Rebuild Year 1 Analysis (so far)

[Phil Russell]

I am hopeful that this is the bottom-out year. I don't think we make the playoffs for likely two more seasons but I can't see next year as worse in terms of wins. If the team continues to buy-in and the goaltending steadies we will not miss the shedded vets as much as many think.

[jg13]

Originally Posted by FBI

I've actually been pretty happy with rebuild year 1 so far.

Positives:
-Hartley has players on board for hard working play, winning culture, and to some extent: accountability
-Backlund becoming the player we were hoping for and showing that he is an important part of the rebuild
-Burke at the helm should hopefully make some good moves (I'm still on the fence about Burke but he generally gets positive feedback)
-Gio showing he was an excellent choice for captain, having career year and potential Olympian
-Brodie and Bouma really coming into their own
-Moneyhands, don't need to say much more
-Our ahl team playing great and some of our future pieces shining (Reinhart, Knight, Granlund, Ortio)
-Our round 1 picks plus gaudreau plus gillies dominating
-Russell being a big surprise
-Goalies slowly coming around, doing not that bad at all for first year rebuild

Negatives:
-Baertschi, probably not handled the greatest despite putting up points and now taking his time in finding his game in the minors. Really hope he bounces back for Rebuild Year 2
-Dead weight vets: Wideman (what happened to this guy), Stempniak, David jones, galiardi, all majorly underperforming, hoping to ditch them for some assets

Going ahead I am inclined to believe that rebuild year 2 we will actually improve in the standings.
Continued improvement for some of our breakout players + shedding of dead weight + hunger of new potential big time players for us = Better than bottom 3 in the league.

Stempniak is getting paid 2.5 mill and putting up 0.5 ppg in my opinion that is acceptable.

Strongly agree with the rest of the negatives Jones and Galiardi have been terrible and Wideman looks way overpaid right now

[FBI]

I guess Stempniak is coming back around now but that 2 pts in 20 games streak really soured me on him. Went into a shell after he got his teeth knocked out.

Good guy but best of luck to you.

[Phanuthier]

Count me in as another who thinks things will get worse for at least a little more before they get better. It'll be our "sophemore" year and we'll lose some key guys.... but after a year or two, I can see things turn around.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Phil Russell

I am hopeful that this is the bottom-out year. I don't think we make the playoffs for likely two more seasons but I can't see next year as worse in terms of wins. If the team continues to buy-in and the goaltending steadies we will not miss the shedded vets as much as many think.

I don't want to see the Flames finish so low in the standings, and not for more than one year either, but if we're going to bottom-out, then next year is the year to do it.

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Next year we'll be worse. Sophmore jinx in terms of team. Monahan will struggle, more rookies, Ramo will falter more, Giordano will be bit worse.

In the end we're still tied for 3rd worst in the league. I guess in a re-build things like "Monahan being good, Gio potentially Olympian" sound nice but even watching them play most nights is not fun.

Can't wait to get back into playoff talks soon enough in coming years.

Missed the last 5 games did you?

Originally Posted by FBI

I've actually been pretty happy with rebuild year 1 so far.

Positives:
-Hartley has players on board for hard working play, winning culture, and to some extent: accountability
-Backlund becoming the player we were hoping for and showing that he is an important part of the rebuild
-Burke at the helm should hopefully make some good moves (I'm still on the fence about Burke but he generally gets positive feedback)
-Gio showing he was an excellent choice for captain, having career year and potential Olympian
-Brodie and Bouma really coming into their own
-Moneyhands, don't need to say much more
-Our ahl team playing great and some of our future pieces shining (Reinhart, Knight, Granlund, Ortio)
-Our round 1 picks plus gaudreau plus gillies dominating
-Russell being a big surprise
-Goalies slowly coming around, doing not that bad at all for first year rebuild

Negatives:
-Baertschi, probably not handled the greatest despite putting up points and now taking his time in finding his game in the minors. Really hope he bounces back for Rebuild Year 2
-Dead weight vets: Wideman (what happened to this guy), Stempniak, David jones, galiardi, all majorly underperforming, hoping to ditch them for some assets

Going ahead I am inclined to believe that rebuild year 2 we will actually improve in the standings.
Continued improvement for some of our breakout players + shedding of dead weight + hunger of new potential big time players for us = Better than bottom 3 in the league.

