[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've always liked the Tarsenko deal adjusted for the extra RFA year.

8 years x 7.125M

Done

What's your process for calculating the UFA premium?

You also would want to adjust for inflation if you are trying to be objective.

[Erick Estrada]

I really, really hope the Flames put their feet down here and don't offer a penny over $7 million a season. I'm probably in the minority here but would be perfectly fine with him sitting out the entire season if it goes that far. This is a very big and influential contract negotiations and it's important that the Flames exercise the fact that they ultimately control the fate of the player here. If teams like the Flames start folding their cards for top RFA's it's going to weaken their foundation as they have several top 10 picks that will also require raises and the idea was that teams were to be able to take advantage of the RFA years to balance salaries of veteran players in their prime. If all these RFA's demand UFA money then the RFA period simply turns into early UFA payday with the asterisk of the player not being able to choose his team.

[wingmaker]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I really, really hope the Flames put their feet down here and don't offer a penny over $7 million a season. I'm probably in the minority here but would be perfectly fine with him sitting out the entire season if it goes that far. This is a very big and influential contract negotiations and it's important that the Flames exercise the fact that they ultimately control the fate of the player here. If teams like the Flames start folding their cards for top RFA's it's going to weaken their foundation as they have several top 10 picks that will also require raises and the idea was that teams were to be able to take advantage of the RFA years to balance salaries of veteran players in their prime. If all these RFA's demand UFA money then the RFA period simply turns into early UFA payday with the asterisk of the player not being able to choose his team.

I actually agree. I think people are overselling Johnny's bargaining power. While fans might be upset if Gaudreau sits out, they will still go to the games. The Flames will still play. They may not be as competitive, but they will still compete. Gaudreau only has one choice: sign or sit out. The Flames can play the whole season without him. Might not be ideal, but they can do it just fine.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Definitely curious to see what the final numbers work out to, but to me the following seems like a fair contract.

6.74 x 5 +8+9+10 = 7.59 AAV.

Keeps the Gio cap in place until his final year (a passing of the baton so to speak) and provides fair market value. I base my market value on who I would be willing to trade Gaudreau for:

Trade for:
Toews, Kane, Sid, Stamkos

Close: Tarasenko

Would not trade for: Forsberg, Marchand, RNH, Hall, Lucic, Eberle as examples in the $6M range.

From BTs standpoint he is a tough negotiator. I honestly thinks he waits this one out. Johnny's agent figures he will get the best deal last minute. If Brad gives into this, I believe this will have impacts on how future agents deal with BT. I would not be surprised if this goes a week or two into the season (much like the Doughty deal). This is an important season for the flames, but when it comes to a $60M+ deal of the most important player on the team, thy have to get it right.

Bridge his 1st 2 RFA years 3.5 x2 and if he carries the Flames to the SCF then you can pay him the league max match any offer sheet ....and still be under what you want to give a top player on a 26th place team.


I am pretty sure that LA would turn down Gaudreau and Hamilton for Doughty. Doughty has a cap hit of 7m

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So RFA rights (or even ELC contracts) should be meaningless? Should the Flames take all the risk that he won't in fact be an elite goal scorer (since there's only 2 years of history to go on)? Should he be paid more than Toews? Ovechkin? Getzlaf? He outscored all those guys last year.

If I'm in JG's camp, yeah.
I would want to be paid top dollar, and the risk (from the Flames) would be offset by a short contract.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...They can't afford to give everyone a keep them Happy bonus of 500K-1M like they did with Hamilton, Gio, Bouma, Stajan, Engelland, Brouwer, Frolik, Monahan and be a solid team. ie all these players are getting the top end of their range. Brodie is the only value contract.

I know this is hard for you, but these contracts were all UFA deals. Teams will always need to fill holes in the lineup with UFAs, and UFAs will always command a premium from the open market. You simply cannot continue to speak about RFA and UFA deals in a vacuum as if they are entirely interchangeable. They are not. They never will be.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Bridge his 1st 2 RFA years 3.5 x2 and if he carries the Flames to the SCF then you can pay him the league max match any offer sheet ....and still be under what you want to give a top player on a 26th place team.

I may be in the minority here, but while I hope for improvement, I don't think the flames window at a cup opens for at least 2 more years. Playoffs sure, but not competing for a cup.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

For people who have kids, do you think when Johnny finally signs you'll be happier than the day your kid was born?

It'll feel like Christmas for me and this thread can die off.

I am expecting my first kid any day now (due date was the 23rd). I am hoping the birth of my first child and the Johnny contract are done on the same day so I can be over the moon happy about both

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I am expecting my first kid any day now (due date was the 23rd). I am hoping the birth of my first child and the Johnny contract are done on the same day so I can be over the moon happy about both

Best of luck! We just had our first a few months ago. Be prepared to not sleep!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by wingmaker

^^ Don't agree with ricardow's assessment of players, but the Flames are looking at a difficult cap situation moving forward. They have banked heavily on defensemen being able to provide scoring as well as defence. Frolik and Brouwer are good additions, but they are sizeable cap numbers. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Whatever Gaudreau ends up being, the Flames need Bennett and Monahan to be high impact centres to have success. Full stop. Without that development, it doesn't matter how good Johnny is—the team will not succeed with all of its offence coming from one winger and its defence. This is why you can't pay Johnny more money than you have to. Treliving is likely signing his exit papers if Johnny makes much more than 7 million/year.

This is all true.

The reason the Flames are pushing so hard for a lower number is all about cap management, and shaping the landscape for future negotiations. But moreover, this is really a once-in-a-lifetime negotiation for the Flames in which they hold the lion's share of the leverage on a player who could be one of the best in the League in a short time. It's a tremendous opportunity to maximise value, and they would be utterly delinquent for not pursuing it.

