[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[blender]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

This is an interesting point. What percentage of the Democrat voters think that Trump is a racist, then, would you say?

Relevance?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

is it just me or is the concept of "mail in balloting" new to this US election cycle?

In past elections limited numbers of absentee ballots were allowed for overseas armed forces personnel and ex-pats. The numbers were small.

In this election huge numbers of voters did not vote in person and I am starting to think there may be something to the risk of serious fraud.

Maybe future elections should be limited to in-person voting with limited exceptions. Like..... in Canada?

EDIT: I get that this was done because of Covid. Should these votes not have been counted in advance?

How many times does this have to be covered? Mail in voting has been around for decades and there has never been a problem with it. 45 states offered mail in options prior to this election, and it was considered a very safe and secure way of submitting a ballot. In Arizona it is actually the preferred way of voting and you have to opt out at registration to not receive your ballot via mail. There is nothing wrong with mail in ballots as they have worked for decades.

The problems that arose in this election were cause by Trump, the Republicans, and the Post Office, as a result of a Trump appointed flunky doing Cheeto Mussolini's bidding. Trump first complained about mail in ballots because he knew Democrats were most likely to use this form of voting. So what did he and the Republicans around the country do? They put in place barriers that would make voting by mail more difficult, and then put into play mechanisms that prevented those ballots from being pre-counted, as they have been in years gone by. Then to really compound the mess that was developing, the Post Office started playing games by removing mail boxes from the street (can't vote if you can't mail that ballot), removed sorting equipment in sorting plants (slowing delivery times), and then cancelled all OT to help get back on track. The Republicans then made it even more difficult by limiting the number of ballot return boxes in states, making it difficult to vote. All of this was related to mail in ballots, but had nothing to do with the traditional practice of using mail in ballots. This was the Republicans going out of their way to make it more difficult for people to vote using the safest and easiest form of voting, and the safest during pandemic. The final kick in the nuts was when Republicans in some states made it so ballots could not be pre-counted and would have to be opened and counted on election night after the polls would close. This made catching up almost impossible and produced the now famous red mirage.

Mail in voting is extremely safe and is easy for the voter. We shouldn't get away from it, it should become the standard around the nation and the mechanisms to better leverage the ballots should be put into place. If they followed Arizona's practice, they would have results election night and be extremely confident of the outcome. But with all the monkey business the Republicans put into play this cycle mail ballots have been cast in a bad light. This needs to be resolved as mail in ballots are the best way to vote.

[Doctorfever]

No matter what, hopefully every legally placed vote gets counted. And if nothing else, they get it sorted so that it isn’t a point of discussion for the next election(s).

After all, every vote does / should count.
.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Some really interesting data that is coming out of this election. There is a big increase in Democrat ballots cast around the country, and most importantly the percentage of votes in each state. Here's a comparison between the 2016 and 2020 elections.

