The New American Politics thread

[OMG!WTF!]

What happens if Bernie can't possibly win at some point? Do they even bother with the other states? Who does Hillary smile and shake her head at during debates?

Also, why can't I go to bed without knowing who wins in Missouri? I don't freaking care but I can't turn the tv off.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ducay

In theory yes, he can un-suspend his campaign, but I imagine Rubio will hope/instruct his delegates to go for Kasich. You could end up where Kasich has ~700 combined delegates, Cruz maybe 900, and Trump over 1000, and it just turns into a bloodbath.

Problem is any scenario where Trump has 1,000 - 1,100 delegates and gets canned at the convention runs the risk of him running as a third party.

His argument, and its a good one, is that Trump is the people choice (at this point) given how many more votes he has than anyone else. Getting in shady delegate dealings can make a mess for the party.

The fascinating thing about a brokered convention is where the line is really drawn. Like I know you need 1237, but are they actually going to go against voters wishes if he has say 1100? How about 1050 or 1000? I don't have a clue where the line would be, but at some point you have to think that going against the results of the primaries just causes problems. Here they have elected a guy with a very clear plurality and the establishment just doesn't want him, but there's a risk in just doing whatever you want anyway, right?

[Caged Great]

Hillary sweeps the 5 states. Bernie is completely finished.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Slava

but at some point you have to think that going against the results of the primaries just causes problems.

But they wouldn't be. If he walks in with less then half of the delegates it means less then half actually want him as the nominee. I don't think those delegates have any obligation to support him.

And really... if Trump can't make a deal to get the delegates he needs after building his entire brand as some manner of business deal maker then does he really deserve the prize?

Dear Santa, please give me an American GOP brokered convention. I've been good.

[Mr.Coffee]

So it's likely we are headed to a presidential election for the most powerful country in the world with a borderline criminal vs. an egomaniac questionably racist reality tv show star who's platform consists of building a wall, introducing racist immigration laws and talking about the size of his genitals?

Read that, and think back a couple years if you thought this was possible.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Hillary sweeps the 5 states. Bernie is completely finished.

He was finished on Super-Tuesday (and pretty much finished after South Carolina). Good on him for running... I think he should stay in the race until he runs out of money if just to get the electoral machine well oiled for the General. Hillary should on the other hand start looking towards the general.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Looks like Drumpf will still be more or less right on pace after tonight

Not according to fivethirtyeight - he needed 719 delegates, he might not even hit 650.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Not according to fivethirtyeight - he needed 719 delegates, he might not even hit 650.

slow down now, where did you learn how to math? not hit 650? as soon as he won Florida that was pretty much a guarantee for tonight. If he won Ohio too the primary was over, fortunately Kasich kept that from happening.

674 of 1419 pledged delegates with 26 uncommited. 47.5% of pledged delegates, that's close enough i don't think he can be overthrown.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

[T@T]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Not according to fivethirtyeight - he needed 719 delegates, he might not even hit 650.

Yes he will. He has 640 now with Missouri still to count.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Still tough to see anyone stopping Trump even in a 3 man race. His base is clearly locked in at around 40%, which should be good enough in most of the remaining states. If Kasich really wants a brokered convention, he does need to disappear at least for a bit and let Cruz start winning states to up the pressure on Trump.

As to Bernie, he didn't even get a moral victory which is going to be his only case going forward, that he's winning states even if he's losing the math. Obviously if he can't even win states he should probably pack it in sooner than later to let the party fully shift to the general.

[Ducay]

Its fun to hate on the superdelegates and dismiss them, but factoring those in Hillary has double the delegates. His "revolution" peaked about a month ago and people are sobering back up to Hillary.

I hope he stays in solely for the Larry David skits on SNL.

