Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[transplant99]

Cozens is soft as butter and terrible defensively.

OK...now I have been assured you really have no idea of which you speak. LOL!!

Carry on.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK...now I have been assured you really have no idea of which you speak. LOL!!

Carry on.

I provided you with the stats which also match the eye test.

Can you provide me the stats that show he is good defensively. He’s also shooting at his career average shooting % and 65 point season he shot 5% higher.

Signs of a player who may have peaked already and is back playing to what he is and his career averages.

But I’d love to see the numbers showing he’s a good defensive player.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Correct.

The anti-bottoming crowd rarely seems to pitch a path to success, but rather just poo poo the idea of bottoming out.

So, if the idea of bottoming out is a no-go, then what is the actual plan? How do the Flames gather enough assets to build themselves into a contending team?

Look at the scouting and drafting criteria and evaluate why players picked did not turn out and why players that the team passed on have worked out.

Change the scouting and drafting criteria to make sure that you are looking for and drafting high skill, high hockey IQ players, and high character players.

Every year the goal should be to add two more picks in the first three rounds. Add a second first round pick at least every three years.

Higher and retain the best and most scouts in the league. Be prepared to out pay, incentivize, and treat your scouts better than every other team out there.

Do not rush in prospects because the fanbase is yelling to have the new shiny toy make the team. Let players properly develop.

Have the best development coaching staff available. Make sure that you have experts coaching prospects at all levels about what they need to work on and how they need to get better.

Provide mental coaching where possible.

Invest in VR equipment and programing to provide opportunities for players to experience game reps without having to be in the games.

Create a high standard of excellence with zero excuses and 100% accountability at every level from the owners, through management and coaches, down to the players and prospects.

Do not have a contract on a player older than 32. Ideally when they are 30 you are trying to sell off your older players and replenishing your cupboard with picks and prospects.

Do not trade picks for playoff rental players. Do not trade picks in the first three rounds for players that are not top six on the team that you do not have control over.

Be bold when it comes to making moves. Take your chances when there are players like Eichel, Thornton, O'Reiley, Seguin, or Reinhart that come available. Look for opportunities to trade for players under 25 that will upgrade your top 10 players.

Pretty easy philosophy and strategy to follow. But there has to be complete buy in throughout the entire organization and a certain degree of deafness towards the fanbase.

Last is too embrace luck. Even the tear it to the ground and finish bottom five in the league for half a dozen years so that a decade later you might win the cup has to acknowledge that they need to have a great deal of luck working for them in their strategy as well.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The Flames do not have any real cap considerations anytime soon. Assuming the cap goes up by 6 million a year after next year this is what their cap situation looks.

25/26 - cap 92.5 million, currently have 51.5 million in salary for 13 players. 40 million in cap space for 10 players. Young players to sign for the next season - Zary, Coronato, Pelletier

26/27 - cap 98.5 million, 35.6 million in salary for 6 players (plus whatever Coronato, Zary, Pelletier cost). Young players to sign - Wolf, Pospisil. Cap space would be 62.9 million dollars for 17 players including Coronato, Zary, Pelletier)

27/28 - cap 104.5 million. Only young players to sign is Honzek. Boatloads of cap room.

28/29 would be the earliest they would have to sign anyone from the 2024 draft class.

In all likelihood 29/30 is the earliest they would have to sign anyone from the 2025 draft class and maybe a guy from the 2026 draft class if that player makes the NHL in their 18 year old year.

By 2030 the only contracts that will be left on the books is one more year of Huberdeau and one more year of Weegar. The Flames problem in the next 3-5 years, barring a crazy UFA spending spree will be to reach the cap floor. Even if they added a big contract like Pettersson it is highly unlikely that they will ever get into cap trouble this decade. They actually just don’t have anyone they need to sign that they won’t be able to sign to whatever term they want because they have so much cap space.

26/27 you are forgetting 2 keys things. 5.2 billion goes away that’s about 450M in HRR that will need to be replaced with a new TV deal. With dwindling ratings for a lot of reasons I can’t see them making the same.

