Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

It will make a huge difference - royalties post payout are calculated differently (on net vs gross) but the percentage take is much higher so the collections will be much greater.

I don't think they'll be any less cyclical, and in fact might be more cyclical. Net revenues are more volatile than gross revenues, because expenses don't change that much.

Eg. Say your costs are $30/bbl and the price is $60/bbl. So gross is $60 and net is $30.

If the price drops to $40 in a downturn, gross has dropped by 33% down to $40/bbl, while net has dropped 66% to $10/bbl.

The volatility works the same on the upside. If prices rose from $60 to $90 the gross is up 50% but the net (90-30=60) has doubled.

Oilsands projects reaching payout is a huge win for AB citizens/taxpayers, because our cut goes way up. It'll make the boom and bust cycle for government revenues even more pronounced though. Although on the downside the rule is projects post payout have to pay the pre-payout amount if that would be higher (probably only if they are losing money) so there isn't any downside to the province.

Except that our governments will piss away a tsunami of cash in the good times on stupid stuff and then have <shocked Pikachu face> as the plan for when the cycle turns.

Here is some good info on how the payouts work:

https://www.alberta.ca/royalty-oil-sands.aspx

And a table of all the projects, their payouts and types:

https://www.alberta.ca/royalty-oil-s...ject-data.aspx

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

They just had a parks guy on CBC at noon. He was saying they can't run a shuttle earlier than 6:30 because of wildlife protection rules preventing vehicles on Whitehorn road before then. This is the road to the ski area where parking is. But private companies can run ealry and late shuttles if they went from, say, Banff. They expect this to be an option.

They also said they've been working with traffic control in LL for years, and nothing is ever set in stone, they modify plans all the time as they learn more to help different user groups. They aren't an adversary, they are trying to help everyone. This is why the government of Albereta busting in all blustery is so dumb. They look like morons who have no idea what is going on, but hear that Trudeau is "taking away" something, and go full idiot before they have any info.

What about running from that overflow/park & ride lot a little ways down from the Lake Louise overpass along highway 1? If there is some weird restriction on the road to the ski hill they should be able to run busses up and down highway 1 and through the townsite at any hour.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

What about running from that overflow/park & ride lot a little ways down from the Lake Louise overpass along highway 1? If there is some weird restriction on the road to the ski hill they should be able to run busses up and down highway 1 and through the townsite at any hour.

Yup, that could be a good option too. I'm sure they'll get the kinks worked out.

[Wormius]

Maybe they can set up e-bikes and charging stations at both ends in the event the shuttle schedule doesn’t align with yours. It seems like a solvable problem.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Superflyer

What is NEP 2.0? I have not heard of it and tried to look it up but it seems like it just another "clever" name given to the National Energy and Climate plan. Maybe?

http://www.history.alberta.ca/energy...-east/nep.aspx


Then this happened;

http://www.history.alberta.ca/energy...s/default.aspx


Rightly or wrongly, that is a brief summary of why Albertans have trust issues with the Trudeau family. I was too young to have a real solid opinion of Pierre Elliot but, watching retrospectives on him, I personally like him a lot more than his son. A lot more.

[Monahammer]

The NEP had shortcomings for Albertans, no doubt. But I think those may have smoothed out over time- pretty much impossible to say obviously, but think of some of the infrastrucutre we'd have in place. Transnational pipelines to export ports on either coast. Refineries and processing in Quebec employing people in the industry.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The NEP had shortcomings for Albertans, no doubt. But I think those may have smoothed out over time- pretty much impossible to say obviously, but think of some of the infrastrucutre we'd have in place. Transnational pipelines to export ports on either coast. Refineries and processing in Quebec employing people in the industry.

The early 80's crash forced me (I was a child) and my family to move to Saskatchewan from Calgary. At the time, everyone simply blamed the NEP and Trudeau. In hindsight, I don't disagree with you. Under a different set of global circumstances it may have worked out much better. And, when you look at the world today, setting yourself up nationally for self supplied energy security wouldn't have been a bad play. Obviously it wasn't built to attract foreign investment, but that has had it's ebbs and flows regardless.

As far as it relates to the Just Transition legislation, I'm not sure I see the connection and I'm waiting to see more of it before judging it's impact on Alberta.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

The early 80's crash forced me (I was a child) and my family to move to Saskatchewan from Calgary. At the time, everyone simply blamed the NEP and Trudeau. In hindsight, I don't disagree with you. Under a different set of global circumstances it may have worked out much better. And, when you look at the world today, setting yourself up nationally for self supplied energy security wouldn't have been a bad play. Obviously it wasn't built to attract foreign investment, but that has had it's ebbs and flows regardless.

As far as it relates to the Just Transition legislation, I'm not sure I see the connection and I'm waiting to see more of it before judging it's impact on Alberta.

