Calgary Housing Prices Comparables

[Kavvy]

Good day CP,

I apologize if this is the wrong sub-form for this post. I am unsure if all housing items should be placed in Realtor1's sub-form, or if we can post here. If this is the wrong location - Mods, please move it?

I will buy a place in 2015 and I would like to create a database which provides me a method of measuring the %change in housing prices by community.

The questions I have for CP are:

• Does this data already exist?
• If you were comping this yourself, would you add/remove any fields to my below list?
• Is $/sqft a good way of measuring housing prices gains/loss? Just using total price seems a little silly to me.
• Is this an exercise in futility i.e. is there a better way to get what I am looking for?

The fields I was going to compile myself are listed below. Ideally, my goal was to include 2 homes per community per type of home to serve as a benchmark. The communities would only include communities I am interested in. I would look at duplex and standalone homes as separate benchmarks.

The fields are:

1. Community
2. Square Footage
3. MLS Listed Price
4. Sold Price (I don't think I have access to this data)
5. Duplex, Condo, Townhouse, Stand Alone home
6. $/sqfoot (calculateed from MLS listed price)

Edit: I never said thank you Thanks for any comments! Happy Holidays, stay safe during your travels!

[lorenavedon]

personally, the only factor I used to determine comps is sold listings. What I find funny and a common trend among selling agents now a days is to use current active listings as comps. Using tactics like, "this is the only available listing in this area at this price". Or, "look at these other active listings that are much more expensive" (because they're so over priced nobody is ever going to buy them). Right now there is a stalemate between stubborn sellers that still think oil is at $140/bbl and buyers that are sick of paying ridiculous prices for a piece of land in the middle of the prairies.

[CaptainYooh]

Kavvy, the data you want to see is available and accessible easily by any licensed realtor who pays a fee to have access to it. Just pick a realtor, specify the criteria and he/she would produce a database report for you, not a big deal at all.

[Calgary14]

As mentioned above any realtor would have access to this information. I would focus on the sold price, not the list price or current listings. The sold price best shows what someone is willing to pay. Anyone can list their home at any price (ridiculous or not) but the real indicator of the market is what it sells for

[Ahuch]

Have to work through a realtor for this information. The game is a little rigged

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

personally, the only factor I used to determine comps is sold listings. What I find funny and a common trend among selling agents now a days is to use current active listings as comps. Using tactics like, "this is the only available listing in this area at this price". Or, "look at these other active listings that are much more expensive" (because they're so over priced nobody is ever going to buy them). Right now there is a stalemate between stubborn sellers that still think oil is at $140/bbl and buyers that are sick of paying ridiculous prices for a piece of land in the middle of the prairies.

House prices are still high because pricing drops don't happen overnight. The housing market is expected to be flat in 2015 because of continued migration. Even in bust years Calgary still see's growth. Imo, i don't think housing will start loseing value until oil prices stay low for at least a year.

If you're looking for 20% drops in the average house prices, it would take a lot to happen.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

House prices are still high because pricing drops don't happen overnight. The housing market is expected to be flat in 2015 because of continued migration. Even in bust years Calgary still see's growth. Imo, i don't think housing will start loseing value until oil prices stay low for at least a year.

If you're looking for 20% drops in the average house prices, it would take a lot to happen.

This is false. Housing prices have never stayed flat in previous busts.

Expect to see a 10-20% drop in housing prices during this bust, just like every other bust we've had.

The housing prices have already started reacting to current market conditions.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

This is false. Housing prices have never stayed flat in previous busts.

Expect to see a 10-20% drop in housing prices during this bust, just like every other bust we've had.

The housing prices have already started reacting to current market conditions.

So to be clear you're expecting a 10-20% drop in average house prices in Calgary this upcoming year?

[Travis Munroe]

A 10-20% drop is beyond ridiculous.
Granted it's an opinion but one that doesn't seem to have much basis. My prediction is a 5% drop as a absolute worst case scenario and a 3% gain as the best case scenario. I'm not sure what EFF means by housing prices are already reacting because it's wayyy to early to take note of such thing. Give it another couple months before you can be sure.
Kavvy, feel free to send me an email with the criteria you want and I can help you out.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

A 10-20% drop is beyond ridiculous.
Granted it's an opinion but one that doesn't seem to have much basis. My prediction is a 5% drop as a absolute worst case scenario and a 3% gain as the best case scenario. I'm not sure what EFF means by housing prices are already reacting because it's wayyy to early to take note of such thing. Give it another couple months before you can be sure.
Kavvy, feel free to send me an email with the criteria you want and I can help you out.

Really? "Beyond ridiculous"? Let me guess. Your only argument is " it's different this time "

Ironically the housing market is following a similar path as the global oil market. A glut of supply and decreased demand. Which of course leads to lower prices. We are already ~2% down from the peak of June 2014. Hell it's not reaching to predict prices will be down 5% from the peak by spring.

Historically, during the 80s bust we saw a 38% drop in prices from peak to trough, and during the 08/09 bust we saw a 17.8% decline.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...ales-timeline/

It's gonna be a rough year for everyone. Real estate is not gonna somehow avoid the economic reality of the province and come out unscathed. To suggest so is disingenuous

[Kavvy]

Merry Christmas!

Thank you for all the replies. Excited flames fan and others, I have been reading your passionate housing price debate in 2-3 of threads. Would you mind keeping this one on topic?

Thank you!

-Kavvy

[Flames in 07]

If you like can you mention why you want to look at percentage change by community? I sense a flaw or two in what you are doin but want to make sure understand exactly what you are tying to analyze.

Also, I might suggest that people forecasting future value of real estate really shouldn't. There are so many variables, and most of those are poorly understood so why try.