We are most likely headed towards a lockout. Gary has always had a lockout and I don’t see that changing. NFL and NBA reduced the players share of the pot below 50%. Contract lengths and trade protection.

I think those 2 things keep the cap from growing at the pace it has but who knows.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by shutout

Look at the scouting and drafting criteria and evaluate why players picked did not turn out and why players that the team passed on have worked out.

Change the scouting and drafting criteria to make sure that you are looking for and drafting high skill, high hockey IQ players, and high character players.

Every year the goal should be to add two more picks in the first three rounds. Add a second first round pick at least every three years.

Higher and retain the best and most scouts in the league. Be prepared to out pay, incentivize, and treat your scouts better than every other team out there.

Do not rush in prospects because the fanbase is yelling to have the new shiny toy make the team. Let players properly develop.

Have the best development coaching staff available. Make sure that you have experts coaching prospects at all levels about what they need to work on and how they need to get better.

Provide mental coaching where possible.

Invest in VR equipment and programing to provide opportunities for players to experience game reps without having to be in the games.

Create a high standard of excellence with zero excuses and 100% accountability at every level from the owners, through management and coaches, down to the players and prospects.

Do not have a contract on a player older than 32. Ideally when they are 30 you are trying to sell off your older players and replenishing your cupboard with picks and prospects.

Do not trade picks for playoff rental players. Do not trade picks in the first three rounds for players that are not top six on the team that you do not have control over.

Be bold when it comes to making moves. Take your chances when there are players like Eichel, Thornton, O'Reiley, Seguin, or Reinhart that come available. Look for opportunities to trade for players under 25 that will upgrade your top 10 players.

Pretty easy philosophy and strategy to follow. But there has to be complete buy in throughout the entire organization and a certain degree of deafness towards the fanbase.

Last is too embrace luck. Even the tear it to the ground and finish bottom five in the league for half a dozen years so that a decade later you might win the cup has to acknowledge that they need to have a great deal of luck working for them in their strategy as well.

Is that all? Good thing we are the only team trying to win, or it might be hard.

[Goriders]

If the Flames big missing peace is a younger first line center no one is going to trade us one unless there’s a situation like Vancouver's where he’s not fitting in culturally. I don’t see anyone in the Flames system that’s going to fill that rile anytime soon. I’d be surprised if Conroy isn’t putting feelers out. We’ve obviously had a trade history with vancouver before. Doesn’t hurt to ask.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by shutout

Look at the scouting and drafting criteria and evaluate why players picked did not turn out and why players that the team passed on have worked out.

Change the scouting and drafting criteria to make sure that you are looking for and drafting high skill, high hockey IQ players, and high character players.

Every year the goal should be to add two more picks in the first three rounds. Add a second first round pick at least every three years.

Higher and retain the best and most scouts in the league. Be prepared to out pay, incentivize, and treat your scouts better than every other team out there.

Do not rush in prospects because the fanbase is yelling to have the new shiny toy make the team. Let players properly develop.

Have the best development coaching staff available. Make sure that you have experts coaching prospects at all levels about what they need to work on and how they need to get better.

Provide mental coaching where possible.

Invest in VR equipment and programing to provide opportunities for players to experience game reps without having to be in the games.

Create a high standard of excellence with zero excuses and 100% accountability at every level from the owners, through management and coaches, down to the players and prospects.

Do not have a contract on a player older than 32. Ideally when they are 30 you are trying to sell off your older players and replenishing your cupboard with picks and prospects.

Do not trade picks for playoff rental players. Do not trade picks in the first three rounds for players that are not top six on the team that you do not have control over.

Be bold when it comes to making moves. Take your chances when there are players like Eichel, Thornton, O'Reiley, Seguin, or Reinhart that come available. Look for opportunities to trade for players under 25 that will upgrade your top 10 players.

Pretty easy philosophy and strategy to follow. But there has to be complete buy in throughout the entire organization and a certain degree of deafness towards the fanbase.

