New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[troutman]

Genome Canada is people!

[GP_Matt]

I like Harper for his work on free trade agreements. I think that is going to be his lasting legacy as long as he doesn't stay around so long that he is hated by everyone.

I do think he is getting pretty close to or past his expiration date though and will not likely vote for the Conservatives again while he runs the party.

I don't know enough about the Liberal platform, but if it isn't terrible I think they will get my vote in the next election. Unless a party has a platform to eliminate supply management. That party would probably receive my active support if I thought they had a chance to win.

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

And yet he continues to make terrible mistakes and ignores the advice of virtually every economist in the country on matters of fiscal policy (e.g. GST cut, income splitting, etc.).

I'm not sure he's ignoring it. He just has a small problem every 4 years where he needs to get re-elected. Economists don't really have that as a concern.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Thor

This excellent blog from science blogs covers it nicely:

http://scienceblogs.com/confessions/...al-indictment/

The list is LONG and depressing...

That reads to me more like a war-on-the-environment list.

The CPC puts Canadian industry ahead of the environment. Let's call a spade a spade...they're bad for the environment.

That's not necessarily a positive thing, but saying they're anti-science sounds a lot like anti-Harper hyperbole meant to evoke images of some creationist bible-thumping religious zealot.

[fulham]

My sister just came back from interning at parliament working under a MP from Vancouver, she had some interesting tidbits of info on the three party leaders, who she was around quite a bit.

She said that Mulcair is by far the most personable of the three leaders, and is the kind of guy who knows most of the cleaning, and security staff by name, and shares a very good relationship with Harper outside of their political rhetoric, Mulcair very obviously does not like Trudeau as well.

Harper, she has seen less of as he has commitments outside of ottawa, but he comes off way different in person,then how he is portrayed by the media. He is generally a nice guy who occasionally gets moody, but is pretty light hearted and laughs at himself more you'd expect, he also will talk trash about other staffers favourite NHL team's.

Trudeau is kind of a mixed bag, He somewhat acts like he's a celebrity, whereas Mulcair, and Harper act like friendly grandpa figures. He doesn't really talk to anyone outside of a few younger liberal MP's, He doesn't really interact with anyone else. Some of this might be due to him not trusting others when anything he says can and will be used against him. But he's not all that well liked by other MP's in parliament.

this is all obviously hearsay, but its too bad i could never vote for a NDP platform because of all three leaders Mulcair is apparently the best guy politics aside.

[Bobblehead]

Mulcair sounds like Ed Broadbent - right guy, wrong party

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

That's not necessarily a positive thing, but saying they're anti-science sounds a lot like anti-Harper hyperbole meant to evoke images of some creationist bible-thumping religious zealot.

Of note: Harper appointed a Minister of Science who is a chiropractor (lol) who refused to say whether or not he accepts the theory of evolution (WTF!). His reason for not answering: he said he's a Christian and doesn't want to comment on his religion. Let that sink in for a moment: Canada's (now-former) Minister of Science thinks that evolution is a religious belief.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/sc...chers-1.800906

Federal Science Minister Gary Goodyear's refusal to say whether he believes in evolution has left scientists questioning what that means for Canadian research.

Dolph Schluter, a professor at the University of British Columbia, told CBCNews.ca in an email that he was "first flabbergasted and then embarrassed" when he heard Goodyear's response to a reporter's question about whether he believed in evolution.

"I'm not going to answer that question," Goodyear, federal minister of state for science and technology, told the Globe and Mail in an article published Tuesday. "I am a Christian, and I don't think anybody asking a question about my religion is appropriate."

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

That's not necessarily a positive thing, but saying they're anti-science sounds a lot like anti-Harper hyperbole meant to evoke images of some creationist bible-thumping religious zealot.

It's images of scientists with tape over their mouths that I get.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=277560

[edslunch]

Three Amigos summit delayed
Budget delayed

Wonder if Harper is clearing the decks for an early election?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle22462480/

[CaptainCrunch]

Doubt we'll see an early election federally.

[Resolute 14]

Oil getting its ass kicked certainly throws a wrench into the gears.

