2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

There is a chance the offense won't be as potent next year.

Sure "there's a chance"... there is also a chance it'll be even better. Also "there's a chance" that the Pitching will be better (Dickey regains the form that got him the Cy Young pre-Toronto, Happ is the guy we saw in Pittsburgh, Stroman becomes an Ace. Baseball is a fickle game and it's silly to assume everythng that could happen will. Doubly silly to assume that only bad things will happen while good things won't.

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Bottom line is this is an extremely unbalanced team that was picked apart by a very balanced team in the playoffs

About that "balanced" team...

Royals Starting Pitching:

Ventura
Volquez
Duffy
Guthrie
Young
Cueto

... those are their six most used starters. Frankly that group is at least as underwhelming as the Jays group. The Royals aren't any more "balanced" then the Jays. They were legitimately good enough to get into the playoffs and then got hot at the right time. Have those two teams play a thousand 7 game series and I'd put money on the Jays winning 60% of the time... last playoffs just happened to part of the other 40%.

There's a lot of unwarrented negativity running around. Negativity that the numbers just don't say is reasonable.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Sure "there's a chance"... there is also a chance it'll be even better. Also "there's a chance" that the Pitching will be better (Dickey regains the form that got him the Cy Young pre-Toronto, Happ is the guy we saw in Pittsburgh, Stroman becomes an Ace. Baseball is a fickle game and it's silly to assume everythng that could happen will. Doubly silly to assume that only bad things will happen while good things won't.



About that "balanced" team...

Royals Starting Pitching:

Ventura
Volquez
Duffy
Guthrie
Young
Cueto

... those are their six most used starters. Frankly that group is at least as underwhelming as the Jays group. The Royals aren't any more "balanced" then the Jays. They were legitimately good enough to get into the playoffs and then got hot at the right time. Have those two teams play a thousand 7 game series and I'd put money on the Jays winning 60% of the time... last playoffs just happened to part of the other 40%.

There's a lot of unwarrented negativity running around. Negativity that the numbers just don't say is reasonable.

I dont think Cueto is going back to KC.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by VERVE

I dont think Cueto is going back to KC.

I'd hazard to guess that he's talking about the rotation they used last year, not the rotation that he expects them to use for the coming season.

He has a point, experts thought the Royals pitching would suffer without Big Game James....turns out him not being around to not win games actually helped them in the playoffs.

[GirlySports]

Zimmerman goes to the Tigers 5 years $110 mill. that sounds about right? not overinflated?

[ClubFlames]

Apparently Cueto is looking for a 140-160 million contract, similar to what Hamels signed. Cueto even rejected an offer from Diamondbacks which was reported 6 year 120 million.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Zimmerman goes to the Tigers 5 years $110 mill. that sounds about right? not overinflated?

That seems pretty reasonable in my books. I would have hoped the Jays were on him on that Price (Assuming he would have considered signing in Toronto).

[jayswin]

I think in terms of aces actually considering Toronto the list begins and ends with David Price. I think that's what bothered me more so than not signing an ace. It was the fact that having an ace play half a season and then reportedly love the team and city and actually have us on a short list of signing possibilities is like the stars aligning for the franchise. It's a little tough to see such an opportunity seemingly passed over for budget reasons.

I realize any one of those details could turn out to not be true, however the reporting has seemed fairly strong and consistent.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That seems pretty reasonable in my books.

It is reasonable considering how massive the MLB economy is these days. It's not a great deal but so long as he doesn't blow out his shoulder/elbow it'll be worth it.

