Blackhawks and Kyle Beach agree on settlement in negligence lawsuit

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Coach

I dunno. He was a top draft pick who was assaulted before he was able to develop as a player at all. Argument could be made he could have had a $50+million dollar career if not for this incident.

Agreed, but he also could have fizzled out and made little.

A court will not assume the maximum he could have made, but a reasonable estimate of the likely amount.

He doesn't get what he could have made. He would be entitled to what he might reasonably have earned, which would need to take some reasonable discount of his maximum earning potential.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Agreed, but he also could have fizzled out and made little.

A court will not assume the maximum he could have made, but a reasonable estimate of the likely amount.

He doesn't get what he could have made. He would be entitled to what he might reasonably have earned, which would need to take some reasonable discount of his maximum earning potential.

Agree, but even the $50 mil is not his "max earning potential". His max earning potential is that of a superstar NHL player over a 15 year career. That's over $100m just in potential salary.

So yeah it probably falls somewhere below the middle there, but a 10 year career making an average of $3m per season is definitely reasonable I would say.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Agreed, but he also could have fizzled out and made little.

A court will not assume the maximum he could have made, but a reasonable estimate of the likely amount.

He doesn't get what he could have made. He would be entitled to what he might reasonably have earned, which would need to take some reasonable discount of his maximum earning potential.

There are missed career earnings and psychological damage etc. So they would be compensating for both I'd imagine.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Coach

Agree, but even the $50 mil is not his "max earning potential". His max earning potential is that of a superstar NHL player over a 15 year career. That's over $100m just in potential salary.

So yeah it probably falls somewhere below the middle there, but a 10 year career making an average of $3m per season is definitely reasonable I would say.

I would bet that at least half of #11 picks are busts or close to busts. I doubt that the average player drafted in that range doesn’t make $30M in his career.


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[cam_wmh]

IANAL.. Simplified;
Drafted right before him @10th, is Cody Hogson with $14m, in total earnings.
Right after Beach, @ 12th was Tyler Myers who will make $68m.
So, a basic estimation of lost wages, + physical/psychological damages.
Draft years vary by talent, yet in 2008, MOST of the 1st round draftees made life changing money.

ie.; as compensation comparables, adjacent 2008 draftees are more relevant, than past 11th overalls.



$30m.

[GioforPM]

People are leaving out that a settlement also involves some allocation of the risk that he’d get zero because he couldn’t establish liability or a connection to the alleged loss of income. So you come to an agreement on likely range of damages and then do a further reduction for litigation risk.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

IANAL.. Simplified;
Drafted right before him @10th, is Cody Hogson with $14m, in total earnings.
Right after Beach, @ 12th was Tyler Myers who will make $68m.
So, a basic estimation of lost wages, + physical/psychological damages.
Draft years vary by talent, yet in 2008, MOST of the 1st round draftees made life changing money.

ie.; as compensation comparables, adjacent 2008 draftees are more relevant, than past 11th overalls.



$30m.

That’s two guys, holy small sample size. A court would look at 50 or more players in the draft range.

That’s too simplified.


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[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

That’s two guys, holy small sample size. A court would look at 50 or more players in the draft range.


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I don't disagree that two is a small sample.
Where are you citing that 50 data points, would be what the courts would use?

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

People are leaving out that a settlement also involves some allocation of the risk that he’d get zero because he couldn’t establish liability or a connection to the alleged loss of income. So you come to an agreement on likely range of damages and then do a further reduction for litigation risk.

Litigation risk, and potential for zero damages for Beach, but also further brand damage for the Hawks (NHL?) by extending the trial to the public eye.

Everyone knew, that the Hawks would want to settle this before it went to court. Mitigating Beach's risk for zero.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

They fired most of their senior management and had to endure a media ####storm that lasted for weeks, which may have permanently damaged their image. And they have paid what is presumably a life-changing sum of money in compensation.

By your standards, what would not constitute ‘sweeping this under the rug’? Public hangings?

Man...I hope Beach really takes them to the cleaners.

Like a good John Grisham film...make it punitive so nobody ever even thinks twice about what they should do if it were to ever happen again.

I'm happy for Beach. Honestly. He took the difficult, moral path to rectify a criminal injustice, it appears as though his words and story will be heeded and he gets financial compensation.

I know the purveying thoughts are that money cant heal the wounds, but a truckload of money will make the wound-healing process a lot easier to endure.

When it mattered he stood up. Now he gets rewarded for that integrity.

Its nice sometimes to see people rewarded for their courage and sacrifice. It might encourage others to stand similarly against injustice.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

I don't disagree that two is a small sample.
Where are you citing that 50 data points, would be what the courts would use?

