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Old 03-15-2022, 08:52 PM   #3981
GordonBlue
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As I had predicted, the address today by Ukraine's President, although historic, emotional and powerful just echo's the already big gap on what Ukraine is pleading for and what Canada is willing to offer.

I have zero issue with Zelensky advocating for his nation and doing what is Ukraine's interests for survival, for democracy and for what is right and for it's people.

I do think we have an issue with a lot of ribbons, offers of support, "we stand with Ukraine" talk and some weapons and military equipment.

Knowing full well what he was going to ask, and that Canada can not and will not offer, at least have something of high importance being offered back in return for pleas.

Canada sanctioning some more elite Russians is fine and dandy but that isn't addressing the concern on the ground, evidence by the fact that everybody who's on the ground is saying that sanctions aren't going to stop the bombings, the critical element here.

I was always concerned that this was a little more for show than anything designed to meaningful impact things on the ground and now.

If Canada won't and can't provide what we know is being requested, we better figure out what we will provide that will alter the course of history. Applause, job well done from Canadas MP's, offers of support, wearing ribbons and standing together with Ukraine won't cut it. When your invited to address Parliament and are asked for more than what you already have offered, the onus is on us to do more. We extended the invite and the offer.
Ok after that rant, what would you suggest that Canada could do, that they haven't already? Not what you want them to do, but what they could realistically do to as you say have "meaningful impact on the ground"

I'd argue that there is little nothing Canada can do without declaring war on Russia and sending the military to Ukraine, which would be stupid to do.
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Old 03-15-2022, 08:57 PM   #3982
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1503927379240099842
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Old 03-15-2022, 09:04 PM   #3983
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Good. But damn, that's crazy. 4 Generals?

When was the last time a modern military lost ANY Generals in combat?

Ukraine is playing elite-level Stratego.
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Old 03-15-2022, 09:16 PM   #3984
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From how I understood it, if they declare a no fly zone, then NATO would actively be engaging anything in the air over Ukraine. Which means a direct NATO attack on Russians.

That would lead down a path there is no coming back from I think.

Is there precedent during the cold war?
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More then that is that a nofly zone would use bases in NATO countries which invites strikes against them by Russia, that would certainly escalate things in a hurry.
Cliff Fletcher posted a link to an article that delves into the principles of engagement on page 196 of this thread.
Enlightening reading, and the takeaway is don't expect any no-fly zone under current conditions.
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Old 03-15-2022, 09:30 PM   #3985
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There's a picture of the major general dead body with his credentials a little further down the tweet chain, killed by Azov. A lot more pictures from their side of this attack. The city may be surrounded but Russians are taking some pretty heavy casualties.

Hopefully this will cause extra chaos within Russia Mariupol ranks
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Old 03-15-2022, 09:43 PM   #3986
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There's a picture of the major general dead body with his credentials a little further down the tweet chain, killed by Azov. A lot more pictures from their side of this attack. The city may be surrounded but Russians are taking some pretty heavy casualties.

Hopefully this will cause extra chaos within Russia Mariupol ranks
The post of the Russian tank shooting what looks like a civilian is downright disgusting. I won't post it because I think it could be distressing for a lot of people. Just so cowardly and another clear war crime.
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Old 03-15-2022, 09:47 PM   #3987
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Too flippant?

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Old 03-15-2022, 10:58 PM   #3988
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Ok after that rant, what would you suggest that Canada could do, that they haven't already? Not what you want them to do, but what they could realistically do to as you say have "meaningful impact on the ground"

I'd argue that there is little nothing Canada can do without declaring war on Russia and sending the military to Ukraine, which would be stupid to do.

Initially I said something along the lines of I hope Zelensky doesn't let some of this international media attention get to him, in my personal opinion addressing the Canadian Parliament made very little overall sense given what was probably going to be asked. Canada isn't a decision maker or some military leader on the world stage. I was ostracized. Zelensky addressing the EU and the US Congress makes sense this they are the power players here.

Fast forward to Canada inviting him to speak to Canada's MP and what we got was Zelensky saying what we all knew he was going to say. Thanks for your help, I appreciate the love and the support. Thanks for the well wishes, the ribbons, the thoughts and the prayers but I NEED MORE. I NEED this..........

