[Poll Request] Monahan Off-Season Trade Value (or negative value)

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Worst answer ever. What was he doing on those goals? Can you name them?

I can tell you he wasn't scoring.

The guy is a defensive liability, he always has been but he made that up by scoring goals on the first line.

It's even worse when you realize that Monahan has 5 goals out of 8 on the powerplay.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...monahse01.html

Monahan has 55% offensive zone starts even strength

He is on the ice for 19 goals for vs 33 goals against even strength. Lucic is on the ice for 22 goals for vs 25 goals against even strength.

He's being paid 6.375$ million. Lucic is paid 6 million

Lucic is better value right now then Monahan

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Monahan's age is a big factor...Sam Bennett was also a bum on Calgary's 3rd and 4th lines. Not to say he is the same but some team might think there is more there.

The Flames won't be paying a first or even a 2nd just to get rid of him alone, he is more likely lumped into a bigger trade IMO. Other teams incentive will be to get the deal done. For a team not worried about the cap for next season he is a good pro.

I think this is the strongest point the Flames can cling to in marketing Monahan to other clubs.

"He's well on the road to recovery, been a great pro playing down our lineup, he's just not a great fit in our bottom 6 based on our roster composition. Not unlike Sam Bennett, who wasn't an ideal fit on our roster, but it's not a slight on someone who still has great potential to be a hell of a player..."

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I think this is the strongest point the Flames can cling to in marketing Monahan to other clubs.

"He's well on the road to recovery, been a great pro playing down our lineup, he's just not a great fit in our bottom 6 based on our roster composition. Not unlike Sam Bennett, who wasn't an ideal fit on our roster, but it's not a slight on someone who still has great potential to be a hell of a player..."

12 points and -14 in 38 games with the Flames last season
12 points in 52 games the season before

Now I'm not saying I want two seconds back lol but it might be enough to convince a team he is worth a shot. I would bet Monahan signs another NHL contract after this one, 32 teams these days...with a low cap hit teams would want him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I can tell you he wasn't scoring.

The guy is a defensive liability, he always has been but he made that up by scoring goals on the first line.

It's even worse when you realize that Monahan has 5 goals out of 8 on the powerplay.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...monahse01.html

Monahan has 55% offensive zone starts even strength

He is on the ice for 19 goals for vs 33 goals against even strength. Lucic is on the ice for 22 goals for vs 25 goals against even strength.

He's being paid 6.375$ million. Lucic is paid 6 million

Lucic is better value right now then Monahan

If you don’t want to answer my actual question just say so.

[Enoch Root]

In fairness, it was a terrible question - no one has film of every goal handy.

Can you show examples of him being good defensively?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

I'm not about to break it down, don't have the time or the desire, but on a team with a high amount of plus players I doubt Monahan is just insanely unlucky and stuck on the ice.

I think his hands/confidence is one of the bigger issues in his plus/minus because he and his linemates aren't finishing to the NHL expected finish rate based on what they generate.

That accounts for about 80% of his plus/minus woes.

The other 20% I would guess is more luck driven as he's giving up more actual goals than what the other team is generating.

Defensively he's not a black hole at all, he's at the top of the bottom third, but in a band of 8 players defensively between that have xGA60 between 2.25 and 2.34.

Overall he's a positive in play generation without finish.

Finish matters, but I thought I'd answer the luck question.

He's not good, but he's not as bad as his plus/minus suggests.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I would bet Monahan signs another NHL contract after this one, 32 teams these days...with a low cap hit teams would want him.

I’d wager his next deal will be one year and under $2 mil.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

I'm not about to break it down, don't have the time or the desire, but on a team with a high amount of plus players I doubt Monahan is just insanely unlucky and stuck on the ice.

Part of it is his own shot being gone, but a big part of it is him having no puck luck this season.

Look at the splits.

