Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Most guys continually improve year over year (like Reinhart did in Buffalo as did Eichel). It is a pretty big red flag to me that Cozens is unable to do that in a similar environment to what those guys played in.

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

His underlying numbers suck as well year over year. It’s a massive red flag.

He just might get a player who peaked early and is on a downward trajectory. Paying 7.1M for a 3rd liner will will be difficult.

I don’t see it in him. He sucks at almost every aspect of the game. Big and low IQ and overpaid.

Idk guys- I could be wrong (and please forgive me if I am, cuz I'm not the biggest follower of advanced stats), but his underlying numbers look fairly good to me considering his age, and the fact he plays for Buffalo. Doesn't look like anything that can't be cleaned up by a change in environment....

Definitely not superstar numbers, but not that bad either.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Idk guys- I could be wrong (and please forgive me if I am, cuz I'm not the biggest follower of advanced stats), but his underlying numbers look fairly good to me considering his age, and the fact he plays for Buffalo. Doesn't look like anything that can't be cleaned up by a change in environment....

Definitely not superstar numbers, but not that bad either.

I don’t know anything about advanced stats, I was just looking at his points per game over the years and comparing that to the trajectory of Eichel and Reinhart in the same organization. If the Flames did get him I would expect the acquisition cost to be low. He makes more than Kadri and it seems likely Kadri will outscore him for the remainder of their respective contracts so maybe if the Flames want to get younger it is Kadri out and Cozens in in two separate trades with no lost in relative assets.

[Paulie Walnuts]

It was posted by SuperMatt. His corsi for numbers are in the 40s his xGF is a negative. He’s on the ice for more high danger chances against than for. If you add in his dwindling point totals it’s telling me a story of a player who is being paid 7.1M to get caved in. It matches the eye test. His faceoff numbers are awful as well, we need to be cognizant of that as we stink as well.

I’d rather we not have an overpaid 3rd liner. I would rather pay our players first in our system.

I also don’t see Conory doing the Treliving and trying to grind every RFA we have. He’s not going to just give a blank cheque but I think he is a guy who will pay to get those extra 2 years.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

If you sign them to short term contracts Craig will be forced to go out and spend big bucks on free agency this summer and next. Assuming the cap floor is 68 million bucks next year the Flames currently only have about 51 million in salaries. If they are not getting to the cap floor with the RFAs they will need to go hand out some big contracts to UFAs to get there.

I don’t think he’s going to have a choice with free agents since the Flames have a relatively young and unproven roster as well as some gaps. If they ship out more vets at the deadline the problem will get worse. Don’t think they will be able to completely get away from free agents.

[Paulie Walnuts]

The Flames are far from a young unproven roster. We are led by 30 plus players. We have integrated 3 young players this year.

If we trade vets those holes aren’t being filled by going to free agency and singing worse contracts for old players. They will fill the gaps with our own players. Craig has said we won’t be a player in free agency for a while and it won’t be much either when we are.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I did. Buffalo signed a much worse player after a career year to 7.1 who is tracking to be a 3rd liner.

The Avs signed a goalie with a worse track record after 4 games to almost 6M on a long term deal.

You think they will sign 2 year bridge deals ? It’s in our best interest to lock them up and pay up.

In what universe is Cozens a comparable to Coronato? Cuz they are both 1st round picks?

When Cozens signed his deal, he was a 21 year old who had played 200 NHL contests and averaged .6 pts a game or 48 pts a season.

Coronato is already older than Cozens was at that point and has played 68 games at a pace that averages out at 34 pts a season.

Not to mention the respective positions they play.

Coronato has a long long way to go to be even thought of in a 7M a year way.


Also, even if Cozens tops out at a 50 point guy (there is still a ton of room to get better there IMO) that is not a 3rd line player. 60 C's hit that mark or better last year....less than 2 per team. So how is that "3rd line" production?

Also also....you think the Avs just decided to sign Blackwood on the 4 games he had played for them??

Or maybe, just maybe, they have been scouting him and watching him for a few years now and THAT is what swayed them to trade and sign him to some term?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by transplant99

In what universe is Cozens a comparable to Coronato? Cuz they are both 1st round picks?

When Cozens signed his deal, he was a 21 year old who had played 200 NHL contests and averaged .6 pts a game or 48 pts a season.

Coronato is already older than Cozens was at that point and has played 68 games at a pace that averages out at 34 pts a season.

Not to mention the respective positions they play.

