Expansion Draft Simulator

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I get the comparison but different situations.

Feaster and co missed the small print in an existing document. Treliving has already said we will have to wait and see in a document as of yet not seen.

Now if the rules were released and he traded for a goaltender and then realised he had to expose Gillies it would be different.

Having said all that ... those that take the time to go through the capfriendly calculator ... will Gillies be at risk of being taken anyway?

No, because we can protect one goalie, and in my mind it wouldn't be Ortio.

Depending on how teams protect established veteran/upcoming rookie, I think you could see a few veterans like Raanta picked up. Maybe a Bishop or Elliot depending on whether they are UFA, and then you get to the young guys like Pickard, Subban. If Gillies is exposed, I think there would be a decent chance he would go.

[Bingo]

If Gillies has to be protected then the Flames are no longer in the driver seat for acquiring a goaltender, or at least they're not in as much of a driver seat as they would risk losing Gillies to protect the player they acquired.

Now this can go two ways.

1. Get a goalie they love, protect him, and then risk losing Gillies
2. Acquire a goalie for cheap, expose him and risk losing him a year later

If the acquisition cost is cheap option 2 might be doable. Especially since they have a year to watch Gillies develop and make a call. Doubtful he's ready after one, but he's certainly more ready than he is now.

This doesn't work in the MAF case though as he could refuse to waive his NMC forcing the Flames to expose Gillies again.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I would just add that the generalfanager thing, while fun, seems to show a bunch of UFAs on the rosters that could be protected, which clearly isn't correct. I guess we'll need to see the full list of rules/ineligible players before getting too worked up.

[DJones]

Can someone please do the math to see if Gilles is protected and then maybe we can sticky it to the front page.

The back and forth is killing me.

[IgiTang]

There are going to be a lot better options exposed over Gillies. I don't think he's the guy that gets picked up if exposed.

I ran the simulator and I found that Bouma is likely the guy that gets picked up, if any Flames players get picked up.

Further more, as I said in the trade rumour thread, a lot of GM's are going to have to take what they can get for some really decent players or run the risk of losing one of them for nothing.

Anaheim going to have to expose a good young Dman and solid goalie.

Nashville gonna have to expose a good Dman, likely Ekholm

StL will have to expose some good young fwds or give up some quality vets, also a solid NhL starting goalie, also one of Shatts, Pietrangelo or Jaybo.

Pittsburgh, will have to expose a solid young D in Cole, Dumoulin or Schultz, also a solid young fwd like Bennett, Khunackle or Rust and either move Fleury or expose Murray.

NYR, Yandle will likely get exposed, but NYR maybe expose Nash? They have to expose Raanta and some more decent young fwds.

[dammage79]

Yeah I think the risk in exposing Gillies is small given the amount of other goalies will be available. I think this may be a case of fans really over valuing the prospect base and thinking we have a Korpisalo or Murray or Jones on our hands when reality is by the time we get to exp draft day, there won't be enough time for Gillies to establish if he is that valuable.

[Mass_nerder]

Minnesota is going to have to expose a good d man:
Suter and Spurgeon are protected, and I would guess they'll choose Dumba.
That leaves Brodin and Scandella free.

[Stay Golden]

Do teams have to protect a player if he has a NTC? That would really change how a GM stick handles through this.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Minnesota is going to have to expose a good d man:
Suter and Spurgeon are protected, and I would guess they'll choose Dumba.
That leaves Brodin and Scandella free.

Could be a 4-4-1 team.

I suspect Nashville will go 4-4-1 as well with Weber, Josi, Ekholm and Ellis.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Do teams have to protect a player if he has a NTC? That would really change how a GM stick handles through this.

No, just players with NMC's that extend to at least 2017/18.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Minnesota is going to have to expose a good d man:
Suter and Spurgeon are protected, and I would guess they'll choose Dumba.
That leaves Brodin and Scandella free.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Could be a 4-4-1 team.

I suspect Nashville will go 4-4-1 as well with Weber, Josi, Ekholm and Ellis.

Also of note, WPG has to protect Enstrom and Byfuglien, so if they keep Trouba they might need to go 4-4-1 as well with Myers being the 4th.

[GreenLantern2814]

I don't see how Gillies could be available but Kylington is protected.

[This post is terrible]

It sucks that Edmonton should be able to trade for a decent defenseman

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah, they are likely going to lose a Dman in this, especially if they keep both Vatanen and Lindholm, but luckily for them they are a freaking defenseman factory and probably won't even feel it.

Assuming they keep all of them:

P - Bieksa
P - Lindholm (22)
P - Fowler (24)

Vatanen (25)
Despres (24)
Stoner
Manson (24)
Theodore (20) Exempt from expansion draft


8 NHL defensemen, and the cupboard is hardly bare:

Brandon Montour (22) - 57 points as a rookie in the AHL
Jacob Larsson (19) - 1st rounder from last year
Marcus Pettersson (20) - 2nd rounder from 2014, big mobile Dman


I want to laugh at them, but I can't. They are too good at developing players, especially defensemen.

they have been fantastic at drafting and developing defensemen. But I figure they will move a defenseman this summer or buyout Bieksa, perhaps protect 8 skaters.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Also of note, WPG has to protect Enstrom and Byfuglien, so if they keep Trouba they might need to go 4-4-1 as well with Myers being the 4th.

i think it's great that there appears to be so many teams doing this, it will allow Vegas to get some better forwards.

[Stay Golden]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

No, just players with NMC's that extend to at least 2017/18.

Thanks that is at least something to work with for GM''s.
Otherwise a new team could have a roster superior to several existing squads.
I realize that the NHL wants a new team to not be cannon fodder to start off with but giving them a distinct advantage over other teams isn't really right.
Good to see the NHL addressed the NMC players properly.
Also just the pure essence of a player with a NMC being forced to move to club they didnt stipulate as ok would be just wrong contractual wise.
The players that Las Vegas will be able to choose from should result on paper as a competitive team but chemistry will be parimount.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I get the comparison but different situations.

Feaster and co missed the small print in an existing document. Treliving has already said we will have to wait and see in a document as of yet not seen.

Now if the rules were released and he traded for a goaltender and then realised he had to expose Gillies it would be different.

Having said all that ... those that take the time to go through the capfriendly calculator ... will Gillies be at risk of being taken anyway?

Not to revisit this, but, since you started it... ; )
No. The initial memorandum of understanding was written in such a way that Feaster's interpretation was correct, and that was all that existed at the time. Due to Feaster's interpretation being valid, the final document was changed.

[Vulcan]

I don't think that Gillies will be eligible for the expansion draft but if he is, he could be valuable because he'll still have a year left where he is waivers-exempt. Vegas needs players they can send to the farm.

[SebC]

This exercise shows that certain team strategies have been penalized over others by the rules. It would have been a lot more fair to just say you can protect "x" players regardless of position, and let things sort themselves out in terms of positional availability.

[Hackey]

Is losing Gillies really that big of a concern? Seems like there will be way better options available. How many goalie selections would LV get?