2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if before the trade from Edmonton happened he needed to agree that he wouldn't block a trade and would be willing to be exposed in the expansion draft.

He also probably knew he wouldn't be taken.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Forget Patrick Marleau costing a 1st with 1 year left? I guess the buyout implication was a factor there

Based on what you are saying it should be a breeze to ship out Lucic and/or Monahan on Seattle?

Not a breeze, but very likely doable. For a lot of teams, a veteran expiring UFA is more desirable than filling that gap through UFA, where getting a good player will require term.

Monahan's injury issue may complicate things for him - the return would probably be more conditional.

There are lots of potential partners, but ANA jumps out to me for one or both of them.
One option could be sending John Moore (2.75AAV, $2.25) the other way - maybe even 50% retained - ANA would actually be saving cash in that case (if it's just Lucic).

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Hard to say, but I could see Lucic waiving his NTC if asked. He allowed himself to be exposed in the expansion draft after all.

He's currently got a 10 team Yes list - I could see him at least expanding it to 16 or 20.

Originally Posted by MrMike

If Gaudreau signs with us and Tkachuk makes it clear he won’t sign an extension, would trading him with 50% retained bring back a monster return?

Imagine being able to drop a 100 pt player for a sub 5 mill cap hit for a year if you are really trying to make a run.

Flames can't really afford to do the retention unless Johnny has walked.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Because Calgary doesn’t want JVR and Seattle can help get the deal done.

But Seattle doesn't want JVR either. At best, he'll help them win a couple of extra games in '22-23 and harm their draft position.

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

And Bishop+7th to Buffalo showed that it's easy to move cap if it doesn't come with term and money behind it.

It showed nothing of the kind.

Buffalo needed a way to make the cap floor without spending actual cash. Bishop's salary is covered by insurance, according to reports that multiple posters here have cited.

If you want a true index of the value of cap dumps, look at some of the trades Arizona has made in the last year or two. It's much higher than that:

• 2nd and 7th to take on Gostisbehere
• 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and 3rd in 2023 to take on Ladd

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It showed nothing of the kind.

If you want a true index of the value of cap dumps, look at some of the trades Arizona has made in the last year or two. It's much higher than that:

• 2nd and 7th to take on Gostisbehere
• 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and 3rd in 2023 to take on Ladd

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

And Bishop+7th to Buffalo showed that it's easy to move cap if it doesn't come with term and money behind it.

Think you missed the bolded part of the sentence?

Lucic, after his bonus (probably paid tomorrow depending on wording in contract), is going to be making league minimum (0.825M due to the Oilers retention). So even if he is a warm body, he's taking a place of a warm body that would be making as much or more. So he doesn't have any more "cash" associated with him than Bishop really (which we don't know how much insurance is on the hook for though we can likely speculate the entire amount).

Ladd had $5,000,000.00 left on his contract when they acquired him for 2 years. A league minimum player would be making $1,450,000.00 over those 2 years for a net negative of $3,550,000 to the Yotes for taking him on.
Gostisbehere had $4,25,000.00 left on his contract when they acquired him for 2 years. A league minimum player results in a net negative of $2,800,000 to the Yotes for taking him on.

Ladd especially was expected to be a healthy scratch (or LTIR) but Gostisbehere was often a healthy scratch for the Flyers and had cleared waivers. Lucic played in every game for a divisional champion team and would cost a mere $75,000 more than a league minimum player for them. They just aren't comparable situations.

But Ladd and Gost also came with that 2nd year adding to uncertainty. Lucic doesn't have that and the Yotes are currently 13M away from the floor with 17 players signed. Their five RFAs are Crouse, Hayton (24 points), Fischer (10 points), Capobianco (45 games in the NHL, 20 in the AHL), Dineen (34 games in the NHL, 21 in the AHL) so the only one looking at much more than league minimum is Crouse. If they sign Hayton, Fischer, Capobianco and Dineen for 4M, that requires them to sign Crouse and a backup goalie for 9M if they don't sign any UFA of note or take on a cap dump. That's not enough to reach the floor.

Lucic and his 5M+ cap hit though would mean they don't need to worry about the floor. Again, if Lucic was willing to waive or has Arizona on his list of places he would be traded to he needs to submit tomorrow, then I think Arizona would give up something for him, not just be willing to take him on. They get a quality player at 0.825M and now can spend below the floor.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Apples and oranges.

He had zero chance to be picked in the expansion draft as he had term left.