If you invite me to your house for dinner and I tell you I need to eat, I am a hungry guy, Im starving actually, I haven't eaten steak in ages and I am craving it. I need you to come through big time. If I come to your house and you have a nice salad, sliced carrots and some water, thanks for the invite, but really what was the point?

Maybe I am a bit jaded, maybe I don't get some of the backroom politics. Maybe when Zelensky says I don't need more sanctions, I need this and that and then Canadian leaders tell us they are sanctioning Russian Elites again today, I don't get the message.
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Old 03-15-2022, 11:01 PM   #3989
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Zelensky is just doing his job, urging help from wherever.

But this is Canada. We dont even help ourselves, the best we were ever going to do for Ukraine was 'thoughts and prayers' and some materiel.
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Old 03-15-2022, 11:19 PM   #3990
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Good. But damn, that's crazy. 4 Generals?

When was the last time a modern military lost ANY Generals in combat?

Ukraine is playing elite-level Stratego.
Hopefully, Ramzan Kadyrov joins the list soon.
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Old 03-16-2022, 12:05 AM   #3991
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I think the Ukraine needs to be careful, they might be better off leaving these numpties in charge, it's not like they seem able to organise a piss up in a brewery after all
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Old 03-16-2022, 12:29 AM   #3992
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I've been watching this ex-US army Youtuber lately, he does a good job of organizing balanced information from an infantryman's experience and he clearly explains many of the situational issues in Ukraine. Interesting that the Russians are constructing a field pipeline to directly fuel their front lines.

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Old 03-16-2022, 02:49 AM   #3993
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Originally Posted by curves2000 View Post
Initially I said something along the lines of I hope Zelensky doesn't let some of this international media attention get to him, in my personal opinion addressing the Canadian Parliament made very little overall sense given what was probably going to be asked. Canada isn't a decision maker or some military leader on the world stage. I was ostracized. Zelensky addressing the EU and the US Congress makes sense this they are the power players here.

Fast forward to Canada inviting him to speak to Canada's MP and what we got was Zelensky saying what we all knew he was going to say. Thanks for your help, I appreciate the love and the support. Thanks for the well wishes, the ribbons, the thoughts and the prayers but I NEED MORE. I NEED this..........

If you invite me to your house for dinner and I tell you I need to eat, I am a hungry guy, Im starving actually, I haven't eaten steak in ages and I am craving it. I need you to come through big time. If I come to your house and you have a nice salad, sliced carrots and some water, thanks for the invite, but really what was the point?

Maybe I am a bit jaded, maybe I don't get some of the backroom politics. Maybe when Zelensky says I don't need more sanctions, I need this and that and then Canadian leaders tell us they are sanctioning Russian Elites again today, I don't get the message.
I sort of understand where you're coming from: Ukraine has done well to reach out for aid and gain support from far and wide in the world community. But, despite their successes both there and on the battlefield, it seems likely that we will see the wholesale destruction of their country and tens of thousands - if not more - of deaths. The kind of immediate help that would stop that from occurring is just not possible under nuclear deterrence.

It continues to terrify me that Western nations might be driven to act by an increasingly horrible situation on the ground coupled with widespread calls from the Western public to intervene militarily in some fashion. It just can't happen.
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Old 03-16-2022, 03:46 AM   #3994
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I sort of understand where you're coming from: Ukraine has done well to reach out for aid and gain support from far and wide in the world community. But, despite their successes both there and on the battlefield, it seems likely that we will see the wholesale destruction of their country and tens of thousands - if not more - of deaths. The kind of immediate help that would stop that from occurring is just not possible under nuclear deterrence.

It continues to terrify me that Western nations might be driven to act by an increasingly horrible situation on the ground coupled with widespread calls from the Western public to intervene militarily in some fashion. It just can't happen.
What you call nuclear deterrence is actually nuclear blackmail, Putin and future people like him won't stop if he gets away with this crap, if his own people wont stop him then his bluff must be called.
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Old 03-16-2022, 05:05 AM   #3995
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Zelensky is just doing his job, urging help from wherever.

