Article: The Rebuild Begins. With That, A New Hope

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by FacePaint

I appreciate your input and this actually makes these dark days somewhat interesting. I will continue with the devils advocate... The Flames draft Wootherspoon in the 2nd round (12) followed by Barkov (eg) the next year. In `15... Etc, etc...

This could get really bad, agree? If this draft is Oilers of '06... It could get real ugly

Well, the Flames drafting seems vastly improved over the past two years.

in 11' we drafted

Sven Baertschi - Obviously skilled

Markus Granlund - 4th in the SM-Liiga in points behind only Barkov, Armia, and Teravainen. Seems to be quite skilled as well.

Tyler Wotherspoon - 37 points and a +62 as a D-man and a PPG guy in the playoffs for Winterhawks. Seems like he's doing a good job.

John Gaudreau - Looking more and more like a Daniel Briere/Martin St. Louis upside type of player.

Laurent Brossoit - A decent goalie who's been one of the better goalies in the WHL. As good of potential that you could hope for with a 6th round pick.

We might end up getting 5 NHL players in 5 picks with Brossoit seeming the most likely to not make it.

in 2012

Jankowski - A 6-4 center that has above average playmaking skills and is quick for a player of that size. Pretty good.

Sieloff - A defensive banger type. Has been decent this year. Has battled some injuries.

Gillies - The best freshman goalie in the NCAA and in the conversation for best goalie in the NCAA.

Brett Kulak - 44 points as a defenseman.
Ryan Culkin - 45 points as a D-man. Both these guys are Brodie types as they were drafted due to having high offensive instincts. If they can learn the defensive side of the game, they could be excellent 2nd pairing guys or better.

Coda Gordon - 59 points - my least favourite pick of the bunch. He seems to be a possible 3rd/4th line guy maybe. Don't really see him amounting to much

Matt DeBlouw - 21 pts in 42 games in the NCAA. Not bad for a first year player. He's more of a defensive forward and a possible decent 3rd/4th liner possibly in the future.


Between all of those guys, there are only a couple of players that are definitely on the weak side in terms of potential in Gordon and maybe Deblouw, but the rest show NHL potential in some form or another.

With this draft being quite good, with multiple good options with each of the top 3 picks and beyond, I think it would be difficult to screw it up (famous last words I know).

[FacePaint]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The Isles drafted Okposo and Andrew Macdonald in 06, Hamonic, Martin, and Bailey in 08, Tavares and Cizikas in 09, and nothing else really to show in 10, 11 or 12 in the NHL.

They are doing slightly better now though due to having both Tavares being awesome and having some character guys in Martin and Cizikas as well as a solid top 4 of Streit Hamonic Vishnovsky and MacDonald.

The Flames drafted Monahan and fluke R6 pick In 13, then a great #1 pick in 16. Will we be comparative earlier than 4 years from now?

[FacePaint]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Well, the Flames drafting seems vastly improved over the past two years.

in 11' we drafted

Sven Baertschi - Obviously skilled- Tim Erixon, Greg Nemisz

Markus Granlund - 4th in the SM-Liiga in points behind only Barkov, Armia, and Teravainen. Seems to be quite skilled as well. - Mitch Wahl

Tyler Wotherspoon - 37 points and a +62 as a D-man and a PPG guy in the playoffs for Winterhawks. Seems like he's doing a good job.- John Negrin

John Gaudreau - Looking more and more like a Daniel Briere/Martin St. Louis upside type of player. - Bjorgland, Larson

Laurent Brossoit - A decent goalie who's been one of the better goalies in the WHL. As good of potential that you could hope for with a 6th round pick. - Ortio/Irving


We might end up getting 5 NHL players in 5 picks with Brossoit seeming the most likely to not make it.

in 2012

Jankowski - A 6-4 center that has above average playmaking skills and is quick for a player of that size. Pretty good. - Jessiman?

Sieloff - A defensive banger type. Has been decent this year. Has battled some injuries. Gauthier?