Last is too embrace luck. Even the tear it to the ground and finish bottom five in the league for half a dozen years so that a decade later you might win the cup has to acknowledge that they need to have a great deal of luck working for them in their strategy as well.

I don’t disagree with a lot of what you said. But sucking for a decade might not be best for maintaining your fan base.

[Bingo]

I'm pretty sure Conroy is as surprised as any of us at what's happened to this team in the first half of the season.

If he thought they were a playoff contending team he'd likely have added to the team with the copious cap space and not entered the year with that much gun powder.

But once you're here, you're here. I certainly respect the dynamics of franchise/team building when a team has over achieved and what to do with that. He doesn't have to add, but going out of his way to trade Coleman and Andersson prematurely to make them worse is a pretty ugly poison pill to insert into a dressing room.

Ride it out ... get that Florida gap tight and see where you are in June.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

If the Flames are going to give up a bunch of assets for a center you would far rather get a PPG center like Pettersson than Cozens. Pettersson scores at a PPG rate, that is a top 8 center in the league. I would much rather have a guy who is in the top 6.25% of centers in the league than a guy who is the top 47% of the league in terms of scoring.

If Conroy is going center hunting right now I hope he is going big game hunting and going after Pettersson as opposed to grabbing something in the middle of the league.

Yes, Pettersson is a much better player than Cozens, that's why he earns $11.6M. But there is more to it than that.

1) Pettersson costs $11.6M per year and is 26. That's #1C money, and I think he is a flawed #1C.

2) With Huberdeau and Kadri on the books as well, that's using up a lot of cap for 3 guys that are 34, 31 and 26. What kind of core building is that? As Pettersson is entering his prime years, the other guys are sliding out of theirs. There is little on our current roster in the same age/career group as Pettersson - we don't have the pieces to build around him.

3) Cost of acquisition - Pettersson would cost us some young pieces. Do we have some? Yes. Are we in a position to start moving them out? No. We have an old core that needs replacing. We need youth. Acquiring Pettersson pushes out that youth acquisition, meaning that Pettersson himself will be in his 30s before we can build around him.

If you're going to go all in acquiring a guy that is going to make $11.6M for the next 7 years, it has to be the right guy, at the right time. I don't think he's the right guy, and this is definitely NOT the right time.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm pretty sure Conroy is as surprised as any of us at what's happened to this team in the first half of the season.

If he thought they were a playoff contending team he'd likely have added to the team with the copious cap space and not entered the year with that much gun powder.

But once you're here, you're here. I certainly respect the dynamics of franchise/team building when a team has over achieved and what to do with that. He doesn't have to add, but going out of his way to trade Coleman and Andersson prematurely to make them worse is a pretty ugly poison pill to insert into a dressing room.

Ride it out ... get that Florida gap tight and see where you are in June.

Trading Andersson isn’t to sewer the season, it’s asset management.

You have to look at the big picture with him. Will be 29 and his play has regressed the last 3 years for whatever reason. Not a player that should be in our long term plans, but likely our best trade chip.

You never know because we don’t know if what we get offered today would be worse in October or March 26. But if his play continues to slip you risk the offers maybe not being as good.

His cap should be easy to absorb for a contender as well. Think having that cost certainty for next season would lead to some good offers.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon Surfer

All I want is a team that looks good enough that I can see a plausible path to the cup. They don't need to win the cup, but I need it to seem plausible enough that I want to cheer for them.

Some of the Iginla Kiprusoff teams hit that mark and it was fun.

The Tkachuk Gaudreau era never had a team that was good enough to get my hopes up. All those teams were too flawed, they never had enough pieces to make it. Trying to patch it up with UFA spending and trading futures turned into a depressing death spiral.

Wolf gives me hope for the future, but goalie god mode alone is not plausible enough. There is so much building left to do.

Username checks out!

Seriously though, I agree with you.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I don't just want a team with a "plausible path to the cup" - though this might be more fair and realistic.