What's the problem with Wideman? He's on pace for his best offensive year in 5 years. His D leaves a little to be desired (although I don't think he's inept as others in this regard) but we knew this about him all along. Jones is over paid but I'd still rather have him than Tanguay.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

The Flames have the worst goaltending situation in the entire NHL. Only Tampa even comes close.

If goaltending is the weakest aspect of a team that is ranked 25th+ in a 30 team league, then the goaltending is bad, regardless of the stage of rebuild.

Ramo is playing like a back-up. Wih time, he will likely improve into a below-average starter. Berra has been a dumpster fire at the NHL level. There are only 2 real prospects in the system, and even *IF* either of them actually has the ability to be impact players in the NHL, they are both probably still 5+ years away.

I'm not saying Karri Ramo is a bad person, or that the rebuild is a failure. I'm not even actually worried about goaltending. I'm just saying that as it stands, goaltending is a problem, and with 8-10 year post-draft timelines being common for NHL goalies, we will almost certainly need to see outside talent brought in to address it.

But it does need to be addressed, because "not bad at all" is the exact opposite of how I would describe the current goaltending position of the Flames.

[Da_Chief]

Tampa has goaltending issues?

[automaton 3]

Ramo is 11-10-4/ 2.66/ .908 on a team that is -41 in goal differential and tied for 28th in the league.

I'd say those are pretty decent numbers all things considered.

[Scoutski]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

The Flames have the worst goaltending situation in the entire NHL. Only Tampa even comes close.

I think you might be a year late on that analysis...

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Tampa has goaltending issues?

I thought I'd heard that Bishop was out for the season after being hurt recently. I just checked and this seems to have been incorrect. So disregard that. My bad.

[Scoutski]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I thought I'd heard that Bishop was out for the season after being hurt recently. I just checked and this seems to have been incorrect. So disregard that. My bad.

That is very fair actually, if Bishop were out for the season, they would be in A LOT of trouble as their current backup, Anders Lindback, has a horrible statline compared to Bishop.

# GOALIE GPI GS MIN GAA W L OT SO SA GA SV% G A PIM
30 BEN BISHOP 41 41 2332 1.98 27 7 4 4 1148 77 .933 0 2 4
39 ANDERS LINDBACK 18 14 1003 3.23 5 11 1 0 451 54 .880 0 0 2

Bishop
GP 41
GAA 1.98
SV% .933

Lindback
GP 18
GAA 3.23
SV% .880

[The Hendog]

Wideman started the year off pretty good and I think he will rebound eventually even if he is struggling lately (can already start to see a rebound in the last couple of games).

I think people forget how hard it is to recovery from a broken hand, especially for guys like Wideman who are more of the skilled d variety. I was at the game when he busted it on a blocked shot and I knew right away he was hurt and it was going take awhile for him to be back to normal; I say give him more time.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Scoutski

I think you might be a year late on that analysis...

This is exactly why Im not worried about Calgary's current goaltending situation.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by FBI

-Dead weight vets: Wideman (what happened to this guy), Stempniak, David jones, galiardi, all majorly underperforming, hoping to ditch them for some assets

I don't understand all the David Jones hate. Sure, he's way overpaid but who cares about that right now. He is a middling power winger who fits in nicely on any 3rd line in the league and he's made a ton of good plays this year. He's +/- 0 on a terrible team and yes part of that is matchups, but still.

I think the David Jones hate should be directed towards Cammy. Guy seems like a great pro (ie. fitness and discipline) but man has he been brutal this year. How does he not make your list of majorly underperforming vets?

[Sylvanfan]

Realistically the team is 10 months into the so called rebuild. 1 year ago, they were getting the season started, and the Flames were still publically claiming that they planned to compete for a playoff spot.