It was also Seattle near his home and Vegas may have ruined his (our) perception on the competitiveness of expansion teams. Had he realized they would be as bad as they were, he may not have agreed to waive even if the chance was soooo slim.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Flames can't really afford to do the retention unless Johnny has walked.

What if it pulled in a Lafrenierre type player? Just as an example, cheaper contract, monster return who would be cheap for us. That's what I was thinking or along with those talking about those New Jersey deals, maybe a player/prospect entry level who can step into second line winger minutes while say Tofolli or Mang takes over first line duties.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Think you missed the bolded part of the sentence?

Cap always comes with some term. Except in the case of fully insured contracts of players on LTIR-retirement, it always comes with money. So the bolded part of the sentence, while technically true, is irrelevant to most teams' problems.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Cap always comes with some term. Except in the case of fully insured contracts of players on LTIR-retirement, it always comes with money. So the bolded part of the sentence, while technically true, is irrelevant to most teams' problems.

Arizona pays you $750,000 to sit in the pressbox or pays Lucic $825,000 to sit in the pressbox. That's $75,000 difference. Right? If the Flames retain $75,001 does it all of a sudden jump from a cap dump like Ladd (multiple 2nd round picks) to a cap dump like Bishop (7th round pick)?

But now Arizona pays you $750,000 to sit in the pressbox and otherwise ices a roster of $61M to stay above the floor, or pays Lucic $825,000 to sit in the pressbox and ices a roster of $57M to stay above the floor thanks to Lucic's cap hit. All of a sudden they are saving 4M...that's why Bishop was traded for nothing, and why Lucic (if he waived) would be at least able to do.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Craig Anderson re-signed in Buffalo, so I guess that's one goalie off the Oilers radar.

[OptimalTates]

And maybe because of covid but also more because of Chicago/Kane shenanigans turning into the LTIR manipulation, teams like Tampa and Vegas are above the cap with full intention of being so with the Weber/Seabrook contracts.

In years past it was rarer (Horton in Toronto) that teams intentionally went above the cap willingly. But now Anaheim still needs to spend 17M to reach the cap floor, Detroit needs 14M, Buffalo needs 12M. Yes they have RFA and probably UFAs to sign, but there's a lot of cap space to go around right now.

Also Datsyuk and the 16th were traded for the 20th and 53rd. Another sign that if there isn't money implications, the costs are minimal.

[Roof-Daddy]

Detroit I could see being a good landing spot for Monahan, to be honest.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

And maybe because of covid but also more because of Chicago/Kane shenanigans turning into the LTIR manipulation, teams like Tampa and Vegas are above the cap with full intention of being so with the Weber/Seabrook contracts.

In years past it was rarer (Horton in Toronto) that teams intentionally went above the cap willingly. But now Anaheim still needs to spend 17M to reach the cap floor, Detroit needs 14M, Buffalo needs 12M. Yes they have RFA and probably UFAs to sign, but there's a lot of cap space to go around right now.

Also Datsyuk and the 16th were traded for the 20th and 53rd. Another sign that if there isn't money implications, the costs are minimal.

Wasn't Chychrun grabbed with that pick?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Wasn't Chychrun grabbed with that pick?

Yep, a faller like Barzal and Fowler (Gormley too and many others).

Funny enough the 20th ended up being a bust (though the expansion draft claim) but the 53rd is Hronek who isn't a bad pick at all.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Detroit I could see being a good landing spot for Monahan, to be honest.

Yzerman has nothing to do with that. He doesn't take chances, he knows exactly what he is doing.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Arizona pays you $750,000 to sit in the pressbox or pays Lucic $825,000 to sit in the pressbox. That's $75,000 difference. Right? If the Flames retain $75,001 does it all of a sudden jump from a cap dump like Ladd (multiple 2nd round picks) to a cap dump like Bishop (7th round pick)?

But now Arizona pays you $750,000 to sit in the pressbox and otherwise ices a roster of $61M to stay above the floor, or pays Lucic $825,000 to sit in the pressbox and ices a roster of $57M to stay above the floor thanks to Lucic's cap hit. All of a sudden they are saving 4M...that's why Bishop was traded for nothing, and why Lucic (if he waived) would be at least able to do.

The cases are not comparable. Bishop will never play again. Lucic is an active roster player.

Buffalo acquired Bishop's cap hit so they could meet the cap floor on paper only.

