Bad Goaltending vs Bad D

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

I would supplement charts and advanced stats with what i actually see in a live game. To strictly base your judgement 100% off of a chart is a little judge book by the cover. We must be watching different hockey games because i see poor goaltending and defensive breakdowns and poor coverage when i watch most of the games.

But how do you usefully compare the poor coverage with other teams' coverage? Every team makes a few mistakes a game.

How do you separate the bias of overweighing a "defensive breakdown that ends up in the back of the net" with a "defensive breakdown that the goalie stopped"?

You can't deny you have biases that affect your perception. We all do.

The data does not have biases. The data is not perfect. The charts aren't a complete story.

They especially won't tell you about things like screens, backdoor opportunities, context (breakaways / forechecking turnovers, deflections) but they do tell you a lot about what's happening without the bias of projecting one poor defensive play onto every goal/chance against.

On the flip side, your biases won't always tell you when the goaltenders have been making an excess of great saves while the defense has been a technical mess. The data though? It will tell you that last March, goaltending is what got us into the playoffs and Russell-Wideman were a horrible pairing.

If the Flames have 82.9% of the highest quality chances against as the average hockey team, and the best save percentage team in the league has 88.5% of the highest quality chances as the average team, that means the Flames have been doing something right.

I mean, this is the shot chart of the Senators:



The shot chart tells you what the great save percentages mask.

[Alberta_Beef]

I don't buy that the defense is better this year than last year. How to they calculate a "high danger scoring chance"? I assume based on the charts provided that it is based on the location on the ice in which they are scored? If that is correct they do not account for defensive breakdowns or giveaways, which is where 99% of the defensive problems lie this year. Another thing it would not account for is who is making the mistakes. Last year it was Engelland/Smid to start the year that were giving up the opportunities, this year it's the top 4; which translates to better players getting the opportunity to capitalize on mistakes.

[Caged Great]

Part of the problem with the poor defense, it is difficult that any time you make a mistake that it ends up in your net. Sometimes you need to be picked up after an error, but nobody is getting any help. That hurts confidence and makes you grip the stick a little harder, which leads to more mistakes and it's a never ending cycle.

If Calgary was getting even partially competent goaltending, I believe the team would be playing more like the Penguins game through the past month instead of what has transpired. Unfortunately, a quarter of the season will be completed this weekend and I doubt the Flames get more than a point or two over the next few days considering their competition. Having 12-13 points through 20 games when you need 24 or so in each segment to make the playoffs means that it'll be over pretty much unless they win all three games.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by heep223

The conclusion from the scoring chance data in OP is that the Flames D are doing a better job than last season at limiting dangerous chances, but the puck is in the net almost twice as much.

How anyone can try to point to the D more than the goaltending as the issue, after seeing that data, is beyond me.

Defense middle of the pack across many advanced stats. I would agree.

Goaltending and PPT/SH goal differential are the real culprits.

[calgarygeologist]

Our goaltending has been terrible but it is also being exploited a lot more this than last year. Someone can pull up the numbers but it seems like the Flames this year are way down in the shot blocking numbers. The goalies are seeing more shots are obviously can't stop them. The Flames are allowing over 3 shots more per game this year.

[madmike]

The issue with the D, recently at least, is it's the guys who played effectively last year who now look like garbage.

Giordano has been pretty awful. Russell and Wideman have both been brutal.

Hamilton was a problem early in the season, but he's looked fine on the 3rd pairing. Even Engellund at this point looks better than Russell and Wideman - arguably even Giordano.

[Armchair Quarterback]

Came to this thread expecting a more polemical tone, but the analysis is interesting and helpful (thanks OP). IMO it is a case of both poor goaltending and poor defensive play. I wonder if we could also have an analysis of hits this year vs. last year? Also, it isn't just dangerous shots/scoring chances we should be comparing, but things like outlet passing, back checking, etc. The Flames really have done a poor job this year of protecting the puck defensively and clearing it out of the zone, which leads to goals for opposing teams.

To be clear I am not defending our terrible goaltending, which has led to at least 2 soft goals per game, sometimes more.

Reason I am interested in how many hits the Flames deal out per game is that we seem to be pillowy soft this season compared to last one. Including in front of the net. As much as Ramo sucks, it is absolutely unacceptable, for example, to have two or three Florida players hammering away at the puck in the crease with just Ramo there to keep the puck out. Those forwards should be hit immediately and cleared out of the crease.

[Bingo]

The other part of the problem is trust.

I see it coaching kids all the time. If one part of your team is weak, other players start trying to do too much to cover up for them leaving the plague to devour the rest of your team.