[d_phaneuf]

People saying this was a .500 team at the half way mark before the trades are forgetting it was a .500 team with the best run differential in the league

essentially they were an extremely unlucky .500 team

if you look here on July 1st

http://www.baseball-reference.com/ga...it=Submit+Date

based on their Run differential they should have been winning about 60% of their games

and right now they are a much better team than the 1st half of last year solely by

Stroman>Buerhle
Happ>Hutchison
Tulo>Reyes

[Parallex]

Topical... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/with-...lent-rotation/

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

People saying this was a .500 team at the half way mark before the trades are forgetting it was a .500 team with the best run differential in the league

essentially they were an extremely unlucky .500 team

if you look here on July 1st

http://www.baseball-reference.com/ga...it=Submit+Date

based on their Run differential they should have been winning about 60% of their games

and right now they are a much better team than the 1st half of last year solely by

Stroman>Buerhle
Happ>Hutchison
Tulo>Reyes

They Jays were a .500 team well into mid-July because their pitching from their starting rotation was not great, and their bullpen was a complete mess. I forget off the top of my head how many games their bullpen blew, but it was up there. Until the Jays acquired Price, augmented their bullpen, and had Dickey have a career second-half, they were something like 2-23 (or something ridiculous like that) in 1 run games. Their record had nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with pitching. The Jays had the best offence in baseball, but to win a game they had to score 6 runs. Any time that didn't happen, a loss resulted and no matter how good your offence is, you can't score 6 runs all the time.

I think to suggest the fact that they will have better pitching to go along with the offence next year as it stands now is pretty far fetched in my opinion. As it currently stands, the Jays have no replacement for Price, no guarantee Dickey can replicate his July-Sept. performance, and have a terrible bullpen outside of Cecil. People like to highlight the fact that Buerhle had a terrible August and September, but the guy was 11-4 through July. Laying all their eggs in Stroman is also a very bad idea for a team that is obviously in win now mode. While Stroman has been great to start his career, he has just as much chance of regressing next year as he does improving/staying status quo. As Greg Zaun had mentioned on numerous occasions last year, because of Stroman's stature, he has next to no downward movement on his pitches. His pitches basically come at the batter straight. As a result, once guys have had a few more starts and at-bats, if they pick up on Stroman's delivery, there's the potential that his trajectory as a starting pitcher could change rather abruptly. Zaun is even on record saying he figures that when all things settle, Stroman will be a bullpen guy. Now Zaun isn't the be all and end all of baseball prophets, but there is some logic to what the former catches says. I personally think Stroman will have a good productive career as a starter, but I don't think he'll ever be a true ace. Likely a #2 or #3 starter.

I think it's also a pretty safe assumption that both Boston and New York will likely be improved baseball teams by the time April rolls around (Especially Boston). The Jays were 42-34 against the AL East. This was the direct result of having a 13-6 record against the Yankees which I don't think will be repeated with the rotation as it stands now.


In my opinion, the Jays needs to bolster their starting rotation and bullpen to even have a chance repeating at AL East Champs. What they currently have isn't going to cut it, and if nothing is done, they will likely end up as a .500 team on the outside looking in.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

They Jays were a .500 team well into mid-July because their pitching from their starting rotation was not great, and their bullpen was a complete mess. I forget off the top of my head how many games their bullpen blew, but it was up there. Until the Jays acquired Price, augmented their bullpen, and had Dickey have a career second-half, they were something like 2-23 (or something ridiculous like that) in 1 run games. Their record had nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with pitching. The Jays had the best offence in baseball, but to win a game they had to score 6 runs. Any time that didn't happen, a loss resulted and no matter how good your offence is, you can't score 6 runs all the time.

Uh, that was the unlucky part. The ridiculous record in one run games. It was completely unsustainable for any team. The bullpen was a big reason for that, but their numbers were actually pretty good in the first half last year. It's just that the only times they let up runs were in close games. You can say they weren't "clutch" enough, but that's more a factor of a half year sample weirdness.

I think to suggest the fact that they will have better pitching to go along with the offence next year as it stands now is pretty far fetched in my opinion. As it currently stands, the Jays have no replacement for Price, no guarantee Dickey can replicate his July-Sept. performance, and have a terrible bullpen outside of Cecil. People like to highlight the fact that Buerhle had a terrible August and September, but the guy was 11-4 through July.

Price made 11 starts for the Jays and was worth 2.4 WAR. It's pretty safe to say that Stroman can replace that with 30+ starts.

