The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Rogers behaves like a public corporation in every one of it's baseball decisions, and saving public face is key. There's going to be a serious revolt in Toronto if both those guys leave after publicly stating they wanted to stay.

So do you want them to behave like a public corporation and bow to fan pressure or not?
Do you not want them to make the right baseball decisions regardless of irrational fan opinion.
I also don't think there will be a serious revolt if the team does well next year.
Winning is what matters. If they still have a good team the fan base won't care.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Good find. What I was able to pull out of that:

-Jays are 18th in batting average with runners in scoring position
-Jay are 10th in terms of actual runners scored when runners are in scoring position
-Jays are tied for 1st with number of home runs when runners are in scoring position

I'd think that tends to show that the Jays are heavily reliant on the home run, although I wouldn't say they are terrible at "manufacturing" runs (sidebar: what the heck does manufacturing runs really mean anyway? Home runs and runs scored off single are counted the same; are both not manufactured by the team?). They are simply a team built to win with the long ball and are below average at scoring with non-home run hits.

The Jays have even better numbers with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.

OPS is pretty key in this area. If people are getting on base its still a good thing with others in scoring position. Also, a higher slugging percentage moves runners further along.

According to Fangraphs, OPS is far more determinitive for scoring runs with runners on than AVG or HR. The Jays are OPS machines; hence why we have one of the best offences in baseball.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/t...ring-position/

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

The Jays have the third-worst batting average with no runners on (.243). That's an interesting stat to me.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JayP

I like how in your world the quality of pitching ramping up only affects the ability to hit home runs. Guess what? You can't expect to get as many clutch hits with runners in scoring position either against other teams' aces. That's kind of why they're aces - they limit the ability to score runs in any capacity.

Offense as a whole goes down in the playoffs - not just for teams with power. The stats actually show that teams that rely on power have their offensive production drop less than teams that rely on small ball (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ml...yths-to-ignore).

Sure offenxe goes down across the board, but if you can't bring a guy home from second with no outs because you really solely on power, you are a lot worse off than a team that only needs a little bloop single.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

So do you want them to behave like a public corporation and bow to fan pressure or not?
Do you not want them to make the right baseball decisions regardless of irrational fan opinion.
I also don't think there will be a serious revolt if the team does well next year.
Winning is what matters. If they still have a good team the fan base won't care.

I want them to do what's right for the team which is singing Edwin and letting Bautista walk.

What im saying is I keep hearing that it's a given they both leave. I don't think that's the case. Too much potential for blow back for this from the fans. You're crazy if you don't think the fans will lose their collective mind in Toronto of both or those guys walks. These guys are the face of the franchise and this isn't a situation like Iginla where the teams sucks and need to rebuild so the fans will understand. This isn't David Price here, these are long serving Jays who the fans are emotionally attached to. Whether it's true or not, both these guys have said publicly they want to remain.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Sure offenxe goes down across the board, but if you can't bring a guy home from second with no outs because you really solely on power, you are a lot worse off than a team that only needs a little bloop single.

Perhaps, but if you have power you can turn a 2 out walk into a multi-run inning pretty quick. You also the threat of scoring at any time, even if no one is on base, and the ability to rack up multiple runs in a very short period of time.

I really don't think anyone is arguing that the Jays are not a power first offense, but we (or at least I am) are refuting the claim that you need to play "small ball" in the playoffs to win.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Sure offenxe goes down across the board, but if you can't bring a guy home from second with no outs because you really solely on power, you are a lot worse off than a team that only needs a little bloop single.

Power guys get bloop singles, too.

For every high k% team that misses the PO's (Mil, SD, TB) there are low SO% teams that have bad offences (LAA, OAK, NYY) - Looking at the stats, high SO doesn't make an offence good or bad.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_...ded/order/true

I totally get it. I wish we didn't strike out as much, i wish our AVG was higher, but we don't.

We do have a great offense despite this. Pillar is really the only one below average in terms of hitting (80 OPS+) and pillar and smoak are the only regulars with OBP lower that 320. (Smoak at 313, pillar at 922).

There are maybe 3 "weak spots" in the starting nine come POs.

Martin (.241/.340/.392) plays the worst offensive position in the game, traditionally, but gets on base and plays top 5 defence in AL at the position.

Smoak (.220/.313/.403). Decent fielder but obviously 1B could be an upgrade if he didnt sign a new deal. I don't know what the rational for that was.

Pillar (.261/.292/.385) again, plays a defensive first position and one of the better defenders in the league.

