Building The 2018/19 Flames Roster

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by spuzzum

At the start of last season, Tre mentioned his greatest worry was scoring. That worry turned out correct and needs to be fixed this off season for the Flames to make it back to the promise land.

Was that Tre who said that? I had thought it was our former coach. I'm hoping to get more from the backend this coming season.
Of course some help up front would be better.

[Toonage]

Treliving said it in his hour long interview with McKenzie

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by FireFly

It wasn’t an insult actually. I’m not talking about any particular player, I’m talking about how advanced stats still don’t tell the whole story. You can look at all the Corsi and fenwick and whatever you want but the real keys are things not found on paper or in calculators.

Right but I've been talking about engagement, attitude and giving a rip for pages.

Those aren't advanced stats, they're history, eye tests and word a mouth on a player that just isn't trusted and hasn't been trusted for years to be part of a team with aspirations up the standings.

but his advanced stats suck too!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I'm of a similar mindset in that I believe if the Flames are looking to add a forward via trade the only assets that we can afford to move are on the backend.

- Gio/Hamilton (elite first pairing)
- Hamonic (physical top 4 defensive dman - unique to our group)
- Valamaki (top prospect with big upside and minimal question marks)
- Andersson (top end RHed offensive prospect that looks ready)
- Kylington (elite skills and has thrived in AHL at a young age)
- Fox (RHed with highend offensive skillset, fleeing as FA is unlikely but possible)
- Kulak (top 6, home grown and young enough that he may provide more)
- Brodie (top 4 guy but Valamaki looks like he could eventually replace him)
- Stone (top 4/5 RH guy with hard shot and grit but Andersson looks ready)

If I'm going to move any of these guys I would start at the bottom of the list and work my way up. There is a line of succession in place where Valamaki and Andersson should replace Brodie and Stone.

I'm a pretty big fan of the top 8 guys on the list and hope they are all with the organization until the Fox situation forces us to make a move. Truth be told I like all 10 but feel Brodie and Stone's skillsets are the easiest to replace from within, given the prospects we have stockpiled.

I truely believe, like Nashville and Anahiem have done in recent years, that we will churn out a handful of NHL dmen in a short period of time. We would be wise to take advantage of that and use the excess to get help in other areas.

I'd flip Kylington and Fox in your rankings.

[Mattman]

You also have to think how Treliving and Peters want to shape the back end not only for this season, but the next season after that.

Giordano - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
Kulak - Stone
Valimaki - Andersson
Kylington - Fox

Gio and Hamilton seem like a safe bet to stay put.
Peters and Treliving seem excited for Hamonic 2nd season so he's staying put.

Leaving Brodie, Kulak and Stone as the 3 most likely to be moved around. Most likely to be displaced (IMO) being..
1. Kulak
2. Stone
3. Brodie

And making a push for the big leagues based on talks by Tre and Peters...
1. Andersson
2. Valimaki
3. Kylington

Which means the start of the 2019-2020 season will probably look like this.

Gio - Hamilton
Valimaki - Hamonic
XXX - Andersson
Kylington

[Roof-Daddy]

I think a decent scenario for the flames D situation next year would be:

1. Move Stone for some picks, open a spot for Rasmus
2. Move Brodie for help up front and/or picks
3. Sign a guy like Thomas Hickey (Calgary kid IIRC) so you don't toss Kulak/Kylington/Valimaki into too deep of waters right off the bat

Hickey is a good skater and puck mover, decent in his own end and can play 18-19 minutes per night. You can probably sign him for less than Brodie makes now too IMO. 4 x 4 give or take?

Giordano - Hamilton
Hickey - Hamonic
Kulak - Andersson

Kylington and Valimaki can shuffle back and forth from Stockton battling with each other and Kulak for that last D spot.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I think a decent scenario for the flames D situation next year would be:

1. Move Stone for some picks, open a spot for Rasmus
2. Move Brodie for help up front and/or picks
3. Sign a guy like Thomas Hickey (Calgary kid IIRC) so you don't toss Kulak/Kylington/Valimaki into too deep of waters right off the bat

Hickey is a good skater and puck mover, decent in his own end and can play 18-19 minutes per night. You can probably sign him for less than Brodie makes now too IMO. 4 x 4 give or take?

