Francis: Treliving filled with disappointment, anger after team's collapse

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

The Hawks might not be a good example assuming they lose their minds and dump JQ as has been rumoured. I still have trouble believing they would be that short sighted, but the rumours have been out there for a while.

The Hawks have already announced nobody is getting fired which is the right move as there's nowhere to go but down from JQ.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Hawks have already announced nobody is getting fired which is the right move as there's nowhere to go but down from JQ.

Hadn't heard that. It's so obviously the right decision that it makes complete sense though.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by zamler

According to that chart the Flames are on the same tier as the Penguins. So hire Mike Sullivan and two straight Cups later.

That chart is just laughable if it says we’re on the same tier as the Penguins. The Penguins basically have 3 - 90 point players whereas we have 0. I sure wouldn’t mind having one 3 different lines that stars a Crosby, Malkin or a Kessel.

That was a big reason why they won the Cup in 2016, because they had the 3 star players on 3 different lines. Kessel as your 3rd line RW easily easily beats our 3rd line RWer Garnet Hathaway who has what, 3 goals this season?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s JG.

Johnny is always emotionally invested in the game and has always been known as a guy that hates to lose. I think it is pretty obvious based off of posts I have made over the past several months I think it is Hamilton.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Actually it is. The Flames slumped last season going into the playoffs, his Stars teams also slumped towards the end of seasons, and well the end of this season is pretty self explanatory. The records don't lie.

The Flames had just won 10 straight and comfortably put themselves in a playoff position. I hardly call that slumping. Also, you completely missed the point of my post as I was replying to the poster’s notion that the system becomes worse over time and the team is easy to figure out when it fact, it was the opposite as this team became better and better as that season progressed.

Obviously we know how this season has crumbled, but when you’re a top heavy team and you take your top players out of the line up and have Nick Shore as your #1 center, uhh yeah you’re going to have a tough time winning games.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

This isn’t true at all. In fact, after the miserable 5-10-1 start last season where the team was adapting to the new system, the team went 40-23-3. They were a top 10 team after October and were a top 5 defensive team in terms of goals allowed.

If this team was so easy to play against as other teams adapt, then how would you explain the 50+ game point streak when the Flames had a lead after 2. If anything, this team showed that they understand the system and actually played it well.

Everyone just needs to face the facts here. This is an incredibly top heavy team that has relied on their 1 or 2 players to carry this organization for 25+ years now. Back in the Fleury days, then the Iggy and Kipper era and now this season with Gaudreau and Smith.

Anyone who doesn’t believe me, just look at the best streches this team had this season and look at what it coincided with. 7 game win streak in January, 13 points in 7 games from Gaudreau. How about that 7-2 stretch in November, 18 points in 9 games from Gaudreau...that 3 game winning streak in October, 7 points in 3 games from Gaudreau and finally that 3 game winning streak in February, 6 points in 3 games from Gaudreau. We win when Smith gives us great goaltending or when Gaudreau carries this team on his back, just like Iggy and Kipper did a decade ago.

The ultimate demise lf this team this year was that the bottom 6 looked like two 4th lines for most of this season and the Backlund line regressed offensively and big time defensively. Thus sadly, the career years of a few players and some key additions just weren’t enough to make up for the deficits and regression.

It is not at all uncommon, for pretty much every team ever, that, when on winning streaks, it's because their best players are on a roll. That's how it works.

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines all struggled this year (other than Tkachuk). You can argue that is a lack of talent, but many of those players underperformed expectations. So it is pretty easy to argue systems/coaching as well.

The defense, as a group, was considered to be top 5 by almost everyone, and top 3 by many, heading into the season. They are sitting bottom third for production. Maybe they collectively lost their skill. Or maybe the systems sucked.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

The Flames had just won 10 straight and comfortably put themselves in a playoff position. I hardly call that slumping. Also, you completely missed the point of my post as I was replying to the poster’s notion that the system becomes worse over time and the team is easy to figure out when it fact, it was the opposite as this team became better and better as that season progressed.

Obviously we know how this season has crumbled, but when you’re a top heavy team and you take your top players out of the line up and have Nick Shore as your #1 center, uhh yeah you’re going to have a tough time winning games.

He didn't miss the point of your post, he is disputing it.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Itse you’re stating things as fact (in bold) that you don’t have any evidence for. You say yourself that you don’t know if they’re true.

How about a bet?

If shot-based metrics (corsi, fenwick, shots, what ever) predict this years Stanley Cup playoff bracket better than goal-based metrics, you win.

If goal-based metrics do better, I win.