The current federal government doesnt have the stones to attempt a program of this magnitude. The NEP's primary goals on outset were this:

Increase Canadian participation in the oil and gas sector
Establish fair energy pricing for Canadian consumers
Secure Canada’s supply of oil and gas

Sounds like Jason Kenney's wet dream.

Just Transition is just about job training programs. To compare it to the NEP is absolutely asinine.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The current federal government doesnt have the stones to attempt a program of this magnitude. The NEP's primary goals on outset were this:

Increase Canadian participation in the oil and gas sector
Establish fair energy pricing for Canadian consumers
Secure Canada’s supply of oil and gas

Sounds like Jason Kenney's wet dream.

Just Transition is just about job training programs. To compare it to the NEP is absolutely asinine.

I might be wrong, but I think we're in violent agreement. On the notion that NEP is similar to JT at least.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The current federal government doesnt have the stones to attempt a program of this magnitude. The NEP's primary goals on outset were this:

Increase Canadian participation in the oil and gas sector
Establish fair energy pricing for Canadian consumers
Secure Canada’s supply of oil and gas

Sounds like Jason Kenney's wet dream.

Just Transition is just about job training programs. To compare it to the NEP is absolutely asinine.

Building a pipeline to Eastern Canada was a key part of the NEP as well.

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

Building a pipeline to Eastern Canada was a key part of the NEP as well.

Canada owned refineries as well I believe.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

Building a pipeline to Eastern Canada was a key part of the NEP as well.

Transnational pipeline to both coasts. It's part of goal 1: securing Canadian energy. The goal was to be completely energy independent, no requirement for imports of any kind.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Yikes

Canada owned refineries as well I believe.

Yes, this too. Petrocan is the legacy of this. We had one in Edmonton.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Maybe they can set up e-bikes and charging stations at both ends in the event the shuttle schedule doesn’t align with yours. It seems like a solvable problem.

That'd be pretty slick actually.

[Flames0910]

Lake Louise (the ski resort, not the lake itself) has a fleet of eBikes for rent already so this is basically already an option. They just need to make sure the hours work and market the hell out of it. IDK what the range on their bikes is but I imagine a full battery would get you up to Moraine Lake (and maybe to Lake Louise proper though the road isn't very nice to ride with cars) and back.

Plus they have Banded Peak Base Camp with awesome smoked BBQ treats after the ride.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Maybe when the PM starts it will happen? Sucks when someone else uses JTs playbook.

The Alberta government is literally the party that is refusing to take part in dialogue with the feds over this.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

Lake Louise (the ski resort, not the lake itself) has a fleet of eBikes for rent already so this is basically already an option. They just need to make sure the hours work and market the hell out of it. IDK what the range on their bikes is but I imagine a full battery would get you up to Moraine Lake (and maybe to Lake Louise proper though the road isn't very nice to ride with cars) and back.

Plus they have Banded Peak Base Camp with awesome smoked BBQ treats after the ride.

Presumably the bikes are capable of off road, so you can ride up the tramline trail.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Transnational pipeline to both coasts. It's part of goal 1: securing Canadian energy. The goal was to be completely energy independent, no requirement for imports of any kind.

Sounds awful, what kind of socialist monsters would ever want such a thing?!

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

What about running from that overflow/park & ride lot a little ways down from the Lake Louise overpass along highway 1? If there is some weird restriction on the road to the ski hill they should be able to run busses up and down highway 1 and through the townsite at any hour.

This is where the shuttles ran from previously, but it wasn't very safe as it required turns across the TC1. They lowered the speed limit to 60, but of course many people disregard that.

The resort lots have triple the capacity, and it'll be much nicer to grab a coffee or use a civilized washroom before/after the shuttle.

I wonder if the resort will try to keep the main lot for their gondola customers only, though if you look at satellite view on Google Maps, the previous parking lot you reference is jammed full, while the resort lot only has like 5% of the spots used.


The wildlife argument makes as much sense on Moraine Lake Rd (and the trails) as it does on the 1A or Whitehorn, where they already restrict access at certain hours.

Originally Posted by Wormius

Maybe they can set up e-bikes and charging stations at both ends in the event the shuttle schedule doesn’t align with yours. It seems like a solvable problem.

I love this idea, but there's still the problem of where these people leave their cars. The Lake lot could work, but it gets jam packed, too (I think they've piloted charging fees to park there which makes a lot of sense). The road will be a lot more pleasant to ride with only shuttles to contend with.

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Slightly off-topic, but as I understand it a number of the large oil sands projects were fully paid off recently and no longer pay reduced royalties. How much of a difference does this make to the government’s bottom line and would it lessen the impact of downturns?

Let me put it this way:

"siri, How did Alberta suddenly have almost a $12 billion surplus?"

#UCP "fiscal Management" is simply the trust fund (royalties) paying out more.

funny thing, I recall watching finance minister ted morton, telling Rocky View County Council (as local MLA update) that oil patch/ oilsands projects were going to start the "fully paid-off royalty rate within 2 years..."