Upcoming Mangiapane contract discussion

[Jimdon]

He hasn't done anything to deserve 6 mil a year yet, but are their any other comparable players that have the 5v5 numbers he has that get zero pp time?

If he gets the pp1 minutes he deserves next season and consistent linemates that aren't offensive black holes like backlund and Nordstrom his points are going to explode. I don't see signing an extension before next season being in his best interest at all.

I think the 'make him prove it first' crowd are going to.get exactly what they wish for.

[Jimdon]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Although an extremely subjective stat, thats great.

the game goes so much deeper than that though and he is NOT elite in any single area of it.

Great young player...with potential to be better. Thats it.

Other 6M players include Marchand, Scheifle, Larkin, Nelson, RNH, Zuccarello, Forsberg, Ehlers and on and on.

Come on.

How is 5v5 points extremely subjective? Those are the players that you need to win.

Being 14th in the NHL in even strength points us pretty close to elite and if you're going to point at the fact that Marchand and sheiffle make around 6 mil as the benchmark for that salary you're crazy. That's like saying Lindholm is the benchmark for guys making a shade under 5.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jimdon

He hasn't done anything to deserve 6 mil a year yet, but are their any other comparable players that have the 5v5 numbers he has that get zero pp time?

If he gets the pp1 minutes he deserves next season and consistent linemates that aren't offensive black holes like backlund and Nordstrom his points are going to explode. I don't see signing an extension before next season being in his best interest at all.

I think the 'make him prove it first' crowd are going to.get exactly what they wish for.

For me it depends on who moves out. I don’t see him moving up to the top pp unit if everyone is back next year

I also could see treliving adding a rw and not rebuilding at all

If Tkachuk or Johnny move out then yes wrap him up. But if they don’t I just don’t see him exploding next season

I also think 6 years 4.75 vs waiting for 6 x 6 is a risk for him too not just the team. Maybe he wants 5 but he might take the guaranteed $28 mil right away.

If he wants 6 you can’t do that and keep Tkachuk and Johnny. Way too much money at lw

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Can you tell me what is subjective about that stat?

Well from their own website...

"a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player,"

When you are attempting something, its is clearly non-definitive.

It can generalize areas, and it can point to liklihoods and possibilities/probabilities, but it is still leaves room for complete misses.

Im not having the fancy stats argument again though. Its been done a thousand times.

Hockey is played in a very fluid arena with variables of humans making different decisions and on a surface that is not constant. Trying to make it static with spread sheets just isnt something that will ever happen.

they have some value to see if what you are observing is backed up by all kinds of statistics or even close. It allows those who do this for a living to have some checks and balances against their own possible biases.

It is not anything more than that however.

Your stance on Mangiapane is a perfect example actually.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by keenan87

I mean, I know you are a huge Flames homer (hopefully you can control the bias to become a good reporter because I do think you have potential to be good) but give me a break.

Just wanted to return to this for a sec. I've done nothing but provide quantitative evidence in this thread, showing categories where Mangiapane has ranked among the league's best players over the last two seasons. These are statistics. These numbers are real. You can debate the merits of them if you want to, but they exist.

The response has been a lot of hand-waving and trying to explain away these numbers as not really indicative of reality. If anything, I'd say there's been a lot more jumping to conclusions on the side that doesn't think Mangiapane has earned a big contract. There's been a lot of bias and deference in favour of more commonly accepted stars and unfounded doubt cast upon a guy who, the stats indicate, is underrated in the hockey zeitgeist.

I'm using numbers to indicate my position. The responses have not featured anything even resembling reasoning beyond "come on" and "he is NOT elite" and "that stat is subjective" and he's only "decent." Based on what?

Anyway. I just wanted to defend myself a bit because I really don't think anything I've said has earned a weird slag against any aspirations I may have (which are almost entirely unrelated to this discussion). This is happening more and more and I'm tired of seeing it. You really don't know what I want to do with my life. Either way, right now, I'm primarily writing opinion columns — not reporting the news. But I think the stats Mangiapane has put forth are decidedly news-worthy, regardless.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jimdon

How is 5v5 points extremely subjective? Those are the players that you need to win.

Being 14th in the NHL in even strength points us pretty close to elite and if you're going to point at the fact that Marchand and sheiffle make around 6 mil as the benchmark for that salary you're crazy. That's like saying Lindholm is the benchmark for guys making a shade under 5.

Sorry i was referring to the "expected goals above replacement model" part of his statement.

ES pts are non subjective obviously.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Wait. Rip "New Era"?

I have to say, I think I’ve clicked on the “spoiler” tag in your signature far too many times, especially on short posts like this


As for Mang, I can’t see Brad pre-paying Ras then short paying Mangiapane.