Giordano - Hamilton
Hickey - Hamonic
Kulak - Andersson

Kylington and Valimaki can shuffle back and forth from Stockton battling with each other and Kulak for that last D spot.

Tre went out of his way to say that he would consider Brodie as part of the young core of the team (from the STH thread). Highly doubt he gets moved.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

Tre went out of his way to say that he would consider Brodie as part of the young core of the team (from the STH thread). Highly doubt he gets moved.

Just as an example, if a team is willing to trade BT a top 6 RW for Brodie, and BT finds out during the courting period that he can sign a Dman like Hickey to replace him, core or not he probably makes that trade to address a huge weakness on the roster, while not really opening up a hole in another spot. This assumes that during the courting period, none of the top 6 wingers available as UFA's seem very interested in signing with Calgary.

In his mind I'm sure:

Hickey + top 6 RW >> Brodie and no top 6 RW

Core player or not.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Just as an example, if a team is willing to trade BT a top 6 RW for Brodie, and BT finds out during the courting period that he can sign a Dman like Hickey to replace him, core or not he probably makes that trade to address a huge weakness on the roster, while not really opening up a hole in another spot. This assumes that during the courting period, none of the top 6 wingers available as UFA's seem very interested in signing with Calgary.

In his mind I'm sure:

Hickey + top 6 RW >> Brodie and no top 6 RW

Core player or not.

He would do that trade in the same way that if NYI offered Tavares + Barzal for Monahan Tre would say yes. Obviously if someone is willing to vastly overpay for our core players, Tre is going to say yes.

That's not the situation though. Brodie's trade value isn't the highest right now so he's not going to command much. However, he's proven he can play at a very high level and he's young enough to turn it around, so why trade him?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

Tre went out of his way to say that he would consider Brodie as part of the young core of the team (from the STH thread). Highly doubt he gets moved.

Management also said to expect big changes to the roster. It's hard to think of big changes without moving core pieces. The Flames' problems up front aren't going to be fixed by a free agent signing, even if they blow their brains out and land one of the big fish like Neal.

This isn't such a remarkable roster that its core players are all untouchable.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

He would do that trade in the same way that if NYI offered Tavares + Barzal for Monahan Tre would say yes. Obviously if someone is willing to vastly overpay for our core players, Tre is going to say yes.

That's not the situation though. Brodie's trade value isn't the highest right now so he's not going to command much. However, he's proven he can play at a very high level and he's young enough to turn it around, so why trade him?

1st of all, you have no idea what his trade value is around the league. The scenario I laid out is not unrealistic at all, nothing like your Tavares + Barzal for Monahan scenario. I'm not saying Brodie would return Mark Stone or Vlad Tarasenko. I'm talking about a player like a Charlie Coyle, or Josh Anderson for example.

2nd, why are you asking me why trade him? I just spelled out a scenario letter by letter as to why you would trade him. Someone offers you something you need, and at the same time you are able to replace him with a somewhat lesser player via free agency, where the net result is the team ends up being better.

[Flash Walken]

Trading Brodie in a one for one deal doesn't really help the Flames all that much.

They have 4-6 roster spots needing a substantial upgrade.

If you're going to move a defender in a one for one scenario in order to get a prime piece back it will be Giordano or Hamilton.

If you're dealing Brodie, the Flames will want a couple of depth pieces in return.

Quality depth, not warm bodies.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Trading Brodie in a one for one deal doesn't really help the Flames all that much.

They have 4-6 roster spots needing a substantial upgrade.

If you're going to move a defender in a one for one scenario in order to get a prime piece back it will be Giordano or Hamilton.

If you're dealing Brodie, the Flames will want a couple of depth pieces in return.

Quality depth, not warm bodies.

I would agree if Brodie can only get you a third line winger. I wouldn't agree if Brodie gets you a top six winger.

