And it's not like we're reaching here and putting some long shot prospects ahead of these guys.
4 of the top 10 are 1st round picks
2 of the top 10 are 2nd round picks
2 of the top 10 are 3rd round picks
One being Gillies, named top NCAA goalie
One being Hickey, invited to Team Canada
1 of the top 10 is a 5th rounder in Ferland, who destroyed an entire NHL team
1 of the top 10 is a 6th rounder in Ortio, who many believe is our future #1
Still leaves
Hunter smith - 2nd
Mason Macdonald - 2nd
Tyler Wotherspoon - 2nd
Rasmus Andersson - 2nd
Pat Seiloff - 2nd
Kenny Morrisson - Highly touted UFA dman
The top 15 is really stacked and this is not even taking guys like Agostino, Arnold, Rafikov, Kulak and Culkin who quite a few a really high on.
It's a total transformation.
How many other teams will have a 2015 late 2nd round pick in their top 10 prospects?
I think that after having the worst prospects in the league for years Flames fans are over-reacting to getting back to a normal prospect pool.
A lot of the Flames prospects have NHL exposure ... because the Flames had such a weak NHL team. For a long stretch..... the Iginla (from 2004-2013) the team lineup was basically set by one-way NHL contracts. Remember Kennan playing best d-man prospect in the organization Ranbolt for 11 seconds? and that was his NHL career.
The AHL team was full of young prospects..... as are almost all AHL teams in today cap world. Our prospects that we are rating so highly finished comfortably out of the playoffs.
Calder cup winning roster had Manchester had 19 out of 27 with 1990 or later birthdays. Utica had 22 out of 31. The Flames were about the same with 11 older guys on their roster over the season.
The Flames have great prospects both Quality and Quantity compared to the Flame prospect pool of 5 years ago but last year I expected Adirondack to comfortably make the playoffs with all these great prospects that were really close to making the NHL.
Voted Spoon, though I think it's last chance to dance trance for him this season. The door is wide open -- he's competing with Engelland for #6 assuming the roster stays the same as it is now. Obviously Engelland brings things he doesn't, but Spoon has a higher upside and should force his way in.
Seems to me a lot of prospects fail at the last step, which is "forcing someone else out of a job". See: Baertschi. Spoon is risking failing at this step too -- I'd like to see some killer instinct for the position.
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The AHL team was full of young prospects..... as are almost all AHL teams in today cap world. Our prospects that we are rating so highly finished comfortably out of the playoffs.
Did some quick digging and it looks like AHL hockey teams are generally around 24.5 in average years.
I know both the Canucks and Oilers teams were older.
I did a quick look at the ice time for all three teams and the their "cores" were significantly older (especially the Oilers) (don't have the numbers in front of me though, as that was a while back)
The Flames key returnees from last season (Elson, Agostino, Poirier, Granlund, Wolf, Arnold, Hathaway, Kulak, Culkin, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Morrison) average 22.6 in age, and the team is about to get a shot of younguns with Carroll, Kanzig, Smith, Klimchuk and Gillies. That's 17 players averaging 21.9 in age.
So unless the whole leagues is trending down in age, or the Flames plan to fill in the team with 6 33 year olds I think the Flames are on the younger end of the spectrum.
How many other teams will have a 2015 late 2nd round pick in their top 10 prospects?
I think that after having the worst prospects in the league for years Flames fans are over-reacting to getting back to a normal prospect pool.
A lot of the Flames prospects have NHL exposure ... because the Flames had such a weak NHL team. For a long stretch..... the Iginla (from 2004-2013) the team lineup was basically set by one-way NHL contracts. Remember Kennan playing best d-man prospect in the organization Ranbolt for 11 seconds? and that was his NHL career.
The AHL team was full of young prospects..... as are almost all AHL teams in today cap world. Our prospects that we are rating so highly finished comfortably out of the playoffs.
Calder cup winning roster had Manchester had 19 out of 27 with 1990 or later birthdays. Utica had 22 out of 31. The Flames were about the same with 11 older guys on their roster over the season.
The Flames have great prospects both Quality and Quantity compared to the Flame prospect pool of 5 years ago but last year I expected Adirondack to comfortably make the playoffs with all these great prospects that were really close to making the NHL.
I'm sure lots of teams will have 2nd rounders in their top 10. For us most of our 2nds will be outside the top 10.
I'm not comparing our pool to other teams, I'm comparing it to what it used to be and how far its come.
Of course only some of these guys will become regulars for the Flames, it's just not statically possible for them to all have success at the NHL level with the Flames.