But this is Canada. We dont even help ourselves, the best we were ever going to do for Ukraine was 'thoughts and prayers' and some materiel.
That is the sad brutal truth. Canadians will wear pins, turn on blue and yellow lights, play the UA anthem before our hockey games, and buy more pierogis. But as for actually physically helping actual Ukrainians on the ground? Not a JT hater, but I LOL every time Trudeau speaks about stepping up to help in this crises.

For me the big test to see how Canada offers aid will be the new Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel. I am keeping an eye on this, as my wife's cousin is a refugee living with us and if she cannot find a way to support herself here in Poland over the next 6 weeks before we move back, we want to look into this program to bring her to Canada as we don't want to abandon her here.

However I am not holding my breath that it will be anything substantial other than the very lucky few/privileged who are able to get approved. I've read stories on various immigration forums recently about Ukrainians attempting to do visa applications and IRCC still has not cut the red tape. Asking them to send photocopies of documents, print such and such documents, get certified translations, etc. Who the #### is able to do those kind of things while cities are getting shelled? The only way that IRCC has stepped up is prioritizing UA sponsorship applications that are already in the queue. But that really only works for Ukrainians living OUTSIDE Ukraine, as the final step is a passport submission request. Nobody inside Ukraine is going to be able to courier their passport to the visa center and back.

Canada loves to say we are an open, welcoming country to all who want to come. That couldn't be further from the truth. The red tape to enter Canada, even on a TRV , is extremely difficult for Ukrainians. I know this from personal experience and based on the reasoning given to me by IRCC in the refusal letters I requested. It's hilarious how we all love to trot out the stat that Canada has the 3rd largest Ukrainian population in the world, but we sure make it impossible for them to even come visit . Even the Polish PM was saying that his country cut the red tape for Ukrainians to enter Poland and that he wants Canada to do the same to help relieve some of the pressure.

So ultimately I will judge how well Canada helps refugees by how this Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel program works out. It should be online this week. I will be impressed if Canada actually steps up and somewhat cuts the red tape and opens the door for refugee to help alleviate some of the pressure the Eastern EU countries are dealing with.

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Old 03-16-2022, 05:41 AM   #3996
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What you call nuclear deterrence is actually nuclear blackmail, Putin and future people like him won't stop if he gets away with this crap, if his own people wont stop him then his bluff must be called.
Bluff?

So what would you do?

So eager to hear what you would do.

Give us the plan that ends this.
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Old 03-16-2022, 06:27 AM   #3997
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Good. But damn, that's crazy. 4 Generals?

When was the last time a modern military lost ANY Generals in combat?

Ukraine is playing elite-level Stratego.
Hot damn I loved that game as a kid
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Old 03-16-2022, 06:49 AM   #3998
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What you call nuclear deterrence is actually nuclear blackmail, Putin and future people like him won't stop if he gets away with this crap, if his own people wont stop him then his bluff must be called.
I’m going to have to disagree here. This is a bluff that has far to great a risk to call. We are talking the fate of humanity as a whole here. I do t think you call that bluff unless you absolutely have no choice. The global response and distaste for this war suggests that we as a whole are moving further from this an option. Putin will be stopped at a great cost to the world but unless his people change, and wake up there is not much else other countries can do right now. We watch, we help when we can, but every choice here is a measured controlled decision.
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Old 03-16-2022, 07:39 AM   #3999
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MOD map updates for the day. Russia's Southern MD and Airborne Grouping has made some gains northwards across the Dnieper river west of Nikopol otherwise lines have been pretty static since the 13th. A large scale Ukrainian counter-offense is supposedly underway, we will see how much ground they regain in the coming days.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1504067050943176706
https://twitter.com/user/status/1503982627522494465

Larger map
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503871433411280896

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Old 03-16-2022, 07:50 AM   #4000
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I've been watching this ex-US army Youtuber lately, he does a good job of organizing balanced information from an infantryman's experience and he clearly explains many of the situational issues in Ukraine. Interesting that the Russians are constructing a field pipeline to directly fuel their front lines.
He has some good videos, like the one about what happened to Ukraine's 750,000 man strong military.
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