Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[TorqueDog]

Yeah, I suppose you're not wrong there. Last few times Trump has had tariffs on the brain, the market was completely unbothered by what he did.

I have no idea why Bitcoin went down so hard.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Shazam

How did insiders know that bitcoin was going to take a dump?

For the last few years Bitcoin has basically behaved like a slightly more volatile tech stock. With very few exceptions, if the Nasdaq is up, Bitcoin is up, and if the Nasdaq is down, then Bitcoin is down.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Shazam

How did insiders know that bitcoin was going to take a dump?

If you figure out how they knew, please feel free to tell me as well.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

For the last few years Bitcoin has basically behaved like a slightly more volatile tech stock. With very few exceptions, if the Nasdaq is up, Bitcoin is up, and if the Nasdaq is down, then Bitcoin is down.

I see it:

[bettercallbettman]

The rich get richer.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Shazam

I see it:

I'd hope so, given that BTC has averaged a ~70% correlation to the NASDAQ the last few years. Though obviously a linear total return chart is an awful way to judge correlation, as you can see from two things that have a near perfect correlation but different amounts of leverage:

[Shazam]

Sure, you going to bet $192 million on a 70% correlation?

Also are you agreeing with the poster then? That this was a sure bet because of inside information?

[chemgear]

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Sure, you going to bet $192 million on a 70% correlation?

Well the bet happened. So either they bet on it for factors that the market was already aware of, or they bet with inside information hoping that Bitcoin would move with the stock market as it usually does.

Which do you think is a more sound strategy? You can't say the idea of betting on something with a 70% correlation is outlandish and risky if the alternative is betting the same amount on the same thing, but without the benefit of inside information.

Also are you agreeing with the poster then? That this was a sure bet because of inside information?

Sure bet? No, I wouldn't say that. And who knows if this investor had inside information.

But if I did have inside information about a significant tariff announcement and I wanted to profit off it, an unregulated, anonymous market that is heavily correlated with the NASDAQ would be a lot smarter way to do it than through traditional investments.

And it doesn't take a genius to predict that the market would react negatively to Trump's announcement. Look what happened in April with the "Liberation Day" stuff. Bitcoin dropped almost 15% over a 2-3 day period before rebounding.