Rather, what I want is a team that is a genuine contender and has 5+ consecutive stabs at the cup.
Washington led the division many times before winning the cup. Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and LA all had several stabs at the can as contenders. Even Vegas and Florida can be included in this group.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket for one playoff run. Rather, the team should be elite for a handful of years.
Cap efficiency and asset management matter.

We all do, but this requires luck as well as good team building. And if you focus too much on it, you create a boom-bust cycle that some teams are on. That might work in Anaheim but it won't fly in Canada.

Have a good process, remain focused on drafting and developing and good asset management. (somewhat like Carolina, for example)

When things come together and you have some good talent at the right age, then great, add to it. But you have to be critical in determining that - don't spend assets every year that you're in a playoff position, be honest and accept that some years, you're just a playoff team (not a contender). Let it be and stick to the plan.

[jayswin]

Not to mention Petterson would be about 30ish by the time we were ready to start contend, most likely.

[jayswin]

It took me four frustrating tries to type that on my phone, with that F-ing ad taking over my screen that you can't close. ************!!!!!!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Trading Andersson isn’t to sewer the season, it’s asset management.

You have to look at the big picture with him. Will be 29 and his play has regressed the last 3 years for whatever reason. Not a player that should be in our long term plans, but likely our best trade chip.

You never know because we don’t know if what we get offered today would be worse in October or March 26. But if his play continues to slip you risk the offers maybe not being as good.

His cap should be easy to absorb for a contender as well. Think having that cost certainty for next season would lead to some good offers.

Yes, it's asset management.

But you have to be cognizant of where you are. Trading Andersson while they are sitting in a playoff position, likely rips the heart out of that dressing room. The potential cost to that could be greater than the extra return you get by trading him now vs later.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Not to mention Petterson would be about 30ish by the time we were ready to start contend, most likely.

Yes, that's one of the points I was attempting to make. (poorly, obviously)

If Pettersson was 22 right now, I would be much more in favour of possibly acquiring him.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, that's one of the points I was attempting to make. (poorly, obviously)

If Pettersson was 22 right now, I would be much more in favour of possibly acquiring him.

No, you were clear. I was actually responding to Bingos post above yours but it took five friggin minutes with these ads, lol

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Not to mention Petterson would be about 30ish by the time we were ready to start contend, most likely.

Probably why rebuilding teams don’t make these type of trades. Especially in year 1.

We are already behind the 8 ball now. We need to add young elite talent to the guys like Zary, Coronato and Wolf quickly before they age out as well.

Probably why teams tear it down completely because you are drafting players closer in age range to grow together.

We still have time with the next 2 drafts after this year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Trading Andersson isn’t to sewer the season, it’s asset management.

You have to look at the big picture with him. Will be 29 and his play has regressed the last 3 years for whatever reason. Not a player that should be in our long term plans, but likely our best trade chip.
.

You keep saying this, but I don't think it's the case at all.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, it's asset management.

But you have to be cognizant of where you are. Trading Andersson while they are sitting in a playoff position, likely rips the heart out of that dressing room. The potential cost to that could be greater than the extra return you get by trading him now vs later.

And the market likely isn't in an optimal place for a trade right now. More teams will enter the market as they near the deadline, have clarity on their needs, and have some cap space.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, it's asset management.

But you have to be cognizant of where you are. Trading Andersson while they are sitting in a playoff position, likely rips the heart out of that dressing room. The potential cost to that could be greater than the extra return you get by trading him now vs later.

We traded Glencross in a playoff spot that was more urgent, but the team was fine after.

I don’t know how much of an impact it would have. Maybe immediately and to the vets mostly but over time it wears off. It’s a business and you always have to put the team first and the long term vision.

I remember when the Hawks fired Savard and the dressing room was in tears. 6 months later they had years of joy with the cup.

Coleman also mentioned how having those guys that didn’t want to be here did cause tension in the room and it was much better once they got traded. If we go into next season with Andersson in the same situation you create a distraction.

I’m fine trading him in the offseason as well. It was more that he shouldn’t be in our long term plans.