I've seen it with bad goaltending, I've seen it with bad defense (forwards move back too much to help leaving points open), and I've seen it with anemic forwards (defense take too many chances jumping up).

So the goaltending has been bad, and I think the defense tends to do the wrong thing trying to mask that deficiency adding to the problem.

Either way I'm adding a poll

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Thanks to the OP with GEV support as well....I was of the opinion the goaltending was making our defense look bad (general unpredictability with that position to date creating uncertainty and trust issues as Bingo suggests) and this information does support that...100% goaltending for me.

[CroFlames]

I don't really have anything to add to this discussion since I heartily agree with the OP and the general opinion here. Especially Bingo's post about how one weak area of your team system can negatively affect other parts of the team who try to overcompensate.

The Flames signed a new G today. Hopefully he's the new Kipper in the rough.

[Ruttiger]

Welcome to Edmonton circa 2009 - ??? Enjoy the view.

[automaton 3]

Too many soft goals. Hurts you on the scoreboard plus the team no longer trusts and tightens up.

[rehsifylf]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

It's Ramo's fault that one of the most prolific goal scorers ever was left standing alone in front of the Flames net last night?

Admittedly, I don't watch every Flames game but the games I have watched the Flames defensive posture is brutal. It seems like every goal comes off a bad turn-over. It's hard to pin that all on a goalie.

Gretzky played last night?

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[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by rehsifylf

Gretzky played last night?

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In fairness, he said "ONE OF"

Jagr is 5th in all time goals and will become 4th in a matter of days.

[troutman]

20/80

These goalies were more than adequate last year. They didn't forget how to play over the summer.

[GioforPM]

My two cents (CDN):

The defence has not been up to par compared with last year, especially Gio and Russell, since Wideman's defensive game was never his strong point and I actually think he's been about the same in that regard this year - it's his offense that's fallen a bit.

But the big problem is the goaltending. As many have said, every goalie lets in a softie once in a while, from Roy and Hasek to Kipper to Price. But it's been happening every game. And when this happens, the Flames fall behind, have to take more offensive chances, the D press forward, and there are more chances coming back as a result.

Lots of goals have come from the high slot. That's a result of a missed play on D many times, but its also a shot most goalies block. Hiller was no joy when he was in net, but perhaps his blocking style is better suited to make that play.

The fact the Flames have actually been in many games until the third supports this view.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by troutman

20/80

These goalies were more than adequate last year. They didn't forget how to play over the summer.

Why can't the same argument be made about the defence? The only different player is Hamilton and he's replacing Schlemko/Diaz/Smid.

[Jason14h]

These goalies were more than adequate last year. They didn't forget how to play over the summer.

Both have huge holes in their games. Opposition seems to be exploiting those holes now. This has caused both to loose confidence and/or try to compensate for these weaknesses and completely screw up their styles.

[rehsifylf]

Ok. Someone suggested a poll . . How about stars of the game.

So far this year, Ramo was 2nd star one time and Hiller and Ortio have not been named a star.

But wait you say. Hard for a goalie to be a star when the team is losing. Right? How about Anaheim. Frederick Andersen - 1st star once, second star once, 3rd star three times. The other Anaheim Goalie, first star once, second star once.

How about the rest of the goalies? Arizona - 3 (all first star) , Boston - 2, Buffalo. - 2 (with no starter), Carolina - 3, Chicago - 6, Columbus - 5, Colorado - 5, Dallas - 4, Detroit - 7, Edmonton - 5, Florida - 4, LA - 7, Minnesota - 3, Montreal - 10, NJ - 3, Nashville. - 6, NYI - 2, NYR - 13(King Henry has 10!), Ottawa - 3, Philadelphia - 5, Pittsburgh - 6, SJ - 4, St Louis - 5, Tampa Bay - 5 (each of three goalies had been a star), Toronto - 3, Vancouver - 4, Washington - 7, Winnipeg - 5.

Yup. Dead last. So seems like noone feels our goaltending is good.

To be fair Wideman, Brodie, and Gio have only been stars once (Brodie has only played a few games). No one on the Flames has been a star more than twice. Only one other team has that honour - Toronto. Two other teams have three. The rest of teams have players that have been named four or more times.

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[troutman]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Why can't the same argument be made about the defence? The only different player is Hamilton and he's replacing Schlemko/Diaz/Smid.

It is far more likely there is something wrong with 18 people, than 1. More variables with the team than the individual.

In general, I would say all goalie stats are 20/80 (the team factor being the most important).