Coronato has a long long way to go to be even thought of in a 7M a year way.


Also, even if Cozens tops out at a 50 point guy (there is still a ton of room to get better there IMO) that is not a 3rd line player. 60 C's hit that mark or better last year....less than 2 per team. So how is that "3rd line" production?

Also also....you think the Avs just decided to sign Blackwood on the 4 games he had played for them??

Or maybe, just maybe, they have been scouting him and watching him for a few years now and THAT is what swayed them to trade and sign him to some term?

If the Flames are going to give up a bunch of assets for a center you would far rather get a PPG center like Pettersson than Cozens. Pettersson scores at a PPG rate, that is a top 8 center in the league. I would much rather have a guy who is in the top 6.25% of centers in the league than a guy who is the top 47% of the league in terms of scoring.

If Conroy is going center hunting right now I hope he is going big game hunting and going after Pettersson as opposed to grabbing something in the middle of the league.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by transplant99

In what universe is Cozens a comparable to Coronato? Cuz they are both 1st round picks?

When Cozens signed his deal, he was a 21 year old who had played 200 NHL contests and averaged .6 pts a game or 48 pts a season.

Coronato is already older than Cozens was at that point and has played 68 games at a pace that averages out at 34 pts a season.

Not to mention the respective positions they play.

Coronato has a long long way to go to be even thought of in a 7M a year way.


Also, even if Cozens tops out at a 50 point guy (there is still a ton of room to get better there IMO) that is not a 3rd line player. 60 C's hit that mark or better last year....less than 2 per team. So how is that "3rd line" production?

Also also....you think the Avs just decided to sign Blackwood on the 4 games he had played for them??

Or maybe, just maybe, they have been scouting him and watching him for a few years now and THAT is what swayed them to trade and sign him to some term?

Coronato is at 47 point pace this year. Gunther signed 7.2M after a year at a 63 point pace 8% of the cap.

So if we give Coronato 7% of a 93M cap that’s 6.5M a year. We likely we want him signed up for the full 8 years. You think 500k a year is enough to buy up some UFA years ?

Or do you think they want to play that bridge game again ? Potentially costing us more or even the player.

I feel like Conory watched carefully all the massive gaffes Treliving made and doing it differently. 20M cap space. Trading away pending UFA. Stocking up on draft capital and not trading it away for bums. Singing very short deals for any UFA.

Like I said he won’t just splurge on the RFA players but I don’t think he’s going to penny pinch either.

We also have Zary as well and Wolf. Everyone is praising them and rightfully so for having the team being in the spot they are, so we will have to pay them. 2nd line talent isn’t going to be 3-4M like before.

Cozens is settling in nicely as a 40 point player right now that is a 3rd liner. Add in he stinks defensively, isn’t good at faceoffs, he’s not a guy you target with much assets.

[stamps]

Playoffs

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I still think if Cozens can get out of that s**t show, he will become the #1/ 1b Center that he was projected to be. Hypothetically, if he was to be traded here, we have a coaching staff that is good at communicating, and teaching- and a pretty good leadership group.

I don't see anything like a 1C in him. Maybe 2C but even that seems like a weak role for him, he's better at the wing. I don't think it's a leadership or teaching thing, it's just the way he plays.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The Flames are far from a young unproven roster. We are led by 30 plus players. We have integrated 3 young players this year.

If we trade vets those holes aren’t being filled by going to free agency and singing worse contracts for old players. They will fill the gaps with our own players. Craig has said we won’t be a player in free agency for a while and it won’t be much either when we are.

But if you are trading away $5-7 million vets I don’t see any youngsters ready for that kind of contract. They are going to have to make up the $$ somewhere to meet the cap floor. I think math is going to force some veteran contracts into the mix. Which I guess creates the debate of why not just keep your own vets if you are happy with them and they want to stay for a reasonable number and term.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Coronato is at 47 point pace this year. Gunther signed 7.2M after a year at a 63 point pace 8% of the cap.

So if we give Coronato 7% of a 93M cap that’s 6.5M a year. We likely we want him signed up for the full 8 years. You think 500k a year is enough to buy up some UFA years ?

Or do you think they want to play that bridge game again ? Potentially costing us more or even the player.

I feel like Conory watched carefully all the massive gaffes Treliving made and doing it differently. 20M cap space. Trading away pending UFA. Stocking up on draft capital and not trading it away for bums. Singing very short deals for any UFA.

Like I said he won’t just splurge on the RFA players but I don’t think he’s going to penny pinch either.