In establishing what money he would likely have made in his career, common sense would dictate that you would look at as much evidence as was available to determine that range.

Basing it strictly on the average of what the 2 players immediately before and after made would be senseless as simply too small a sample size.

The court would presumably consider whatever evidence was presented.


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[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

In establishing what money he would likely have made in his career, common sense would dictate that you would look at as much evidence as was available to determine that range.

Basing it strictly on the average of what the 2 players immediately before and after made would be senseless as simply too small a sample size.

The court would presumably consider whatever evidence was presented.


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So nothing to cite, gotcha.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

So nothing to cite, gotcha.

There is no magic number. The Courts would look at whatever evidence was presented to them. That could be 10, 50 or a thousand. Each side would present evidence to prove their damage claim. If one wanted to base their case on simply the average on the picks before and after Beech’s, it wouldn’t get them very far.


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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

There is no magic number. The Courts would look at whatever evidence was presented to them. That could be 10, 50 or a thousand. Each side would present evidence to prove their damage claim. If one wanted to base their case on simply the average on the picks before and after Beech’s, it wouldn’t get them very far.


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Yeah, each side would have had an expert - some sort of number cruncher, who would write a report based on whatever facts and figures they could manage (with an aim to proving their "side"). And then Beach would have been heavily cross-examined to make his case fit lower on the scale and I suppose there might have even been evidence from coaches from the time saying he just wasn't working out even before the incidents. It ain't just a math exercise.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yeah, each side would have had an expert - some sort of number cruncher, who would write a report based on whatever facts and figures they could manage (with an aim to proving their "side"). And then Beach would have been heavily cross-examined to make his case fit lower on the scale and I suppose there might have even been evidence from coaches from the time saying he just wasn't working out even before the incidents. It ain't just a math exercise.

Except he was deemed good enough to finish out a stellar junior career, play in the minors for a short period and then called up for the Stanley Cup Playoffs as a 19/20 year old. It would be awfully hard for the "coaches" to say their top ranked prospect wasn't working out.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

Except he was deemed good enough to finish out a stellar junior career, play in the minors for a short period and then called up for the Stanley Cup Playoffs as a 19/20 year old. It would be awfully hard for the "coaches" to say their top ranked prospect wasn't working out.

His junior numbers were OK, not spectacular. Around PPG. At that time Brandon Kozun scored 108 points and 4 other guys on the Hitmen scored more than Beach.

I would imagine their internal reports would be part of the documents reviewed. He was indeed called up - as a Black Ace though. I’m just saying he was looking at a vigorous cross-examination on his career. It’s worth some downward movement to avoid it.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

His junior numbers were OK, not spectacular. Around PPG. At that time Brandon Kozun scored 108 points and 4 other guys on the Hitmen scored more than Beach.

I would imagine their internal reports would be part of the documents reviewed. He was indeed called up - as a Black Ace though. I’m just saying he was looking at a vigorous cross-examination on his career. It’s worth some downward movement to avoid it.

True but the psychological impact of being abused and nobody helping probably affected his development. I believe there would be a better chance of his team showing the court/jury that this damage screwed him over than some coaches saying he didn't develop well enough to play. But this is only my opinion.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

His junior numbers were OK, not spectacular. Around PPG. At that time Brandon Kozun scored 108 points and 4 other guys on the Hitmen scored more than Beach.

I would imagine their internal reports would be part of the documents reviewed. He was indeed called up - as a Black Ace though. I’m just saying he was looking at a vigorous cross-examination on his career. It’s worth some downward movement to avoid it.

I don't think Beach was high on the list purely because of his hands.. his fists were well sought out as well

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by calumniate

I don't think Beach was high on the list purely because of his hands.. his fists were well sought out as well

Well, sure, but that doesn’t put you in the high earning category, generally. Just saying, let’s not pretend there wasn’t a lot of risk for him in going to court. Hell, a jury might not even believe he was impacted financially (doubtful, but there’s a risk with any jury).

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

True but the psychological impact of being abused and nobody helping probably affected his development. I believe there would be a better chance of his team showing the court/jury that this damage screwed him over than some coaches saying he didn't develop well enough to play. But this is only my opinion.

I think it’s pretty dangerous to predict how a court or jury would interpret evidence that you haven’t even seen or heard.

Let’s not pretend Beech was some super prospect who was sure to succeed. He was a very good prospect who had a reputation of being tough with perhaps questionable hands. Prospects like that fail all the time.

I’m sure he got a very good settlement, likely on the high side because Chicago had all the motivation in the world to make this go away.

But none of us have any idea how this would of played out in court. Predicting how a likely 2 week trial would be determined based on info presented in the media is senseless.


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