Gillies - The best freshman goalie in the NCAA and in the conversation for best goalie in the NCAA. - too tired

Brett Kulak - 44 points as a defenseman. - Ramholt
Ryan Culkin - 45 points as a D-man. Both these guys are Brodie types as they were drafted due to having high offensive instincts. If they can learn the defensive side of the game, they could be excellent 2nd pairing guys or better. - Ramholt 2

Coda Gordon - 59 points - my least favourite pick of the bunch. He seems to be a possible 3rd/4th line guy maybe. Don't really see him amounting to much- OK

Matt DeBlouw - 21 pts in 42 games in the NCAA. Not bad for a first year player. He's more of a defensive forward and a possible decent 3rd/4th liner possibly in the future.
- Begin?

Between all of those guys, there are only a couple of players that are definitely on the weak side in terms of potential in Gordon and maybe Deblouw, but the rest show NHL potential in some form or another.

With this draft being quite good, with multiple good options with each of the top 3 picks and beyond, I think it would be difficult to screw it up (famous last words I know).

Fair enough but maybe things have changed? Maybe we see same stuff again?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

If we're going to truly rebuild then I think we need to coax some of these scouts from teams with excellent draft records to join the organisation. I like Weisbrod, but he's not really a hockey guy & he's rolling with a Moneyball-style stats-based philosophy, which works to a certain extent but I'm not sold on it. We need hockey minds to compliment the stats & legal minds that are running the team. Otherwise we waste this opportunity with bad picks and even worse asset management.

Not sure where you get this idea from. Weisbrod is definitely a hockey guy. Former player and watches hockey for a living. Scouts players with his own eyes.

Chris Snow is the guy in the Flames organization who is the statistical, moneyball type guy who doesn't have a big hockey background.

Maybe you are getting them mixed up?

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not sure where you get this idea from. Weisbrod is definitely a hockey guy. Former player and watches hockey for a living. Scouts players with his own eyes.

Chris Snow is the guy in the Flames organization who is the statistical, moneyball type guy who doesn't have a big hockey background.

Maybe you are getting them mixed up?

You are correct. Weisbrod played for Harvard, where he got his degree and was drafted in the 4th round. He had to hang up the skates due to injury.

If anything how did he become a GM for an NBA team?

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not sure where you get this idea from. Weisbrod is definitely a hockey guy. Former player and watches hockey for a living. Scouts players with his own eyes.

Chris Snow is the guy in the Flames organization who is the statistical, moneyball type guy who doesn't have a big hockey background.

Maybe you are getting them mixed up?

I thought that he was an NBA guy, based on his previous position. Comforting to know he has a background in the sport. Cheers for correcting me.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Well, the Flames drafting seems vastly improved over the past two years.

in 11' we drafted

Sven Baertschi - Obviously skilled

Markus Granlund - 4th in the SM-Liiga in points behind only Barkov, Armia, and Teravainen. Seems to be quite skilled as well.

Tyler Wotherspoon - 37 points and a +62 as a D-man and a PPG guy in the playoffs for Winterhawks. Seems like he's doing a good job.

John Gaudreau - Looking more and more like a Daniel Briere/Martin St. Louis upside type of player.

Laurent Brossoit - A decent goalie who's been one of the better goalies in the WHL. As good of potential that you could hope for with a 6th round pick.

We might end up getting 5 NHL players in 5 picks with Brossoit seeming the most likely to not make it.

in 2012

Jankowski - A 6-4 center that has above average playmaking skills and is quick for a player of that size. Pretty good.

Sieloff - A defensive banger type. Has been decent this year. Has battled some injuries.

Gillies - The best freshman goalie in the NCAA and in the conversation for best goalie in the NCAA.

Brett Kulak - 44 points as a defenseman.
Ryan Culkin - 45 points as a D-man. Both these guys are Brodie types as they were drafted due to having high offensive instincts. If they can learn the defensive side of the game, they could be excellent 2nd pairing guys or better.

Coda Gordon - 59 points - my least favourite pick of the bunch. He seems to be a possible 3rd/4th line guy maybe. Don't really see him amounting to much

Matt DeBlouw - 21 pts in 42 games in the NCAA. Not bad for a first year player. He's more of a defensive forward and a possible decent 3rd/4th liner possibly in the future.


Between all of those guys, there are only a couple of players that are definitely on the weak side in terms of potential in Gordon and maybe Deblouw, but the rest show NHL potential in some form or another.