While each one of these guys is offensively below average on this team, they also help the Jays have one of the best defences in the league.

Everyone else in the top nine is above average by a pretty big margin.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Perhaps, but if you have power you can turn a 2 out walk into a multi-run inning pretty quick. You also the threat of scoring at any time, even if no one is on base, and the ability to rack up multiple runs in a very short period of time.

I really don't think anyone is arguing that the Jays are not a power first offense, but we (or at least I am) are refuting the claim that you need to play "small ball" in the playoffs to win.

I don't think you need to play small ball to win, but I think you need to be able to at least be able to dabble in it if need be. I don't think the Jays can do that.

Like someone said a couple of pages ago, look at the game 6 against Kansas. They had speed on third with I think no outs (may have been 1), and they were unable to bring that guy home to tie the game. That's ludicrous. I was mad for the longest time with Gibby for not bunting there, and than I reflected on it a bit in the winter, and was like " Why am I mad with Gibby, the Jays don't even have a guy capable of laying down a bunt so what's he supposed to do". Watching some of these guys try and bunt last year was cringe worthy (Pillar and Revere being the worst offenders) .


They live and die by the long ball, which is fine. Seems to be working out for us, but I don't think you can argue that it doesn't lead to a lot worse of an offence drought when some things go wrong than a lot of other teams deal with. Sure someone can pull up some stat that shows they are middle of the pack or whatever, but that's an average over the time where everything averages out. When the Jays stop hitting home runs, it's downright brutal.

That said, I don't think it matters as much this year. Last year there were teams like Houston and Kansas in the playoffs. The teams in the hunt this year, outside of Cleveland, are all basically mashers like the Jays with pretty pedestrian pitching. Small ball may only be a factor in the World Series against the NL.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I don't think you need to play small ball to win, but I think you need to be able to at least be able to dabble in it if need be. I don't think the Jays can do that.

Like someone said a couple of pages ago, look at the game 6 against Kansas. They had speed on third with I think no outs (may have been 1), and they were unable to bring that guy home to tie the game. That's ludicrous. I was mad for the longest time with Gibby for not bunting there, and than I reflected on it a bit in the winter, and was like " Why am I mad with Gibby, the Jays don't even have a guy capable of laying down a bunt so what's he supposed to do". Watching some of these guys try and bunt last year was cringe worthy (Pillar and Revere being the worst offenders) .


They live and die by the long ball, which is fine. Seems to be working out for us, but I don't think you can argue that it doesn't lead to a lot worse of an offence drought when some things go wrong than a lot of other teams deal with. Sure someone can pull up some stat that shows they are middle of the pack or whatever, but that's an average over the time where everything averages out. When the Jays stop hitting home runs, it's downright brutal.

That said, I don't think it matters as much this year. Last year there were teams like Houston and Kansas in the playoffs. The teams in the hunt this year, outside of Cleveland, are all basically mashers like the Jays with pretty pedestrian pitching. Small ball may only be a factor in the World Series against the NL.

Thankfully, two of those outs in Game 6 are no longer on the team (Navarro and Revere).

I hate comparing any team to KC because of that $#%#ty teams luck over the past 2-3 years.

Houston is worse than any of the above teams when talking about power hitters who don't hit for average.

I agree though, the road to the WS will run through many teams with big offence and little pitching. Thankfully, the jays have big offence and big pitching.

At the end of the day, the team that makes the WS will be the hot team. Baseball is so streaky, its absolutely insane that a 162 game season can be decided by 1 - 5 - 7 game series.

On another note:

I wonder if the jays will make any final moves before Aug 31?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Thankfully, two of those outs in Game 6 are no longer on the team (Navarro and Revere).

I hate comparing any team to KC because of that $#%#ty teams luck over the past 2-3 years.

Houston is worse than any of the above teams when talking about power hitters who don't hit for average.

I agree though, the road to the WS will run through many teams with big offence and little pitching. Thankfully, the jays have big offence and big pitching.

At the end of the day, the team that makes the WS will be the hot team. Baseball is so streaky, its absolutely insane that a 162 game season can be decided by 1 - 5 - 7 game series.

On another note:

I wonder if the jays will make any final moves before Aug 31?

I was mentioning Houston from a pitching perspective. They had unreal starters last year. They are definitely worse than Toronto from a feast or famine at the plate perspective.