The PCs are recovering in the polls a little, and the latest Ipsos Reid poll actually puts them back in the lead. Calling an election right now on those numbers would suggest a PC minority, but if they can continue to rally support, that could help promote a majority, so waiting helps.

But, the drop in oil and the impact it will have on the budget and budget surplus creates an easy avenue for Trudeau and Mulcair to win political points: "They said they would balance the budget, they lied." There's really no good time to call the election, I think. Calling one for late February/March doesn't seem to be any better than waiting until October, so no reason to do it now.

[edslunch]

If I'm Harper I'm trying to decide if things are going to get better or worse by October considering Duffy(-), Budget(possibly big -), income splitting putting $ in pockets (+). I could see him spinning economic uncertainty, security uncertainty, need a steady hand, need a mandate, yadda yadda and pulling the trigger on a spring election. More risk waiting till fall

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Oil getting its ass kicked certainly throws a wrench into the gears.

The PCs are recovering in the polls a little, and the latest Ipsos Reid poll actually puts them back in the lead. Calling an election right now on those numbers would suggest a PC minority, but if they can continue to rally support, that could help promote a majority, so waiting helps.

But, the drop in oil and the impact it will have on the budget and budget surplus creates an easy avenue for Trudeau and Mulcair to win political points: "They said they would balance the budget, they lied." There's really no good time to call the election, I think. Calling one for late February/March doesn't seem to be any better than waiting until October, so no reason to do it now.

I also kind of think most Canadians would be smart enough to see that for what it is (Harper avoiding the Senate report). I think it's a risky play because if he does so, Trudeau and Mulcair can hammer him for it as an admission of guilt.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I also kind of think most Canadians would be smart enough to see that for what it is (Harper avoiding the Senate report). I think it's a risky play because if he does so, Trudeau and Mulcair can hammer him for it as an admission of guilt.

True, but he called an early election before and there was little blowback

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by edslunch

If I'm Harper I'm trying to decide if things are going to get better or worse by October considering Duffy(-), Budget(possibly big -), income splitting putting $ in pockets (+). I could see him spinning economic uncertainty, security uncertainty, need a steady hand, need a mandate, yadda yadda and pulling the trigger on a spring election. More risk waiting till fall

I'm not sure if this is as big a vote-winner for Harper as you think. The vast majority of households will be no better off with income splitting. I can't imagine a tax cut that only benefits a relatively small percentage of the population is going to go over well at a time when the government is running a deficit.

If we have a spring election, I also wonder how much -- if at all -- voters will care about Harper violating his own fixed election date law for a second time.

[rubecube]

Another thing to consider is, if the Bloc are a complete non-factor in the next election and the Conservatives win a minority, would the Liberals and NDP bite the bullet and former a coalition government?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Another thing to consider is, if the Bloc are a complete non-factor in the next election and the Conservatives win a minority, would the Liberals and NDP bite the bullet and former a coalition government?

I would have no problem with that as long as they put it on the table for voters at the beginning by saying it is a possible outcome. It's possible that some Liberal voters would prefer to keep the Conservatives than to invite the NDP to help form the government and so the voters have a right to know that before they vote.

In some countries, the possibility of coalitions is implicit, I think because it is not the norm in Canada, it would deserve discussion before dropping that bomb after an election.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Another thing to consider is, if the Bloc are a complete non-factor in the next election and the Conservatives win a minority, would the Liberals and NDP bite the bullet and former a coalition government?

I can't see it with Mulcair leading the NDP, he absolutely dislikes Trudeau and would rather try to pummel him on the election trail and in the debates.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I can't see it with Mulcair leading the NDP, he absolutely dislikes Trudeau and would rather try to pummel him on the election trail and in the debates.

All politicians seem that way in the heat of the race, but many are willing to do whatever once faced with defeat.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I also kind of think most Canadians would be smart enough to see that for what it is (Harper avoiding the Senate report). I think it's a risky play because if he does so, Trudeau and Mulcair can hammer him for it as an admission of guilt.

I think you overestimate most Canadians, really. Most people would only see it as Harper avoiding the Senate report if Trudeau and Mulcair ram it down their throats enough times that it sticks. The same, of course, applies to the narrative the Conservatives and NDP are trying to build around Trudeau's suitability to lead the country.