2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[FlamesAddiction]

Would Philly, or any other team, even want an 8th year for Gaudreau? To me, the 8th year is more of a benefit to the player and not the team, when we are talking about a player who will be in his late 30s by the time that 8th year comes around. I just don't see why they would want to trade for that "privilege".

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Would Philly, or any other team, even want an 8th year for Gaudreau? To me, the 8th year is more of a benefit to the player and not the team, when we are talking about a player who will be in his late 30s by the time that 8th year comes around. I just don't see why they would want to trade for that "privilege".

Typically the 8th year lowers the cap. Rather pay a player $10M per or $11.4M per?

[shutout]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Would Philly, or any other team, even want an 8th year for Gaudreau? To me, the 8th year is more of a benefit to the player and not the team, when we are talking about a player who will be in his late 30s by the time that 8th year comes around. I just don't see why they would want to trade for that "privilege".

If Gaudreau says to Flyers that this is his last pay date and that he can get $77M from them or $88M from the Flames that might be enough incentive for the Flyers to acquire his rights and 8th year so that they can sign Gaudreau.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Any team looking to dump a $7M AAV for a 33 year old is likely going to have to pay an asset if they are not willing to take cap back. Maybe Seattle but I think they have better options out there. If they do it I see it being after the dust has settled for free agency.

Originally Posted by The Cobra

In an era where cap is King, it's not that easy dumping cap unless its premium. Just not much demand for it. And tons of supply.

Most of the notable cap dumps have involved term.

Only exceptions I can think of is that FLA had to attach a 2nd to the last year of Stralman ($$=AAV).

NYR needed to attach a 2nd to the last year of Marc Staal, but he had a full NMC which may have limited their options.

I suppose you could say the failed Dadonov deal, but that was at TDL with particular urgency (and now they've moved him at no real cost).


Useful overpaid older players still fetch positive returns (MAF, Leddy, Keith LOL, Stastny, Schmidt, etc)

MAF is a good example of this gamble paying off - CHI acquired him for basically nothing and got a 2nd for him at TDL.


TLDR: $5M #5/6 D required sweeteners. Most other overpaid players with 1 yr term haven't.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Would Philly, or any other team, even want an 8th year for Gaudreau? To me, the 8th year is more of a benefit to the player and not the team, when we are talking about a player who will be in his late 30s by the time that 8th year comes around. I just don't see why they would want to trade for that "privilege".

Let's say they are willing to pay 80M for 7 years if he reached UFA and Gaudreau is fine with that understanding he's likely retiring after that contract.

With the ability to simply spread that out over 8 years, even (or especially) as a bonus-laden 8th year with a 10M signing bonus and 1M salary (like Ladd and Lucic this year), they could do effectively pay him 80M for 7 years of work but reduce his cap hit by 1.5M.

However, if Gaudreau was strictly chasing money from an Eastern Team, an offer from Philly for 88M over 8 years might be more tempting to Gaudreau than 80M over 7 years from NJ.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

So how does including Seattle in the trade help them?

Because Calgary doesn’t want JVR and Seattle can help get the deal done.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Most of the notable cap dumps have involved term.

Only exceptions I can think of is that FLA had to attach a 2nd to the last year of Stralman ($$=AAV).

NYR needed to attach a 2nd to the last year of Marc Staal, but he had a full NMC which may have limited their options.

I suppose you could say the failed Dadonov deal, but that was at TDL with particular urgency (and now they've moved him at no real cost).


Useful overpaid older players still fetch positive returns (MAF, Leddy, Keith LOL, Stastny, Schmidt, etc)

MAF is a good example of this gamble paying off - CHI acquired him for basically nothing and got a 2nd for him at TDL.


TLDR: $5M #5/6 D required sweeteners. Most other overpaid players with 1 yr term haven't.

Forget Patrick Marleau costing a 1st with 1 year left? I guess the buyout implication was a factor there

Based on what you are saying it should be a breeze to ship out Lucic and/or Monahan on Seattle?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Teams like Arizona have been trying to lose for years in preparation for this...they are playing in a 5000 seat stadium next year for FFS. Its laughable to suggest they care about the product on the ice enough to risk their 2023 first.

They were sold in 2019. They immediately went out and tried to win with Taylor Hall and trading a 1st for him.

With that experiment a failure and moving OEL it's not exactly clear the team's direction but signing a three year deal with the arena isn't really indicative of anything in my opinion. If the argument is that they aren't planning on winning for three years, why aren't they shopping Keller, Schmatlz and friends? Why purchase a team only to immediately guarantee to your fanbase that you have no plan on winning? That only works if you think they are looking at moving to Houston or something.

But then if they are looking to move to Houston (or wherever), coming with a competitive team instead of a young guns era team is probably more favourable.

I think they are fine with rebuilding but if the opportunity came around to make them a playoff team this coming season, they'd take it even at the expense of some future picks.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Forget Patrick Marleau costing a 1st with 1 year left? I guess the buyout implication was a factor there

Based on what you are saying it should be a breeze to ship out Lucic and/or Monahan on Seattle?