He is in that 5 M ballpark with medium term for sure

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I have to say, I think I’ve clicked on the “spoiler” tag in your signature far too many times, especially on short posts like this

I agree, it sucks. Got rid of it.

Originally Posted by transplant99

Sorry i was referring to the "expected goals above replacement model" part of his statement.

ES pts are non subjective obviously.

Here are some more statistics that you might find non-subjective

(all even strength, via Nat Stat Trick)

Mangiapane's on-ice shot attempts %: 55.03%
On-ice shots %: 56.04%
Expected goals %: 58.56%
Goals for %: 56.36%
Scoring chances %: 55.98%
High-danger chance %: 58.78%

All while playing tough minutes on a shutdown line.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Seriously? You think Mangiapane is on the same level as Aho, Ovechkin, Draisaitl, Bergeron, and Tavares?

I mean, I know you are a huge Flames homer (hopefully you can control the bias to become a good reporter because I do think you have potential to be good) but give me a break.

He's not as flashy as those guys for sure but he's very much a very effective 200 foot player that drives play. And tends to do so no matter what line he has played on, or who he plays with.

Maybe you don't give him 6 x $6 right now, but Flames would smart to try to lock him up long term at a lower cap hit if they could.

And really the numbers are the numbers. You can argue it all you want but over the last two seasons he is in the top 30 in the NHL at producing primary points (goals + primary assists) at 5v5. That's not debatable, that's just a fact.

These are two different players, looking at both of them the summer they turned 25 years old.

Player A:

AHL - 113 GP
Goals-31, Points - 91, PPG - 0.81

NHL-218 GP
All Situations: Goals- 67, Points - 133, PPG- 0.61
5V5: Goals: 41, Points - 96, PPG - 0.44

Advanced 5V5:
-Goals per 60: 0.97
-Points per 60: 2.28
-Primary points per 60: 1.68
-Corsi For: 56.1%
-xGF%: 55.8%

Player B:

AHL - 120 GP:
Goals-50. Points - 109, PPG - 0.90

NHL- 178 GP
All Situations: Goals - 43. Points - 77, PPG - 0.43 PPG
5V5: Goals - 38, Points-68, PPG - 0.38 PPG

Advanced 5v5:
-Goals per 60: 1.13
-Points per 60: 2.02
-Primary Points per 60: 1.87
-Corsi For: 54.1%
-xGF%: 56.4%

Player A is Brad Marchand
Player B is Andrew Mangiapane

Marchand was slightly ahead of Mangiapane at this point of their careers, especially due to some more prolific special teams production. But at 5v5 the raw production is very similar, and if you look at the "per 60" numbers Mangiapane is slightly ahead.

Both were also analytics darlings that had great underlying stats that showed them as great play drivers, that maybe had some more untapped offensive upside. Plus they had very similar AHL careers as well.

These are two very similar forwards at the age of 25 years old. And at the time a lot of people would have said Marchand didn't fit on a list of the top forwards in the league, but he's just kept proving people wrong. Not saying that Mangiapane is going to turn out to be the next Brad Marchand, but people shouldn't be writing him off either, he's done nothing but keep proving people wrong since he was passed over in the draft his first year of eligibility.

[Heavy Jack]

Mangi signed a 2 year show-me bridge and in the first year here he saw no PP time until the very end of the season where he started to produce as well. He shattered his first year out of the park and now heads into this upcoming year in a really great place to cash-in. If he continues to chum it up with the 5 on 5 elites analytically but also adds another 15 to 20 PP points on the year which I think is highly possible (he reminds me of Cammy sometimes when he sets up for the off wing one timer) then he will for sure cash in and I’d say it would be damn near close to a 6x6 contract that’s being debated here. I think it would be wise to extend him to a 6 year long term deal right now, 6 x 4.85 much like Lindy’s and I think Mangi would happily do it.

[Jimdon]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Im not having the fancy stats argument again though. Its been done a thousand times.

Hockey is played in a very fluid arena with variables of humans making different decisions and on a surface that is not constant. Trying to make it static with spread sheets just isnt something that will ever happen.

they have some value to see if what you are observing is backed up by all kinds of statistics or even close. It allows those who do this for a living to have some checks and balances against their own possible biases.

It is not anything more than that however.

Your stance on Mangiapane is a perfect example actually.

My stance that he hasn't done anything to earn 6mil a year yet, but will flourish with better linrmates and pp time?

Everyone was crying that Bennett was a victim of circumstance because of his usage and now we have a guy who gets no freebees with ice time, usage, linemates and zero pp time and he is absolutely blossoming. I don't need a spreadsheet to explain that for me.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I agree, it sucks. Got rid of it.



