American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[WCW Nitro]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I don't know if I agree with that, but I would probably need to be more thoughtful on that.

Harris beat Trump with the younger woman demographic between 18 and 44 53% to 43%, but the older woman demographic was closer with 51 to 47 for Harris.

White woman of course Trump took 53 to 46.

Black voters strongly supported Harris 83 to 16 but Harris dropped from Biden's 91% in the last election, Trump increase from 8 to 16%

Trump gained in almost every demographic.

Latino voters Trump increased

Young voters Harris under performed.Harris dropped from 61% to 52%

I think its difficult to label 75 million voters as mysoginysts and racists considering Trump's increases in minority groups and with woman.

Harris didn't outperform Biden in any county, not one.

I think this points to the Democrats trying to drive a narrative instead of listening to the middle and lower class and what they wanted to hear.

I think that in terms of the argument that the last two woman have lost. I think we would need to analyze the campaigns that they ran. Hillary ran a poor campaign, and avoided campaigning in key areas, Harris I don't think ran a great campaign, and she didn't present well on the border issues, the economy, and crime.







Just my 2 cents.

Hard to say for sure what exactly happened, but did Trump really run a good campaign? He got walloped in the debate, was constantly referring to Hannibal Lecter, didn't even know where he was many times etc. There's never one reason, but the degree to which Harris got clobbered makes me think the woman factor played a role, even to some women voters negatively.

[jayswin]

We can talk about one campaign vs the other, but many are missing the key ingredient to all of this: conflict in this world is changing rapidly and misinformation through social media is way more powerful than many care to admit.

The GOP is backed by arguably the largest misinformation campaign the world has seen, with Elon Musk purchasing Twitter and making it even stronger in the past year. It's crazy how powerful this warfare is and really the biggest reason why Trump won.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by BigThief

Going centre, centre-right hasn't worked. Maybe try something new.

This is basically the strategy of the modern Democratic Party. Completely unwilling to take any risks while they watch their base evaporate.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Bernie's "socialism" would have lost too.

Gotta love how sure and confident dino is regarding his political takes after being so spectacularly wrong leading up to and including yesterday.

[Zulu29]

Guess I’ll stick to my day job, political forecasting is not my forte. Boy was I ever wrong with my prediction.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by jayswin

We can talk about one campaign vs the other, but many are missing the key ingredient to all of this: conflict in this world is changing rapidly and misinformation through social media is way more powerful than many care to admit.

The GOP is backed by arguably the largest misinformation campaign the world has seen, with Elon Musk purchasing Twitter and making it even stronger in the past year. It's crazy how powerful this warfare is and really the biggest reason why Trump won.

I get what you’re saying to some degree but misinformation isn’t a new concept. While social media plays a roll, it’s tough to say that it is the biggest reason trump won. He got significantly fewer votes(as of last count) than he did in 2020, before musk bought twitter and when a pandemic was still limiting peoples’ ability to vote.

I’d argue that Biden’s early refusal to not run again and a lack of primaries for the democrat candidate played a much larger role in the results. Had Biden allowed for a proper campaign and for the democrats to see how unpopular of a choice Kamala really was during a primary they could have put a better candidate in her place.

[Sainters7]

Nvm

[opendoor]

Given the way Biden was polling, even though she lost, Harris probably did help to considerably minimize the damage in the legislative elections. Seeing how close some of the Senate races were, that could have easily been a 57-43 Senate with Biden dragging things down. Obviously they're the minority either way, but if they even want a chance of getting control in the next 6 years, they needed to hold on to some seats.

The stakes in the House weren't quite as high because they have elections every 2 years, but keeping the Republicans to a 10-seat cushion might help blunt some of the craziest legislation. There are hopefully enough blue state moderate Republican House members who won't necessarily go all in on the crazy.

People compare this election to 2016, and for the Presidency that's probably apt. But the Republicans ended up with a 47-seat majority in Congress that year which is far bigger than what they'll get this year.

[Looch City]

If Biden had conceded the 2020 election, we wouldn't be having 3rd Trump term right now.