AL - 2016 D:34.4%, R:62.1%, 2020 D:36.5%, R:62.1%, Change D:+2.1%, R:Flat
AK - 2016 D:36.5%, R:51.2%, 2020 D:33.6%, R:62.2%, Change D:-2.9%, R:+11.0%
AZ - 2016 D:45.1%, R:48.7%, 2020 D:49.4%, R:49.0%, Change D:+4.3%, R:+0.3%
AR - 2016 D:33.6%, R:60.6%, 2020 D:34.6%, R:62.6%, Change D:+1.0%, R:+1.6%
CA - 2016 D:61.7%, R:31.6%, 2020 D:64.8%, R:33.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+1.6%
CO - 2016 D:48.1%, R:43.5%, 2020 D:55.4%, R:41.9%, Change D:+7.3%, R:+1.6%
CT - 2016 D:54.6%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:59.2%, R:39.2%, Change D:+4.6%, R:-1.7%
DE - 2016 D:53.1%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:58.8%, R:39.8%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.1%
DC - 2016 D:90.5%, R:4.10%, 2020 D:92.6%, R:5.20%, Change D:+2.1%, R:+1.1%
FL - 2016 D:47.8%, R:49.0%, 2020 D:47.8%, R:51.2%, Change D:Flat, R:+2.2%
GA - 2016 D:45.6%, R:50.7%, 2020 D:49.5%, R:49.2%, Change D:+3.9%, R:-0.3%
HI - 2016 D:62.2%, R:30.0%, 2020 D:63.7%, R:34.3%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+4.3%
ID - 2016 D:27.5%, R:59.3%, 2020 D:33.1%, R:63.8%, Change D:+5.6%, R:+4.5%
IL - 2016 D:55.8%, R:38.8%, 2020 D:55.5%, R:42.6%, Change D:-0.3%, R:+3.8%
IN - 2016 D:37.9%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:40.9%, R:57.0%, Change D:+3.0%, R:+0.2%
IA - 2016 D:41.7%, R:51.1%, 2020 D:44.9%, R:53.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+2.1%
KS - 2016 D:36.0%, R:56.7%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.5%, Change D:+5.3%, R:-0.2%
KY - 2016 D:32.7%, R:62.5%, 2020 D:36.2%, R:62.1%, Change D:+3.5%, R:-0.4%
LA - 2016 D:38.4%, R:58.1%, 2020 D:39.9%, R:58.5%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.4%
MA - 2016 D:60.0%, R:32.8%, 2020 D:65.2%, R:32.5%, Change D:+5.2%, R:-0.3%
MD - 2016 D:60.3%, R:33.9%, 2020 D:64.3%, R:33.8%, Change D:+4.0%, R:-0.1%
ME - 2016 D:47.8%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:53.5%, R:43.5%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.4%
MI - 2016 D:47.2%, R:47.5%, 2020 D:50.5%, R:47.9%, Change D:+3.3%, R:+0.4%
MN - 2016 D:46.4%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:52.5%, R:45.4%, Change D:+6.1%, R:+0.4%
MO - 2016 D:38.1%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.9%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.1%
MS - 2016 D:40.1%, R:57.9%, 2020 D:39.0%, R:59.4%, Change D:-1.1%, R:+2.5%
NE - 2016 D:33.7%, R:58.8%, 2020 D:39.2%, R:58.5%, Change D:+5.5%, R:-0.3%
NV - 2016 D:47.9%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:50.2%, R:47.5%, Change D:+2.3%, R:+2.0%
NH - 2016 D:46.9%, R:46.6%, 2020 D:52.8%, R:45.5%, Change D:+5.9%, R:-1.1%
NJ - 2016 D:55.4%, R:41.4%, 2020 D:57.5%, R:41.0%, Change D:+2.1%, R:-0.4%
NM - 2016 D:48.3%, R:40.0%, 2020 D:54.2%, R:43.6%, Change D:+6.9%, R:+3.6%
NY - 2016 D:59.0%, R:36.5%, 2020 D:55.7%, R:42.9%, Change D:-3.2%, R:+6.4%
NC - 2016 D:46.1%, R:49.8%, 2020 D:48.7%, R:50.0%, Change D:+2.6%, R:+0.2%
ND - 2016 D:27.2%, R:62.9%, 2020 D:31.8%, R:65.1%, Change D:+4.6%, R:+2.2%
OH - 2016 D:43.6%, R:51.7%, 2020 D:45.2%, R:53.3%, Change D:+1.6%, R:+1.6%
OK - 2016 D:28.9%, R:65.3%, 2020 D:32.3%, R:65.4%, Change D:+3.4%, R:+0.1%
OR - 2016 D:50.7%, R:39.0%, 2020 D:56.5%, R:40.3%, Change D:+5.8%, R:+1.3%
PA - 2016 D:47.5%, R:48.2%, 2020 D:49.7%, R:49.0%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.8%
RI - 2016 D:54.4%, R:38.9%, 2020 D:59.6%, R:38.9%, Change D:+5.2%, R:Flat
SC - 2016 D:40.6%, R:54.9%, 2020 D:43.4%, R:55.1%, Change D:+2.8%, R:+0.2%
SD - 2016 D:31.7%, R:61.5%, 2020 D:35.6%, R:61.8%, Change D:+3.9%, R:+0.3%
TN - 2016 D:34.7%, R:60.7%, 2020 D:37.4%, R:60.7%, Change D:+2.7%, R:Flat
TX - 2016 D:43.2%, R:52.2%, 2020 D:46.4%, R:52.1%, Change D:+3.2%, R:-0.1%
UT - 2016 D:27.4%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:37.6%, R:58.3%, Change D:+10.2%, R:+12.8%
VA - 2016 D:49.7%, R:44.4%, 2020 D:54.1%, R:44.3%, Change D:+4.4%, R:-0.1%
VT - 2016 D:56.9%, R:30.3%, 2020 D:64.9%, R:31.7%, Change D:+8.0%, R:+1.4%
WA - 2016 D:52.5%, R:36.8%, 2020 D:58.5%, R:38.9%, Change D:+6.0%, R:+2.1%
WV - 2016 D:26.4%, R:68.5%, 2020 D:29.6%, R:68.7%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.2%
WY - 2016 D:21.6%, R:67.4%, 2020 D:26.6%, R:70.0%, Change D:+5.0%, R:+2.6%

