[Game Takes] Flames 3 Vegas 2

[Bingo]

Flames 3 Vegas 2

- Markstrom solid after flubbing 2nd shot
- Huberdeau a wizard with two assists
- Flames come from behind to win third to start season
- Edmonton bobbles another one at home

[Enoch Root]

they showed the shot attempts at 66-36 about midway in the 3rd - it was a pretty dominant game by the Flames. A weak one on Markstrom, and a few 5 alarmers at the other end, made the score look a lot closer than the game actually was.

[Flames1217]

Backlund has notoriously been a slow starter throughout his career. This year his matchups are a bit different and it shows. Starting the season very strong and Coleman is a beast.

[Erick Estrada]

Vegas didn't look that great as this score really flattered them. I was having visions of the Stars series for a while as Thompson doing a pretty good impression of Oettinger but the Flames were persistent. No passengers on this team right now as said above even Backlund is off to a better than normal start to the season.

[icarus]

"Not a single player finished under water in terms of expected goals five on five."

This is pretty impressive, not a single skater was a liability in this game. The score flattered Vegas.

[Bingo]

Have to think Lucic has had some sort of a burst in training in the off season. He looks considerably quicker.

Maybe just seeing him healthy ... I think he was pretty banged up in the last 1/4 of last season and into the playoffs.

But man that fourth line is a huge boon to a team that wants to roll four lines. You have the three centers on lines that can score, and then a fourth line with two beasts coming at you with energy.

[Bingo]

Interesting to look at the top teams in the early going.

By win %

Dallas
St. Louis (1 game)
Philly
Carolina
Calgary
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Boston
Vegas
Rangers

8 of the 10 teams above have accompanying PDO heaters to start the season.

Dallas and St. Louis at 1.12, Philly at 1.08, Carolina and Detroit at 1.06, Pittsburgh and Boston at 1.04, Vegas at 1.03.

Flames and Rangers plugging away at 1.003 and 1.006 ...

Flames also right back to the same rankings they had last season for almost all shot metrics. Essentially top five in shot attempt splits, expected goals, high danger splits.

You want to start well, but this team isn't doing it with mirrors, a shooting percentage rampage, or riding a hot goaltender.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting to look at the top teams in the early going.

By win %

Dallas
St. Louis (1 game)
Philly
Carolina
Calgary
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Boston
Vegas
Rangers

8 of the 10 teams above have accompanying PDO heaters to start the season.

Dallas and St. Louis at 1.12, Philly at 1.08, Carolina and Detroit at 1.06, Pittsburgh and Boston at 1.04, Vegas at 1.03.

Flames and Rangers plugging away at 1.003 and 1.006 ...

Flames also right back to the same rankings they had last season for almost all shot metrics. Essentially top five in shot attempt splits, expected goals, high danger splits.

You want to start well, but this team isn't doing it with mirrors, a shooting percentage rampage, or riding a hot goaltender.

Great breakdown of the teams starting hot.

[Strange Brew]

Only saw the third period, but struck me as a very workmanlike win for the team. Just TCOB.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting to look at the top teams in the early going.

By win %

Dallas
St. Louis (1 game)
Philly
Carolina
Calgary
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Boston
Vegas
Rangers

8 of the 10 teams above have accompanying PDO heaters to start the season.

Dallas and St. Louis at 1.12, Philly at 1.08, Carolina and Detroit at 1.06, Pittsburgh and Boston at 1.04, Vegas at 1.03.

Flames and Rangers plugging away at 1.003 and 1.006 ...

Flames also right back to the same rankings they had last season for almost all shot metrics. Essentially top five in shot attempt splits, expected goals, high danger splits.

You want to start well, but this team isn't doing it with mirrors, a shooting percentage rampage, or riding a hot goaltender.

What is the PDO and how does it indicate future performance?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

What is the PDO and how does it indicate future performance?

As I understand it, PDO is the simple combination of save percentage + shooting percentage. A high PDO is well over 100, and a low PDO is well under 100, and these are thought to be indicators of teams that are exceptionally fortunate or unfortunate. The idea is that over the course of the season numbers will all tend to drift closer to the mean.

