2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[Caged Great]

If this is the end product of the rotation, the Jays need to spend some money on relievers. At least 2 guys that are good like Lowe/O'Day. If the starters struggle, the pen is going to be used. If there are few quality options, the team will be in a tough spot.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Happ has 4 of his last 5 seasons over 144, and in that 144 season he was a reliever partially

Estrada has 150/182 the last 2 years, and 130/140 the 2 years before that

Ill take 150 innings out of the 3/4 pitchers, when Dickey is going to give close to 200+ and hopefully Stroman gets near it as well

Paint it however you want, but if this is the rotation for 2016 the Jays aren't winning the AL East again IMO. Maybe they get lucky and 80ish wins is enough to play in the WC game but I doubt it.

They have a one year window and they decide to cheap out on pitching, what a solid strategy

[flamingreen]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Paint it however you want, but if this is the rotation for 2016 the Jays aren't winning the AL East again IMO. Maybe they get lucky and 80ish wins is enough to play in the WC game but I doubt it.

They have a one year window and they decide to cheap out on pitching, what a solid strategy

It's November. It's a little hard to say this is their final 2016 rotation. Let the off season play out a bit.

[Harry Lime]

I don't mind Happ, but why did they trade for Chavez if they were going to sign him? Happ is a good #4 or #5, but if you really mean to start Chavez, why not spend 20M on Maeda or Shark instead of 12M on Happ? It would be 8M well spent over the course of a season, and placate the fans, as well.

And if they go out and get another starter, that puts Chavez in the pen as a long man, where I would prefer Hendricks. Happ is not going to the pen at 12M. That is elite closer money.

[JiriHrdina]

Is the rotation that bad. Let's compare it to the rotation without Stroman last year, but including Price

Price>Stroman
Estrada=Estrada
Dickey=Dickey
Happ/Chavez=Buerhle/Hutch

Sure havinng Price would be awesome, but the team has the offense to overcome average pitching. If Stroman can be a #1 - they should be OK.

[GirlySports]

rotation is decent, stroman, estrada, dickey, happ, chavez.

plus Hendricks as the long inning eater in the pen, plus hutch, lowe, sanchez, osuna in the pen

in november that's not bad, i still like Chen for 80 million as the solid lefty in the rotation.

[JiriHrdina]

Remeber Hendricks is gone though - for Chavez.

[Harry Lime]

Maybe they see Hutch as the internal replacement for Hendricks. Still two holes in the pen in a strong rally killing 7th inning guy (Lowe? O'Day?) and a left hander.

I'm thinking more and more that they pick up a couple of bullpen guys and then announce that they are done.

Edit : Happ is a lefty, so I think that they may not pursue Chen, for that reason. Really, anything beyond some non-earth-shattering moves will really be a pleasant surprise.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Buerhle was pretty effective last year for 3/4 of the season, I'd be surprised if Happ/Chavez comes close to that. Price>Stroman is true and the gap between them is whatever the difference between a true ace and a great #2 is (though Stroman has potential), but I tend to think of it as the difference between Price+Stroman+Estrada vs Stroman+Estrada+Dickey. That second option looks so, so much worse than the first to me. Like the difference between WC/playoff contention and scuffling around at .500 all season long.

Forget the 4 and 5 guys, they are easy enough to find, what you need is great top 3 as quality > quantity, every time. The depth has taken a huge hit and now it's really not far off in terms of overall quality to the rotation that started 2015 minus Stroman. Just how much better than pre-dead arm Buerhle is Stroman really going to be? Not talking about style, stuff or speed... I'm talking about results.

When it comes down to it, the Jays have spent a lot of money on a pretty 'meh' rotation. Really looking at the numbers, it appears funds could have been allocated differently and there might have been enough money to have Price, Stroman, Estrada as the top 3. It might have cost us Happ and Dickey... but really, are they that important? I'd take Sanchez and Chavez over Happ and Dickey if it meant we could've kept Price.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Maybe they see Hutch as the internal replacement for Hendricks. Still two holes in the pen in a strong rally killing 7th inning guy (Lowe? O'Day?) and a left hander.

I'm thinking more and more that they pick up a couple of bullpen guys and then announce that they are done.

I think Hutch is the internal replacement for Romero, minus the huge salary.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Buerhle was pretty effective last year for 3/4 of the season, I'd be surprised if Happ/Chavez comes close to that. Price>Stroman is true and the gap between them is whatever the difference between a true ace and a great #2 is (though Stroman has potential), but I tend to think of it as the difference between Price+Stroman+Estrada vs Stroman+Estrada+Dickey. That second option looks so, so much worse than the first to me. Like the difference between WC/playoff contention and scuffling around at .500 all season long.