One thing this does show for certain is the independent candidates in the 2016 election most definitely acted as a vote suck from Clinton and not from Trump. The shift as a result has definitely gone back to the Dems, and the only thing from really making the Republicans a skid marks in the shorts of democracy is gerrymandering. When you are losing the vote shift like this, and maintaining your segment, the only way you win is by stacking the deck.

[#-3]

I've gotta say, I was really really temped to put a lot of though into an answer to BL about why Shantz's question is in fact enlightening about the thought processes of a person you are having a dialogue with. When you are engaged in a dialectic it is important to understand how they are framing reality.

But I realized, weather or not he espouses any specific beliefs here is irrelevant. He is being disingenuous, and trying to create outrage as a game. He literally used the term "Both Sides" to start one of his posts hoping to strike outrage over one of Trumps many tacit endorsements of racist behavior, so he can argue that Trump didn't literally support the racists there (which he did). Watch any of the interviews with the true believers, they are baiting his racist behavior they are selectively blocking it from their memory.


A risk of sounding like a fire brand, the republican turn toward insurrection, and the purging of offices today is very concerning. I am not sure where the average republicans opinion of the situation lays, but I do not think there is a peaceful alternative to Trump being removed from office on January 20th at this point. It definitely feels like some poured some gasoline on this power keg, I really hope they don't have matches.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by New Era

Some really interesting data that is coming out of this election. There is a big increase in Democrat ballots cast around the country, and most importantly the percentage of votes in each state. Here's a comparison between the 2016 and 2020 elections.