I'm 7 for 10 through 10 rounds, but looking like I'm out on this one sending me to 7/11
I'm 9 for 10 so far, and looking like I'll be 10 for 11 after this round. I'm just not really sold on Kylington. He could skyrocket up my rankings by this time next season and make me look dumb, but I really need to see a good year out of him before I start coming around.
Voted Arnold last round, switched to Wotherspoon. He could easily get bumped by Morrison, Culkin, or Kulak depending on how this year goes. He's still our best defensive prospect, but I have a feeling he's going to fall in the chart this year.
However, I'm ranking for today, not for my future predictions.
The AHL team was full of young prospects..... as are almost all AHL teams in today cap world. Our prospects that we are rating so highly finished comfortably out of the playoffs.
Goaltender points pace:
Ortio - 93 (could have been the fifth seed in the playoffs if he played every game)
Thiessen - 62 (could have finished second last in the league if he played every game)
Carr - 86 (he didn't really play a whole lot, 5th stringer in the system)
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Tough one for me. I hate not picking Arnold - he is going to be an 'elite' 4th line center (if there is such a thing). He is going to really round out the center depth very nicely and I think he will be a key cog for the Flames for years to come - but is still a depth guy.
Wotherspoon is definitely worthy of getting chosen here (and arguably, a few rounds before). Just think his upside is a good #4 D, and he seems to be on the cusp of making the team.
MacDonald - he has done absolutely nothing except to show that he is deserving of being a top 10 prospect. Has starter potential.
I went with Andersson here. His potential is a #2 defencemen I think. When the Flames get him into proper shape, I really do think he is going to be a good one, and will be playing in all situations.
So many really good prospects left that I think will go on to have NHL careers aside from the ones mentioned. Smith and Carrol I think will be players on the Flames within the next 2-3 years, and will make this team so much more difficult to play against, and will provide decent depth scoring too.
Thing with Arnold though, centers are pretty much our last need in the near future. Just generally speaking we have an abundance of depth forwards. That's why I'm inclined to put defensemen first at this point. Our defensive group looks like it could get expensive fast, and affordable replacement will be needed.
I voted AC, and I'm not talking about CP's pride and joy AC, but Austin Carroll. I think he has a ton of potential. Maybe he can top out as a Troy Brouwer type, big RW with decent scoring ability.
Went with McDonald. I would never trade him for Wotherspoon.
Andersson was a very close 2nd.
That's the way I look at it as well. Also, Wotherspoon, if he even reaches his potential, is unlikely to be even a top 4 dman IMO. He's a classic low ceiling, low risk player... the definition of dime a dozen. Personally I see him as a decent depth defensemen who will play a lot of years in the league for a lot of different teams... nothing special, but useful. With McDonald, you're talking about bonafide starter potential, which is considerably more valuable than a depth defenseman. I suppose if you see something more in Wotherspoon, that's a different story... I just don't see it.
Personally, I think the whole argument of "he's closer to the NHL, he's played more pro games, etc" has muddled the debate. To me, I couldn't care less that Granlund and Wotherspoon have played in the NHL, or "are closer" when it appears they have middling potential compared to many of the others on the original list. So they are older, and thus have had the opportunity to establish themselves sooner than 18 and 19 year olds... well, whoop dee doo, that's quite the achievement. Someone has to be older, it doesn't mean anything.
That's the way I look at it as well. Also, Wotherspoon, if he even reaches his potential, is unlikely to be even a top 4 dman IMO. He's a classic low ceiling, low risk player... the definition of dime a dozen. Personally I see him as a decent depth defensemen who will play a lot of years in the league for a lot of different teams... nothing special, but useful. With McDonald, you're talking about bonafide starter potential, which is considerably more valuable than a depth defenseman. I suppose if you see something more in Wotherspoon, that's a different story... I just don't see it.
Personally, I think the whole argument of "he's closer to the NHL, he's played more pro games, etc" has muddled the debate. To me, I couldn't care less that Granlund and Wotherspoon have played in the NHL, or "are closer" when it appears they have middling potential compared to many of the others on the original list. So they are older, and thus have had the opportunity to establish themselves sooner than 18 and 19 year olds... well, whoop dee doo, that's quite the achievement. Someone has to be older, it doesn't mean anything.
It does mean something though, especially when comparing them to some of the higher risk prospects. It's true that they've had more time to establish themselves, but the key is that they've progressed throughout that time. A lot of guys don't. Potential is only part of the equation. The European leagues are riddled with guys that were drafted for potential but never showed the progression needed to be NHL'ers.
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