Quote:
Originally Posted by dying4acup
Question: (and maybe this belongs in the Oliver thread) Does OK have (prime) Erik Karlssen upside? This is the comparison I had when OK was a top-5 prospect in his draft year.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Karlsson put up 78 points as a 21 YO.
What are the chances that Kylington has a single 78 season? I would say pretty low, but would it ever be awesome if he proves me wrong!
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So I don't know about upside, but this conversation did make me go digging
First, Karlsson had 28 PP points that year. So that would be one significant question mark about point production - will he someday run a team's first PP unit? And not just run it, but run it in more of a playmaking capacity than most defensemen these days run their 4F 1D powerplay.
Second, Karlsson averaged 19:32 of 5v5 icetime and produced 1.74 points per 60 minutes over 81 games that year. He had a point on 56.79% of all goals scored while he's on the ice.
Of his 1582:37 total logged 5v5 icetime:
570:10 was spent trailing (1.68 P/60)
603:12 was spent tied (2.09 P/60)
409:15 was spent with a lead (1.32 P/60)
The breakdown of his points rate was:
0.61 goals/60
0.61 primary assists/60
0.53 secondary assists/60
He led his team's blueline with 15.13 shot attempts per sixty minutes, of which 9.4 (~62%) were unblocked and 7.05 (~47%) were actually shots on net. To say he had a unique greenlight to shoot would be an understatement. Anyways, 0.61 goals on 9.4 unblocked shot attempts puts him at a 6.5% scoring rate.
When Karlsson was on the ice, the senators generated 65.36 shot attempts per sixty. Subtracting his own 15.13 attempts, that's 50.23 teammate shot attempts/60 of which he was responsible for 1.14 assists per sixty.
So, just looking at all those elements of Kylington's current season, small sample size as it may be:
Kylington has averaged 15:49 of 5v5 icetime and produced 2.19 points per 60 minutes over 19 games this year. He has a point on 73.33% of all goals scored while he's on the ice.
Of his 300:43 total logged 5v5 icetime:
26:48 has been spent trailing (2.24 P/60)
122:22 has been spent tied (2.45 P/60)
151:33 has been spent with a lead (1.98 P/60)
The breakdown of his points rate is:
0.60 goals/60
0.40 primary assists/60
1.20 secondary assists/60
He is in the mix among his team's blueliners with 11.37 shot attempts per sixty minutes, of which 7.58 (~67%) are unblocked and 5.39 (~47%) actually shots on net. 0.60 goals on 7.58 unblocked shot attempts puts him at a 7.9% scoring rate.
When Kylington is on the ice, the Flames generate 60.85 shot attempts per sixty. Subtracting his own 11.37 attempts, that's 49.48 teammate shot attempts/60 of which he was responsible for 1.60 assists per sixty.
So the first thing that stands out, is that Kylington's production is probably overperforming right now in the sense that he has a point on more of the goals the Flames score than Karlsson had on the Sens' goals, and also the fact that a higher percentage of his shots are finding the back of the net in this small sample. I'd expect him to regress backwards in these areas.
Now for the more sustainable stuff. Overall, even if his icetime increased and there were no hit to his stamina, I think Kylington would need to start shooting a significant amount more before you could compare him to Erik Karlsson. EK had an almost 25% higher unblocked shot attempts rate. Right now, even Noah Hanifin shoots more than Kylington.
My takeaway is that I have no takeaway and I just wanted to look at numbers.
EDIT: This was Part 1. Now I'm doing Part 2