With this draft being quite good, with multiple good options with each of the top 3 picks and beyond, I think it would be difficult to screw it up (famous last words I know).

While I am actually very positive about these prospects, I feel I have to be a bit of a negative nancy & remind you that we have had very promising crops of prospects before. A very small percentage of our prospects in the last 10 years have lived up to their potential. Many of whom put up similar points totals in junior -- if not better -- to our current batch of promising youngsters. The vast majority of our prospects ended up unable to convert these talents to the pros or they were never given a proper opportunity by the club to do so. Only playing devils advocate, but we must remember that none of these guys are a sure thing to succeed, and that includes Sven.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Well, the Flames drafting seems vastly improved over the past two years.

...

Between all of those guys, there are only a couple of players that are definitely on the weak side in terms of potential in Gordon and maybe Deblouw, but the rest show NHL potential in some form or another.

I don't think you can make that conclusion just yet. While I'm hopeful that the drafting has improved, some of Darryl's picks looked really good right after they were drafted. Search up past threads about Howse and Reinhart. Even Nemisz was looking like a sure-fire NHL player. Saying guys like Kulak and Culkin have 2nd pairing NHL potential is already being a homer (which is fine). Saying they might even be better than a 2nd pairing Dmen right now is just being silly.

Darryl's drafting is really starting to not look half bad. Backlund is coming into his own. And as much as it pains me to say, Tim Erixon is looking like he will be a solid top 4 Dman for a long time. Brodie looks like a hom-run pick and Bouma and Aulie are looking like excellent mid round picks.

Don't get me wrong, I am hopeful that the Flames' drafting has improved, but I'm not going to be that naive and think that every draft pick of ours will be NHL players, nevermind top 4 defensemen or top 9 forwards.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by FAN

I don't think you can make that conclusion just yet. While I'm hopeful that the drafting has improved, some of Darryl's picks looked really good right after they were drafted. Search up past threads about Howse and Reinhart. Even Nemisz was looking like a sure-fire NHL player. Saying guys like Kulak and Culkin have 2nd pairing NHL potential is already being a homer (which is fine). Saying they might even be better than a 2nd pairing Dmen right now is just being silly.

Darryl's drafting is really starting to not look half bad. Backlund is coming into his own. And as much as it pains me to say, Tim Erixon is looking like he will be a solid top 4 Dman for a long time. Brodie looks like a home-run pick and Bouma and Aulie are looking like excellent mid round picks.

Don't get me wrong, I am hopeful that the Flames' drafting has improved, but I'm not going to be that naive and think that every draft pick of ours will be NHL players, nevermind top 4 defensemen or top 9 forwards.

The reason why I said the pair of offensive defensemen have top 4 or even better potential is that they are the exact same prospects at their age the TJ Brodie was. Brodie was basically a forward playing defense when we drafted him in the 4th round and he's developed into our best overall defenseman. That's the thing, you can't really tell if they are just offensively talented or if they can learn to incorporate the defensive skills over the next few years. Honestly, I'd be happy if one of them makes the NHL.

I'm not naive either to think that all these guys are sure bet NHLers, but I'd rather have a group of guys that are kicking butt in the leagues they're in like Granlund, Brossoit, Gillies, Gaudreau, Kulak, Culkin, and Sven. Usually, if players aren't being awesome at their level they aren't going to be NHLers unless they're grinder types or defensive D-men.

As an aside, I hated the Nemisz pick off the bat and made a comparison between him and Wayne Primeau as his upside at some point shortly after we picked him. Not exactly high praise. The Flames have seemed to change focus on their drafting, selecting guys that have high hockey IQ and sense, with more of a focus on skill and work ethic. Usually taking guys like, especially in the lower rounds, are the guys that come out of nowhere like Brodie.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The reason why I said the pair of offensive defensemen have top 4 or even better potential is that they are the exact same prospects at their age the TJ Brodie was.