Forget the 4 and 5 guys, they are easy enough to find, what you need is great top 3 as quality > quantity, every time. The depth has taken a huge hit and now it's really not far off in terms of overall quality to the rotation that started 2015 minus Stroman. Just how much better than pre-dead arm Buerhle is Stroman really going to be? Not talking about style, stuff or speed... I'm talking about results.

When it comes down to it, the Jays have spent a lot of money on a pretty 'meh' rotation. Really looking at the numbers, it appears funds could have been allocated differently and there might have been enough money to have Price, Stroman, Estrada as the top 3. It might have cost us Happ and Dickey... but really, are they that important? I'd take Sanchez and Chavez over Happ and Dickey if it meant we could've kept Price.

I think Buerhle was effective for basically half the season.
The thing with the decision to keep Dickey is that they had to make that call before knowing if they could resign Price or someone of his calibre. So you take the bird in the hand. I think it was the right call.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Maybe they see Hutch as the internal replacement for Hendricks.

Yeah, that's what I figure... Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil is your backend, Loup is the loogy, Hutch is the Longman, then you just need a couple of lower leverage guys (Venditte and a sinkerballer) and you got yourself a full bullpen.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The team will have to rely largely on generating a ton of offense to win games.

They've got the best offense in all of baseball so that's pretty likely. I know everyone wanted Price but 3 two win guys (Estrada, Happ, Chavez) is just as effective as 1 six win guy and two replacement level guys. Considering that We'll get a full year of the Stro-show I think starting pitching won't be any worse in aggregate.

[d_phaneuf]

There still has to be a trade (Pillar/Revere/Pompey are all similar) and at least a few BP signings

I don't understand the negativity, if anything the offense should be better next year just based on Tulo

He has been effectively a 5 WAR player every season he's played 120 games outside last year at 2.3, he's a guy that looks primed for a bounce back

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Is the rotation that bad. Let's compare it to the rotation without Stroman last year, but including Price

Price>Stroman
Estrada=Estrada
Dickey=Dickey
Happ/Chavez=Buerhle/Hutch

Sure havinng Price would be awesome, but the team has the offense to overcome average pitching. If Stroman can be a #1 - they should be OK.

The problem with this thinking is that for the guys returning, you're thinking they'll be the same player as the previous season. Small chance of that. Here's my ranking of the rotation compared to the average MLB pitcher - a ranking of 5.

Price - 9
Stroman - 8
Estrada - 7.5
Dickey - 6
Happ/Chavez - 5.5

Will Dickey be the same as last year? Doubtful - he'll likely lose some more speed this offseason. And Estrada? We don't know, but he should regress a little. That leaves maybe two solid guys who we think will be dependable - Price and Stroman. The bottom 3-6 are really crapshoots. Certainly there may be a breakout guy, but there's a huge chance 2 of them bust.

[jayswin]

Yeah, unfortunately if this ends up being the staring rotation we'll be set up to maybe challenge for a wildcard spot. I understand that it's only November, but the money suggests that they're done unless they strengthen pitching by weakening other areas of the line-up.

I also don't want to come off as Debbie downer, and I understand that it isn't a terrible line-up, but in the AL east you put together a "decent" line-up and unless you capture some magic you may as well have just become sellers and started rebuilding.

I guess time will tell.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Yeah, unfortunately if this ends up being the staring rotation we'll be set up to maybe challenge for a wildcard spot.

... They have the best offense in all of baseball.

Yeah I get that the pitching isn't great. But again Best. Bats. In. Baseball.

Really, amoungst position players there are just two spots where they don't get elite offense or elite fielding (1st base and LF... and even those aren't below average) and in some positions they have both. When you get right down to it the pitching should be about as good as we got last year in aggregate and the Jays won the division last year. it basically breaks down like such...

Price/Sanchez v. Stroman
Buerhle v. Happ
Dickey v. Dickey
Estrada v. Estrada
Hutchison v. Chavez

... that's last years rotation vs. this years likely rotation. Will Stroman be as good as Price? Probably not, Will Stroman be better then Sanchez? Almost certainly. In every other comparison I would say that we can probably expect a lateral performance on the whole.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

There is a chance the offense won't be as potent next year. Bautista and EE are both good for missing some time each year and both are getting older. I don't think Collabello can be counted on to replicate 2015. I love Donaldson but wouldn't be shocked if he hits a few less dingers next year. He was amazing last year, is that his new norm or was it his career year? Tulowitzki being Tulowitzki would go a long way to negating any possible regression but he did look pretty bad 90% of the time after coming over. I expect he'll be better, but you never know. Martin's career has been littered with off years as well, offensively at least. Even Pillar could see his BA drop and since he doesn't walk, he could find himself into Goins territory very easily. I guess what I'm saying is everything went right last year with the bats, I don't think it would be wise to count on that exactly again, from a managerial perspective anyway.