A top six winger fills a bigger hole creating trickle down that leaves the new gap near the bottom and much easier to fill with younger players.

The Flames current top six forwards are easy to count; Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Backlund. They need to add to that.

Their middle six players of Frolik, Bennett and Ferland are fine if they are third line players, but a problem in the top three as has been forced last year.

But add a guy to that group of four and the trickle down actually leaves you in much better shape.

[Bingo]

^^^

To flesh this out ...

Jankowski, Ferland, Bennett, Frolik, Shore, Lazar, Mangiapane, Dube, Foo should be enough to make a bottom six pretty formidable to be honest.

But Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Backlund is two players short.

Brodie for a guy in to add to the latter group, essentially means you only need one of Jankowski, Bennett, Ferland, Frolik or Foo to be the weakest link in the top six. That seems doable.

Redo that list without Brodie bringing in a top six though and you have two players to be in a top six essentially rendering the second line with two players potentially over their heads.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I would agree if Brodie can only get you a third line winger. I wouldn't agree if Brodie gets you a top six winger.

A top six winger fills a bigger hole creating trickle down that leaves the new gap near the bottom and much easier to fill with younger players.

The Flames current top six forwards are easy to count; Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Backlund. They need to add to that.

Their middle six players of Frolik, Bennett and Ferland are fine if they are third line players, but a problem in the top three as has been forced last year.

Micheal Ferland is certainly a top six forward. He is certainly NOT a problem in the top six.

But add a guy to that group of four and the trickle down actually leaves you in much better shape.

That much is obvious. What isn't obvious is the deterioration in overall team play removing a Brodie caliber player. He had a miserable season last year but he's hardly a filler #4 Dman as people keep treating him as. In fact I doubt Treliving considers him behind Hamonic on the depth chart the way CP seems to have shifted him. Brodie brings too much across the board for 25 minutes a game (and in a long playoff 2+ OT game, is there anyone else in our entire system you'd want hitting 45+ minutes in a game?).

I don't think we'll find a suitable replacement for Brodie. You might be able to plug one hole with him but you would just create another. We might have good "top 4 Dmen" prospects in guys like Kulak, Valimaki, or Kylington, but that does not ensure they can provide his complete package, and certainly not any time immediately. Have people already forgotten that in all the playoff runs we've had in the Gaudreau era, Brodie's been our most solid defenseman logging huge, effective minutes against top competition? Even Brodie-Stone gave the Ducks more difficulty than Josi-Ellis or Klefbom-Larsson did last year, and Stone is by far the worst Dman in that group.

He had a bad year last year, but he's still a key to whether or not this team wins a cup. We do need one (not two) more elite forward, specifically a RHS who can dominate on the power play and allow us to move a Frolik down the depth chart, but trading Brodie for that player would be a regrettable mistake. To be honest I think Hamilton is the more replaceable piece because much of his value added comes from goal scoring, and that's an area where forwards are expected to be more impactful.

[Bingo]

TJ Brodie has had two terrible seasons not one.

I still like the player, so I don't disagree with most of what you're saying, and I think he's a prime candidate to rebound as well.

However the hole up front is pretty big without the top end prospects coming along in the forward ranks to fill them. Because of that I think you move a defenseman for a forward as a way of balancing things out.

Who to move is certainly a good debate and I think cases could be made for any of the the big three to be honest.

Giordano is at a height and I'm sure a team like Toronto would love to bring him home if they blew Treliving away.

Hamilton as a unicorn would have a huge return.

Brodie and Hamonic are second pairing guys but still should be worth second line forwards if you try and move one.

I honestly go into the draft/summer with an open mind if I'm Treliving and see where it goes.

Ferland ... too inconsistent to be a top six forward in my mind. He's a good candidate to promote or be the weakest link in the top six but he's too up and down to put in the top four group with Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Backlund.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

^^^

To flesh this out ...

Jankowski, Ferland, Bennett, Frolik, Shore, Lazar, Mangiapane, Dube, Foo should be enough to make a bottom six pretty formidable to be honest.

But Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Backlund is two players short.

Brodie for a guy in to add to the latter group, essentially means you only need one of Jankowski, Bennett, Ferland, Frolik or Foo to be the weakest link in the top six. That seems doable.

Redo that list without Brodie bringing in a top six though and you have two players to be in a top six essentially rendering the second line with two players potentially over their heads.

I like this line of thinking. What gives me pause though, is you're essentially saying the Flames are a top six forward away. And I'm just not sure last year's results really bear that out.

Maybe I'm not convinced the players you mention make for a "formidable" bottom six. Maybe more like "adequate". And adding a top six forward doesn't make the top six formidable necessarily either.

So perhaps this team is a top six forward away from being a playoff contender, and need someone else to break out to get beyond that.

All of this assumes the defense and the incoming prospects play up to their billing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I like this line of thinking. What gives me pause though, is you're essentially saying the Flames are a top six forward away. And I'm just not sure last year's results really bear that out.

Maybe I'm not convinced the players you mention make for a "formidable" bottom six. Maybe more like "adequate". And adding a top six forward doesn't make the top six formidable necessarily either.

So perhaps this team is a top six forward away from being a playoff contender, and need someone else to break out to get beyond that.

All of this assumes the defense and the incoming prospects play up to their billing.

And that's fair.

I'm not looking to win a cup this summer, I don't see that as possible.

Right now the team has a balance issue and it needs to be fixed, then you look to internal growth and a prospect push to get better.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think the Flames offensive woes are a little exaggerated by how poorly the season ended. I agree, they absolutely need more scoring next year, but I suspect that the core group of forwards is not nearly as offensively inept as they are made out to be by some.

Something to consider:

In the second week of December the Flames were in the middle-of-the-pack in terms of team scoring. At the time, Johnny Gaudreau was scoring at a 1.22 pts/gp rate, and Sean Monahan was averaging 0.94 pts/gp. It is now reported that Monahan began receiving injections in his wrist just after Christmas. From in the third week of December to the end of the season Gaudreau's production dropped a full quarter-point to 0.94 pts/gp, Monahan dropped to 0.81 pts/gp, and the Flames plummeted to 28th in the League in scoring through the final 50 games. From mid-February until the end of the season they were dead last. Through the final three weeks of the season after Monahan was shut down, Gaudreau scored one goal and one assist. It is worth considering how much Monahan's health affected the entire team.

Once again, yes, I agree that the Flames need to add some pieces to improve their scoring depth, and they need more offence overall. But by the same token, I don't believe that a player like Vanek is the answer. There is still good reason to expect much of the improvement to come from within.

I don't get your argument at all, or rather that you seem to frame that as "they weren't that bad".

Aren't you essentially pointing out that the Flames were completely reliant on two high-skill players to carry them offensively, and that even when those two were in competition for the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies, at that highest point the team was still just mediocre?

I'm quite serious, that makes us sound worse than I thought we were, and I never thought we were that great. And it definitely makes it sound like we're desperate for more scoring.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I would agree if Brodie can only get you a third line winger. I wouldn't agree if Brodie gets you a top six winger.

A top six winger fills a bigger hole creating trickle down that leaves the new gap near the bottom and much easier to fill with younger players.

The Flames current top six forwards are easy to count; Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Backlund. They need to add to that.

Their middle six players of Frolik, Bennett and Ferland are fine if they are third line players, but a problem in the top three as has been forced last year.

But add a guy to that group of four and the trickle down actually leaves you in much better shape.

And that's just looking at the paper roster. Injuries happen, the Flames have been overall fortunate over the last few years (except two key injuries to arguably the team's most important pieces at their respective times; Mike Smith, and Gio a few years ago). It was difficult to watch Monahan play the second half of the season, knowing he couldn't shoot but was still the best option on the PP.

If the injury bug swings the other way this season, we need to add more than one capable player into the mix.

Edit: I responded before reading your and Strange Brew's later posts where you both emphasized that we are likely two players short. I would agree with that.