There's no guarantee Dickey will repeat his second half performance (although it is becoming a trend going back to his NYM days), but that's irrelevant. His entire 2014 performance is relevant - a 3.91 ERA (which was worse than 2013). I'd say there's a very good chance that he repeats that.

Our bullpen sucks aside from Cecil? Congrats on ignoring the fact that signing these depth starters gives us the flexibility to likely have Sanchez and Osuna back there. And it gives us the financial flexibility to add more pieces to the bullpen, which Lacava has already said they are looking to do. Signing Price to 30mil per season doesn't give you that option.

Buerhle pitched well for the year and needs to be replaced. The point people were making is that with the current lineup the Jays put together after the trade deadline, the Jays were able to go on a run in spite of Buerhle blowing up. His overall season performance needs to be replaced, but it's pretty likely than Chavez or Happ can pitch somewhere near that level for the year.

Laying all their eggs in Stroman is also a very bad idea for a team that is obviously in win now mode. While Stroman has been great to start his career, he has just as much chance of regressing next year as he does improving/staying status quo. As Greg Zaun had mentioned on numerous occasions last year, because of Stroman's stature, he has next to no downward movement on his pitches. His pitches basically come at the batter straight. As a result, once guys have had a few more starts and at-bats, if they pick up on Stroman's delivery, there's the potential that his trajectory as a starting pitcher could change rather abruptly. Zaun is even on record saying he figures that when all things settle, Stroman will be a bullpen guy. Now Zaun isn't the be all and end all of baseball prophets, but there is some logic to what the former catches says. I personally think Stroman will have a good productive career as a starter, but I don't think he'll ever be a true ace. Likely a #2 or #3 starter.

Greg Zaun also thinks RBIs still matter and hazing is okay in locker rooms. The guy is a dinosaur. Scouting has evolved greatly since Zaun was learning about the game and there isn't these hard and fast rules about how small guys can't start anymore. It was similar to how NHL defensemen had to be some big oaf who could barely skate or guys like Gaudreau/St. Louis were too small to compete years ago. There are players that buck the trend and they haven't been given the opportunity to show it until recently - small pitchers would just immediately be forced to the bullpen instead.

I think it's also a pretty safe assumption that both Boston and New York will likely be improved baseball teams by the time April rolls around (Especially Boston). The Jays were 42-34 against the AL East. This was the direct result of having a 13-6 record against the Yankees which I don't think will be repeated with the rotation as it stands now.

Okay, they'll be better. But so are the Jays. And the Jays were significantly better than both teams last year so they have a lot of ground to cover.

In my opinion, the Jays needs to bolster their starting rotation and bullpen to even have a chance repeating at AL East Champs. What they currently have isn't going to cut it, and if nothing is done, they will likely end up as a .500 team on the outside looking in.

Again, this is idiotic. It has no basis in fact. The Jays were a .500 team at the trade deadline last year without Stroman or Price. Without Tulo. And with Cecil pitching to a 5.00+ ERA. And even then, they were only .500 because they had a historically bad record in one-run games.

I think people really need to grasp the concept of WAR. David Price (or any other elite pitcher) is a 5 win pitcher. So you are essentially saying that even with Price, the Jays are an 85-win team and is probably 8-10 games out of the division lead. It's absolutely ridiculous.

[Sylvanfan]

Tulowitzki at short stop defensively has to be worth 2 more wins that what Reyes was.

Of the final 4 teams in the playoffs, the only one who had a big money pitcher who played the whole year on the team was the Cubs with Jon Lester. The Mets staff is home grown players for the most part, the Royals traded for Johnny Cueto like the Jays did with Price and the rest of their staff is hardly high priced. The Giants with all their WS wins essentially did it on the back of their home grown guys who actually faded off once they started to get more expensive.

I think the smart way to spend your money in Baseball is to stay away from big money pitching. Develop as much as you can in house, grab a pending one at the deadline to help you out. But in terms of your big dollar commitments, I think a 22 million dollar Josh Donaldson does more to win you games than a 22 million dollar Jordan Zimmerman would.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Tulowitzki at short stop defensively has to be worth 2 more wins that what Reyes was.