AL - 2016 D:34.4%, R:62.1%, 2020 D:36.5%, R:62.1%, Change D:+2.1%, R:Flat
AK - 2016 D:36.5%, R:51.2%, 2020 D:33.6%, R:62.2%, Change D:-2.9%, R:+11.0%
AZ - 2016 D:45.1%, R:48.7%, 2020 D:49.4%, R:49.0%, Change D:+4.3%, R:+0.3%
AR - 2016 D:33.6%, R:60.6%, 2020 D:34.6%, R:62.6%, Change D:+1.0%, R:+1.6%
CA - 2016 D:61.7%, R:31.6%, 2020 D:64.8%, R:33.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+1.6%
CO - 2016 D:48.1%, R:43.5%, 2020 D:55.4%, R:41.9%, Change D:+7.3%, R:+1.6%
CT - 2016 D:54.6%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:59.2%, R:39.2%, Change D:+4.6%, R:-1.7%
DE - 2016 D:53.1%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:58.8%, R:39.8%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.1%
DC - 2016 D:90.5%, R:4.10%, 2020 D:92.6%, R:5.20%, Change D:+2.1%, R:+1.1%
FL - 2016 D:47.8%, R:49.0%, 2020 D:47.8%, R:51.2%, Change D:Flat, R:+2.2%
GA - 2016 D:45.6%, R:50.7%, 2020 D:49.5%, R:49.2%, Change D:+3.9%, R:-0.3%
HI - 2016 D:62.2%, R:30.0%, 2020 D:63.7%, R:34.3%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+4.3%
ID - 2016 D:27.5%, R:59.3%, 2020 D:33.1%, R:63.8%, Change D:+5.6%, R:+4.5%
IL - 2016 D:55.8%, R:38.8%, 2020 D:55.5%, R:42.6%, Change D:-0.3%, R:+3.8%
IN - 2016 D:37.9%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:40.9%, R:57.0%, Change D:+3.0%, R:+0.2%
IA - 2016 D:41.7%, R:51.1%, 2020 D:44.9%, R:53.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+2.1%
KS - 2016 D:36.0%, R:56.7%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.5%, Change D:+5.3%, R:-0.2%
KY - 2016 D:32.7%, R:62.5%, 2020 D:36.2%, R:62.1%, Change D:+3.5%, R:-0.4%
LA - 2016 D:38.4%, R:58.1%, 2020 D:39.9%, R:58.5%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.4%
MA - 2016 D:60.0%, R:32.8%, 2020 D:65.2%, R:32.5%, Change D:+5.2%, R:-0.3%
MD - 2016 D:60.3%, R:33.9%, 2020 D:64.3%, R:33.8%, Change D:+4.0%, R:-0.1%
ME - 2016 D:47.8%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:53.5%, R:43.5%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.4%
MI - 2016 D:47.2%, R:47.5%, 2020 D:50.5%, R:47.9%, Change D:+3.3%, R:+0.4%
MN - 2016 D:46.4%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:52.5%, R:45.4%, Change D:+6.1%, R:+0.4%
MO - 2016 D:38.1%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.9%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.1%
MS - 2016 D:40.1%, R:57.9%, 2020 D:39.0%, R:59.4%, Change D:-1.1%, R:+2.5%
NE - 2016 D:33.7%, R:58.8%, 2020 D:39.2%, R:58.5%, Change D:+5.5%, R:-0.3%
NV - 2016 D:47.9%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:50.2%, R:47.5%, Change D:+2.3%, R:+2.0%
NH - 2016 D:46.9%, R:46.6%, 2020 D:52.8%, R:45.5%, Change D:+5.9%, R:-1.1%
NJ - 2016 D:55.4%, R:41.4%, 2020 D:57.5%, R:41.0%, Change D:+2.1%, R:-0.4%
NM - 2016 D:48.3%, R:40.0%, 2020 D:54.2%, R:43.6%, Change D:+6.9%, R:+3.6%
NY - 2016 D:59.0%, R:36.5%, 2020 D:55.7%, R:42.9%, Change D:-3.2%, R:+6.4%
NC - 2016 D:46.1%, R:49.8%, 2020 D:48.7%, R:50.0%, Change D:+2.6%, R:+0.2%
ND - 2016 D:27.2%, R:62.9%, 2020 D:31.8%, R:65.1%, Change D:+4.6%, R:+2.2%
OH - 2016 D:43.6%, R:51.7%, 2020 D:45.2%, R:53.3%, Change D:+1.6%, R:+1.6%
OK - 2016 D:28.9%, R:65.3%, 2020 D:32.3%, R:65.4%, Change D:+3.4%, R:+0.1%
OR - 2016 D:50.7%, R:39.0%, 2020 D:56.5%, R:40.3%, Change D:+5.8%, R:+1.3%
PA - 2016 D:47.5%, R:48.2%, 2020 D:49.7%, R:49.0%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.8%
RI - 2016 D:54.4%, R:38.9%, 2020 D:59.6%, R:38.9%, Change D:+5.2%, R:Flat
SC - 2016 D:40.6%, R:54.9%, 2020 D:43.4%, R:55.1%, Change D:+2.8%, R:+0.2%
SD - 2016 D:31.7%, R:61.5%, 2020 D:35.6%, R:61.8%, Change D:+3.9%, R:+0.3%
TN - 2016 D:34.7%, R:60.7%, 2020 D:37.4%, R:60.7%, Change D:+2.7%, R:Flat
TX - 2016 D:43.2%, R:52.2%, 2020 D:46.4%, R:52.1%, Change D:+3.2%, R:-0.1%
UT - 2016 D:27.4%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:37.6%, R:58.3%, Change D:+10.2%, R:+12.8%
VA - 2016 D:49.7%, R:44.4%, 2020 D:54.1%, R:44.3%, Change D:+4.4%, R:-0.1%
VT - 2016 D:56.9%, R:30.3%, 2020 D:64.9%, R:31.7%, Change D:+8.0%, R:+1.4%
WA - 2016 D:52.5%, R:36.8%, 2020 D:58.5%, R:38.9%, Change D:+6.0%, R:+2.1%
WV - 2016 D:26.4%, R:68.5%, 2020 D:29.6%, R:68.7%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.2%
WY - 2016 D:21.6%, R:67.4%, 2020 D:26.6%, R:70.0%, Change D:+5.0%, R:+2.6%