So who's fault is it really? Thanks Biden. Should've gotten 8yr of Trump out of way all at once instead of this up and down rollercoaster.

4 years wtf
4 years yay!
4 years wtfffff
4 years yay?

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Given the way Biden was polling, even though she lost, Harris probably did help to considerably minimize the damage in the legislative elections. Seeing how close some of the Senate races were, that could have easily been a 57-43 Senate with Biden dragging things down. Obviously they're the minority either way, but if they even want a chance of getting control in the next 6 years, they needed to hold on to some seats.

The stakes in the House weren't quite as high because they have elections every 2 years, but keeping the Republicans to a 10-seat cushion might help blunt some of the craziest legislation. There are hopefully enough blue state moderate Republican House members who won't necessarily go all in on the crazy.

People compare this election to 2016, and for the Presidency that's probably apt. But the Republicans ended up with a 47-seat majority in Congress that year which is far bigger than what they'll get this year.

I agree here but man, she was pretty invisible during her 4 year term prior to Biden stepping aside. Even mike pence had more presence during his stint.. for good or bad. Not to say she wasn't doing work during the 4 years, but she wasn't much of a known quantity to those that don't follow politics much. She did pretty well for the little time she had in the spotlight

[Brupal]

Third Trump term? Only one so far.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Looch City

If Biden had conceded the 2020 election, we wouldn't be having 3rd Trump term right now.

So who's fault is it really? Thanks Biden. Should've gotten 8yr of Trump out of way all at once instead of this up and down rollercoaster.

4 years wtf
4 years yay!
4 years wtfffff
4 years yay?

If Obama didn't thoroughly embarrass Trump that one year at the WH Correspondents Dinner, which embarrassed Trump so much that he made it his mission to prove to everyone that he could be President, we wouldn't have ever had Trump at all! Thanks Obama!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Gotta love how sure and confident dino is regarding his political takes after being so spectacularly wrong leading up to and including yesterday.

Trying to will the future of humanity in the right direction...you think Bernie would have won?

[WCW Nitro]

Originally Posted by jayswin

We can talk about one campaign vs the other, but many are missing the key ingredient to all of this: conflict in this world is changing rapidly and misinformation through social media is way more powerful than many care to admit.

The GOP is backed by arguably the largest misinformation campaign the world has seen, with Elon Musk purchasing Twitter and making it even stronger in the past year. It's crazy how powerful this warfare is and really the biggest reason why Trump won.

Agreed social media is a huge factor, but I am not sure that the majority don't realize it's misinformation and they want to believe what they're reading..There is a significant part of the population that freaks out at the littlest things, a fictional white character being played by a minority actor, a woman doing commentary for sports, etc..When you have that kind of a population I think they want to believe what they're seeing on social media

[GGG]

If I had to pick the point of failure it’s that they didn’t follow through on the commitment that Biden was going to be a 1 term caretaker president. They didn’t build up Harris or Brown or Witmer or any alternative to Biden over the first 3 years of his term. That lack of a succession plan and the lack of the primary really hurt.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Guess I’ll stick to my day job, political forecasting is not my forte. Boy was I ever wrong with my prediction.

It was interesting how both sides news outlets were forecasting a win and that voters were jumping ship on the other candidate.

But only one side was going to be right about that.

A lot of blue political youtube pundits were a little too sure of themselves and really pushed the narrative that the Trump stood no chance here.

A couple of them haven't posted since the result.. oof.

[activeStick]

Ugh, I just saw that MTG won re-election. She might annoy me the most.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Ugh, I just saw that MTG won re-election. She might annoy me the most.

I suppose she ran a great campaign and her opponent didn't because that's how it works right?

Or is the average person ridiculously stupid?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Looch City

If Biden had conceded the 2020 election, we wouldn't be having 3rd Trump term right now.

So who's fault is it really? Thanks Biden. Should've gotten 8yr of Trump out of way all at once instead of this up and down rollercoaster.

4 years wtf
4 years yay!
4 years wtfffff
4 years yay?

Concede an election he won?


Who would do that

[blankall]

Why isn't the thread title:

Orange-you glad I didn't say Kamala?