[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I think he will be in jail. I don't think he'll be running.

I am more worried about Kushner or Donkey Trump Jr. carrying the torch in the future. Add to that Sarah Palin hinting at a return to federal politics, and there will be a lot of available cultist fuel in 2024.

[Tron_fdc]

I actually think the best thing for the USA would be Trump accepting some type of deal in lieu of jail, leaving the country, getting banned from social media, and fading away.

If you throw him in jail it just whips his base and divides the country up even further.

Guy just needs to leave. Permanently. Go host Russian celebrity apprentice or something.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Just watched this amazing show on PBS called Rise of the Nazis - Politics that I taped the other day.

It’s weirdly scary how it reminds me of what’s going on in US politics right now. The political manoeuvring, the dissolution of the rule of law, the slow rise to power of extremists.

[GGG]

Really good article on polling in the election by 538

Here are a few of them:

On the one hand, I don’t entirely understand the polls-were-wrong storyline. This year was definitely a little weird, given that the vote share margins were often fairly far off from the polls (including in some high-profile examples such as Wisconsin and Florida). But at the same time, a high percentage of states (likely 48 out of 50) were “called” correctly, as was the overall Electoral College and popular vote winner (Biden). And that’s usually how polls are judged: Did they identify the right winner?
On the other hand, evaluating how close the polls came to the actual vote share margins is a better way to judge polls, so I’m glad that people are doing that.
And yet, the margins by which the polls missed — underestimating President Trump by what will likely end up being 3 to 4 percentage points in national and swing state polls — is actually pretty normal by historical standards.
However, there are nevertheless reasons to be concerned about the polls going forward, especially if it’s hard to get a truly representative sample of people on the phone.
Finally, there’s a slightly meta point here: Voters and the media need to recalibrate their expectations around polls — not necessarily because anything’s changed, but because those expectations demanded an unrealistic level of precision — while simultaneously resisting the urge to “throw all the polls out.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...pretty-normal/

I really like the last bullet. We are asking poles to be more representative then they can be.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I think he will be in jail. I don't think he'll be running.

It’d be an interesting poll. I’d say:

10% chance he’s in jail
30% he’s alive and free
60% he’s dead

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I think he will be in jail. I don't think he'll be running.

Agreed. Even if he isn't in jail, I seriously doubt he'd run again. Dude never wanted to be president to begin with and from most accounts he seems to hate the job. Once he's out of the WH, I could see him starting Trump TV or maybe fleeing the country. Whatever he ends up doing, there's no doubt he'll continue to con money out of his dumbass supporters for as long as he can.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Agreed. Even if he isn't in jail, I seriously doubt he'd run again. Dude never wanted to be president to begin with and from most accounts he seems to hate the job. Once he's out of the WH, I could see him starting Trump TV or maybe fleeing the country. Whatever he ends up doing, there's no doubt he'll continue to con money out of his dumbass supporters for as long as he can.

Ivana Trump said the other day that he just hates to lose, plain and simple. Doesn't matter what the context is, he just hates to lose. She speculated that if he does lose in such a public way, he may not ever want to show his face again. I hope she is right.

I personally suspect that he will stay in the public light just to be a thorn in the side of Biden. At some point, the CIA will need to put him in a stew for the sake of the nation in my opinion. There comes a point where someone like him, even just in the background, becomes a legitimate national security issue.

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I am more worried about Kushner or Donkey Trump Jr. carrying the torch in the future. Add to that Sarah Palin hinting at a return to federal politics, and there will be a lot of available cultist fuel in 2024.

I like this. I'm going to use it.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I am more worried about Kushner or Donkey Trump Jr. carrying the torch in the future. Add to that Sarah Palin hinting at a return to federal politics, and there will be a lot of available cultist fuel in 2024.

I just can't see Kushner as someone who's able to fire up their base ... at all. I'm more worried about nutcases like Tucker Carlson making a run, to be honest.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Just watched this amazing show on PBS called Rise of the Nazis - Politics that I taped the other day.

It’s weirdly scary how it reminds me of what’s going on in US politics right now. The political manoeuvring, the dissolution of the rule of law, the slow rise to power of extremists.

