2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's not like the Avs were terrible that whole time. They usually made the playoffs and even had a couple of division titles and playoff round victories over that period. I think any fanbase can be patient with results like that.

In order to win a team needs a series of things to go their way.

Ultimately in the cap era it’s about having players on maximum value contracts. Either entry level, back diving, cap circumventing, or extreme value deals have been needed to win for most team. Off of the top of my head, Boston & Anaheim are the only two who weren’t overly reliant on several of these.

Both Colorado & Tampa have been build over time with punctuated periods of sucking.

Tampa started one year earlier in 2008 with Stamkos, but Colorado went straight from Sakic to Duchene (#2 OA). Two years later with Landeskog (#2 OA) then another two years later with Mackinnon (#1 OA).

Roy’s biggest asset to the franchise’s latest championship was insisting they choose Mackinnon & not Jones in 2013.

Two years after Mackinnon they select Rantanen (#10 OA), Makar 2 years later, and Byron two years after that.

Even with the punctuated sucking they needed Mackinnon’s Uber value deal, and the Melynk/Dorian Clown show to recycle Duchene into Byron & Girard, and the acumen/luck in drafting. Even their questionable high pick in Jost was turned into Sturm to help them win.

They made savy deals for other parts like Kadri, looking for value deals, but without the core drafted pieces these deals keep them competitive.

Tampa also had their punctuated period of suck, and managed assets to maximize returns, like Drouin for Sergechev with similar acumen/luck in drafting in later rounds.

Are the Avs & Lightning better at drafting? Well yeah, but it’s not that simple either. They’re also better at development, and most other teams are terrible at drafting and/or development.

“The general point of view seems to be to hope that they are not unlucky in the first round and hope to be lucky in the later rounds,” says Tingling, who has previously studied teams’ spending on innovation and scouting success.

The pair examined the quality of the decisions made by NHL teams during the 1995-2003 entry drafts, and after determining measurements of draft errors, found that player selection “may be influenced by widespread and systematic decision biases.”

“The general advice that we give is to keep track of which scouts have historically made good recommendations (which surprisingly few organizations do), continue to make individual assessments, and to look deeper in the draft,” says Tingling. “Our research shows that even teams that pick late can have a great draft.”

https://beedie.sfu.ca/ideas/2013/08/...ockey-players/

“Our research says nobody is particularly good at making (draft) decisions,” he said. “There’s this myth of Detroit as a great late-round chooser. They do a great job (scouting) in Europe, not so good in North America. But what Detroit is absolutely tremendous at is retaining and developing players. At some point, drafting well is useless if you can’t develop and retain (the players), as many teams know.”

“What teams are really good? The short answer is no team is consistently good. Central Scouting does an amazing job of identifying the first 60, 70 players, maybe 100. After that, it basically flatlines.”

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Boreal

In order to win a team needs a series of things to go their way.

Ultimately in the cap era it’s about having players on maximum value contracts. Either entry level, back diving, cap circumventing, or extreme value deals have been needed to win for most team. Off of the top of my head, Boston & Anaheim are the only two who weren’t overly reliant on several of these.

Both Colorado & Tampa have been build over time with punctuated periods of sucking.

Tampa started one year earlier in 2008 with Stamkos, but Colorado went straight from Sakic to Duchene (#2 OA). Two years later with Landeskog (#2 OA) then another two years later with Mackinnon (#1 OA).

Roy’s biggest asset to the franchise’s latest championship was insisting they choose Mackinnon & not Jones in 2013.

Two years after Mackinnon they select Rantanen (#10 OA), Makar 2 years later, and Byron two years after that.

Even with the punctuated sucking they needed Mackinnon’s Uber value deal, and the Melynk/Dorian Clown show to recycle Duchene into Byron & Girard, and the acumen/luck in drafting. Even their questionable high pick in Jost was turned into Sturm to help them win.

They made savy deals for other parts like Kadri, looking for value deals, but without the core drafted pieces these deals keep them competitive.

Tampa also had their punctuated period of suck, and managed assets to maximize returns, like Drouin for Sergechev with similar acumen/luck in drafting in later rounds.

Are the Avs & Lightning better at drafting? Well yeah, but it’s not that simple either. They’re also better at development, and most other teams are terrible at drafting and/or development.



https://beedie.sfu.ca/ideas/2013/08/...ockey-players/

Excellent post, I think you got everything spot on.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Boreal

In order to win a team needs a series of things to go their way.

