The New American Politics thread

[driveway]

Prediction: this race ends up almost identical to 2012.
Basically the same popular vote and electoral college totals, only states that might flip are North Carolina going Dem and New Hampshire going Repub.

60 million Americans are going to vote for Trump

But 65 million are going to vote Hillary.

[Hockey Fan #751]

I think Trump will win by a landslide. Hillary is already having problems with a socialist. She's going to get roasted. Trump has played the whole thing masterfully so far. I bet he changes a lot of his policies to be more palatable and the Americans will eat it up.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Speaking of Trump....or is it John Miller....or John Barron??

The voice is instantly familiar; the tone, confident, even cocky; the cadence, distinctly Trumpian. The man on the phone vigorously defending Donald Trump says he’s a media spokesman named John Miller, but then he says, “I’m sort of new here,” and “I’m somebody that he knows and I think somebody that he trusts and likes” and even “I’m going to do this a little, part-time, and then, yeah, go on with my life.”

A recording obtained by The Washington Post captures what New York reporters and editors who covered Trump’s early career experienced in the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s: calls from Trump’s Manhattan office that resulted in conversations with “John Miller” or “John Barron” — public-relations men who sound precisely like Trump himself — who indeed are Trump, masquerading as an unusually helpful and boastful advocate for himself, according to the journalists and several of Trump’s top aides.

In 1991, Sue Carswell, a reporter at People magazine, called Trump’s office seeking an interview with the developer. She had just been assigned to cover the soap opera surrounding the end of Trump’s 12-year marriage to Ivana, his budding relationship with the model Marla Maples and his rumored affairs with any number of celebrities who regularly appeared on the gossip pages of the New York newspapers.

Within five minutes, Carswell got a return call from Trump’s publicist, a man named John Miller, who immediately jumped into a startlingly frank and detailed explanation of why Trump dumped Maples for the Italian model Carla Bruni. “He really didn’t want to make a commitment,” Miller said. “He’s coming out of a marriage, and he’s starting to do tremendously well financially.”

Miller turned out to be a remarkably forthcoming source — a spokesman with rare insight into the private thoughts and feelings of his client. “Have you met him?” Miller asked the reporter. “He’s a good guy, and he’s not going to hurt anybody. . . . He treated his wife well and . . . he will treat Marla well.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...6e0_story.html

Full transcript and....yeah it's clearly Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...5938&tid=ss_tw

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Man, the deeper you drill into Trump the clearer it becomes that the man is legitimately mentally ill.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Man, the deeper you drill into Trump the clearer it becomes that the man is legitimately mentally ill.

He is the most vain and egotistical "man" I have ever seen.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

I think Trump will win by a landslide. Hillary is already having problems with a socialist. She's going to get roasted. Trump has played the whole thing masterfully so far. I bet he changes a lot of his policies to be more palatable and the Americans will eat it up.

You and I clearly have different definitions of "masterful." He has been surprisingly successful so far, but his campaign has been a series of bizarre stunts and many glaring missteps that had to be immediately back-pedaled.

If he wins (and to be clear, I don't have a crystal ball, but I doubt he wins in November. My prediction is a democratic landslide even bigger than 2008), he will only have won because he took the nomination of a political party that is fracturing at the seams, and ran against a historically unpopular candidate on the other side (while being even more historically unpopular himself).

He would really be the "accidental president" if that occurs, and that is the nickname I am now proposing for the Trump presidency if it comes to fruition.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

He is the most vain and egotistical "man" I have ever seen.

I think it's almost worse than that. I've had occasion in my professional life to deal with people that suffer from personality disorders, which are a bizarre form of mental illness. Many of them are incredibly narcissistic, believe that the world owes them everything, are thin-skinned and fly into a rage when they don't get their way.

This describes Trump (and his tiny, moist hands) to a T.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I think it's almost worse than that. I've had occasion in my professional life to deal with people that suffer from personality disorders, which are a bizarre form of mental illness. Many of them are incredibly narcissistic, believe that the world owes them everything, are thin-skinned and fly into a rage when they don't get their way.

This describes Trump (and his tiny, moist hands) to a T.

My brother is exactly the same type of narcissistic megalomaniac that Trump is, so I do know what you mean. Not exactly the easiest type of person to get along with.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

My prediction is a democratic landslide even bigger than 2008), he will only have won because he took the nomination of a political party that is fracturing at the seams, and ran against a historically unpopular candidate on the other side (while being even more historically unpopular himself).

To me this storyline of "historically unpopular candidates" sounds somewhat false, in the sense that I don't think it has as much to do with the candidates themselves as people like to say. (It also seems like a very unlikely situation to have happened just randomly.)

To me the "historical unpopularity" of the candidates is more telling of the level of cultural divide in the US at the moment. There is simply so much vitriol on both sides towards the other that

1) both sides are likely to act in ways which deliberately provokes the other (Trump especially does this all the time)
2) both candidates are more hated than they by any rational measure should be because so many people (most of whom don't really know much about the candidates) are simply very eager to hate the candidate on the other side no matter what.

I don't think that's even the whole of it though.

To me it seems that in our/their culture in general it's getting increasingly common to just hate everyone who doesn't agree with you politically.