In other news, both Dems & GOP are within the margin of error that allows for full recounts in Missouri. Democratic rules make it not really matter (moral victory aside, but even then it will be long off and would have little impact since Bernie needed that win in the papers today) but for GOP, its at least a 24 point swing ( +/- 12 to Trump/Cruz) at stake. Can't see Cruz not calling for a recount.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Slava

The fascinating thing about a brokered convention is where the line is really drawn. Like I know you need 1237, but are they actually going to go against voters wishes if he has say 1100? How about 1050 or 1000? I don't have a clue where the line would be, but at some point you have to think that going against the results of the primaries just causes problems. Here they have elected a guy with a very clear plurality and the establishment just doesn't want him, but there's a risk in just doing whatever you want anyway, right?

Yeah, it would be fascinating. Especially because it doesn't take a lot of dissenters to create absolute chaos. Maybe he goes into the convention with 1200, and just needs 37 to win outright. But he's counting on at least some fiercely, proudly independent unbound delegates from states like Wyoming, North Dakota and such, who aren't going to do what anyone, Trump or establishment tells them. And maybe a few other unbound establishment delegates say 'okay, I'm just going to sit the first round out and see what happens, I'll probably come around to Trump in the second round.' And then in the second round, 'okay, let's just vote for Trump and end this,' but a bunch more people say, 'hey, I did my duty and voted for Trump in the first round, nobody can make me keep voting for him.' Pretty soon it takes on a life of its own. Creating consensus becomes a bit like herding cats.

[Parallex]

In non-horse races US political news SCOTUS nom expected today... sources say it'll be Merrick Garland. 63 year old judge from Washington.

Seems pretty clear that Obama is nominating the guy that the republican senate will have to take a major gamble on rejecting (because he's both older/less liberal then most alternatives and because to reject such a obvious consensus type candidate, that has received senate confirmation in the past, will play into the narrative that the GOP controlled congress is overly obstructionist).

[troutman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merrick_Garland

Garland is considered a judicial moderate[24] and a centrist.[19] The New York Times said he "is often described as brilliant."[19]

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Parallex

In non-horse races US political news SCOTUS nom expected today... sources say it'll be Merrick Garland. 63 year old judge from Washington.

Seems pretty clear that Obama is nominating the guy that the republican senate will have to take a major gamble on rejecting (because he's both older/less liberal then most alternatives and because to reject such a obvious consensus type candidate, that has received senate confirmation in the past, will play into the narrative that the GOP controlled congress is overly obstructionist).

It will be interesting to see how the GOP responds. I almost feel bad for Garland because this seems like a terrible time and political environment to get nominated into.

[RougeUnderoos]

I wonder if he is sort of a sacrificial lamb. Put this guy, who is obviously qualified and is middle-of-the-road, and let the Republicans look bad by turning him down.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If Kasich really wants a brokered convention, he does need to disappear at least for a bit and let Cruz start winning states to up the pressure on Trump.

He should probably move his campaign to Wisconsin now. April is as good a month as Kasich can reasonably have with Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, & Rhode Island on the docket.

He doesn't have much money so he needs to pick his spots. Basically limit his campaign to competing where he has a legit shot of being the anti-trump and the few remaining proportional contests. Then use the breaks in-between to fundraise, get on the ground first in his next state, and score some endorsements to stay in the national news cycle.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I almost feel bad for Garland because this seems like a terrible time and political environment to get nominated into.

It's basically his last shot at the job since he's older then is norm for nominees and a "fresh" presidency will spend the political capital to get a liberal/conservative judge nominated rather then a centrist.

So don't feel to bad for him as it's basically now or never.

Really though the Republicans should just confirm him. Obama has just offered up a moderate, former prosecutor, old white guy with bipartisan appeal and a chance to dispel the narrative that they're obstructionist A-holes. That's a good deal. Doubly so when you can make a large wager that a Clinton nominee in year one will be both younger and more liberal and a *Shudder* Trump nominee would be who the heck knows.

[RougeUnderoos]

Mitch McConnell already saying no and saying "Obama made this nomination to politicize yada yada yada".

Goddamn they make things complicated down there.

[Looch City]

It doesn't matter if Obama resurrected Antonin Scalia and placed him back on the Supreme Court...he would still be in the wrong.