We also have Zary as well and Wolf. Everyone is praising them and rightfully so for having the team being in the spot they are, so we will have to pay them. 2nd line talent isn’t going to be 3-4M like before.

Cozens is settling in nicely as a 40 point player right now that is a 3rd liner. Add in he stinks defensively, isn’t good at faceoffs, he’s not a guy you target with much assets.

Which is exactly why he should be a target. Big under 25 center has scored nearly thirty. Get him out of that loser organization with some better coaching no reason he shouldnt improve. Would he have the immediate impact peterson would? No. However, cost long term as well as short term, i dont see conroy forking out vans price unless Anderson is involved or one of our other long term contracts is involved. Kadri, sharky or Coleman or huby. Cap implications have to be a consideration. Or we end up being stacked top line without much money for anything else.

I dont see peterson coming here unless one of our long term contracts goes out so im not sure a deal can be had here.

However if you could swing a deal for both?

Anderson/sharky/kadri, basha/battaglia/stromgren + for peterson. Depends on the plus would not want to give up firsts maybe a gridin or suniev instead.

Cozens for Anderson batteglia/ basha or a first instead? Those are the types of prices we would be looking at as i see it

Center depth
Peterson
Kadri
Cozens
Zary
Backs
Kerins

If cozens becomes a middle six top six thats the kind of center depth this team has never had.

Maybe?

[Paulie Walnuts]

I’m not trading our best trade chip in Andersson plus a top prospect and a 1st for a reclamation project who likely tops out as a 3rd liner and may have to be converted to a winger to play up the lineup.

It seems like you think Pettersson will cost less than Cozens?

Teams typically don’t start trading away picks and prospects in year 1 of a rebuild. I do that once you have added elite talent to the roster. Unless elite talent is available for trade we probably should do what we are doing sit still.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I’m not trading our best trade chip in Andersson plus a top prospect and a 1st for a reclamation project who likely tops out as a 3rd liner and may have to be converted to a winger to play up the lineup.

It seems like you think Pettersson will cost less than Cozens?

Teams typically don’t start trading away picks and prospects in year 1 of a rebuild. I do that once you have added elite talent to the roster. Unless elite talent is available for trade we probably should do what we are doing sit still.

Anderson and cozens are a 1 for 1 swap, maybe didnt lay it out well, or a basha / batteglia and a pick type deal. Yes you are absolutely taking a chance he stays a bottom six and the price should reflect that.

Peterson deal i had at Anderson plus top prospect plus. But again i think its hard to manage cap without one of our long term fontracts going back.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Fan69

Which is exactly why he should be a target. Big under 25 center has scored nearly thirty. Get him out of that loser organization with some better coaching no reason he shouldnt improve. Would he have the immediate impact peterson would? No. However, cost long term as well as short term, i dont see conroy forking out vans price unless Anderson is involved or one of our other long term contracts is involved. Kadri, sharky or Coleman or huby. Cap implications have to be a consideration. Or we end up being stacked top line without much money for anything else.

I dont see peterson coming here unless one of our long term contracts goes out so im not sure a deal can be had here.

However if you could swing a deal for both?

Anderson/sharky/kadri, basha/battaglia/stromgren + for peterson. Depends on the plus would not want to give up firsts maybe a gridin or suniev instead.

Cozens for Anderson batteglia/ basha or a first instead? Those are the types of prices we would be looking at as i see it

Center depth
Peterson
Kadri
Cozens
Zary
Backs
Kerins

If cozens becomes a middle six top six thats the kind of center depth this team has never had.

Maybe?

The Flames do not have any real cap considerations anytime soon. Assuming the cap goes up by 6 million a year after next year this is what their cap situation looks.

25/26 - cap 92.5 million, currently have 51.5 million in salary for 13 players. 40 million in cap space for 10 players. Young players to sign for the next season - Zary, Coronato, Pelletier

26/27 - cap 98.5 million, 35.6 million in salary for 6 players (plus whatever Coronato, Zary, Pelletier cost). Young players to sign - Wolf, Pospisil. Cap space would be 62.9 million dollars for 17 players including Coronato, Zary, Pelletier)

27/28 - cap 104.5 million. Only young players to sign is Honzek. Boatloads of cap room.

28/29 would be the earliest they would have to sign anyone from the 2024 draft class.

In all likelihood 29/30 is the earliest they would have to sign anyone from the 2025 draft class and maybe a guy from the 2026 draft class if that player makes the NHL in their 18 year old year.