Here are some more statistics that you might find non-subjective

(all even strength, via Nat Stat Trick)

Mangiapane's on-ice shot attempts %: 55.03%
On-ice shots %: 56.04%
Expected goals %: 58.56%
Goals for %: 56.36%
Scoring chances %: 55.98%
High-danger chance %: 58.78%

All while playing tough minutes on a shutdown line.

Scorp...i agree. All that stuff indicates good things. But in the NHL and particularly when it gets to contract time...its ALL about production. Its why IMO that goal scorers get far too much of the pie when other guys actually contribute more because of what they do in other aspects of the game. But, goal scoring is at a premium in this league now, so thats who gets the big bucks.

I would love for AM to earn a 6M dollar deal...honestly. It would mean he is a 60 pt 2 way guy who you should be able to lean on in all situations.

He isnt that guy. Not thus far anyhow. And if you give him the RNH deal and he stays closer to where he is at than where you think he will be...that hurts the Calgary Flames overall.

I think the Rasmus contract would be a great compromise actually.

[TheScorpion]

Evolving-Hockey's contract predictions model — which has been scary accurate in the past — has a Mangiapane RFA extension (signed this summer) plotted like so:

1 years — $3.842 million
2 years — $3.675 million
3 years — $3.902 million
4 years — $4.493 million (most likely — 35%)
5 years — $5.010 million
6 years — $5.474 million
7 years — $5.373 million
8 years — $6.290 million

Remember, a new deal almost exclusively eats UFA years.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I agree, it sucks. Got rid of it.

It made me laugh at myself more than once

[Jimdon]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Evolving-Hockey's contract predictions model — which has been scary accurate in the past — has a Mangiapane RFA extension (signed this summer) plotted like so:

1 years — $3.842 million
2 years — $3.675 million
3 years — $3.902 million
4 years — $4.493 million (most likely — 35%)
5 years — $5.010 million
6 years — $5.474 million
7 years — $5.373 million
8 years — $6.290 million

Remember, a new deal almost exclusively eats UFA years.

Those look like pretty reasonable numbers. If the Flames signed him for 4 x 4.5 that would be a great deal.

[Nsd1]

Just based on similar PPG over the last two seasons, 5/6 x $4.5 would put Mangiapane in line with guys like Alex Tuch, Kevin LeBanc, and Christian Dvorak.

[Groot]

4.85 x 6

Matches the contract Lindholm got.

[doncherry]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I have to say, I think I’ve clicked on the “spoiler” tag in your signature far too many times, especially on short posts like this

Not complaining, but me too, had to hit it every time, it was like there might be something new there...

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well from their own website...

"a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player,"

When you are attempting something, its is clearly non-definitive.

It can generalize areas, and it can point to liklihoods and possibilities/probabilities, but it is still leaves room for complete misses.

Im not having the fancy stats argument again though. Its been done a thousand times.

Hockey is played in a very fluid arena with variables of humans making different decisions and on a surface that is not constant. Trying to make it static with spread sheets just isnt something that will ever happen.

they have some value to see if what you are observing is backed up by all kinds of statistics or even close. It allows those who do this for a living to have some checks and balances against their own possible biases.

It is not anything more than that however.

Your stance on Mangiapane is a perfect example actually.

And all those other guys mentioned have had big seasons in the past to earn those contract, plus they play a pretty regular basis against other teams top defence and checking lines. Mang has played mostly 3rd line opponents and some 2nd line. I love his work ethic and really hope he signs for $4.5 or less like Iafallo did.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Just wanted to return to this for a sec. I've done nothing but provide quantitative evidence in this thread, showing categories where Mangiapane has ranked among the league's best players over the last two seasons. These are statistics. These numbers are real. You can debate the merits of them if you want to, but they exist.

The response has been a lot of hand-waving and trying to explain away these numbers as not really indicative of reality. If anything, I'd say there's been a lot more jumping to conclusions on the side that doesn't think Mangiapane has earned a big contract. There's been a lot of bias and deference in favour of more commonly accepted stars and unfounded doubt cast upon a guy who, the stats indicate, is underrated in the hockey zeitgeist.

I'm using numbers to indicate my position. The responses have not featured anything even resembling reasoning beyond "come on" and "he is NOT elite" and "that stat is subjective" and he's only "decent." Based on what?

Anyway. I just wanted to defend myself a bit because I really don't think anything I've said has earned a weird slag against any aspirations I may have (which are almost entirely unrelated to this discussion). This is happening more and more and I'm tired of seeing it. You really don't know what I want to do with my life. Either way, right now, I'm primarily writing opinion columns — not reporting the news. But I think the stats Mangiapane has put forth are decidedly news-worthy, regardless.

Having strong opinions that you can defend is a pretty good approach to doing well in the media game.
So carry on with what you are doing.