This is not a simple question about what Gaudreau is "worth." This is about how much he can realistically expect to be paid in a poor negotiating position.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I am expecting my first kid any day now (due date was the 23rd). I am hoping the birth of my first child and the Johnny contract are done on the same day so I can be over the moon happy about both

Ha ha ha. Trust me Johnny's contract status is about to become secondary especially if you don't have the benefit of family to help you out over the first month. Congrats!

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's one guy, and he's basically being consistent with the Tarasenko/Ekblad deal. I don't necessarily disagree either.

No one has said $8M.

Did you even read that THN article that I linked??

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...deal-right-now

The title is:
Flames would be wise to ink Johnny Gaudreau to $8-million deal right now

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I am expecting my first kid any day now (due date was the 23rd). I am hoping the birth of my first child and the Johnny contract are done on the same day so I can be over the moon happy about both

The real question is will it be a 6.75 lb baby? 7.25? 7.5? or will it be an 8.0 lb baby?

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm probably in the minority here but would be perfectly fine with him sitting out the entire season if it goes that far.

In agreement except for this.

What some people are missing here is that once you cross that line you seldom can go back. The relationship is toast at that point, not only management but with his fellow teammates.

This is now into training camp and becoming a major distraction. Time to make your play and cut bait if necessary. You convey to the player that here is your final offer and you delineate why that is so, perhaps you even give the player an option.
1. Long Term - X on a 7/8 year deal
2. Short Term - X on 2/3 year bridge deal
3. You have played your last game and we are trading you, you will sit until we find the best deal no matter how long that takes.

Never negotiate with someone who is at home and affecting your business or team morale.

Letting him sit at home for a year and then thinking he comes back and repair the wound - that's asking for cancer to come out of remission - why?

[Flash Walken]

If you're ever going to stick to a hardline on a player now would be the season to do it.

The team can't be nearly as competitive as they'd like to be with all the bad salary on the roster, so it's not like you're wasting a year of having toews and kane and hossa under contract.

The long-term picture of the team looks bright but it honestly would not surprise me if the Flames were a bottom 10 team again this year, in which case, there's no urgency to get the gaudreau deal done to try and salvage some short-term success.

If you're sticking to a long-term plan on rebuilding and draft development it is not a hard sell in my mind to let Gaudreau sit out while you continue to go about the process of team building.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Did you even read that THN article that I linked??

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...deal-right-now

The title is:
Flames would be wise to ink Johnny Gaudreau to $8-million deal right now

This article has been posted before, and it has been correctly panned as sensationalistic. Ken Campbell makes only a passing reference to Gaudreau's unique position as a 10.2(c), and then sets all the risk in the Flames court for the "risk of alienating their top offensive player for what amounts to $12 million over eight years." The whole article is myopic, reactionary and premature.

[Red Menace]

I guess sensationalistic, myopic, reactionary and premature are all code for: disagrees with my position.

I think $8 is a bit too high for Gaudreau as well, but it is in the ballpark.
And my point was to show that yes there have been neutral observers who have said he is worth that much.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

In agreement except for this.

What some people are missing here is that once you cross that line you seldom can go back. The relationship is toast at that point, not only management but with his fellow teammates.

This is now into training camp and becoming a major distraction.

Is it? How can we know one way or the other without being there? Honestly, I think that the only distraction here is for fans and observers, and that on this side of the glass we have a tendency to inappropriately project those feelings onto the players in camp. I would be surprised if there is much thought given on a day-to-day basis within Flames training camp to whether or not Gaudreau has signed a contract.

Time to make your play and cut bait if necessary. You convey to the player that here is your final offer and you delineate why that is so, perhaps you even give the player an option.
1. Long Term - X on a 7/8 year deal
2. Short Term - X on 2/3 year bridge deal
3. You have played your last game and we are trading you, you will sit until we find the best deal no matter how long that takes...

I think this is premature and reactionary. The best play that Gaudreau has is to wait this out until opening night, and then to miss games if necessary. Flames management knows this, and they also clearly recognise that the closer this gets to him potentially missing games, the more motivated he is likely to be to sign. The "line in the sand" will come, but it probably will not happen until the eve of puck drop.

Letting him sit at home for a year and then thinking he comes back and repair the wound - that's asking for cancer to come out of remission - why?

That is probably true, but I honestly think it doesn't ever get anywhere near that point. Once Gaudreau has made the decision to forfeit the season, he is suddenly facing down a whole uncertain future for his hockey career. At that point he has lost a full year's salary, but moreover while he may not ever play another game for the Flames, he STILL has no real control over who his next potential employer will be, and no guarantee that another team will pay him the same contract that he missed a full season to receive. This is a nuclear option that I would be surprised to see him take.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is it? How can we know one way or the other without being there? Honestly, I think that the only distraction here is for fans and observers, and that on this side of the glass we have a tendency to inappropriately project those feelings onto the players in camp.

I would be surprised if there is much thought given on a day-to-day basis within Flames training camp to whether or not Gaudreau has signed a contract.

.

I agree during training camp, I doubt there is a distraction.

However when the season starts if Gaudreau is still a hold out.

It will be a distraction in my view, especially if the Flames start the season and are struggling.

I would predict the media will ask the players the same question over and over.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I guess sensationalistic, myopic, reactionary and premature are all code for: disagrees with my position.

I think $8 is a bit too high for Gaudreau as well, but it is in the ballpark.
And my point was to show that yes there have been neutral observers who have said he is worth that much.

I would be all over paying Johnny 8 bucks a game to play for the Flames.