Ultimately in the cap era it’s about having players on maximum value contracts. Either entry level, back diving, cap circumventing, or extreme value deals have been needed to win for most team. Off of the top of my head, Boston & Anaheim are the only two who weren’t overly reliant on several of these.

Both Colorado & Tampa have been build over time with punctuated periods of sucking.

Tampa started one year earlier in 2008 with Stamkos, but Colorado went straight from Sakic to Duchene (#2 OA). Two years later with Landeskog (#2 OA) then another two years later with Mackinnon (#1 OA).

Roy’s biggest asset to the franchise’s latest championship was insisting they choose Mackinnon & not Jones in 2013.

Two years after Mackinnon they select Rantanen (#10 OA), Makar 2 years later, and Byron two years after that.

Even with the punctuated sucking they needed Mackinnon’s Uber value deal, and the Melynk/Dorian Clown show to recycle Duchene into Byron & Girard, and the acumen/luck in drafting. Even their questionable high pick in Jost was turned into Sturm to help them win.

They made savy deals for other parts like Kadri, looking for value deals, but without the core drafted pieces these deals keep them competitive.

Tampa also had their punctuated period of suck, and managed assets to maximize returns, like Drouin for Sergechev with similar acumen/luck in drafting in later rounds.

Are the Avs & Lightning better at drafting? Well yeah, but it’s not that simple either. They’re also better at development, and most other teams are terrible at drafting and/or development.



https://beedie.sfu.ca/ideas/2013/08/...ockey-players/

I think Boston had Bergeron and Marchaud agree to below market deals.

Great post though.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Boreal

Are the Avs & Lightning better at drafting? Well yeah, but it’s not that simple either. They’re also better at development, and most other teams are terrible at drafting and/or development.

List of non-first rounds picks that have established themselves as NHL regular players for the Avalanche since 2011:

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Boreal

Are the Avs & Lightning better at drafting? Well yeah, but it’s not that simple either. They’re also better at development, and most other teams are terrible at drafting and/or development.

I don't agree with this.

I think the Flames have done just as good a job at drafting as both Tampa and Colorado - and the only real difference is that Colorado and Tampa both have at least two foundational players that were selected at the top of the draft.

Tampa has Hedman and Stamkos while Colorado has MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar and you just can't overcome that. It's amazing work to find Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, and Gaudreau where we found them - but we need those diamonds in the rough to build upon the foundational picks that we just have not made. We just can't overcome the lack of those foundational picks. We need a couple of players selected (in the right year) in those 1-4 spots. It's just required.

[OptimalTates]

The rumoured 2013 draft deal of all of the Flames 2013 draft picks for the 1st overall being declined is all I really need to know. It's not that Colorado did something special with their draft picks, they just lost and won the right lotteries (or lost the right lotteries in the case of Makar).

When their best non-first round pick in the last decade so far has arguably been Will Butcher, the same Butcher that the Sabres picked up as a salary dump, it's not like they are some great drafting gurus. Newhook (16th overall) is the only player picked outside of the top 10 to establish themselves as a bonafide NHL skater since O'Reilly in 2009.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

The rumoured 2013 draft deal of all of the Flames 2013 draft picks for the 1st overall being declined is all I really need to know. It's not that Colorado did something special with their draft picks, they just lost and won the right lotteries (or lost the right lotteries in the case of Makar).

When their best non-first round pick in the last decade so far has arguably been Will Butcher, the same Butcher that the Sabres picked up as a salary dump, it's not like they are some great drafting gurus. Newhook (16th overall) is the only player picked outside of the top 10 to establish themselves as a bonafide NHL skater since O'Reilly in 2009.

Yeah, I'd say Sakic has been absolutely awesome in the trade and in the free agent market - but the drafting has been a bit "bleh", but it just goes to show what "cheat" it is to have those top-4 picks. You need them, and you need them in the correct seasons. Having them in dud years (like Edmonton did until McDavid and Draisaitl) can be painful (although I think outside of Yakupov, Edmonton's secret development sauce is what limited RNH and Hall).

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don't agree with this.

I think the Flames have done just as good a job at drafting as both Tampa and Colorado - and the only real difference is that Colorado and Tampa both have at least two foundational players that were selected at the top of the draft.