A situation like the Flames probably needs a 5-6 year cycle until it may produce a consistent good result. Colorado has had 5 drafts since their first bottom out, and in that time they had 1 playoff appearance, 1 season of sort of being in the race, and 2 others of top 2 picks. Now they may be finally be in that mode where they should have a good competitive team. St.Louis showed a similar trajectory coming out of the lockout getting two top 5 picks a season in the playoffs and come competitive hockey and now are about to put forth a third consecutive season as a top level team. It's likely a similar path back to relevancy for the Flames, although they didn't bottom out to a top 5 pick to start off, but it's likely 3 more drafts added to last year before the team would realistically find it's way back out of NHL obscurity. Really it's going to be 3-4 more years until those California teams show enough decline to let them get back being in the mix.

[djsFlames]

Somehow I don't think it'll take until age 27-28 for Monahan, Gaudreau, Poirier, Klimchuk, Baertschi to become high end NHLers (if they don't bust) that can lead this team to a potential 1st rounds win. Monahan for example looks well ahead of schedule and I'd say two seasons from now is knocking on the door to being a bonafide top 6 center.

I say our core of kids will be around 24-25 (Backlund's current age) when they get settled into the league and the team breaks into the playoffs. So approx 4-5 years. They'll take a round before 8 years though, I'm sure. The rebuild would have to be a flop for that to happen, or they'd all have to be very late bloomers.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Ramo is playing like a back-up. Wih time, he will likely improve into a below-average starter.

I dunno, in terms of EV sv% he's pretty close to average in the League right now. I don't think he'll ever be anything special but I buy him as being a league average starter over a full-season.

[TjRhythmic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is no question that the young guys are making large contributions to the team at this point.

However, those guys are mostly not 1st year rookies. Backlund is 24 and in what - his 5th season? Brodie is 23 and been here for 3 years. Russell is 26. Bouma is 23.

All of these guys (other than Monahan) have been developed to the point where they are now making full-scale contributions.

And they are surrounded by vets. You might argue that they are playing better than the vets, but you can't discount the stabilizing contributions that those vets are making.

Take some of those vets out and insert more 1st year rookies and the team is not going to be as good. It just isn't fair to expect it to be.

The team is going to continue to get younger. Next year is going to be tough.

I think with the young guys at the start of the year there was still that seed of doubt whether or not they belonged in the NHL... so the vets carried them. Now the kids are believing they belong, and can play well in the NHL, and the improvements are coming faster and they believe they can win in this league which is huge.

The mind is a powerful thing, and using the players up north as an example, I don't think they actually believe they can win in this league so no matter what they do it always comes up futile.. losing was acceptable, and the rebuild was always the excuse.

With the Flames, they don't make excuses, and I don't care about draft position, I want to see this team go out and try to win every game... build that work ethic, the mindset, that belief in the younger players that they are good enough, and belong in this league, and most importantly they can win in this league.

Next year might be tougher then this year, or it might be better, to far ahead to make any real prediction... all I know is that it should be fun.

[clancy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Realistically the team is 10 months into the so called rebuild. 1 year ago, they were getting the season started, and the Flames were still publically claiming that they planned to compete for a playoff spot.

A situation like the Flames probably needs a 5-6 year cycle until it may produce a consistent good result. Colorado has had 5 drafts since their first bottom out, and in that time they had 1 playoff appearance, 1 season of sort of being in the race, and 2 others of top 2 picks. Now they may be finally be in that mode where they should have a good competitive team. St.Louis showed a similar trajectory coming out of the lockout getting two top 5 picks a season in the playoffs and come competitive hockey and now are about to put forth a third consecutive season as a top level team. It's likely a similar path back to relevancy for the Flames, although they didn't bottom out to a top 5 pick to start off, but it's likely 3 more drafts added to last year before the team would realistically find it's way back out of NHL obscurity. Really it's going to be 3-4 more years until those California teams show enough decline to let them get back being in the mix.

however, a generational talent, like McDavid, can accelerate things.