Monahan without Lewis: 54.4% xGF%, 5.21% On Ice Shooting, .915 save percentage

Monahan with Lewis: 42.3% xGF%, 3.33% On-Ice Shooting, .922 save percentage

Team without Monahan or Lewis: 58.4% xGF%, 9.4% On-Ice Shooting, .934 save percentage

So in terms of the xGF rate Monahan isn't that far off the pace from the rest of the team in his time away from Lewis. It's the finishing and save percentage that have been much worse with him on the ice. I don't see anything from monahan that indicates the save percentage should be so much worse with him on ice, and that shooting percentage is half of what it is when the rest of the team is on the ice.

You can argue if that is bad luck, or if that's being driven by Monahan, but the xGF and xGA rates don't indicate he is generating substantially fewer quality chances or giving up more high danger chances.

It's even more pronounced when you look at Dube and Monahan as a pair.

Dube+Monahan
TOI: 291 Minutes
xGF%: 59.6%
HDCF%: 65.3%
GF: 38.1% (8 - 13)
Shooting Percentage: 4.73%
On Ice Save Percentage: .908

59.6% xGF share, and 65% High Danger chance share is extremely strong. And it's crazy that they are shooting only 4.73% together in that time. If their on-ice shooting percentage was 8.3% (which is league average for 5v5 this year) that would mean they would have scored 14 goals at 5v5 instead of 8, and would be green on the ledger together.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Dube+Monahan
TOI: 291 Minutes
xGF%: 59.6%
HDCF%: 65.3%
GF: 38.1% (8 - 13)
Shooting Percentage: 4.73%
On Ice Save Percentage: .908

59.6% xGF share, and 65% High Danger chance share is extremely strong. And it's crazy that they are shooting only 4.73% together in that time. If their on-ice shooting percentage was 8.3% (which is league average for 5v5 this year) that would mean they would have scored 14 goals at 5v5 instead of 8, and would be green on the ledger together.

In that case, it might be worth trying Dube-Monahan-Eatbread as a line for a couple of games and seeing how that goes.

Jonny-Lindy-Chucky
Coleman-Backlund-Toffoli
Dube-Monahan-Eatbread
Lucic-Ruzicka/Richardson-Lewis

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

In that case, it might be worth trying Dube-Monahan-Eatbread as a line for a couple of games and seeing how that goes.

Jonny-Lindy-Chucky
Coleman-Backlund-Toffoli
Dube-Monahan-Eatbread
Lucic-Ruzicka/Richardson-Lewis

It's limited minutes but it's worked well when together.

TOI: 27:46
xGF: 71.6%
HDCF: 80%
Goals For: 3
Goals Against: 0
Shooting Percentage: 13.6%
SV%: 100.00

Honestly I wasn't really sure why Sutter gave up on that line after the first 2-3 games of the season because they actually looked good together. Big thing though is those minutes were highly sheltered at 80% offensive zone starts...hell it's working for Bennett and Huberdeau in Florida to be that sheltered though.

[GS Skier]

I know this place is very cliquey but I did in fact note in January 3 games into Rudzicka's start here that perhaps they were thinking replacement for Monahan and no one bit.

What do think now?

Also we devalue Monahans stock way too much. It ain't good but you listen to outsiders like Seravelli and he's viewed as a good project and a few teams like Buffalo and Ottawa amoung others are either weak at center now or could use a veteran center to help out with youth.

He isn't worth his salary however he does have value in a few places around the league that are far worse off at center than we are.

[SebC]

Goals don't count less because they're scored on the powerplay. Monahan's contributions on the powerplay are where much of where his remaining value lies, and that doesn't show up in the advanced/ES stats.

[The Yen Man]

My opinion is we keep him for the playoff run, and then trade him in the offseason. I still think Mony with $2M retained will fetch you something decent. I don't think Flames need to buy him out. Another team will take the gamble on him at $4M hoping he pulls a Bennett and has a resurgence with them. And if not, the risk isn't super high since he's UFA after next year anyways.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In fairness, it was a terrible question - no one has film of every goal handy.

Can you show examples of him being good defensively?