The level of vitriol between the Sanders and Clinton camps seems to me especially ridiculous considering that they are candidates of the same party and apparently the Sanders and Clinton personally get along just fine, despite their differences.

I feel like we're living in very sad times. It seems to me like it's increasingly difficult to have meaningful political discussions with pretty much anyone anymore. (And I'm probably doing all the things that makes it difficult too.)

All that said:
Trump seems like a pretty special nutcase, and I really don't think he has as much of a chance as the media likes to portray.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So since Trump is his own press secretary...if he wins will he show up to press briefings with a fake mustache and a (different) wig? Will he pretend to be someone else when world leaders ring the phone? Jesus Christ am I really considering these possibilities as anything other than absurd, surrealist humour?

[Caged Great]

People just seem mad as hell and don't want to take it any more.

The problem is that all the huge problems facing the US are actually extremely minor.

Illegal immigration - actually a net negative as more people are going back to Mexico than coming to the US.

The debt - the deficit is almost neutral now due in large part to Obamacare. If some additional measures were taken, that could be finally addressed.

I could go on and on and on.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

My brother is exactly the same type of narcissistic megalomaniac that Trump is, so I do know what you mean. Not exactly the easiest type of person to get along with.

I think that I might work for your brother.

[nfotiu]

Even though the results on the surface look like Trump is getting a lot of votes, I'm not really sure that is the case.

Primaries are a funny beast and kind of a weird quirk of democracy. Turnout is a pretty small fraction of the general electorate, and typically were deciced by party loyalists.

Everything has changed with social media and has allowed grassroots movements to organize and get people out in relatively large numbers. Trump got in the same way a bunch of tea partiers have primaried themselves in. Typically all of those candidates don't have a chance on broader general elections, even in states where the normal republican would have had a decent shot of winning.

Trump has only got about 10-11 million actual votes so far. He probably needs in the neighborhood of 66 million to have a chance at winning the general election. I don't think there is much of a chance he can find anywhere near another 55 million people to vote for him who haven't already voted for him.

Sanders has stayed in this race too by way of the same phenomenon of having a grass roots/social media campaign that votes in primaries in disproportionate numbers.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

People just seem mad as hell and don't want to take it any more.

The problem is that all the huge problems facing the US are actually extremely minor.

Illegal immigration - actually a net negative as more people are going back to Mexico than coming to the US.

The debt - the deficit is almost neutral now due in large part to Obamacare. If some additional measures were taken, that could be finally addressed.

I could go on and on and on.

go on....

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The problem is that all the huge problems facing the US are actually extremely minor.

The biggest problem facing the US is the slow erosion of the middle class.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The biggest problem facing the US is the slow erosion of the middle class.

Studies have been showing for years that this country's middle class is shrinking.

Now, the nonpartisan Pew Research Center has added another dimension to the story: Its examination of government data shows the problem is not confined to the Rust Belt or Appalachia.

In fact, the middle is shrinking from coast to coast.

Middle-class families are "losing ground in the vast majority of metropolitan areas in the country," with 203 out of 229 U.S. metropolitan areas seeing a decline in middle-income households from 2000 to 2014, the Pew study said. About 3 out of 4 Americans live in those 229 metro areas.

Here's an important point: The change is not just a consequence of people getting poorer.

Rather, the study found that while some Americans are falling from the middle to the lower class, others are rising from the middle into the upper-income households.

So while 160 metropolitan areas saw an increase in the share of households with lower incomes, 172 metropolitan areas had an increase in the share considered upper income.

With so many people either moving up — or down — the middle has been getting whittled away. In general, economists say the trends reflect the loss of well-paying factory jobs and the growth of high-paying positions for college graduates.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...-slipping-away

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The biggest problem facing the US is the slow erosion of the middle class.

slow, and long. it has been going one for awhile now, since Reagan anyways.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The biggest problem facing the US is the slow erosion of the middle class.

Something something 200k isn't even enough to stop worrying about your mortgage something something.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

He is the most vain and egotistical "man" I have ever seen.

If you understood Russian you might not say that.

[Vulcan]

Harvard psychologist explains Trump is a narcissistic psychopath.

Donald Trump is “remarkably narcissistic,” according developmental psychologist Howard Gardner, a professor at Harvard Graduate School of Education.
“Textbook narcissistic personality disorder,” clinical psychologist Ben Michaelis explained.
The Mayo Clinic explains “Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for admiration and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of ultraconfidence lies a fragile self-esteem that’s vulnerable to the slightest criticism.”
They add that “a narcissistic personality disorder causes problems in many areas of life.” The sufferer “may be generally unhappy and disappointed when you’re not given the special favors or admiration you believe you deserve.”

Clinical psychologist George Simon said that Trump is “so classic that I’m archiving video clips of him to use in workshops because there’s no better example of his characteristics.” He conducts lectures and seminars on manipulative behavior exhibited by narcissists, psychopaths and sociopaths – all related Anti Social Personality Disorders. “Otherwise, I would have had to hire actors and write vignettes. He’s like a dream come true.”

http://countercurrentnews.com/2016/0...ic-psychopath/