One thing this does show for certain is the independent candidates in the 2016 election most definitely acted as a vote suck from Clinton and not from Trump. The shift as a result has definitely gone back to the Dems, and the only thing from really making the Republicans a skid marks in the shorts of democracy is gerrymandering. When you are losing the vote shift like this, and maintaining your segment, the only way you win is by stacking the deck.

Is gerrymandering even a factor anymore in federal politics? The house has gone Democrat the last 2 elections, and doesn't look like it is in danger any time soon.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

is it just me or is the concept of "mail in balloting" new to this US election cycle?

In past elections limited numbers of absentee ballots were allowed for overseas armed forces personnel and ex-pats. The numbers were small.

In this election huge numbers of voters did not vote in person and I am starting to think there may be something to the risk of serious fraud.

Maybe future elections should be limited to in-person voting with limited exceptions. Like..... in Canada?

EDIT: I get that this was done because of Covid. Should these votes not have been counted in advance?

33 million people voted by mail in 2016.

Not small.

The only reason anyone is talking about this is because Trump knew the polling of mail in voters was greatly favoring Democrats so he tried to create a controversy over nothing.

Apparently it worked.

[Manhattanboy]

Appreciate the explanations re mail in ballots.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

Pumpkins are orange. Donald Trump is orange. Does that make Donald Trump a pumpkin?

Yes. We carved ourselves a Trumpkin in 2016.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

is it just me or is the concept of "mail in balloting" new to this US election cycle?

In past elections limited numbers of absentee ballots were allowed for overseas armed forces personnel and ex-pats. The numbers were small.

In this election huge numbers of voters did not vote in person and I am starting to think there may be something to the risk of serious fraud.

Maybe future elections should be limited to in-person voting with limited exceptions. Like..... in Canada?

EDIT: I get that this was done because of Covid. Should these votes not have been counted in advance?

In a modern democracy where everyone over the age of 18 has the vote there is no way to commit fraud by physically filling in the ballots no matter how they are cast, the numbers are just too huge, in order to 'fix' say Arizona by physical ballot, mail in or otherwise you'd need to get your hands on 80,000 ballots minimally, that's about 2% of the voters, you really need more than that but at the very least you need 2% as you have no idea how close the race is, you need to fiddle enough ballots to 'fix' a non close race or it is all completely pointless, those 80,000 ballots are all attached to real people, you cant just print off your own copies, you have to intercept, steal and then fill in 80,000 odd ballots, not only that they have to be ballots of the other side, persuading 80,000 of your own people to look the other way or not complain when their ballot doesnt show up is pointless, it has to be the other sides ballots you steal, it just isnt possible without hundreds of people involved, even if you could manage that most of those 80,000 will complain or turn up at the polling station and your evil plan will be exposed.