[SportsJunky]

Kent Wilson had an article for the Athletic yesterday citing 8 things Treliving needs to do this summer to right the ship. Some of his points were no brainers along the lines of finding depth on the RW and figuring out what to do with Sam Bennett. It's worth a read if you have a subscription. https://theathletic.com/301954/2018/...018-offseason/

Anyway, I liked the angle that he looked at the defence from. Namely, in terms of the blue line, Stone might be the better choice to ship out of town. Brodie has been a lightning rod this season but Wilson's points on Stone are good ones. He's overpaid for a bottom pairing guy and his performance has been underwhelming to be sure. Whether it's Stone, Brodie or Hamilton, the author believes a veteran Dman should be moved this summer. I don't see how Stone gets Calgary a top end forward though. Package him with somebody? Bennett? Ferland?

Besides the possibility of moving one of Brodie or Hamonic in a trade, the most obvious choice is Stone. The former Coyote was the Troy Brouwer of Calgary's blueline — a player who probably signed for too much for too long given his results and role. Stone was relegated to the third pairing this year where he mostly got beat up in terms of shots, chances, and goals. In fact, outside of Bartkowski, Stone had the worst collection of results amongst regular Flames defenders.
Stone has some useful qualities: a big shot from the point and capable of pinning bigger opponents down low, he is also one of the slowest players on the team and doesn't quite have the puck skills or hockey IQ to compensate. Chances are his footspeed will slow as he ages as well.
As such, the player's results are largely replaceable, either via free agency is needed, or, likely, internally with an option like Andersson who has looked NHL ready for a full season now.
One way or the other, the Flames should be dealing at least one of their vets this off-season. Not only do they need picks and forward depth, they also need to give the kids a chance.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I definitely think of the Flames were to look at upgrading centre Jankowski would be going the other way. He is a Sabres fan as well and fits their age timeline a little better.

To Flames: RoR
To Sabres: Jankowski, Gillies, Ferland

To Leafs: Hamilton
To Flames: Nylander+ 2018 1st

Sign David Perron to a 3 year $3.5M deal

Gaudreau-Monahan-Nylander
Tkachuk-O’Rielly-Perron
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Mangiapane-Dube/Vet-Lazar

Giordano-Brodie
UFA/Kulak-Hamonic
Kulak/Valimaki-Stone/Andersson

Smith
Rittich


The forward depth looks amazing but I believe they would want to address the second pairing D as Kulak is probably not ready but Valimaki might be?

Buffalo is a team desperate to start improving. They are very thin on the blue line which is why I think Brodie might make sense.

Further, and I'm totally speculating, I think Brodie and his wife would welcome a move to be closer to home (Southern Ontario).

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It is not at all uncommon, for pretty much every team ever, that, when on winning streaks, it's because their best players are on a roll. That's how it works.

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines all struggled this year (other than Tkachuk). You can argue that is a lack of talent, but many of those players underperformed expectations. So it is pretty easy to argue systems/coaching as well.

The defense, as a group, was considered to be top 5 by almost everyone, and top 3 by many, heading into the season. They are sitting bottom third for production. Maybe they collectively lost their skill. Or maybe the systems sucked.

Actually, if you’re only winning games because of your one star player. Then you’re obviously relying too much on 1 guy. Look it up youself, this team has only won 6 games when Johnny Gaudreau doesn’t produce a point. 6 games! We’re at game 81 now. Much like every 1st line player in this league, Gaudreau can’t produce every game and when he doesn’t, we need other guys to step up and we didn’t get that enough this season.

You can argue systems all you want. But the same players I’m talking about had good/solid years under GG in 2016-17 and for myself personally, that’s all I was expecting. But when you have year to year regressions from important players like Backlund, Frolik, Brouwer, Stajan and etc, then it’s going to be tough to replicate the same success as the previous season.

Top 3 D? Seriously? Enough with the top defense crap. Have we not seen this before? I’ve honestly heard it 3 times in the last decade and it’s always resulted in the same thing, missing the playoffs. The season Bouwmeester signed here, when Dougie was acquired and now with Hamonic. Has this organization learned anything yet? These higher ups need to stop making the same damn mistakes over and over and over again because it’s tiresome at this point.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Kent Wilson had an article for the Athletic yesterday citing 8 things Treliving needs to do this summer to right the ship. Some of his points were no brainers along the lines of finding depth on the RW and figuring out what to do with Sam Bennett. It's worth a read if you have a subscription. https://theathletic.com/301954/2018/...018-offseason/

Anyway, I liked the angle that he looked at the defence from. Namely, in terms of the blue line, Stone might be the better choice to ship out of town. Brodie has been a lightning rod this season but Wilson's points on Stone are good ones. He's overpaid for a bottom pairing guy and his performance has been underwhelming to be sure. Whether it's Stone, Brodie or Hamilton, the author believes a veteran Dman should be moved this summer. I don't see how Stone gets Calgary a top end forward though. Package him with somebody? Bennett? Ferland?

For sure IMO it's either Stone, Brodie or both that could be moved. Rasmus has earned a spot, Kulak looks like he can play an increased role and Valimaki is going to be knocking at the door. Who knows what Fox can do?

I think the RW issue and the D issue can possibly be handled together.