By 2030 the only contracts that will be left on the books is one more year of Huberdeau and one more year of Weegar. The Flames problem in the next 3-5 years, barring a crazy UFA spending spree will be to reach the cap floor. Even if they added a big contract like Pettersson it is highly unlikely that they will ever get into cap trouble this decade. They actually just don’t have anyone they need to sign that they won’t be able to sign to whatever term they want because they have so much cap space.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Fan69

Anderson and cozens are a 1 for 1 swap, maybe didnt lay it out well, or a basha / batteglia and a pick type deal. Yes you are absolutely taking a chance he stays a bottom six and the price should reflect that.

Peterson deal i had at Anderson plus top prospect plus. But again i think its hard to manage cap without one of our long term fontracts going back.

I wouldn’t do Andersson for Cozens 1 for 1 either unless they had a pick or top prospect.

It’s unrealistic as well. Anyone with trade protection isn’t waiving to go to Buffalo, especially if they want to win.

It’s what happens when the league hands out these ridiculous trade clauses.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

If the Flames are going to give up a bunch of assets for a center you would far rather get a PPG center like Pettersson than Cozens. Pettersson scores at a PPG rate, that is a top 8 center in the league. I would much rather have a guy who is in the top 6.25% of centers in the league than a guy who is the top 47% of the league in terms of scoring.

If Conroy is going center hunting right now I hope he is going big game hunting and going after Pettersson as opposed to grabbing something in the middle of the league.

OK...though really not sure what that has to do with what I posted?

But IMO, Pettersson is no kind of fit for what Conroy is doing here in the type of players he wants.

He is soft as butter when it comes to physical parts of the game and clearly he is in the middle of a #####storm in Vancouver. No idea if it falls on him or Miller or someone else, but chances are pretty good he is at least part of the problem which cannot be ignored. Yeah he is fantastic with lots of ice to work in, but when things get tight he is somewhat neutered.

Obviously he is more talented offensively than Cozens, but there is a whole lot more to playing effective Center than points.

JT Millers game is much more suited to what the Flames are doing vs EP, but because of age is not really a fit here either.

Cozens style of game I would say is much more along the lines of what CC is building, not to mention his age. His trajectory is to be more of a power forward and those guys take time. His hockey IQ is really high and bodes well for him to improve a lot offensively which will compliment his already solid defensive game.

I dont believe either of them end up in Calgary though so its a moot point.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK...though really not sure what that has to do with what I posted?

But IMO, Pettersson is no kind of fit for what Conroy is doing here in the type of players he wants.

He is soft as butter when it comes to physical parts of the game and clearly he is in the middle of a #####storm in Vancouver. No idea if it falls on him or Miller or someone else, but chances are pretty good he is at least part of the problem which cannot be ignored. Yeah he is fantastic with lots of ice to work in, but when things get tight he is somewhat neutered.

Obviously he is more talented offensively than Cozens, but there is a whole lot more to playing effective Center than points.

JT Millers game is much more suited to what the Flames are doing vs EP, but because of age is not really a fit here either.

Cozens style of game I would say is much more along the lines of what CC is building, not to mention his age. His trajectory is to be more of a power forward and those guys take time. His hockey IQ is really high and bodes well for him to improve a lot offensively which will compliment his already solid defensive game.

I dont believe either of them end up in Calgary though so its a moot point.

I would be surprised if Cozens turns into a power forward. At all levels he has played at he has had the physicality more of a Joe Colborne with way better wheels. The guy is far more likely to win the Lady Bing than he is to be the next Keith Tkachuk.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I would be surprised if Cozens turns into a power forward. At all levels he has played at he has had the physicality more of a Joe Colborne with way better wheels. The guy is far more likely to win the Lady Bing than he is to be the next Keith Tkachuk.

People look at his size and think this what he should be instead of watching him and saying he’s a big physical high IQ power forward.

In the same post calling Pettersson not what we want and soft as butter when Cozens is soft as butter and terrible defensively.

Maybe we should go back and listen to what Craig said. He never said he’s building a black and blue Brian Burke team. He said fast and skilled and a team that can be exciting and score goals. He even used Edmonton as point in saying we need to play with speed and skill to beat them.

[flambers]

Flames will push for "playoffs", likely will finish just outside is my guess.

Games will get tougher in the second half, Flames will struggle within this segment.

Before the deadline, I do think the Flames will acquire a center (right shot).

Will it be a number 1C, nope