Sure, in the game before last he made a great stick lift and takeaway, stole the puck and started a play up ice. Hrudey mentioned it. He’s had a very good stick all year as far as deflecting passes and closing lanes goes.

My point is you can’t point to plus minus for a guy who, along with his linemate, has a very positive CF% accompanied by horrible shot percentage and say “that person is bad defensively”. Imagine if Monahan and Dube has even a normal shooting percentage. Those would be positive goals for, which immediately subtract from the goals against. Let’s say only 5 more goals each. That’s 10 off the minus and 10 onto the plus. All without changing a single defensive play.

In short, don’t show me plus minus, show me a series of bad defensive plays.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's limited minutes but it's worked well when together.

Honestly I wasn't really sure why Sutter gave up on that line after the first 2-3 games of the season because they actually looked good together. Big thing though is those minutes were highly sheltered at 80% offensive zone starts...hell it's working for Bennett and Huberdeau in Florida to be that sheltered though.

At the time there was no Toffoli to throw up with Backlund and Coleman. And he also likes a defensive forward on each line: Lindholm, Coleman/Backlund, Lewis and (at the time) Pitlick. And also the bottom line was no good and Sutter likes more balanced lines.

I actually think Toffoli and Backlund would be good together. Coleman can play any line IMO, and work well doing it. I think Coleman is going to score a bunch of greasy goals in the POs BTW.

[CalgaryFan1988]

While I'm not advocating we keep or trade Monahan, but does trading Monahan decrease the chances of re-signing Gaudreau (due to their friendship)?

Seems to me most think it increases the chances as they would have more cap room, but is it possible it would decrease the chances?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Sure, in the game before last he made a great stick lift and takeaway, stole the puck and started a play up ice. Hrudey mentioned it. He’s had a very good stick all year as far as deflecting passes and closing lanes goes.

My point is you can’t point to plus minus for a guy who, along with his linemate, has a very positive CF% accompanied by horrible shot percentage and say “that person is bad defensively”. Imagine if Monahan and Dube has even a normal shooting percentage. Those would be positive goals for, which immediately subtract from the goals against. Let’s say only 5 more goals each. That’s 10 off the minus and 10 onto the plus. All without changing a single defensive play.

In short, don’t show me plus minus, show me a series of bad defensive plays.

So you each had one example.

I am not a Monahan hater, I was just challenging your question to the other poster.

[Enoch Root]

I agree that Coleman could produce more, with more offensive line-mates, but I think he and Backlund are attached at the hip, because they are Sutter's checking line.

[Classic_Sniper]

I absolutely hate the idea of giving up assets just to remove salary, especially from a player I thought was guaranteed to be moved last offseason or even back in 2020. But it is what it is I guess, it’s Treliving’s mess to clean up now. If I had to make a decision, I’m probably in the buyout camp over giving up picks, but a 3rd is probably the most I’d be willing to part with. If a 3rd isn’t enough to remove his entire cap hit, then I’d say keep the 3rd buy him out.

Although that still hurts big time because you’d have to replace him with at the very least a league minimum player which would push his replacement to about $3M.

[EVERLAST]

No expert here but statistics show how good Sean has been this year on face-offs.....he's having a career year.

I didn't look but I'm sure no one else has higher numbers on the team.

Sutter and Treliving would have done something or will do something as the TDL approaches.

I'd honestly rather have Sean available for the playoffs ....i think we might see some things we've not anticipated from him.
I keep him because of this.

Good person, doesn't take selfish penalties , easy to coach, been a warrior that's produced good numbers in the past , makes smart plays .....oh and I don't have the time to hate anyone on this team from top to bottom.

Finger pointing haters looking for someone to blame are LOSERS.
Sean's busting his Ass trying to get back to where he was ....he's 27 and is more committed than most players I've ever watched .

There are other players in the league that have gone through exactly what Sean has and is going thru but bounced back.....minus half the injuries when you look back at all the surgeries he's had.

At least he's not a quitter....so he gets high points with me and this is my opinion alone.
Thanks for coming out ....hope you like the show.