There is just no danger of secret voter fraud being an issue at a national level anywhere with physical ballots unless its in some third world country where we all know the election is corrupt and they barely bother to hide the fact and even there we know its happening.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Is gerrymandering even a factor anymore in federal politics? The house has gone Democrat the last 2 elections, and doesn't look like it is in danger any time soon.

For the House gerrymandering is very much a problem, its pretty much the only reason the Reps have a chance at the house.

The Senate, is basically institutional gerrymandering.

And the Electoral College is skewed because of the gerrymander that is the Senate. (every state basically gets 1 EV for every Congressperson and 1EV for every Senator, so Cali with 25x the population of Wy only gets 18x the Elector Votes) way less skewed than the Senate, but still skewed. The Solution to this is probably that there are not nearly enough congress people. The US has about 1.3x more Congresspeople compared to Canadas MPs and 9.5x the population. Without expanding congress the electoral College Skew will only get worse.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by #-3

For the House gerrymandering is very much a problem, its pretty much the only reason the Reps have a chance at the house.

The Senate, is basically institutional gerrymandering.

And the Electoral College is skewed because of the gerrymander that is the Senate. (every state basically gets 1 EV for every Congressperson and 1EV for every Senator, so Cali with 25x the population of Wy only gets 18x the Elector Votes) way less skewed than the Senate, but still skewed. The Solution to this is probably that there are not nearly enough congress people. The US has about 1.3x more Congresspeople compared to Canadas MPs and 9.5x the population. Without expanding congress the electoral College Skew will only get worse.

Puerto Rico and DC statehood would help if they could make it happen

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by 868904

All the talk about the votes seems mute at this point. Trump and the Republicans look like they are going to attempt a coup. It really doesn’t matter what the election results are.

We are witnessing the death of democracy in the US.

If they succeed it won't just be the end of democracy in the US, it will be the end of civilization. Millions will take the streets and Trump will order the military to take them on. It will be absolute anarchy. It is an absolutely terrifying thought.

[Dion]

nm

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by New Era

Some really interesting data that is coming out of this election. There is a big increase in Democrat ballots cast around the country, and most importantly the percentage of votes in each state. Here's a comparison between the 2016 and 2020 elections.

