The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[JiriHrdina]

If I look ahead to next year this is what I see
- A good starting rotation. Way better shape than we would have thought a year ago. Will a guy like Happ be as good, maybe not. But a guy like Stroman could take a step forward
- Average bull pen that will always need work. But the fact they have, what appears to be, an elite closer is a great advantage
- Strong bats in Donaldson, Tulo, Travis
- Good enough bats in Pillar, Martin, and Upton if he can find his swing again
- Good to great defense, particularly up the middle

So the primary holes are
- 2 outfielders. One which I say would have to be a good bat.
- A DH/1B with power and production if EE walks

But there is enough there to form the basis of a strong team still into next year.

I'm really not worried about losing Jose - he has contributed very little to the teams' record this season. Losing EE will suck because he has been money. But they could always bring Jose Canseco out of retirement.

Even with some uncertainty in the off-season, there is a lot to look forward to and be positive about.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If I look ahead to next year this is what I see
- A good starting rotation. Way better shape than we would have thought a year ago. Will a guy like Happ be as good, maybe not. But a guy like Stroman could take a step forward
- Average bull pen that will always need work. But the fact they have, what appears to be, an elite closer is a great advantage
- Strong bats in Donaldson, Tulo, Travis
- Good enough bats in Pillar, Martin, and Upton if he can find his swing again
- Good to great defense, particularly up the middle

So the primary holes are
- 2 outfielders. One which I say would have to be a good bat.
- A DH/1B with power and production if EE walks

But there is enough there to form the basis of a strong team still into next year.

I'm really not worried about losing Jose - he has contributed very little to the teams' record this season. Losing EE will suck because he has been money. But they could always bring Jose Canseco out of retirement.

Even with some uncertainty in the off-season, there is a lot to look forward to and be positive about.

That's the making of a good not great team though and good teams don't make the post season. I think fans should really savour this season as they may take a bit of a step back next season.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's the making of a good not great team though and good teams don't make the post season. I think fans should really savour this season as they may take a bit of a step back next season.

Don't forget our newest DH, Eric "Godzilla" Thames.

There are also some decent potential free agents that could fill some holes in the OF and DH/1B


But i disagree. I think we should continue to complain about Josh Thole and how he is ruining everything about this team and this season. Bautista's bad season is directly related to that tire fire.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's the making of a good not great team though and good teams don't make the post season. I think fans should really savour this season as they may take a bit of a step back next season.

Yep, lots of good teams in the league, but it's not like the NHL where you need to be a top half team to be a playoff contender.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's the making of a good not great team though and good teams don't make the post season. I think fans should really savour this season as they may take a bit of a step back next season.

Agreed but if you are heading into the off-season with a rotation in place and a good line-up, you stand a much better position to fill those holes.
A strong rotation can make up for a lot of other weaknesses elsewhere - as we have even seen lately with this team.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's the making of a good not great team though and good teams don't make the post season. I think fans should really savour this season as they may take a bit of a step back next season.

Good teams make the playoffs all the time in baseball though. There's so much randomness and luck involved that even with 162 games, good teams can find a way in and great teams can miss.

Look at this year - the Rangers have a +7 run differential (8th in the AL) and have the best record in the AL. Teams like the Tigers, Marlins, and Pirates have run differentials barely above 0 and they are right in the thick of the wild card hunt. They might not make it, but chances are one of those teams finds a way in. All those teams have major flaws, but that's just baseball - even the playoff teams have those.

[868904]

It really doesn't matter if you have some holes at the beginning of the season as long as you have the foundation for a good team, and the Jays do have that for next season.

Like Jiri said, the holes can be filled. I'm not worried about the bullpen because relievers are so erractic. You just have to hope things work out and if they don't, you adjust, which is exactly what the Jays have done this year. They acquired a big name in Storen and failed miserably and went to the scrap heap and found Grilli. With relievers, it's about fit and chemistry. There's no need to pay top dollar for relievers.

