Calgary Housing Prices Comparables

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

All these people "waiting it out" for the possibility of lower prices. When oil starts reversing trends, you get another housing boom with everybody entering the market at once.

This is not some hypothetical fantasyland, Calgary housing prices are dropping as we speak.

[ranchlandsselling]

Just for interests sake, Exiled, where's this "glut" of housing coming from? Who are these people listing their houses?

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Just for interests sake, Exiled, where's this "glut" of housing coming from? Who are these people listing their houses?

This is a question for realtor 1. Checkout his market trends thread for current supply/demand numbers.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is false. Housing prices have never stayed flat in previous busts.

Expect to see a 10-20% drop in housing prices during this bust, just like every other bust we've had.

The housing prices have already started reacting to current market conditions.

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Really? "Beyond ridiculous"? Let me guess. Your only argument is " it's different this time "

Ironically the housing market is following a similar path as the global oil market. A glut of supply and decreased demand. Which of course leads to lower prices. We are already ~2% down from the peak of June 2014. Hell it's not reaching to predict prices will be down 5% from the peak by spring.

Historically, during the 80s bust we saw a 38% drop in prices from peak to trough, and during the 08/09 bust we saw a 17.8% decline.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...ales-timeline/

It's gonna be a rough year for everyone. Real estate is not gonna somehow avoid the economic reality of the province and come out unscathed. To suggest so is disingenuous

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

The rental market and the for sale market are not the same thing.

Number of for sale listings up 40% from same time last year. Which is a glut of listings.
http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

Rental vacancy already increasing as of Oct. Couldn't find any recent numbers but I assume vacancy has only increased since then.
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/calg...port-1.2875080

2015 will be a very interesting year for the real estate market here in Calgary.

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is not some hypothetical fantasyland, Calgary housing prices are dropping as we speak.

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is a question for realtor 1. Checkout his market trends thread for current supply/demand numbers.

Oh, I see then.

So you're an expert until it's time to answer a direct question to support what you've been spewing in thread after thread at which point you deflect to someone else?

Let me give you the gist of what I'm getting at.

All these people you think are going to sell their houses or have listed their houses (needed to drive prices down) are going to have to move somewhere. Unless you can prove there's an equivalent exodus from Calgary there will still be demand for housing. Prices should come down a little as when things change dramatically in the O&G market they always do. But without significant statistics more than just the December listings vs 2013 you have very little evidence of anything.

Just like it would be ludacris to use the average sale price to say house prices are still climbing even in this oil market so expect house prices to be 5% higher again next year.

How long oil prices continue this slide and interest rates will drive home prices. Can't see rates moving much until summer... The oil market, no idea... We'll see how things look in the new year and if companies start laying off people.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Oh, I see then.

So you're an expert until it's time to answer a direct question to support what you've been spewing in thread after thread at which point you deflect to someone else?

Let me give you the gist of what I'm getting at.

All these people you think are going to sell their houses or have listed their houses (needed to drive prices down) are going to have to move somewhere. Unless you can prove there's an equivalent exodus from Calgary there will still be demand for housing. Prices should come down a little as when things change dramatically in the O&G market they always do. But without significant statistics more than just the December listings vs 2013 you have very little evidence of anything.

Just like it would be ludacris to use the average sale price to say house prices are still climbing even in this oil market so expect house prices to be 5% higher again next year.

How long oil prices continue this slide and interest rates will drive home prices. Can't see rates moving much until summer... The oil market, no idea... We'll see how things look in the new year and if companies start laying off people.

Another one of ranchland's wild rants. I love when you go off and steam comes out your ears. Sometimes you make good points but more often than not you let emotions get the best of you.

Take a deep breath.

What exactly are you disagreeing with me about? Are you denying the economic data readily available to us regarding the housing market? I don't think you're that foolish.

Why has it become a buyers market? We can only speculate.

[stampsx2]

^^^there's no sense in debating this with you. It sounds like exiledflamesfan is convinced. The market will crash even though the top financial institutions, real estate experts and government aren't sure where the price of oil is going and what the housing market will look like.

[Flamenspiel]

I'd have to take any internet comments on the direction of the market with a grain of salt. Those looking to buy will talk the market down, those looking to sell will talk it up, and those in the middle(agents) will say its balanced or a slight trend and keep away from any extremes.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by heep223

OP: definitely look at prices as $/sq ft. It shocks me how many people just talk about housing prices in general without giving consideration to the size of the house. Keep in mind sq ft doesn't include the basement so if it's developed, the $/sq ft should be higher compared to a similar house with undeveloped basement. And obviously renovated places are going to cost much more vs. original.

This will give you apples to apples comparison.

For example original houses in my neighbourhood go for around $400 to $425/sq ft while the same house but newly renovated go from $525-$600/ sq ft.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just for kicks, I did this exercises for about ~20 properties in Altadore.

The single detached home prices /sq foot are over the place, but the duples'x seem to be around $485/sq feet. However, I sorted my search by price, and I have only done the cheaper 20 listing, this $/sq ft is increasing

It is interesting, because it lets me see which places might be over or under valued, and then I can really take a detailed look at these places and see what I may be missing.

It is also teaching me what is valued. For example, there is a cheap (in terms of $/sq ft) single family home in Altadore. When I looked into it, the only thing 'wrong' with it is that is shares a property limit with 50 av... so I am assuming that the busy traffic brought down its price.

Also Realtor's - not mentioned your house is a duplex anywhere on your MLS listing site, and taking a picture of the building so it cuts off the duplex portion of the building..... so lame. For example listing C3646252 states it is 'single family', a 'house', 'freehold' and no where a 'duplex'. The last picture shows it is one, but still.... Or am I missing something?

[Kavvy]

Has anyone seen this site before? Sort of interesting.

http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html