AL - 2016 D:34.4%, R:62.1%, 2020 D:36.5%, R:62.1%, Change D:+2.1%, R:Flat
AK - 2016 D:36.5%, R:51.2%, 2020 D:33.6%, R:62.2%, Change D:-2.9%, R:+11.0%
AZ - 2016 D:45.1%, R:48.7%, 2020 D:49.4%, R:49.0%, Change D:+4.3%, R:+0.3%
AR - 2016 D:33.6%, R:60.6%, 2020 D:34.6%, R:62.6%, Change D:+1.0%, R:+1.6%
CA - 2016 D:61.7%, R:31.6%, 2020 D:64.8%, R:33.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+1.6%
CO - 2016 D:48.1%, R:43.5%, 2020 D:55.4%, R:41.9%, Change D:+7.3%, R:+1.6%
CT - 2016 D:54.6%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:59.2%, R:39.2%, Change D:+4.6%, R:-1.7%
DE - 2016 D:53.1%, R:40.9%, 2020 D:58.8%, R:39.8%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.1%
DC - 2016 D:90.5%, R:4.10%, 2020 D:92.6%, R:5.20%, Change D:+2.1%, R:+1.1%
FL - 2016 D:47.8%, R:49.0%, 2020 D:47.8%, R:51.2%, Change D:Flat, R:+2.2%
GA - 2016 D:45.6%, R:50.7%, 2020 D:49.5%, R:49.2%, Change D:+3.9%, R:-0.3%
HI - 2016 D:62.2%, R:30.0%, 2020 D:63.7%, R:34.3%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+4.3%
ID - 2016 D:27.5%, R:59.3%, 2020 D:33.1%, R:63.8%, Change D:+5.6%, R:+4.5%
IL - 2016 D:55.8%, R:38.8%, 2020 D:55.5%, R:42.6%, Change D:-0.3%, R:+3.8%
IN - 2016 D:37.9%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:40.9%, R:57.0%, Change D:+3.0%, R:+0.2%
IA - 2016 D:41.7%, R:51.1%, 2020 D:44.9%, R:53.2%, Change D:+3.1%, R:+2.1%
KS - 2016 D:36.0%, R:56.7%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.5%, Change D:+5.3%, R:-0.2%
KY - 2016 D:32.7%, R:62.5%, 2020 D:36.2%, R:62.1%, Change D:+3.5%, R:-0.4%
LA - 2016 D:38.4%, R:58.1%, 2020 D:39.9%, R:58.5%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.4%
MA - 2016 D:60.0%, R:32.8%, 2020 D:65.2%, R:32.5%, Change D:+5.2%, R:-0.3%
MD - 2016 D:60.3%, R:33.9%, 2020 D:64.3%, R:33.8%, Change D:+4.0%, R:-0.1%
ME - 2016 D:47.8%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:53.5%, R:43.5%, Change D:+5.7%, R:-1.4%
MI - 2016 D:47.2%, R:47.5%, 2020 D:50.5%, R:47.9%, Change D:+3.3%, R:+0.4%
MN - 2016 D:46.4%, R:44.9%, 2020 D:52.5%, R:45.4%, Change D:+6.1%, R:+0.4%
MO - 2016 D:38.1%, R:56.8%, 2020 D:41.3%, R:56.9%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.1%
MS - 2016 D:40.1%, R:57.9%, 2020 D:39.0%, R:59.4%, Change D:-1.1%, R:+2.5%
NE - 2016 D:33.7%, R:58.8%, 2020 D:39.2%, R:58.5%, Change D:+5.5%, R:-0.3%
NV - 2016 D:47.9%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:50.2%, R:47.5%, Change D:+2.3%, R:+2.0%
NH - 2016 D:46.9%, R:46.6%, 2020 D:52.8%, R:45.5%, Change D:+5.9%, R:-1.1%
NJ - 2016 D:55.4%, R:41.4%, 2020 D:57.5%, R:41.0%, Change D:+2.1%, R:-0.4%
NM - 2016 D:48.3%, R:40.0%, 2020 D:54.2%, R:43.6%, Change D:+6.9%, R:+3.6%
NY - 2016 D:59.0%, R:36.5%, 2020 D:55.7%, R:42.9%, Change D:-3.2%, R:+6.4%
NC - 2016 D:46.1%, R:49.8%, 2020 D:48.7%, R:50.0%, Change D:+2.6%, R:+0.2%
ND - 2016 D:27.2%, R:62.9%, 2020 D:31.8%, R:65.1%, Change D:+4.6%, R:+2.2%
OH - 2016 D:43.6%, R:51.7%, 2020 D:45.2%, R:53.3%, Change D:+1.6%, R:+1.6%
OK - 2016 D:28.9%, R:65.3%, 2020 D:32.3%, R:65.4%, Change D:+3.4%, R:+0.1%
OR - 2016 D:50.7%, R:39.0%, 2020 D:56.5%, R:40.3%, Change D:+5.8%, R:+1.3%
PA - 2016 D:47.5%, R:48.2%, 2020 D:49.7%, R:49.0%, Change D:+1.5%, R:+0.8%
RI - 2016 D:54.4%, R:38.9%, 2020 D:59.6%, R:38.9%, Change D:+5.2%, R:Flat
SC - 2016 D:40.6%, R:54.9%, 2020 D:43.4%, R:55.1%, Change D:+2.8%, R:+0.2%
SD - 2016 D:31.7%, R:61.5%, 2020 D:35.6%, R:61.8%, Change D:+3.9%, R:+0.3%
TN - 2016 D:34.7%, R:60.7%, 2020 D:37.4%, R:60.7%, Change D:+2.7%, R:Flat
TX - 2016 D:43.2%, R:52.2%, 2020 D:46.4%, R:52.1%, Change D:+3.2%, R:-0.1%
UT - 2016 D:27.4%, R:45.5%, 2020 D:37.6%, R:58.3%, Change D:+10.2%, R:+12.8%
VA - 2016 D:49.7%, R:44.4%, 2020 D:54.1%, R:44.3%, Change D:+4.4%, R:-0.1%
VT - 2016 D:56.9%, R:30.3%, 2020 D:64.9%, R:31.7%, Change D:+8.0%, R:+1.4%
WA - 2016 D:52.5%, R:36.8%, 2020 D:58.5%, R:38.9%, Change D:+6.0%, R:+2.1%
WV - 2016 D:26.4%, R:68.5%, 2020 D:29.6%, R:68.7%, Change D:+3.2%, R:+0.2%
WY - 2016 D:21.6%, R:67.4%, 2020 D:26.6%, R:70.0%, Change D:+5.0%, R:+2.6%