Depth wise, Foo, Shore and Dube plus an improved Lazar might go a long way in settling the bottom 6 down. If Jankowski can find a new gear, and if Bennett ever finds his way, a lot of problems get solved.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He didn't miss the point of your post, he is disputing it.

Yes and I disputed your point with facts. Once this team learned the system, they were excellent. Treliving believes in this system which is why he hand picked Gulutzan and the next guy he chooses will likely play the same system as it checks all his boxes.

People can keep ragging on coaches and systems until they’re blue in the face. But this organization has deployed 14 different coaches in 29 years and it’s lead to the exact same disappointing results over and over and over. 27 of 29 years of 1st round exits and middling finishes. We can keep going on this carousel of insanity, but I guarantee it’s not going to change anything.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Itse

How about a bet?

If shot-based metrics (corsi, fenwick, shots, what ever) predict this years Stanley Cup playoff bracket better than goal-based metrics, you win.

If goal-based metrics do better, I win.

lol why? What does this have to do with the discussion?

Here's a bet that's equally as relevant:

If the team with the most wins in this years' playoffs wins the SC I win.

If the team with the best goal differential wins, you win.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Do you think the Flames need an upgrade in goal? I am not convinced. As I see it the goaltending issues are inter-related as follows:

1. Mike Smith played too much. Eddie Lack's terrible play in October coupled with Smith's brilliance created a situation in which the coaches ended up relying far too heavily on him early. However, by the same token and because of how weirdly balanced the early part of the schedule was, it was also difficult to sit Smith on the bench without also having him out-of-action for several days in a row.

2. Smith's injury: This was likely a product of the number of games he had already played in the first two-thirds, and this was also exacerbated by how Rittich responded with a heavier workload, along with the rest of the team behind him. A tonne of what happened with goaltending was psychological, and this leads to perhaps the most critical third point.

3. The home record: On the road, Smith, Rittich and the Flames were excellent. But for whatever reason when Smith played at the Saddledome he did not look great. I felt that about the whole roster, and it really seemed like several of the players were constantly playing inside their own heads.

I think all of these can potentially be resolved without much change to on-ice personnel. It probably has a lot to do with coaching (from my perspective not as much a "systems issue" as it is a "perparation-and-response issue"), but may also have to do with some of the on-ice dynamics between players.

Well building from the goalie out really includes the defense as I would define it. Goaltending was average this year. As to whether that was psychological, well I don’t know how to validate that.

My point is he wanted to win with a strong defense corps this year. Does he still believe in that approach?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well building from the goalie out really includes the defense as I would define it. Goaltending was average this year. As to whether that was psychological, well I don’t know how to validate that.

My point is he wanted to win with a strong defense corps this year. Does he still believe in that approach?

The biggest problem is that that defence let in an unbelievable amount of shots that then turned into goals.

But how much can you read into that when the entire system is going to change next year?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Johnny is always emotionally invested in the game and has always been known as a guy that hates to lose. I think it is pretty obvious based off of posts I have made over the past several months I think it is Hamilton.

Johnny hates to lose, but I'm not sure his emotional investment always translates into positive events on ice. He can make a great move and score or set up a goal, but he also gets frustrated into his low percentage plays, some of which are of the dangerous "at the blueline" giveaway variety. Now Hamilton I think is perceived as not as invested but I think it's in large part due to his smooth skating and passing style. But when you see his reaction for his clutch goals, I think his emotion is present. Would I like him to be physical? Sure, I'd love him to be a Pronger. I don't think he's that kind of player, though. His ceiling is a a taller Neidermayer.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

lol why? What does this have to do with the discussion?

Here's a bet that's equally as relevant:

If the team with the most wins in this years' playoffs wins the SC I win.

If the team with the best goal differential wins, you win.

You claim goal differential is not predictive. He’s saying let’s predict playoff winners based on end of season Goal diff and corsi and see which is a better predictor of future events.

That would be a fun albeit non-scientific thread, and could include other methods people propose.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

What is this narrative that you're spinning that the Flames traded so many picks for the bottom of the roster? The only player in the bottom 6 or bottom pairing that they traded picks for is Lazar. And the 2017 2nd round pick they traded for him would not be impacting the NHL teams roster this season at all, and even in a best case scenario for that pick, it wouldn't be impacting the NHL roster for a few years yet.

Is it spin that Flames have traded a ton of draft picks in last few years? Lazar, Bollig, Lack, Shore, Hamonic, Stone are the examples I can think of from top of my head. Maybe my use of bottom roster is not the most accurate, but these have not proven to be difference makers. That doesn’t get into the draft picks given up for Elliott and then Smith. At least one of these guys has been a starter, but not top half of the league stuff.

[Inglewood Jack]

Goal differential is so close to just outright counting wins that it's about as useful as stating the sunniest days are going to be the ones with the fewest clouds in the sky. The whole point of of the advanced stats is to try and determine which teams are playing the right way to win, whether they're currently winning or not. Those stats clearly have huge flaws right now, but using differential instead is one step away from pure hindsight.