I actually think the biggest problem with the Jays is their inability to manufacture runs. I know that they have the big hitters and live with the long ball, but it wouldn't hurt to at least try and develop the ability to play a little small ball.

It still infuriates me about how the ALCS ended last year. Pompey on third with no outs and one run down, and they couldn't get him home. They couldn't put a bunt down or have the right player (pinch hitter) to put a good bunt down.

Not much has changed this year, they still have difficulty manufacturing a run when they run into good pitching. You would have thought that after the ALCS last year, Gibbons might want to try and develop the ability to manufacture runs, but as we've seen, he's stubborn as hell and will live and die with the long ball.

I don't see the Jays making it past the Indians in a ALDS or ALCS. They better hope they get any of the AL east teams or Texas.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by 868904

I actually think the biggest problem with the Jays is their inability to manufacture runs. I know that they have the big hitters and live with the long ball, but it wouldn't hurt to at least try and develop the ability to play a little small ball.

It still infuriates me about how the ALCS ended last year. Pompey on third with no outs and one run down, and they couldn't get him home. They couldn't put a bunt down or have the right player (pinch hitter) to put a good bunt down.

Not much has changed this year, they still have difficulty manufacturing a run when they run into good pitching. You would have thought that after the ALCS last year, Gibbons might want to try and develop the ability to manufacture runs, but as we've seen, he's stubborn as hell and will live and die with the long ball.

I don't see the Jays making it past the Indians in a ALDS or ALCS. They better hope they get any of the AL east teams or Texas.

Every fanbase in the league thinks their team sucks at manufacturing runs. I'd like to see some evidence that the Jays are worse at it than other teams. I think it's more a product of the Jays being on base a ton so there's a lot more opportunities to manufacture runs - and a lot more opportunities to fail and have the fans remember.

And last year's ALCS game 6 was more a problem with awful umpiring than the Jays inability to manufacture runs. Pretty hard to even put a ball in play when the ump is giving the best closer in baseball strikes 6 inches off the plate (three times it happened). It allows him to expand the zone and the Jays hitters were forced to just hack at anything remotely close.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Cappy

In the one league with no salary cap it is all too easy to rag on the owners to spend more money. Toronto isnt the only team in the league that suffers from this.

Minnesota
Oakland
Pirates
Rockies
White Sox
Even the Rangers a few years ago.


In terms of the off season, that is another question. Sound baseball teams with the pockets might not even want to sign all our free agents. Saunders, Bautista, Edwin etc.

We are one of the oldest teams in the league, one of the oldest power hitting teams in the league. Outside of a few guys, power doesn't age well. Do you push another 20 million per to two power hitters on the wrong side of 30? for how many years?

If the jays fail to sign either of Edwin or Bautista, i honestly don't think i could fault the logic. Would i disagree? of course, but I'm not the owners/GM who look at the Phillies with all their wasted money (still paying 133 million) and say that is something i want to follow

I'm fine with walking away from Bautista so long as some big bat is brought in to replace him, but there's no way in hell there's any logic associated with walking away from Edwin. Aside from the fact that he is a run producing machine that deserves every penny he is going to get, if the Jays don't sign there's probably a 95% chance he's going to sign with the Red Sox or Yankees and remain in the division.

[TheAlpineOracle]

I honestly don't think there's any way the Jays cannot sign at least one of Bautista or Edwin regardless of price tag. The fan backlash would be far too severe and probably directed at Rogers. There's even going to be some if they don't sign both, but bringing back neither would create a PR nightmare.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by JayP

Every fanbase in the league thinks their team sucks at manufacturing runs. I'd like to see some evidence that the Jays are worse at it than other teams. I think it's more a product of the Jays being on base a ton so there's a lot more opportunities to manufacture runs - and a lot more opportunities to fail and have the fans remember.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/by..._2016&sort=722

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I honestly don't think there's any way the Jays cannot sign at least one of Bautista or Edwin regardless of price tag. The fan backlash would be far too severe and probably directed at Rogers. There's even going to be some if they don't sign both, but bringing back neither would create a PR nightmare.