One thing this does show for certain is the independent candidates in the 2016 election most definitely acted as a vote suck from Clinton and not from Trump. The shift as a result has definitely gone back to the Dems, and the only thing from really making the Republicans a skid marks in the shorts of democracy is gerrymandering. When you are losing the vote shift like this, and maintaining your segment, the only way you win is by stacking the deck.

Is this one of those magic eye pictures where you see something in the noise? God. That is a dizzying slate of data laid out the way you have here. Perhaps a bar graph might be in order?

[vegasbound]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Is gerrymandering even a factor anymore in federal politics? The house has gone Democrat the last 2 elections, and doesn't look like it is in danger any time soon.

Look at Dan Crenshaw's (R) district (TX-2) and how gerrymandered it is. It's still a problem.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Is this one of those magic eye pictures where you see something in the noise? God. That is a dizzying slate of data laid out the way you have here. Perhaps a bar graph might be in order?

Try moving things up and down with your mouse, really fast.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Puerto Rico and DC statehood would help if they could make it happen

I think Puerto Rico would probably skew towards Republicans over time, Latin America is just a very socially conservative place compared to North America.

The problem is really more around Branding, Honesty, Education, Willingness to act in Good faith.

In an ideal world the real solution would to address the powers of the Senate. I think its fair to have a body where the states big and small can interact as equals, but it can't be used as a tool of obstruction. In my mind the Senate should require a supermajority to overturn anything the house does. But that a constitutional problem, anything stronger you probably risk getting into Canadian territory where the Senate is not effective enough. But I also think 2 year terms are way too short for Congress people, it's probably part of the reason the US campaign cycle never ends, they only get about 4 months to do their job before they have to turn back to getting re-elected.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by #-3

For the House gerrymandering is very much a problem, its pretty much the only reason the Reps have a chance at the house.

The Senate, is basically institutional gerrymandering.

And the Electoral College is skewed because of the gerrymander that is the Senate. (every state basically gets 1 EV for every Congressperson and 1EV for every Senator, so Cali with 25x the population of Wy only gets 18x the Elector Votes) way less skewed than the Senate, but still skewed. The Solution to this is probably that there are not nearly enough congress people. The US has about 1.3x more Congresspeople compared to Canadas MPs and 9.5x the population. Without expanding congress the electoral College Skew will only get worse.

I agree it affects the house, but it hasn't had any affect on 2018 or 2020, and Trump/Trumpism/Tea Partism has changed the map enough to make some gerrymandering efforts backfire.

The other things you are describing aren't related to Gerrymandering. If I'm not mistaken Gerrymandering is artificially drawing and re-drawing districts to siphon off unneeded areas from very partisan congressional districts to districts that are much closer.

The Senate and the EC have been as they are forever, and even though they do give small, rural states a disproportional amount of power, it was not due to any recent partisan manipulation.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by vegasbound

Look at Dan Crenshaw's (R) district (TX-2) and how gerrymandered it is. It's still a problem.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1060126370469167105

For those wondering