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Old 10-19-2022, 11:12 AM   #21
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It's not the most illuminating stat. Some goalies are better than others, some shooters are better than others, neither because of luck. A PDO of 1.0 could mean that goalies and shooters are both average or it could mean that goalies are great and shooters are poor or vice versa. I think it's only really useful for your last line...PDO that is clearly above or below the normal range is a red flag.
Pretty sure I said all that.

Good teams out perform the 1.0 but not as much as we are seeing from some hot starts out there.
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Old 10-19-2022, 11:13 AM   #22
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Have to think Lucic has had some sort of a burst in training in the off season. He looks considerably quicker.

Maybe just seeing him healthy ... I think he was pretty banged up in the last 1/4 of last season and into the playoffs.

But man that fourth line is a huge boon to a team that wants to roll four lines. You have the three centers on lines that can score, and then a fourth line with two beasts coming at you with energy.
Lucic looked quicker at the start of last season too IMO, but as the season went on, he slowed down.
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Old 10-19-2022, 11:15 AM   #23
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For example, last year average NHL save % was .907 and shooting percentage was 9.3%. Currently the Flames are .893 and 11.0% which gives a PDO of 1.003, which is very average but hides the fact that they have hot shooting and less than average goaltending.

On the other hand, what constitutes hot shooting? Last year, team sh% ranged from 8.2 to 12.4, fairly well-distributed between those extremes. The idea that shooting and save percentage revert to the mean is really not that valid.

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=n...entage+2021-22
Year over year teams get into a 6% band between 0.97 and 1.03

You can out perform the average on both stats, but usually not by much.
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Old 10-19-2022, 11:23 AM   #24
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The fourth line this year really reminds me of some of those tough lines Darryl had in LA. I'm thinking the ones he had with Clifford and/or Lewis. North-South hockey, physical and wears defenders down for the other lines to follow up on.
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Old 10-19-2022, 11:37 AM   #25
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Lucid
An excellent auto correction.


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