Do you think signing Bautista to a long-term deal with big dollars is the right move regardless of the PR.
Baseball decisions should never be made for PR reasons - good or bad.

Given his rapid decline this season in almost every part of his game - I don't want the team to re-sign him. Period.

EE I would love to see back. But he has to want to come back.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Cappy

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/by..._2016&sort=722

Good find. What I was able to pull out of that:

-Jays are 18th in batting average with runners in scoring position
-Jay are 10th in terms of actual runners scored when runners are in scoring position
-Jays are tied for 1st with number of home runs when runners are in scoring position

I'd think that tends to show that the Jays are heavily reliant on the home run, although I wouldn't say they are terrible at "manufacturing" runs (sidebar: what the heck does manufacturing runs really mean anyway? Home runs and runs scored off single are counted the same; are both not manufactured by the team?). They are simply a team built to win with the long ball and are below average at scoring with non-home run hits.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I'm not even sure the Jays qualify Bautista at this point. There are much better ways to spend $16m, especially if EE is retained.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I'm not even sure the Jays qualify Bautista at this point. There are much better ways to spend $16m, especially if EE is retained.

If they don't qualify him - they don't get the compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere.
But yeah - not sure you want to spend that coin on him.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If they don't qualify him - they don't get the compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere.
But yeah - not sure you want to spend that coin on him.

I understand that but at this point I think he will just take the qualifying offer. Barring a resurgent final 40 games/playoff impact, that is the best offer he will get. So I don't think the pick will really be available, it will be a keep Bautista or don't scenario.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I'm not even sure the Jays qualify Bautista at this point.

Don't be ridicules. Of course you qualify Bautista... there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. Odds are he says no and you collect the draft pick, if he says yes and rebounds with the stick playing 1B/DH then you got him way underpriced, if comes back a 1B/DH and bats about the same then you're maybe overpaying him a little in UFA terms but not much, if he comes back and completely craps the bed... oh well it's just for a year.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Do you think signing Bautista to a long-term deal with big dollars is the right move regardless of the PR.
Baseball decisions should never be made for PR reasons - good or bad.

Given his rapid decline this season in almost every part of his game - I don't want the team to re-sign him. Period.

EE I would love to see back. But he has to want to come back.

I don't think bringing Bautista back is good at all unless it's a one year deal (which may actually be possible now give his season).

Signing EE is imperative. It never should have got to this point. I just think that if EE leaves Bautista will be back because Rogers won't want to be blamed for losing both faces of the franchise regardless if it makes sense or not from a baseball perspective.

Rogers behaves like a public corporation in every one of it's baseball decisions, and saving public face is key. There's going to be a serious revolt in Toronto if both those guys leave after publicly stating they wanted to stay.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Good find. What I was able to pull out of that:

-Jays are 18th in batting average with runners in scoring position
-Jay are 10th in terms of actual runners scored when runners are in scoring position
-Jays are tied for 1st with number of home runs when runners are in scoring position

I'd think that tends to show that the Jays are heavily reliant on the home run, although I wouldn't say they are terrible at "manufacturing" runs (sidebar: what the heck does manufacturing runs really mean anyway? Home runs and runs scored off single are counted the same; are both not manufactured by the team?). They are simply a team built to win with the long ball and are below average at scoring with non-home run hits.

That's a serious problem in the playoffs though when the quality of the pitching amps up. You can't expect to hit 3-4 home runs a game when you are facing the other teams' aces.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That's a serious problem in the playoffs though when the quality of the pitching amps up. You can't expect to hit 3-4 home runs a game when you are facing the other teams' aces.

I like how in your world the quality of pitching ramping up only affects the ability to hit home runs. Guess what? You can't expect to get as many clutch hits with runners in scoring position either against other teams' aces. That's kind of why they're aces - they limit the ability to score runs in any capacity.

Offense as a whole goes down in the playoffs - not just for teams with power. The stats actually show that teams that rely on power have their offensive production drop less than teams that rely on small ball (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ml...yths-to-ignore).