No offense, but that's frequently a bad way to compare prospects. It's like Canucks fans saying Kassian was the exact same prospect at 18/19 as Lucic. It doesn't work that way. Personally, I don't even consider Kulak and Culkin to be the same prospect. I like Kulak a lot more and think he is a much better offensive prospect.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

As an aside, I hated the Nemisz pick off the bat and made a comparison between him and Wayne Primeau as his upside at some point shortly after we picked him. Not exactly high praise. The Flames have seemed to change focus on their drafting, selecting guys that have high hockey IQ and sense, with more of a focus on skill and work ethic.

Nemisz was a highly regarded pick whom some had in the first round and some had in the second. But his list of strengths included good puck skills, hockey sense, and work ethic. The upside was there, the consistency and foot speed wasn't. And surely, he would be in your "kick butt" category given he made 2nd team OHL all star and the WJC. I agree that there seems to be a stronger focus on hockey IQ, but Darryl has always placed an emphasis on guys with a work ethic.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by FAN

No offense, but that's frequently a bad way to compare prospects. It's like Canucks fans saying Kassian was the exact same prospect at 18/19 as Lucic. It doesn't work that way. Personally, I don't even consider Kulak and Culkin to be the same prospect. I like Kulak a lot more and think he is a much better offensive prospect.

Usually I split forwards and D-men into rough categories when I'm doing up my draft lists. Brodie, Culkin and Kulak all fall into the category of above average offensive defensemen that are weak in their own end when they were drafted. Similarly, they also posses a good work ethic and hockey IQ as well as overall on ice awareness. That is enough similarities to say they're in essence the same general player at that age.

Of course they're not identical, they aren't clones of one another. You only get that with the Sedins. But for a generalization of their possible potential, you look at the three guys, all with a similar type of game both positively and negatively. The guy that is more advanced (Brodie) has developed into a solid top 4 guy with a lot of room still to grow. The other two guys, if they put a similar effort and if they make similar strides, they too can be possible top 4 guys.

With any ranking of potential, it comes with the caveat of If, then. If Kulak and Culkin make similar strides in their defensive awareness and abilities, their offensive abilities should make them in the ball park of being possible top 4 D-men. Whether they actually make those steps is up to them though. If anyone could tell ahead of time that so and so taken in the 4th or beyond was going to be an NHLer they would be getting paid a lot as a scout.

Nemisz was a highly regarded pick whom some had in the first round and some had in the second. But his list of strengths included good puck skills, hockey sense, and work ethic. The upside was there, the consistency and foot speed wasn't. And surely, he would be in your "kick butt" category given he made 2nd team OHL all star and the WJC. I agree that there seems to be a stronger focus on hockey IQ, but Darryl has always placed an emphasis on guys with a work ethic.

Nemisz was playing on a stacked team alongside Taylor Hall. Usually any player that's a linemate of a #1 pick is not nearly as good as their stats indicate. The Rob Brown effect. I personally never saw the upside in him. Usually for guys without a ton of talent, but ones that are just big, they usually need to be fast to make the NHL. Nemisz doesn't really possess exceptional passing or shooting ability. If he was fast, you could at least rely on him becoming a defensive minded forward that wasn't completely lost in the offensive zone. He only has average speed, which should relegate him to a career of being an AHLer, or a 4th liner on a terrible team that can't find a Steve Begin or Tim Jackman type guy to put there instead.

That's why I hated the suggestion of taking Mark McNeill a couple years ago. It's the same story. Big guy that's not overly skilled or fast is magically having a tough time developing into a player.

[Knalus]

So after reading the article, I came away with a few observations, which could help explain how some rebuilds work, and how others do not.

1. You need prospects that step up that you picked in rounds other than just the first round.
Example: Ryan Malone in the 4th round; Max Talbot (8th); Duncan Keith (2nd) James Wisniewski (5th) and Adam Burish (9th)....

2. Pick multiple different types of player. Size is better than not, but that was clear just if you watch hockey. No one claims that Patrick Kane is going to push anyone off the puck. Don't just pick all bruiser, Western Canadian boys with low upside, or small highly talented Russians. None of the successful teams had one type of player, and none of them focused on one position (maybe Pittsburgh with their insane depth at center).

