The Risk of Picking First

[Owen15]

This was an AI search result.

But seriously. The initial pick in a small population isn’t statistically the right one.

Of course scouting staffs factor in. But they are also making educated guesses about what’s behind door #3.

In the case we have four players who could potentially be #1 to varying degrees with probabilities assigned to them.

The risks of drafting high are very real.

[browntrout]

What the flames desperately need is a centre, but they also need to be mindfulness that rebuilding takes time, they can always look to draft a centre in 2027-2029, I get the sense that ownership wants to be competitive right away when the arena opens, that just is not happening.

If McKenna is available to draft, they have to draft him regardless if he is a winger, he is exactly what this org needs right.

You always take the BPA

[Owen15]

I could also see where BPA is Verhoff. That could be great. But the last few games hammer home how challenged this team is offensively and talent wise. Not to say an elite dman isn’t great. But wouldn’t it be great if the red and white had the next Bédard or Celebrini?

[DJones]

Get this type of negative energy off the boards haha

Who hopes for a lesser pick out of fear of failure. Oh no, the 1st pick might only be the 3rd best player. Better pick 4th

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by DJones

Get this type of negative energy off the boards haha

Who hopes for a lesser pick out of fear of failure. Oh no, the 1st pick might only be the 3rd best player. Better pick 4th

Or the next Denis Cyr.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Owen15

CP will be unbearable for 10 years or more if our pick isn’t amazing.

We could wait to see what falls in our lap. Or we can man up and get the guy.

That timer has already started.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

I also didn’t read the OP but want to respond angrily.

Let’s trade our pick for veteran help!

[saillias]

Well the concern of a bust doesn't lessen with going down the draft, it increases.

I think you've identified a real problem, what if we get a high pick and he still isn't a franchise player. But the solution is more picks, more lottery finishes. The worst thing the team could do is get one McKenna and say all done my rebuild, I have McKenna and Parekh, and switch to win now. You need 5 stars to win the cup nowadays, not 2.

[Royle9]

I'll take the risk, our scouting staff the last few years have earned our trust.

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I'll take the risk, our scouting staff the last few years have earned our trust.

Totally.

I think our scouting staff have done a very good job. 100%. I do believe the pick we make, pending a trade for much needed veterans, will be sound.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

If Florida had the 4th pick in that draft instead of us, it's likely a home run for them. Just didn't work out for him here.

And maybe Calgary picks a better player like Nylander or Pasternak.

But seriously on this topic, 1OA usually works out - of course normally there's a consensus #1 and it gets progressively muddier. Look at the mess after #1 in 2016. I'd say in 7 out of the last drafts since 2015 the 1OA is the best player picked. And in a couple of the ones where they weren't, drafting 4 wouldn't have helped, because Wyatt Johnston and Quinn Hughes were picked later (in the other 2 the best players were 3 and 4).

Are there anomalies? Sure, just like in pretty much every draft there's a 2nd rounder (or later) in the top 10 in scoring from that draft class. But you are still likely to get a great player. I doubt NJ spends much time thinking about how they could have had Cale Makar but the "only" got Nico Hischier.

Can you imagine a GM winning the lottery and turning it down because that's too much pressure? LOL.

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And maybe Calgary picks a better player like Nylander or Pasternak.

But seriously on this topic, 1OA usually works out - of course normally there's a consensus #1 and it gets progressively muddier. Look at the mess after #1 in 2016. I'd say in 7 out of the last drafts since 2015 the 1OA is the best player picked. And in a couple of the ones where they weren't, drafting 4 wouldn't have helped, because Wyatt Johnston and Quinn Hughes were picked later (in the other 2 the best players were 3 and 4).

Are there anomalies? Sure, just like in pretty much every draft there's a 2nd rounder (or later) in the top 10 in scoring from that draft class. But you are still likely to get a great player. I doubt NJ spends much time thinking about how they could have had Cale Makar but the "only" got Nico Hischier.

Can you imagine a GM winning the lottery and turning it down because that's too much pressure? LOL.

True.Man I’m not built for rebuilds.lol

[Wastedyouth]

Nvm.

[InternationalVillager]

Mckenna is going to be a point producing NHL player. That's not a question.

The question is whether he will be a game-breaking franchise cornerstone.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Mckenna is going to be a point producing NHL player. That's not a question.

The question is whether he will be a game-breaking franchise cornerstone.

But the question is also whether any of the others will be a game-breaking franchise player either.

Drafting isn't a black or white, right or wrong decision. You assess the skill set and the likelihood of achieving their projections, and weigh the pros and cons. That's all you can do.

Your odds are best with the #1 pick, and they decline, as the draft goes along.

[Erick Estrada]

There’s high risk in every single pic of the draft. The first overall pick comes with the lowest amount of risk. That organization can choose any player they want without being dictated by any team in front of them.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Would be easiest to stomach picking last in the top tier because then the choice is made for you.

No matter what there's a risk.

Im pretty confident the floor is very high for any of the top 4 though. Just pick there.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That's what we said in the Bennett draft, how did that work?

We were kind of right? We didn't get the best player, but there was indeed a ledge after Bennett. The next three picks were far worse.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And maybe Calgary picks a better player like Nylander or Pasternak.

But seriously on this topic, 1OA usually works out - of course normally there's a consensus #1 and it gets progressively muddier. Look at the mess after #1 in 2016. I'd say in 7 out of the last drafts since 2015 the 1OA is the best player picked. And in a couple of the ones where they weren't, drafting 4 wouldn't have helped, because Wyatt Johnston and Quinn Hughes were picked later (in the other 2 the best players were 3 and 4).

Are there anomalies? Sure, just like in pretty much every draft there's a 2nd rounder (or later) in the top 10 in scoring from that draft class. But you are still likely to get a great player. I doubt NJ spends much time thinking about how they could have had Cale Makar but the "only" got Nico Hischier.

Can you imagine a GM winning the lottery and turning it down because that's too much pressure? LOL.

All good points. The thing is though, if we'd had the #3 pick and chose Sam instead of Leon, that decision would not have aged well at all.

I still agree that you always want your picks to be as high in the draft as possible. But in some situations it opens up more room for second-guessing/regret/frustration.

[stemit14]

I wonder how flames fans would react if the flames did end up with first overall and ended up picking Lawrence who is ranked 4th overall in most lists? Would it be a similar reaction to many Montreal fans when they went with Slafkovsky instead of Wright? That decision looks like the right one in hindsight but I do remember there being a lot of nervous Montreal fans who thought the choice should have been the skilled center instead of the winger.