its very evident a super duper star isn't coming to Toronto in FA

So the closest thing you get to a super duper star in TO in Vlad. He has had times when he is a super duper star. And time when he isn't.

Fingers crossed he has more of the former then the later over the next 6-7 years to make this contract worth it.

[bizaro86]

Clearly this will be a terrible deal by the end of it, but I agree it's one they probably had to sign. If they don't Shapiro/Atkins are probably out of a job, and if isn't their money...

Vlad could be a star for the first 8-9 years, which would make the last few more palatable. I think it shows they're serious, and it'll make the team better at least in the short run.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

They have tons of $$ coming off the books over the next two years, and effectively are starting a rebuild (retool) with Vlad.

Other than Springer most of that money is pitchers who will need to be replaced though. If they could find a young cost-controlled starter or two in the propsect base that would really help (eg what Manoah was that one year).

Vlad isn't even getting that big a raise ($35AAV from $28.5 this year) so this isn't a problem at all now. He's worth $35MM now easily, imo. The question is more how badly is the team handcuffed at the end, and how many years is the deal bad for.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Other than Springer most of that money is pitchers who will need to be replaced though. If they could find a young cost-controlled starter or two in the propsect base that would really help (eg what Manoah was that one year).

Vlad isn't even getting that big a raise ($35AAV from $28.5 this year) so this isn't a problem at all now. He's worth $35MM now easily, imo. The question is more how badly is the team handcuffed at the end, and how many years is the deal bad for.

Pitching is coming. Tiedeman, manoah will be back, Stephen... 2nd rnd pick had good 1st start, yesavage, including Francis, Rojas, maroudis, watts brown ... injuries last year have some faith

Watch these names... nimalla I think will be star bat

[Finger Cookin]

I guess part of the question becomes what has to happen with the team in the next 7-10 years for this contract to be viewed as a success? Is individual performance from Vlad enough - Silver Sluggers? MVP? Lead the league in any or all of HRs, RBIs, OPS, wAR? Or is anything less than a World Series championship for the team an indication that this contract is a failure?

[Inferno]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1909209407675654160

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Andrew

Of course it is a most likely a bad contract
But they have no choice. He sells tickets. It might be ok? Not really debate over bad. It just needs to be done? That's what I think

It also helps attract other players. We already saw a guy like Burnes get scared away because the uncertaintly around not having Guerrero and Bichette signed.

Now they have atleast one locked up that players know won't be going anywhere.

[Wastedyouth]

"This is a terrible deal because in a decade he might not be able to produce at that level".

A decade. From now.

Maybe the contract and the player isn't the problem. It's some fans wild expectations of contractual value 10 years from now.

There is just no pleasing some people.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

I guess part of the question becomes what has to happen with the team in the next 7-10 years for this contract to be viewed as a success? Is individual performance from Vlad enough - Silver Sluggers? MVP? Lead the league in any or all of HRs, RBIs, OPS, wAR? Or is anything less than a World Series championship for the team an indication that this contract is a failure?

I don't think you can say this individual contract is a failure if they don't win the WS - one player can't win a 26-person team game by himself.

I think he needs to be an all-star for 7-8 years, and be getting top-3 MVP finishes at least a few times for this to be worth it.

He's getting paid like a top-10 player, he needs to average top-10 WAR for at least the first half of the contract for this to be a success, imo.

[GirlySports]

I can tell you guys are hockey people, this is a perfectly fine baseball contract. Someone could sign for a billion in 10 years.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I can tell you guys are hockey people, this is a perfectly fine baseball contract. Someone could sign for a billion in 10 years.

I wonder whether that's true. The baseball national TV values keep increasing with competiton from streamers (and eg Apple TV). But many of the local RSN deals have gone bad as the networks went bankrupt.

You'll maybe always have a few owners willing to spend like crazy to win (eg Cohen) but we've seen teams like the Padres really stop signing FAs when their TV deal collapsed.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I like it. Unless the Jays draft superstars/stars they will have a very tough time attracting any to sign there. Especially if they do have good players and they just let walk, it won't be any more attractive to UFAs. Sign Vladdy, sign Bo, and go from there.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I wonder whether that's true. The baseball national TV values keep increasing with competiton from streamers (and eg Apple TV). But many of the local RSN deals have gone bad as the networks went bankrupt.

You'll maybe always have a few owners willing to spend like crazy to win (eg Cohen) but we've seen teams like the Padres really stop signing FAs when their TV deal collapsed.

I suspect more of these teams start having their own local streaming setups for their own games .

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

I guess part of the question becomes what has to happen with the team in the next 7-10 years for this contract to be viewed as a success? Is individual performance from Vlad enough - Silver Sluggers? MVP? Lead the league in any or all of HRs, RBIs, OPS, wAR? Or is anything less than a World Series championship for the team an indication that this contract is a failure?

1 WAR is generally valued at between 8-12 mil . If we take 10 mil for easy math he needs to generate 50 WAR over the rest of his career for this to be a fair contract

If we assume the last 6 years will be close to even, he needs 8 years at an average of 6 WAR

Seems about what to expect / what Jays would expect

Team success will hinge on if they can start developing their own talent over the next decade

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

1 WAR is generally valued at between 8-12 mil . If we take 10 mil for easy math he needs to generate 50 WAR over the rest of his career for this to be a fair contract

If we assume the last 6 years will be close to even, he needs 8 years at an average of 6 WAR

Seems about what to expect / what Jays would expect

Team success will hinge on if they can start developing their own talent over the next decade

I agree that's a good metric. 8 years of all-star production is what I said above, along with a few at close-to-mvp level. If they get 50 WAR from him over the contract I think it will be worth it, especially with the intangibles (came up in the system, fan favourite/Canadian citizen, shows other FAs you're serious, etc)

[Andrew]

How much does rogers make on bluejays? We dont have a good idea. Arguably have biggest market in sports? Mlb is high grossing. Tv revenue is hidden. Costs are lower owning the station streaming etc. They can afford this

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I suspect more of these teams start having their own local streaming setups for their own games .

I agree, but charging fans $15/month during baseball season is much, much worse than charging every household in the metro area $3/month year round, which is the deal they had previously with RSNs.

Local broadcasting won't go to zero but will decline for many teams. This might finally be a place where being "Canada's team" helps the Jays - Rogers wants Sportsnet to be national/year round, so they need summer content.