Yep. People think that that we would never allow such an extremist group take root in North America and install a government. That the West has learned it's lesson we think.

However, the Nazis didn't show up on day one of 1933 as the extremists we associate with 1939-1945. They slowly but surely become evil incarnate by chipping away at rights and freedoms, and flouting laws and norms to eventually become what they become.

If Americans allow the Rs to continually chip away at norms, freedoms and laws, who knows what the next Trump will be like.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Just watched this amazing show on PBS called Rise of the Nazis - Politics that I taped the other day.

It’s weirdly scary how it reminds me of what’s going on in US politics right now. The political manoeuvring, the dissolution of the rule of law, the slow rise to power of extremists.

The comparisons are superficial. The depth of economic crisis in Germany was so incredibly beyond even 2008, there were literally private street militia gangs with rival power to the actual military, politics was diffused along multiple radical lines, and there was intense cultural nostalgia for a more powerful, and racially pure Germany.

All this combined with failed yearnings for continental supremacy, a literal struggle to the death rivalry with France, deep cultural anti-Semitism, and resentment over mistreatment at Versailles.

It isn’t close - even if you can see some pretend similarities, there is nothing like cultural nostalgia in the US for some Wagnerian past of pure Germanic peoples uniting for global conquest.

Also, even in times of remarkable instability, the American rule of law has proven incredibly strong. Look at the litany of failed Trump lawsuits.

American authoritarianism is pretend authoritarianism - which makes it more pathetic, in my eyes.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Yep. People think that that we would never allow such an extremist group take root in North America and install a government. That the West has learned it's lesson we think.

However, the Nazis didn't show up on day one of 1933 as the extremists we associate with 1939-1945. They slowly but surely become evil incarnate by chipping away at rights and freedoms, and flouting laws and norms to eventually become what they become.

If Americans allow the Rs to continually chip away at norms, freedoms and laws, who knows what the next Trump will be like.

Hitler was never shy about being a racial purity obsessed anti-Semite.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Just watched this amazing show on PBS called Rise of the Nazis - Politics that I taped the other day.

It’s weirdly scary how it reminds me of what’s going on in US politics right now. The political manoeuvring, the dissolution of the rule of law, the slow rise to power of extremists.

yes the irony/ridiculousness of the 'I need my guns to defend me from the oppressive guberment' arguement is that dictators always gain power by appealing to a conservative majority and hold power by their assent, in the US that is gun owners

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Pete I think you need to realize that “reminds me” does not mean “is exactly the same as”.

It reminds me of it. I didn’t say it is perfectly mirroring it.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

Hitler was never shy about being a racial purity obsessed anti-Semite.

that was not an extreme position in 1930, there were plenty of American and Canadian politicians that held and ran on exactly the same views.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Pete I think you need to realize that “reminds me” does not mean “is exactly the same as”.

It reminds me of it. I didn’t say it is perfectly mirroring it.

As I said, superficial. Not even worth talking about.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

that was not an extreme position in 1930, there were plenty of American and Canadian politicians that held and ran on exactly the same views.

Ah your famous lapse into whataboutism.

[CroFlames]

Keep defending Republicans, I guess.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

yes the irony/ridiculousness of the 'I need my guns to defend me from the oppressive guberment' arguement is that dictators always gain power by appealing to a conservative majority and hold power by their assent, in the US that is gun owners

Iraq under Saddam Hussein had one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in the world (I believe it was second only to the U.S. at the time). It's one of the major reasons toppling him from the inside was practically impossible. Today, Yemen holds that honour. One of the first things the U.S. did when they occupied Iraq was take their guns away.

In most parts of the world, assault weapons are seen as a tool of oppression and not freedom.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

Ah your famous lapse into whataboutism.

No just pointing out that if we look back at Hitler from our current world view and think his rise was an abberation because of his anti semitism we need to realize that anti semitism, racism in general in the 1920's and 30's was a wholly reasonable mainstream right wing political position, it isnt now and we tend to forget that and so veiw his rise with incrudulity.