The 2016 US American Election Thread

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I hope that's right... not sure how I got it so backwards in that case.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

So someone like George W. Bush should have a similar amount of baggage, right? Someone like Al Gore should as well, right?

After all, those fit your criteria of being in the public spotlight for multiple presidencies.

Bush had loads of baggage, from a DUI that he then successfully hid through most of his public life, cocaine allegations, insider trading allegations, tenuous connections to bin Laden (not serious connections, but the sort of stuff that today's internet conspiracy theorists would have a field day with), gaining everything he achieved through nepotism, questions about his military service (using his dad's connections to avoid going to vietnam, getting into the national reserves instead and then going AWOL)...

Most of these allegations are likely false, like most of the allegations about Clinton. But I think in today's culture they would have blown up far more than they did in 2000.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by peter12

This is a good place to start.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...y_clinton.html

A good piece by Hitchens, though he obviously has an axe to grind. However, it's written in retrospect, and to me doesn't really explain the vitriol thrown at her during the Clinton administration, even prior to the Lewinsky scandal.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Bush had loads of baggage, from a DUI that he then successfully hid through most of his public life, cocaine allegations, insider trading allegations, tenuous connections to bin Laden (not serious connections, but the sort of stuff that today's internet conspiracy theorists would have a field day with), gaining everything he achieved through nepotism, questions about his military service (using his dad's connections to avoid going to vietnam, getting into the national reserves instead and then going AWOL)...

Most of these allegations are likely false, like most of the allegations about Clinton. But I think in today's culture they would have blown up far more than they did in 2000.

I think you are forgetting the vitriol directed towards Bush throughout his entire Presidency. It was far more vicious, and more mainstream than anything Clinton has experienced.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think you are forgetting the vitriol directed towards Bush throughout his entire Presidency. It was far more vicious, and more mainstream than anything Clinton has experienced.

Such as....? Generally the worst people said of him was that he was dumb as #### or a war criminal. Not sure anyone ever claimed he was responsible for the murders of 50+ people (and not war, like Vince Foster type murders).

[photon]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I hope that's right... not sure how I got it so backwards in that case.

I think you are right in most cases, but I think Florida is one of the exceptions where last couple of elections Republicans dominated the early voting, if I recall correctly.

[photon]

Nevada's early voting results shaping up as being similar to 2012.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the...ly-voting-blog

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by troutman

I think I've heard these are very good signs for the Dems as the Reps were usually much further ahead in early voting in past elections.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politi...ly-voter-data/

Early voting trends differ by state. Republicans tend to dominate early voting in Florida, while, if I remember correctly, Democrats tend to lead in early voting in the west (Colorado, for instance). But you're totally right that Democrats seem to be well ahead of past elections... whether that suggests more Democrat voters overall or just a change in voting patterns is hard to say.

My concern is that it's simply a different voter activity caused by the fact that Trump's rhetoric is scaring Democrats about potential election day voter intimidation. If that's the case, it's not actually reflecting increased turnout, just the same block of people who would normally be voting on election day choosing to vote early.

[nik-]

Is this the time to liquidate the portfolio?

... just in case?

[photon]

Colorado is harder to say as their early voting rules changed after 2012 so can't compare to that, but Harry Enten (of 538 fame) says that in 2014 the GOP had a 7% edge in early voters, but Dems have a 3.6% edge currently.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...09133511843840

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think you are forgetting the vitriol directed towards Bush throughout his entire Presidency. It was far more vicious, and more mainstream than anything Clinton has experienced.

After he became president and the whole Iraq debacle, maybe. But he wasn't a constant target prior to his election in the way Clinton was. He was largely ignored beyond his home state until his presidential run.

[photon]

Should I be posting these early voting results to the polling thread instead?

Originally Posted by nik-

Is this the time to liquidate the portfolio?

... just in case?

Hah, Mark Cuban was on TV and said he's got an over 100% hedge (whatever that means) ready to go if the polls look like a Trump win closer to election day.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by nik-

Not even just baggage, someone just totally uninspiring besides the basic "first woman president" excitement. She's dull, she's an obvious political weather vane and there are the trust issues. She's campaigning against the biggest political disaster in recent memory and she doesn't have him buried 7 days out. Another centrist woman candidate is killing this race right now.

How much of her not having him buried is a function of Partisanship.

I think we have showed that 43% is the floor for any republican. So a 50/43/7 result is about a big of win as can happen in today's landscape. She was +7 a week ago projecting to win Arizona and making Georgia and Texas competitive. Her polling of a week ago is mopping the floor.

She obliterated him in the 3rd debate and it didn't move the needle. I'm not sure the democratic ceiling this year was higher than 50%.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

Is this the time to liquidate the portfolio?

... just in case?

Set it free, if it's yours to keep it will come back to you.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by octothorp

After he became president and the whole Iraq debacle, maybe. But he wasn't a constant target prior to his election in the way Clinton was. He was largely ignored beyond his home state until his presidential run.

In addition to that, W. was given quite a bit of leeway by the media and public after 9/11. The only thing I remember hearing about W. prior to the 2000 election was that he had a lot of money behind his campaign and as a result should be taken seriously as a candidate.

Was there any mention of his drunk driving, drug use or AWOL status during the debates or run up to the election? If there was, it was minimal compared to all of the ghosts (both real and imagined) being dug up by those trying to paint HRC as (sometimes literally) the anti-Christ.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Gozer

The FBI director isn't a smear merchant.
He is, according to Salon this morning, a 'career long preening partisan hack.'

This guy was held up as a pillar of integrity a week ago.

Considering he broke protocol and acted on his political identification without having the full details of the evidence, that makes him a smear merchant.

Get over it. Bernie lost.

[GirlySports]

For the Americans on here? How are you voting?

I hear it's much more difficult to vote in the states. Less polling stations, long lines etc.. some states vote only by mail now?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Set it free, if it's yours to keep it will come back to you.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

In addition to that, W. was given quite a bit of leeway by the media and public after 9/11. The only thing I remember hearing about W. prior to the 2000 election was that he had a lot of money behind his campaign and as a result should be taken seriously as a candidate.

Was there any mention of his drunk driving, drug use or AWOL status during the debates or run up to the election? If there was, it was minimal compared to all of the ghosts (both real and imagined) being dug up by those trying to paint HRC as (sometimes literally) the anti-Christ.

There was mention of the DUI 3 DAYS before the election. W was ahead 2 points in the pools before that and ended up losing the popular vote. So that was a November surprise!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

For the Americans on here? How are you voting?

I hear it's much more difficult to vote in the states. Less polling stations, long lines etc.. some states vote only by mail now?

Mail-in ballot. Already submitted and based on issues/policy positions rather than party identification.