Tampa has Hedman and Stamkos while Colorado has MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar and you just can't overcome that. It's amazing work to find Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, and Gaudreau where we found them - but we need those diamonds in the rough to build upon the foundational picks that we just have not made. We just can't overcome the lack of those foundational picks. We need a couple of players selected (in the right year) in those 1-4 spots. It's just required.

Maybe the Avalanche, but not the Lightning.

Calgary selected Tyler Wotherspoon ahead of Nikita Kucherov & Hunter Smith & Brandon Hickey ahead of Brayden Point.

But there is as much luck involved as anything.

The only question is if the Flames adequately track which scouts are responsible for which pick. If the Flames had scouts with a proven track record vouch for Kucherov & Point to be higher than Wotherspoon & Smith and were overruled then Tampa 1000% did better.

This was the Feaster/Burke drafts so I agree the Flame drafting has significantly improved since. I would think Treliving has started to record scouts track record.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Boreal

Maybe the Avalanche, but not the Lightning.

Calgary selected Tyler Wotherspoon ahead of Nikita Kucherov & Hunter Smith & Brandon Hickey ahead of Brayden Point.

And Tampa drafted Jonathan MacLeod and Dominik Masin ahead of Point.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don't agree with this.

I think the Flames have done just as good a job at drafting as both Tampa and Colorado - and the only real difference is that Colorado and Tampa both have at least two foundational players that were selected at the top of the draft.

Tampa has Hedman and Stamkos while Colorado has MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar and you just can't overcome that. It's amazing work to find Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, and Gaudreau where we found them - but we need those diamonds in the rough to build upon the foundational picks that we just have not made. We just can't overcome the lack of those foundational picks. We need a couple of players selected (in the right year) in those 1-4 spots. It's just required.

Stamkos was no where near as important to their cup wins as Point, Kucherov or Vasilesky. Landeskog would be the 4th best forward on the Flames.

Colorado has their 2 foundational players but also absolutely fleeced teams on 3 separate trades plus they made some good deadline moves this season.

Tampa has been a solid team at trading and have Cirelli, Palat, in addition to the 3 non top picks listed above. I don’t mean to completely discount those top picks because they are key but you haven’t sold me on this ranking fixation you have.

I truly think the Flames have a better chance of becoming Buffalo/Edmonton than they do Tampa/Colorado. It has been 15 years since the Oilers decided to rebuild and 7 years after lucking into the best player of a generation to win 8 playoff games. Buffalo tried to tank for Connor as well and are still messed up 7 years later.

Calgary was a top team in the league in the last 2 full seasons. They have a HOF coach who is here for one last ride. If they can’t move forward they need to seriously consider starting over but I am glad they had more patience than many fans like yourself didn’t have last year when you were quick to say Calgary doesn’t have elite talent yet they have 2 top 10 scorers, the 2nd best defensive forward of last year and the 2nd best goalie. This team took a step this year so I hope they continue to try and move forward.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, I'd say Sakic has been absolutely awesome in the trade and in the free agent market - but the drafting has been a bit "bleh", but it just goes to show what "cheat" it is to have those top-4 picks. You need them, and you need them in the correct seasons. Having them in dud years (like Edmonton did until McDavid and Draisaitl) can be painful (although I think outside of Yakupov, Edmonton's secret development sauce is what limited RNH and Hall).

This is true, although the Yakupov pick itself demonstrates why you can’t wiff on a top 5 pick. A top 5 pick is like inheriting family wealth, it’s hard to screw up, but it can happen.

Would Morgan Reilly help the Oilers?

Yeah, but it’s also a moot point. It’s Oiler navel gazing false equivalency asset management.

IF the Oilers drafted Reilly they would have both botched his development, overpaid him, or both.

It’s like the rumoured Comrie for Corey Perry & a 1st trade in the fall of 2003.

If that had happened Corey Perry would have been linemates with Rob Schremp in Europe after the Oilers developed his talent instead of winning a Cup & a Hart trophy with the Ducks.

[Samonadreau]

Tampa really did well on picking up guys like Kucherov, Point, Palat, Cirelli, Killorn and Gourde. Those were all players taken in the 3rd round or later. Finding those diamonds in the rough. That all at forward poistion too.

Building around the stud first rounders like Stamkos, Hedman and Vasy.