Bottom line is this is an extremely unbalanced team that was picked apart by a very balanced team in the playoffs, and that's when we had Price. I think anyone who is expecting the offense to make up for the pitching might be in for a surprise. How well did that work out before we got Price and some decent relievers? Well, now we're back to having a bad rotation and an average bullpen, we'll see how well that works out for us. I suspect it won't be much better than those pre August Jays of last year. For all the offense they had, they weren't going anywhere without pitching upgrades.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

There is a chance the offense won't be as potent next year. Bautista and EE are both good for missing some time each year and both are getting older. I don't think Collabello can be counted on to replicate 2015. I love Donaldson but wouldn't be shocked if he hits a few less dingers next year. He was amazing last year, is that his new norm or was it his career year? Tulowitzki being Tulowitzki would go a long way to negating any possible regression but he did look pretty bad 90% of the time after coming over. I expect he'll be better, but you never know. Martin's career has been littered with off years as well, offensively at least. Even Pillar could see his BA drop and since he doesn't walk, he could find himself into Goins territory very easily. I guess what I'm saying is everything went right last year with the bats, I don't think it would be wise to count on that exactly again, from a managerial perspective anyway.

Bottom line is this is an extremely unbalanced team that was picked apart by a very balanced team in the playoffs, and that's when we had Price. I think anyone who is expecting the offense to make up for the pitching might be in for a surprise. How well did that work out before we got Price and some decent relievers? Well, now we're back to having a bad rotation and an average bullpen, we'll see how well that works out for us. I suspect it won't be much better than those pre August Jays of last year. For all the offense they had, they weren't going anywhere without pitching upgrades.

I am not going to worry about the offense. They will be up there again in terms of potency. Devon Travis should add to the offense. Travis, JD, Bautista, EE, Tulo, Martin, Pillar etc. I don't think MLB has a more potent line up even next year.

I am worry about their starting rotation. They should put Sanchez back into the mix. Then things would look much better. We need a lefty but Happ,...not sold on what he did in Pittts will carry over to the Jays. They should spend the money for a Price, Zimmerman (too late), or Greinke. That would bring them over the top. I understand their worry on Price;s stigma haven't won in post season. Greinke, Price=1, Stroman, Sanchez, Dickey, 5A=Estrada or 5B = Happ (inconsistent) but we can only dream.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Paint it however you want, but if this is the rotation for 2016 the Jays aren't winning the AL East again IMO. Maybe they get lucky and 80ish wins is enough to play in the WC game but I doubt it.

They have a one year window and they decide to cheap out on pitching, what a solid strategy

Right. This was a .500 team at the trade deadline last year with a rotation of Estrada/Buerhle/Dickey/Hutchison/Sanchez. That was with Sanchez missing half the time and crap like Copeland/Doubront/Boyd filling the gap. And it was also a team with a massive positive run differential that was extremely unlucky to only be .500.

So now you get Stroman back, upgrade the back end of that rotation, have Estrada starting from day one, and add Tulo to an already ridiculous offense. Yet, somehow, the Jays will be worse than they were pre-deadline last year because they didn't sign Price. I didn't realize he is worth 20 wins to a team.

Let's not forget that the Jays were 30-9 from the point they acquired Price until Stroman returned. And that was with Hutchison pitching every 5th day along with Buerhle pitching on fumes to a 4.71 ERA during that span of time. Assuming Stroman can pitch like he did down the stretch, he replaces a lot of what Price brought, Dickey and Estrada are still there, and whoever fills those last two spots will almost assuredly be better than Buerhle/Hutchison were down the stretch.

The big problem with the obsession of signing a big money free agent pitcher is that is ignores the glaring hole the Jays have in terms of organizational starting pitching depth. There isn't any prospect the Jays can count on to pitch in the majors next season. Injuries will happen and until now there was absolutely no one to take those starts. Signing Price effectively meant giving the Scott Copelands, Felix Doubronts, etc. of the world at least 10 starts since it blows the budget on acquiring additional depth. That saps a lot of Price's value by forcing the Jays to roll out below replacement level guys to fill starts. Sometimes avoiding playing terrible players can be just as valuable as adding great players.

With the Jays moves they've made, they can actually go into the regular season with 7 good options to start. That's critical. They actually have a buffer in the event of injuries which are going to happen. That buffer they had last year was a guy like Estrada who basically saved their season.

Ideally, the Jays can roll out a rotation something like:
Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Sanchez

Osuna stays closer. Chavez starts as the long man, but is stretched out to sub into the rotation when someone gets inevitably hurt. Hutchison starts in AAA to get his game right and can move up to the big club if he pitches well and someone gets hurt. The Jays actually have a buffer from Scott Copeland or some other journeyman minor leaguer starting any games. And they still have some budget room to sign a decent bullpen arm or two (Mark Lowe? Ryan Madsen?) to replace Sanchez.