Marleau is a special case. Only willing to waive in order to be bought out. His buyout costing almost 4M in actual money (with a 3M signing bonus that had to be paid within days of trading for him) and because he was +35, also a 6M cap hit. Super poison pill.

Teams with cap but internal budgets, it didn't make sense because it was 4M in actual money.

Teams with unlimited budgets, it didn't make sense because they would use the 6M cap on useful players.

Carolina had Toronto by the balls.

Lucic, if he waived, would be making less than a league minimum player. Teams like Coyotes would love him over some other league minimum player because they don't care about the cap right now.

[Vinny01]

So does Lucic full cap dump have positive value?

[OptimalTates]

And Bishop+7th to Buffalo showed that it's easy to move cap if it doesn't come with term and money behind it.

Even if someone acquired Lucic for the sole purpose of being the 14th forward, he's still taking the spot of a 14th forward making just as much as him (0.825M salary), it's not much different than an LTIR player like Bishop.

The issue is Lucic's NTC. The teams that do want him, won't be the ones on his list.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

So does Lucic full cap dump have positive value?

Without a NTC, I think after his bonus is paid, yes there would have been a team willing to throw, at a minimum, a 7th round pick and not great AHL contract for Lucic. 0.825M for a player who can hold his own against the heaviest guys in the league, has Cup experience, able to play up the lineup and stand in front of the net on the second PP unit, very clear value for a lot of teams there with internal budgets (especially those looking to get to the floor).

But his NTC would have those teams on it, and the Flames ownership is notorious for not wanting to pay players to play for other teams, so they would probably pressure to have him traded before his bonus is paid off.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

The issue is Lucic's NTC. The teams that do want him, won't be the ones on his list.

Hard to say, but I could see Lucic waiving his NTC if asked. He allowed himself to be exposed in the expansion draft after all.

[MrMike]

If Gaudreau signs with us and Tkachuk makes it clear he won’t sign an extension, would trading him with 50% retained bring back a monster return?

Imagine being able to drop a 100 pt player for a sub 5 mill cap hit for a year if you are really trying to make a run.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by MrMike

If Gaudreau signs with us and Tkachuk makes it clear he won’t sign an extension, would trading him with 50% retained bring back a monster return?

Imagine being able to drop a 100 pt player for a sub 5 mill cap hit for a year if you are really trying to make a run.

I think that Calgary with Gaudreau, and without Tkachuk, still is in a contender window. Just a simple example (that I don't think happens), but what if Claude Giroux signs a three year contract to take Tkachuk's place?

Also, Tkachuk gets traded as is, and the return will still be very high. I wouldn't want to limit the receiving team in terms of a one-year contract, and they would have the spectre of Tkachuk walking after that year.

[saillias]

Still don't see Philadelphia as a serious contender for Gaudreau's services. They can leak all they want how they are clearing salary to make a pitch. They're a 60 point team and need a 40 point improvement to be in the playoff conversation. And they're not even trending up, they're looking really rough going forward. Gaudreau is not providing 20 wins above replacement to close that gap - even McDavid wouldn't.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Hard to say, but I could see Lucic waiving his NTC if asked. He allowed himself to be exposed in the expansion draft after all.

Wasn't the exposure in the expansion draft part of the deal to get him out of Edmonton? Dude would have exposed himself to a lot worse lol.

Going to Arizona on his last year on his contract with no reason to assume he would be there beyond a one-and-done (and likely closer to being traded again at the deadline) might not be super appealing.

However, if he would waive to Arizona and the Flames owners are okay paying his 3M bonus and then trading him, I think the Coyotes would actually be willing to pay a decent amount.

They are currently over 10M from the floor because players like Kessel and Stralman are UFAs. With only Crouse, Hayton and Fischer as notable RFAs, they could be looking at a floor team if they don't get a notable UFA or two. But then that also means they can't trade players like Gost or make a big future move for Chyrchun without taking back salary to get back over the floor which actually reduces their flexibility. Lucic being paid league minimum but putting them out of dangerzone of the floor would give them flexibility and/or a payroll that could be significantly below the actual salary floor.

[rhino]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

So does Lucic full cap dump have positive value?

As in a buyout? No, you only get 333K cap relief and you need to replace him with at least league minimum

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Hard to say, but I could see Lucic waiving his NTC if asked. He allowed himself to be exposed in the expansion draft after all.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if before the trade from Edmonton happened he needed to agree that he wouldn't block a trade and would be willing to be exposed in the expansion draft.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by rhino

As in a buyout? No, you only get 333K cap relief and you need to replace him with at least league minimum

No I think the poster meant “attractive to a team trading for him”

Sad thing is I will definitely miss what he brings. Really wish last year was the end of that contract and we could have signed him to a league min-mill deal this year to keep him around.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Hard to say, but I could see Lucic waiving his NTC if asked. He allowed himself to be exposed in the expansion draft after all.

Apples and oranges.

He had zero chance to be picked in the expansion draft as he had term left.