The New American Politics thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I don't think it's over for Sanders yet. He did well enough out of super Tuesday to keep going in a long primary and he won important states yesterday.

He won the smaller states.

I mean let's compare the states he won vs. the 4 largest states Clinton won...

Sanders: CO (66), Minn (77), OK (38) VT (16)
Clinton: GA (102), TX (222). VA (95), MA (95)

... brackets is the delegate total for the state. Even if you want to consider MA a draw (close enough really) then Clinton's fifth most win was TN (67). The delegate math is not kind to Sanders at this point. The proportionality of the Democrats system ensures that he can stay in for a while if he wants (and I think he should... if nothing else it get's organizers active on the ground as a dry run towards the general) but I think it is highly unlikely to result in victory.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think there are many voters that will say they are voting for Trump but won't in private, Trump is essentially a joke candidate, he's the Flying Spaghetti Monster party for yanks. He has no policies, I think there's a difference between sticking it to the party and actually wanting him in charge.

People vote for him like people voted for John Scott in the All-Star game. This joke isn't funny anymore.

[Coach]

So we've heard from some Delegates and some Super Delegates. But what do the Ludicrous Delegates think?

[Fuzz]

They've all gone Trump, silly.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Parallex

He won the smaller states.

I mean let's compare the states he won vs. the 4 largest states Clinton won...

Sanders: CO (66), Minn (77), OK (38) VT (16)
Clinton: GA (102), TX (222). VA (95), MA (95)

... brackets is the delegate total for the state. Even if you want to consider MA a draw (close enough really) then Clinton's fifth most win was TN (67). The delegate math is not kind to Sanders at this point. The proportionality of the Democrats system ensures that he can stay in for a while if he wants (and I think he should... if nothing else it get's organizers active on the ground as a dry run towards the general) but I think it is highly unlikely to result in victory.

Let's see how Sanders does in the big NE and Mid-West states. Clinton's biggest wins have come in the South.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by troutman

Let's see how Sanders does in the big NE and Mid-West states. Clinton's biggest wins have come in the South.

The point is it doesn't matter because there's no winner take all. Even if he beats Hillary 55-45 in every single state, that's probably not even close to enough to make up the difference. For every 20 delegates Bernie gets 11 and she gets 9. Seeings as with Super Delegates he's down almost 600 delegates, he needs to run up huge wins, which given the demographic breakdowns so far seems very unlikely. Unfortunately for Bernie he's flopped with minorities and really his party is nowhere near as angry at the establishment as the GOP is. Bad recipe for him.

[GGG]

There's also some fantastic work done at 538 which looks at the demographics of the upcoming states and projects what the results should be if Sanders had 50% popularity of all Americans. A level he would need to get the nomination. So far he has been underperforming in all states.

Trump's a little more interesting as his support seems to be capped at less than 50%. So he needs to keep Rubio and Cruz in the race until after the March 15th winner take all primaries.

Also if Cruz and Rubio are willing to go to the convention floor and trump is still sub 40 you could have a brokered convention without destroying the party as Trump wouldn't have a clear mandate from Voters if the numbers are something like 40%, 30%, 25%, 5%. It really comes down to how much do the republican establishment want to risk to stop Trump and can they stomach Cruz being the nominee.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by troutman

Let's see how Sanders does in the big NE and Mid-West states. Clinton's biggest wins have come in the South.

She should do well.

Last I saw she had a 20 point lead in Michigan, a 20-30 point lead in Illinois, Polling in Ohio is all over the map but most show a Big Clinton Lead, NY is her home state. Out of those regions down in Florida... same story. Go all the way out to California which is late but has the most delegates while we have little in the way of polling I think we can infer from Sanders lack of support among hispanics and African-Americans that he'd do poorly.

Clinton's 2016 looks a lot like Obama's 2008.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Seeings as with Super Delegates he's down almost 600 delegates, he needs to run up huge wins, which given the demographic breakdowns so far seems very unlikely.

Those superdelegate endorsements don't really mean much. Most if not all of them will eventually just go with the more popular candidate. They will only matter if it's really close.

So really the 200 delegate gap that's the result of actual votes is more relevant.

I will be surprised if Sanders can cover that gap, but I won't be totally shocked either.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Itse

Those superdelegate endorsements don't really mean much. Most if not all of them will eventually just go with the more popular candidate. They will only matter if it's really close.

So really the 200 delegate gap that's the result of actual votes is more relevant.

I will be surprised if Sanders can cover that gap, but I won't be totally shocked either.

Superdelegates won't vote against popular unless they want another 70s DNC revolt. Basically it comes down to the margin Sanders potentially loses/wins by. He's got to outperform in the remaining non-southern states.

Clinton is being formally investigated by several different government agencies. If an indictment comes from a DOJ/FBI investigation you could see support drop in the remaining states pretty fast or hand Drumpf the presidency. That's a big if though.

[HotHotHeat]

This Trump thing is just awesome. The GOP seems willing to break up their party just to stop him.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

This Trump thing is just awesome. The GOP seems willing to break up their party just to stop him.

They could care less about his politics, their polling tells them he will lose them both the White House and the senate.

[bigtmac19]

Google reporting a large number of searches of "how to move to Canada" after Super Tuesday. Majority of searches coming from Massachusetts.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Trump seems to be doing this now just to spite the GOP. If they somehow dump him at the convention how would he not just run as an independent and destroy any chance Cruz or Rubio has at the white house?

[Fuzz]

That previous scary thought post inspired me to get mildly creative....

[2Stonedbirds]

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Itse

Those superdelegate endorsements don't really mean much. Most if not all of them will eventually just go with the more popular candidate. They will only matter if it's really close.

So really the 200 delegate gap that's the result of actual votes is more relevant.

I will be surprised if Sanders can cover that gap, but I won't be totally shocked either.

Yeah but as long as Hillary has even 1 more pledged delegate than Bernie, she'll get the vast majority of superdelegates. As it is Bernis is down big in the next 5 states according to polls:

Down 15-20% in Michigan
Down 40-50% in Mississippi
Down 25-30% in Florida
Down 15-20% in Ohio
Down 10-15% in North Carolina

If all those hold on election day, he really not only has no path, he has no case to continue if he really wants to beat Trump, as he's said. He can't just keep waiting for the smaller, mostly whiter states to give him (pun intended) token wins.

[Dan02]

Unless something drastic happens soon its trump vs Hillary. Trump is set to grab a big lead in delegates over the next 2 weeks.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah but as long as Hillary has even 1 more pledged delegate than Bernie, she'll get the vast majority of superdelegates. As it is Bernis is down big in the next 5 states according to polls:

Down 15-20% in Michigan
Down 40-50% in Mississippi
Down 25-30% in Florida
Down 15-20% in Ohio
Down 10-15% in North Carolina

If all those hold on election day, he really not only has no path, he has no case to continue if he really wants to beat Trump, as he's said. He can't just keep waiting for the smaller, mostly whiter states to give him (pun intended) token wins.

Yeah, Clinton will win anything resembling a tie. That's one of the reasons why I don't think Sanders has much of a chance.

But I do think he has a chance. If he can find something that really appeals to the minorities, that would be a huge help for his campaign.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That previous scary thought post inspired me to get mildly creative....

You did that?... I'm stealing it and tweeting it.