[normtwofinger]

Travis, what's your basis for such an optimistic prediction for prices next year? Just curious.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

If you like can you mention why you want to look at percentage change by community? I sense a flaw or two in what you are doin but want to make sure understand exactly what you are tying to analyze.

Also, I might suggest that people forecasting future value of real estate really shouldn't. There are so many variables, and most of those are poorly understood so why try.

Truthfully, I only want this data for a benchmark, not future values, even though that is an interesting sidebar.

Basically, like others on here I am expecting a bit of a fall in Calgary real estate for 2015 (which I may or may not be wrong). I am hoping to have a measurable benchmark to help me aid in my purchasing decision, and to measure the fall - if one does occur.

I am a data guy, I like analysis and looking at different ways to learn from data to aid me in investments and life. I am just wondering, before I start this, if it will be useful.

Truthfully - if I buy a place in 2015, I would like to know how much more/less it cost me then if I bought in 2014, even if that is useless information .

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Truthfully, I only want this data for a benchmark, not future values, even though that is an interesting sidebar.

Basically, like others on here I am expecting a bit of a fall in Calgary real estate for 2015 (which I may or may not be wrong). I am hoping to have a measurable benchmark to help me aid in my purchasing decision, and to measure the fall - if one does occur.

I am a data guy, I like analysis and looking at different ways to learn from data to aid me in investments and life. I am just wondering, before I start this, if it will be useful.

Truthfully - if I buy a place in 2015, I would like to know how much more/less it cost me then if I bought in 2014, even if that is useless information .

ok so based on that I think you'll have two problems. The first is that your sample size will be too small because you are dividing by community. Each community isn't homogeneous and your data dump will assume this. Any given community could have the type of homes be skewed over a short period of time like a year (btw time is maybe a field you should consider as well).

The other is that it feels like you are holding square footage as the golden standard in your data, however that is just one variable, you need to know if the basement is developed in each place, its age - and in older neighborhoods you'd need to know about upkeep and renos and size of lot. I'm sure there are other variables, thats just what comes to mind right now.

I think the main thing history will teach you is when comparing similar houses, what kind of value people put on different areas/communities and you can measure that vs how you value them yourself. Even that has limited value because at the end of the day, all you can do is consider current listings, compare them to each other and decide on what holds the best value for you.

[Husky]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Really? "Beyond ridiculous"? Let me guess. Your only argument is " it's different this time "

Ironically the housing market is following a similar path as the global oil market. A glut of supply and decreased demand. Which of course leads to lower prices. We are already ~2% down from the peak of June 2014. Hell it's not reaching to predict prices will be down 5% from the peak by spring.

Historically, during the 80s bust we saw a 38% drop in prices from peak to trough, and during the 08/09 bust we saw a 17.8% decline.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...ales-timeline/

It's gonna be a rough year for everyone. Real estate is not gonna somehow avoid the economic reality of the province and come out unscathed. To suggest so is disingenuous

There's no supply glut for real estate. If anything its the opposite for Calgary. Look at rental occupancy. And yes both eras you mention were different. 80s rates were through the roofs and in 08 it was a macro issue for credit freeze. This go around I expect a drop but not to your predictions. If it happens, I'll be smiling.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Husky

There's no supply glut for real estate. If anything its the opposite for Calgary. Look at rental occupancy. And yes both eras you mention were different. 80s rates were through the roofs and in 08 it was a macro issue for credit freeze. This go around I expect a drop but not to your predictions. If it happens, I'll be smiling.

The rental market and the for sale market are not the same thing.

Number of for sale listings up 40% from same time last year. Which is a glut of listings.
http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

Rental vacancy already increasing as of Oct. Couldn't find any recent numbers but I assume vacancy has only increased since then.
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/calg...port-1.2875080

2015 will be a very interesting year for the real estate market here in Calgary.

[heep223]

OP: definitely look at prices as $/sq ft. It shocks me how many people just talk about housing prices in general without giving consideration to the size of the house. Keep in mind sq ft doesn't include the basement so if it's developed, the $/sq ft should be higher compared to a similar house with undeveloped basement. And obviously renovated places are going to cost much more vs. original.

This will give you apples to apples comparison.

For example original houses in my neighbourhood go for around $400 to $425/sq ft while the same house but newly renovated go from $525-$600/ sq ft.


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[ken0042]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

The rental market and the for sale market are not the same thing.

Maybe not directly, however each has an effect on the other. The shortage of rentals keeps rental rates high, which in turn pushes more renters into buying. Both have to deal with inventory of homes for people to live in; you either have to live in a place that you own, or a place that you rent.

Just to give some credibility into Travis' prediction; he was bang on with his prediction last March as to how the rest of 2014 would go. Following his advice saved me at least $15K.

I do think we will see numbers of houses for sale drop, as I think people were testing the market. I know one of my former neighbours did that; put his house for sale after seeing what I got for my place. He then took his house off the market and is still living there.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by ken0042

Maybe not directly, however each has an effect on the other. The shortage of rentals keeps rental rates high, which in turn pushes more renters into buying. Both have to deal with inventory of homes for people to live in; you either have to live in a place that you own, or a place that you rent.

Just to give some credibility into Travis' prediction; he was bang on with his prediction last March as to how the rest of 2014 would go. Following his advice saved me at least $15K.

I do think we will see numbers of houses for sale drop, as I think people were testing the market. I know one of my former neighbours did that; put his house for sale after seeing what I got for my place. He then took his house off the market and is still living there.

All these people "waiting it out" for the possibility of lower prices. When oil starts reversing trends, you get another housing boom with everybody entering the market at once.