3. And this one is Key.
Pick Defensemen first. Build a solid core of Defense, THEN go for your marquee young forward stars. Pitt and Chicago both build a solid team, then picked their two superstars up front. Boston had a young superstar, then actually traded him, in order to build the team up, and used that trade immediately to bolster defense, in Zdeno Chara. The only team that started with a marquee forward early, was the Kings with Kopitar, and even then the focus early was on a solid defense first. Another team not mentioned in the article, St. Louis. They build a team around defense almost entirely, with the rest of their players good, skilled forwards, but hardly a marquee player. No Halls, or Eberles,



One thing that wasn't looked at with your Fireside Chat (which I quite enjoyed, btw), was looking at rebuilds that didn't/haven't worked yet. Edmonton started their rebuild almost exclusively with forwards. No defense, going for their home run swing immediately. No late rounders playing for the team, only going for superstar forwards. No goalie.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

While I am actually very positive about these prospects, I feel I have to be a bit of a negative nancy & remind you that we have had very promising crops of prospects before. A very small percentage of our prospects in the last 10 years have lived up to their potential. Many of whom put up similar points totals in junior -- if not better -- to our current batch of promising youngsters. The vast majority of our prospects ended up unable to convert these talents to the pros or they were never given a proper opportunity by the club to do so. Only playing devils advocate, but we must remember that none of these guys are a sure thing to succeed, and that includes Sven.

yeah call me jaded, but "drafting has been improving" has been said every year the past few years. While it looks like it has actually improved, I will be extremely happy if we get even half of what you expect.

and yes, build defense out. Look at Edmonton. Look at the Avs and their three "No 1 C's" ....

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Rudee

Feaster was right. It's not a rebuild. It's a retool. We still have a considerable amount of underachievers on the roster that we failed to trade at the deadline. Not a rebuild when you only get rid of 3 players, even if one is Iginla and other is Jaybo. It's a retool. A proper rebuild involves greater percentage of players.

Which means we'll be having this same discussion again in 12 months.

[Joker]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

and yes, build defense out. Look at Edmonton. Look at the Avs and their three "No 1 C's" ....

Agree. Im a proponent for the whole "build from the net out" philosiphy. Ive been brushing up on the 'big 4' prospects and am most impressed by Mckinnon and Jones, but leaning to Jones. I wouldnt hold it against them if they took Mckinnon because of the long drought without centers, and he is a BEAST- Jones looks legit though, IMO of course.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Joker

Agree. Im a proponent for the whole "build from the net out" philosiphy. Ive been brushing up on the 'big 4' prospects and am most impressed by Mckinnon and Jones, but leaning to Jones. I wouldnt hold it against them if they took Mckinnon because of the long drought without centers, and he is a BEAST- Jones looks legit though, IMO of course.

I'm fine with any of Jones/McK/Druoin (if we get a top 3 pick) but going by timbit's list, which I agree with, we should have:

No 1 C - missing
No 2 C - Backlund?
Skill Winger - Baertschi & JohnnyG
Power Winger - missing
No 1 D - missing
No 2 D - Brodie
Starting goalie - missing

McK/Druoin/Jones fits all those needs...... so fine with any of them. Goaltender, never draft a goalie in the 1st round.

[Joker]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I'm fine with any of Jones/McK/Druoin (if we get a top 3 pick) but going by timbit's list, which I agree with, we should have:

No 1 C - missing
No 2 C - Backlund?
Skill Winger - Baertschi & JohnnyG
Power Winger - missing
No 1 D - missing
No 2 D - Brodie
Starting goalie - missing

McK/Druoin/Jones fits all those needs...... so fine with any of them. Goaltender, never draft a goalie in the 1st round.

Druoin may be a little small, not really a 'center piece' for building a franchise. I think, would be better suited as a winger, albeit he is the one i know the least about. Might be a little ignorant to his ability as a 2 way player. He is definitely super skilled, and I would be happy if the flames end up with him, I just think Jones/Mckinnon are more of what they need.

[Joker]

...and yes, no Trevor Kid picks hahaha

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

I thought that he was an NBA guy, based on his previous position. Comforting to know he has a background in the sport. Cheers for correcting me.

Yeah, he was a hockey guy originally. The people who owned the Magic also owned the Orlando based IHL team that he was the GM of and when that folded they moved some front office staff from the hockey team to the Basketball team and then later he was promoted to GM.

Interesting career path he's had.