[Underdog]

With guys like Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Stroman and Sanchez, I think the team will be just fine without 2 older "faces of the franchise". Sure, Bautista and EE used to be all the team had and we needed those guys. But I like to think the fan base is smart enough to know it's time to move on.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Underdog

With guys like Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Stroman and Sanchez, I think the team will be just fine without 2 older "faces of the franchise". Sure, Bautista and EE used to be all the team had and we needed those guys. But I like to think the fan base is smart enough to know it's time to move on.

Time to move on from Edwin? Give me a break, he's the best DH in the game and can routinely play first base.

There's moving on, and there's letting them walk without resigning adequate replacements. Moving on an simply plugging the hole is what will send Jays land into a frenzy if it occurs.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Who people think i'm negative, you should check out McGrattan's tweets on the Jays. I don't think he's a fan of Shapiro and Atkins.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Time to move on from Edwin? Give me a break, he's the best DH in the game and can routinely play first base.

There's moving on, and there's letting them walk without resigning adequate replacements. Moving on an simply plugging the hole is what will send Jays land into a frenzy if it occurs.

If we fail to resign either, I hope we make a play for Joey Votto. always a fave, and I think his style could work well with age.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Who people think i'm negative, you should check out McGrattan's tweets on the Jays. I don't think he's a fan of Shapiro and Atkins.

No thanks - you're already more negative than I want to deal with. Your constant whining about Thole, Rogers, pretty much anything you don't personally agree with makes this thread a real chore to read. For someone who claims to be a fan, you are pretty down on a team leading the AL East by 1.5 games.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Cappy

If we fail to resign either, I hope we make a play for Joey Votto. always a fave, and I think his style could work well with age.

Sportsnet radio had a piece on that a couple of days ago.

Can you imagine having Edwin at DH and Votto at 1st base (alternating the two)? A man can only dream.

I think I read somewhere once though that Votto has some sort of anxiety disorder or something along those lines and doesn't like the spotlight. I don't think he'd sign in Toronto even if Rogers was willing to break the bank as a result. Too much media attention in Toronto, especially with the whole hometown hero angle.

[whosurnabby]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Time to move on from Edwin? Give me a break, he's the best DH in the game and can routinely play first base.

There's moving on, and there's letting them walk without resigning adequate replacements. Moving on an simply plugging the hole is what will send Jays land into a frenzy if it occurs.

That's why Edwing will command a ton of $$$ in the offseason. Personally, I'd like to management capitalize (negotiation-wise) on Jose Bautista's below average 2016 season. If Shapiro-Atkins can convince him to be the primary DH, he's perfect and he'll be given the opportunity to retire as a Blue Jay. Let Edwin walk, despite him being super awesome. I'd keep Jose just because it's JOSE F'IN BAUTISTA. Bats' poor season so far have priced him out of a fat contract when it comes to negotiations, even him and his agent knows this fact.

Stats wise, a healthy and strictly DH Bautista (personality/ego aside) is way better than a hot Edwin Encarnacion. His pitch recognition and eye for the strikezone is just damn ELITE. My 2 Cents.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by whosurnabby

That's why Edwing will command a ton of $$$ in the offseason. Personally, I'd like to management capitalize (negotiation-wise) on Jose Bautista's below average 2016 season. If Shapiro-Atkins can convince him to be the primary DH, he's perfect and he'll be given the opportunity to retire as a Blue Jay. Let Edwin walk, despite him being super awesome. I'd keep Jose just because it's JOSE F'IN BAUTISTA. Bats' poor season so far have priced him out of a fat contract when it comes to negotiations, even him and his agent knows this fact.

Stats wise, a healthy and strictly DH Bautista (personality/ego aside) is way better than a hot Edwin Encarnacion. My 2 Cents.

What would be awesome is if they signed Edwin long term, and Jose was willing to take a one year contract to try and build up his value again. Wishful thinking on my part though. I don't think Jose can wait another year if there is someone out there willing to pay him on a 4-5 year contract. A second poor year would really tank his value.

[whosurnabby]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

What would be awesome is if they signed Edwin long term, and Jose was willing to take a one year contract to try and build up his value again. Wishful thinking on my part though. I don't think Jose can wait another year if there is someone out there willing to pay him on a 4-5 year contract. A second poor year would really tank his value.

Amen. That's a realistic scenario too. There's been speculations that, with his poor season, maybe*, just maybe, Shapiro-Atkins can convince him to sign the qualifying offer for next year to rebuild his value.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Canadian Little Leaguer bringing out the Ed-Wing at the LLWS.

http://www.tsn.ca/must-see/video/mus...ed-wing~934145