The Flames's PDO being so close to 100 suggests that they are getting an expected result, not dependent on unsustainable shooting/save percentages, and thus, is something that looks to be a trend.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

What is the PDO and how does it indicate future performance?

It doesn't.

The past can predict the future, but it doesn't have to of course.

PDO just combines the save percentage and shooting percentage of each team. The result has become sort of a luck index. 1.0 suggests a team is getting the results they deserve. 0.97 suggests a team is going through some tough puck luck, and say 1.03 means they're on a goalie or shooting heater.

Talent can out perform to some degree, but not to what you see in a small sample size.

Last year, for example the #1 PDO team was St. Louis at 1.032, the Kraken were last at 0.97.

Generally good teams can get above 1.0 and sustain it, but not 1.06 or 1.12.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Have to think Lucic has had some sort of a burst in training in the off season. He looks considerably quicker.

Maybe just seeing him healthy ... I think he was pretty banged up in the last 1/4 of last season and into the playoffs.

But man that fourth line is a huge boon to a team that wants to roll four lines. You have the three centers on lines that can score, and then a fourth line with two beasts coming at you with energy.

Lucid plays a tough game. I wouldn’t mind seeing some load management with him - give a rest every so often to recharge.

Edit: Lucic

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting to look at the top teams in the early going.

By win %

Dallas
St. Louis (1 game)
Philly
Carolina
Calgary
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Boston
Vegas
Rangers

8 of the 10 teams above have accompanying PDO heaters to start the season.

Dallas and St. Louis at 1.12, Philly at 1.08, Carolina and Detroit at 1.06, Pittsburgh and Boston at 1.04, Vegas at 1.03.

Flames and Rangers plugging away at 1.003 and 1.006 ...

Flames also right back to the same rankings they had last season for almost all shot metrics. Essentially top five in shot attempt splits, expected goals, high danger splits.

You want to start well, but this team isn't doing it with mirrors, a shooting percentage rampage, or riding a hot goaltender.

I believe St. Louis has been riding a high PDO for a while now. They appear to have a stronger than normal ability to finish.

[Samonadreau]

"Not a single player under water at 5v5"

Pure domination.

[TheScorpion]

Fourth line has looked fantastic to start things off — stealing and possessing the puck, moving it up the ice, and getting scoring chances.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lucid plays a tough game. I wouldn’t mind seeing some load management with him - give a rest every so often to recharge.

Exactly what I would like to see - play him about 50-60 games or so.

This also gets some of the other guys, like Ruzicka, into the lineup

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It doesn't.

The past can predict the future, but it doesn't have to of course.

PDO just combines the save percentage and shooting percentage of each team. The result has become sort of a luck index. 1.0 suggests a team is getting the results they deserve. 0.97 suggests a team is going through some tough puck luck, and say 1.03 means they're on a goalie or shooting heater.

Talent can out perform to some degree, but not to what you see in a small sample size.

Last year, for example the #1 PDO team was St. Louis at 1.032, the Kraken were last at 0.97.

Generally good teams can get above 1.0 and sustain it, but not 1.06 or 1.12.

It's not the most illuminating stat. Some goalies are better than others, some shooters are better than others, neither because of luck. A PDO of 1.0 could mean that goalies and shooters are both average or it could mean that goalies are great and shooters are poor or vice versa. I think it's only really useful for your last line...PDO that is clearly above or below the normal range is a red flag.

[Bingo Jr.]

It's strange having absolutely nothing to complain about. Sutter is HIM.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by edslunch

It's not the most illuminating stat. Some goalies are better than others, some shooters are better than others, neither because of luck. A PDO of 1.0 could mean that goalies and shooters are both average or it could mean that goalies are great and shooters are poor or vice versa. I think it's only really useful for your last line...PDO that is clearly above or below the normal range is a red flag.

For example, last year average NHL save % was .907 and shooting percentage was 9.3%. Currently the Flames are .893 and 11.0% which gives a PDO of 1.003, which is very average but hides the fact that they have hot shooting and less than average goaltending.

On the other hand, what constitutes hot shooting? Last year, team sh% ranged from 8.2 to 12.4, fairly well-distributed between those extremes. The idea that shooting and save percentage revert to the mean is really not that valid.

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=n...entage+2021-22