Of the final 4 teams in the playoffs, the only one who had a big money pitcher who played the whole year on the team was the Cubs with Jon Lester. The Mets staff is home grown players for the most part, the Royals traded for Johnny Cueto like the Jays did with Price and the rest of their staff is hardly high priced. The Giants with all their WS wins essentially did it on the back of their home grown guys who actually faded off once they started to get more expensive.

I think the smart way to spend your money in Baseball is to stay away from big money pitching. Develop as much as you can in house, grab a pending one at the deadline to help you out. But in terms of your big dollar commitments, I think a 22 million dollar Josh Donaldson does more to win you games than a 22 million dollar Jordan Zimmerman would.

I fully agree with your strategy on home grown pitching talent, but that went out the window for the Blue Jays when they traded every single last pitching prospect they had starting with the Dickey trade and culminating with the moves last year. Syndergaard, Nolin, Norris, Hoffman, Graveman, etc. All gone. They have only Sanchez and Osuna left, and they are absolutely killing their development in order to fill short-term holes in the bullpen. I'd argue that Sanchez is likely already ruined as a starter, so maybe keeping him in the bullpen as a power arm is the smart move now. The Jays are in full on win now mode, and they need pitching. They can't make any deals at the deadline this year to acquire another star rental, so they either have to spend this off season to have one another go at it or move on and rebuild using the chips they currently have to replenish the empty prospects cupboard. It would appear that they aren't going to spend, but given the expectations of the fan base, they can't start to rebuild either.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Tulowitzki at short stop defensively has to be worth 2 more wins that what Reyes was.

Of the final 4 teams in the playoffs, the only one who had a big money pitcher who played the whole year on the team was the Cubs with Jon Lester. The Mets staff is home grown players for the most part, the Royals traded for Johnny Cueto like the Jays did with Price and the rest of their staff is hardly high priced. The Giants with all their WS wins essentially did it on the back of their home grown guys who actually faded off once they started to get more expensive.

I think the smart way to spend your money in Baseball is to stay away from big money pitching. Develop as much as you can in house, grab a pending one at the deadline to help you out. But in terms of your big dollar commitments, I think a 22 million dollar Josh Donaldson does more to win you games than a 22 million dollar Jordan Zimmerman would.

Also, while I agree with your last paragraph on Donaldson, it's also what frustrates the hell out of me in being a Jays fan. Why do we have to pick between having Donaldson and a pitcher like Zimmerman in a market like Toronto with an entire country supporting and buying merchandise of the team? We aren't the Milwaukee Brewers or Tampa Bays Rays here. The Jays are run like a small market team, and it drives me nuts.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'm starting to come around with what the Jays seem to be doing here. Still time for changes, but if you compare the team now to the one they had to start 2015 it's a better team as long as they add a solid piece or two to the bull pen, which they will likely do.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

We aren't the Milwaukee Brewers or Tampa Bays Rays here.

Indeed they are not... however one has to note that the Tampa Bay Rays had the 28th ranked opening day payroll in MLB, while the Brewers had the 19th ranked payroll. The Jays? 10th in MLB.

Sure, the Jays don't spend like drunken sailors (ala NYY & LAD) but the financial committment is reasonable. Yeah, we'd all like a little bit more but everyone has a limit and I'm okey with the Jays limit being in the upper third (albeit fringly) of the league.

[socalwingfan]

Red Sox have apparently signed price to a 7 year $217MM contract - guess he didn't learn from his good buddy Carl Crawford (edit: guess he did, looks like an opt out after 3 years)

[Sakic19]

Jays won't have to worry about how to fit Price in the budget
Bosox gave him 7yr at 31mil per

[Senator Clay Davis]

You knew he was signing in Boston when you started seeing those "It's not gonna be all about the money" articles popping up. Good for him though, he got paid top dollar; even better for Greinke who's a safer bet long term.