Then taking advantage of a desperate Canadiens team picking up Sergachev.

Edit Kucherov was a late 2nd.

[Knut]

Tampa also has a really good Minor league system that graduates depth guys that can play on the cheap.

Flames need to stop having 12 M 4th lines and 8 M 3rd pair. Need to graduate younger players to fill those roles. Especially if Johnny and Chucky are taking up 21 M in cap space.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

We just can't overcome the lack of those foundational picks. We need a couple of players selected (in the right year) in those 1-4 spots. It's just required.

Except that Calgary had the chance with those two foundational picks with Monahan at 6 and Bennett at 4. The reason that Calgary has/is/will struggle is because of the lack of high end depth up the middle and they had the chance to fix that.

Drafted the players where they should have been picked.
Dropped the ball on player development (injuries, skating, two way play are all part of player development).

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by shutout

Except that Calgary had the chance with those two foundational picks with Monahan at 6 and Bennett at 4.

Neither, even combined, have ever been at a MacKinnon or Stamkos level of player.

[Icon]

Originally Posted by shutout

Except that Calgary had the chance with those two foundational picks with Monahan at 6 and Bennett at 4.

And had Fox been willing to sign that would've obviously helped.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

It's amazing work to find Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, and Gaudreau where we found them - but we need those diamonds in the rough to build upon the foundational picks that we just have not made.

Hopefully Kerins and Wolf join that group soon.

The Flames have been good finding decent players outside of the 1st round in recent years, but you are right that being able to draft a superstar in the top 3 is something that can't be understated. It can make up for a lot of other mistakes and allows teams to take bigger risks that have higher rewards, while not hurting things if it doesn't work out.

One thing I will say, and I think the Flames have been doing this more lately, is that draft picks should almost always be used on high reward prospects even if there is considerable risk. It's how we got Gaudreau or how Tampa got Kucherov. Average players are pretty easy to get via other means, so I think you need to shoot for the stars with every pick. If you can get just one really good player in any draft, that is good enough and the rest can be wasted.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by shutout

Except that Calgary had the chance with those two foundational picks with Monahan at 6 and Bennett at 4. The reason that Calgary has/is/will struggle is because of the lack of high end depth up the middle and they had the chance to fix that.

Drafted the players where they should have been picked.
Dropped the ball on player development (injuries, skating, two way play are all part of player development).

6 is not high enough to be one of those foundational picks.

4 is BARELY high enough (Pietrangelo being the only Stanley Cup champion on a team where he was the highest picked player). Bennett was a mix of mismanagement and poor luck in that draft year.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

Wouldn't the ideal time be now, then? We have an extremely valuable asset in Chucky that is moveable. Surely there must be a team that wants him that has a young C that can slot into the #2 role behind Lindholm.

Anyone still drooling over Dylan Cozens?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The Toews trade actually makes me pretty angry, considering what Treliving paid for Hamonic while dealing with a ####tier GM.

That trade was driven by SEA ED. The Flames acquire Hamonic a few days after the VGK draft.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If you think it was logical to blow it up last year then find a new sport to watch or team to cheer for. Who blows up a team with core players in their mid-20’s with a freshly signed top goalie and hall of fame coach? Good thing they didn’t overreact to a weird Covid season and sell low on Johnny and Chucky.

The Flames currently have one of the best lines in hockey, a solid goalie, a great coach, and good depth. I hope they can keep Johnny and Chucky because I think they are better than a team that wins a round. Rebuilding could put this team on the path to being Buffalo or Edmonton from 2007-2019. This is the last time Sutter coaches so they should build a winner.

How about we be patient with the team that has 3 of their top 4 D 25, their 27 year old number 1 C, 24 year old top line winger and see if they can build off last year and take a step. They need their franchise player to stay like he has mentioned he wants to do.

Didn't have to be a blowup, but maybe a step back for 2 forward.

Presently the Flames have 1/3 of that line under contract for two more years. The coach for one more year. The goalie is good, but not getting any better and now there are question marks about how he handles a key divisional opponent.

Tanev, Hanifin, and Backlund are only contracted for 2 more years, too.

3/5 most important forwards all need raises this year (one being a UFA). Those other 2 important forwards are UFAs in two years (one hitting his age curve, anyways).

1/3 most important D-men is locked up, the other 2 are UFAs in two years.