Lucic, if anyone acquires him to sit in the pressbox, will be paid actual dollars for not playing. The alternative is not to add a different player at league minimum, but to add nobody and leave that seat in the pressbox empty. That won't help a team like Arizona make the salary floor, but there again, the alternative is to acquire an LTIR-eligible contract from a team that is willing to pay a high price to get rid of it. There are several such teams, and I think most of us know which ones they are.

Now, as it happens, because Lucic can still play effectively in a 4th-line role, I expect him to have a small positive trade value after his bonus is paid. But that's a very different thing from a paper transaction to acquire a player who can't play.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Lucic, if anyone acquires him to sit in the pressbox, will be paid actual dollars for not playing. The alternative is not to add a different player at league minimum, but to add nobody and leave that seat in the pressbox empty.

No team goes with a less than 23 man roster if they aren't up against the cap. It's never ever ever happened. Whether it's some AHL scrub making $750,000 or an actual decent NHL quality player like Lucic, they'll have someone chowing down on popcorn in that box. And if you're proposing that a team not have a full roster, then Lucic's cap hit again becomes beneficial as it helps them get to the floor with only 22 players instead of 23 or whatever.

But that's assuming Lucic wouldn't just make the on-ice team which he probably would.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

No team goes with a less than 23 man roster if they aren't up against the cap. It's never ever ever happened.

I am pretty certain that your ‘never ever ever’ is wrong, but I do not at the moment have leisure to go over the last 17 years of cap history of every team in the league.

If they're trying to avoid spending to the salary floor, then they are up against an internal budget, and carrying fewer than 23 players is an easy and obvious way to stay within that budget.

And if you're proposing that a team not have a full roster, then Lucic's cap hit again becomes beneficial as it helps them get to the floor with only 22 players instead of 23 or whatever.

You obviously didn't read what I said. Here are the alternatives I proposed:

1. Acquire Lucic and sit him in the press box just for the sake of his cap hit. (Your suggestion.) This costs $825,000 in actual cash.

2. Run a 22-man roster, and acquire a player who is medically unable to play, but whose salary is covered by insurance. This costs $0 in actual cash, and you can get draft picks or other useful assets as part of the trade. This is what Buffalo did with Bishop – though, I admit, the assets they got were minimal. Still, minimal assets are better than none, and spending $0 is better than spending $825,000.

I will add another alternative:

3. Acquire a full-blown cap dump with salary payable, and collect multiple draft picks and/or prospects as your reward for taking it on. This is what Arizona has done repeatedly in recent years.

But that's assuming Lucic wouldn't just make the on-ice team which he probably would.

You're the one who said he would be in the pressbox, not me.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I am pretty certain that your ‘never ever ever’ is wrong, but I do not at the moment have leisure to go over the last 17 years of cap history of every team in the league.

The Flames did to get below the cap due to injuries, but never has a team intentionally iced under 23 players for internal budget reasons in the cap era

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If they're trying to avoid spending to the salary floor, then they are up against an internal budget, and carrying fewer than 23 players is an easy and obvious way to stay within that budget.

It becomes easier when you acquire a player making minimum (or near enough) who has an additional 4M+ cap hit over his salary to help you spend even less below the floor.

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You're the one who said he would be in the pressbox, not me.

At worst under the assumption that you would agree at bare minimum he would be able to eat popcorn.

Lucic would be a prime piece for the Yotes if he actually would waive for them because he doesn't add to the cost (beyond that $75,000), reduces their need to stay above the floor and actually contributes to team success in a proper 4th line role. Alas he probably won't waive so it's moot but if he did, they aren't giving up much to move him after his bonus is paid.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Lucic would be a prime piece for the Yotes if he actually would waive for them because he doesn't add to the cost (beyond that $75,000), reduces their need to stay above the floor and actually contributes to team success in a proper 4th line role. Alas he probably won't waive so it's moot but if he did, they aren't giving up much to move him after his bonus is paid.

I actually agree with this conclusion, but your logic doesn't arrive there. Lucic's situation is unique, and you can't usefully address it by making analogies with other players who have been involved in cap dumps.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by MrMike

What if it pulled in a Lafrenierre type player? Just as an example, cheaper contract, monster return who would be cheap for us. That's what I was thinking or along with those talking about those New Jersey deals, maybe a player/prospect entry level who can step into second line winger minutes while say Tofolli or Mang takes over first line duties.

Nobody is giving away a Laf type for 1 year of Tkachuk.


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