Yzerman seems to demand a certain amount of character, and if you don't have it, he doesn't want you around. Saw it in TB with DeAngelo and Ingram, and now here in Detroit with Vrana and Zadina.
You still need to have them in order to actually hit on one.
Sure you do but I am taking about when people want to trade established in their prime players for a 1st and think it's an automatic win. Sometimes, but mostly it isn't.
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Yup, this is why I always say 1st rnd picks are overhyped, the majority of them don't become impact players.
I've really appreciated your inside hits the past season. Also I understand that sometimes what is reported shifts quickly and don't hold those that report what they heard at a point in time responsible for their accurately reported take not coming to fruition. Just wanted to say that upfront.
On to your comment I'd like to build on. When it comes to picks, prospects and players, they should all fit on a risk / return frontier in my opinion.
Risk being measured as probability of success. Return being their likelihood of fulfilling their positional role with AAV accounted for.
E.g.: Kadri would be an AAV of $7m and a 99% COS of being a 2nd line center with 50pts. A 2nd round draft pick would be a 20% COS of being a 2nd line center scoring 50pts, but would only cost $895k.
If a particular draft pick has less than a 13% chance of scoring those 50pts then they're even with Kadri's risk.
Now for years I assume that the Flames have some version of this ranking with age cohorts vs a model of what they need to win a Stanley Cup (e.g. Elite Dman, Elite Centre, Elite Goaltender, etc), but the more I hear from the inside the more I have my doubts.
I've really appreciated your inside hits the past season. Also I understand that sometimes what is reported shifts quickly and don't hold those that report what they heard at a point in time responsible for their accurately reported take not coming to fruition. Just wanted to say that upfront.
On to your comment I'd like to build on. When it comes to picks, prospects and players, they should all fit on a risk / return frontier in my opinion.
Risk being measured as probability of success. Return being their likelihood of fulfilling their positional role with AAV accounted for.
E.g.: Kadri would be an AAV of $7m and a 99% COS of being a 2nd line center with 50pts. A 2nd round draft pick would be a 20% COS of being a 2nd line center scoring 50pts, but would only cost $895k.
If a particular draft pick has less than a 13% chance of scoring those 50pts then they're even with Kadri's risk.
Now for years I assume that the Flames have some version of this ranking with age cohorts vs a model of what they need to win a Stanley Cup (e.g. Elite Dman, Elite Centre, Elite Goaltender, etc), but the more I hear from the inside the more I have my doubts.
That is all very interest, but the problem with your model is that the chance for the 2nd round pick hitting 50 points next year is basically zero. The 50 point plateau might be the high water mark over his career.
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From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
