Rebuild Year 1 Analysis (so far)

[FBI]

I've actually been pretty happy with rebuild year 1 so far.

Positives:
-Hartley has players on board for hard working play, winning culture, and to some extent: accountability
-Backlund becoming the player we were hoping for and showing that he is an important part of the rebuild
-Burke at the helm should hopefully make some good moves (I'm still on the fence about Burke but he generally gets positive feedback)
-Gio showing he was an excellent choice for captain, having career year and potential Olympian
-Brodie and Bouma really coming into their own
-Moneyhands, don't need to say much more
-Our ahl team playing great and some of our future pieces shining (Reinhart, Knight, Granlund, Ortio)
-Our round 1 picks plus gaudreau plus gillies dominating
-Russell being a big surprise
-Goalies slowly coming around, doing not that bad at all for first year rebuild

Negatives:
-Baertschi, probably not handled the greatest despite putting up points and now taking his time in finding his game in the minors. Really hope he bounces back for Rebuild Year 2
-Dead weight vets: Wideman (what happened to this guy), Stempniak, David jones, galiardi, all majorly underperforming, hoping to ditch them for some assets

Going ahead I am inclined to believe that rebuild year 2 we will actually improve in the standings.
Continued improvement for some of our breakout players + shedding of dead weight + hunger of new potential big time players for us = Better than bottom 3 in the league.

[Wastedyouth]

Mmmm Kool-aid is delicious!

[btimbit]

Step one on the road to renewed success, and probably the most important, is work ethic and for the players to buy in. Mission accomplished so far. Trade deadline will be the next big tell

[Vinny01]

Let's see what happens at the deadline to fully evaluate 1 year considering timid around that time the Flames started down the road to rebuild. Things are going well but I would like to see how many assets Burke moves out.

Best positive is Feaster is gone as he was not the right guy to rebuild the team

[FBI]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Mmmm Kool-aid is delicious!

Unthanks.

[Da_Chief]

Next year we'll be worse. Sophmore jinx in terms of team. Monahan will struggle, more rookies, Ramo will falter more, Giordano will be bit worse.

In the end we're still tied for 3rd worst in the league. I guess in a re-build things like "Monahan being good, Gio potentially Olympian" sound nice but even watching them play most nights is not fun.

Can't wait to get back into playoff talks soon enough in coming years.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Mmmm Kool-aid is delicious!

I'm curious to know your analysis, good sir.

[CaptainCrunch]

Yeah two will be worse especially with the Flames moving vets for rebuild pieces. The Flames will have to sign some vets for next year in order to stay above the cap floor. But the vets we bring in will probably be third or fourth liners.

On top of that we're going to see the next wave of kids moving up the lineup.

I would expect that the Flames drop down in the standings next year, then jump up the year after that and hopefully compete for a playoff spot in year four.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Mmmm Kool-aid is delicious!

Great contributions as always.

FBI I'd have to agree with all of your points.

Biggest disappointment has been Baertchi and I hope he can bounce back after a summer of strength training. I feel thats the only thing holding him back. From what I've heard he's starting to engage physically in the AHL which is what he'll need to do as he can't get by on skill alone.

Beyond excited for Gaudreau to turn pro near the end of this year. The kid is a human highlight reel and I drool uncontrollably when I picture him and Monahan matched up together. Put a D.Jones on the right wing or whoever can make room for these guys and the flames have a deadly scoring line.

I do prefer the vets playing poor over the rookies, but it's definitely not helping the trade value. Stempniak seems to be on one of his streaks, Galiardi is ideally a 4th liner for us moving forward and Wideman has been putting up some points the last few games with limited minutes. Just hope Cammy can put up some goals to increase his trade value as well.

Considering how many potential AHL callups we have and how well our young guys have been playing, it's reasonable to think we'll have a better team next year even after shaving off a few vets.

[Tyler]

How realistic is it that meeting the cap floor will be our #1 challenge in rebuild year 2?

[ForeverFlameFan]

Truculence!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Yeah two will be worse especially with the Flames moving vets for rebuild pieces. The Flames will have to sign some vets for next year in order to stay above the cap floor. But the vets we bring in will probably be third or fourth liners.

On top of that we're going to see the next wave of kids moving up the lineup.

I would expect that the Flames drop down in the standings next year, then jump up the year after that and hopefully compete for a playoff spot in year four.

If we need to bring in vets then why trade the vets we have now. I think other than trading Cammellari to a desperate playoff team there isn't much to trade. I'd rather keep Hudler, Stempniak, Galliardi and Stajan (which we already have kept) then to bring in some vets. We have a 4th line already in McGrattan, Westgarth and Bouma.

[troutman]

Why evaluate players that won't be here at the end of the rebuild?

Get more picks Brian.

[Buff]

Here is how I'm predicting or hoping things will play out:

Year 1: Bottom 5 finish. Well on track to do so.
Year 2: One or two positions lower than year 1.
Year 3: Bottom 7
Year 4: Tease for playoff spot but still bottom 12 in the end.
Year 5: Might make playoffs, but barely, and don't make much noise in 1st round if they do
Year 6: Make playoffs. Scare 1st round opponents but it ends in round 1.
Year 7: Win a playoff round, still not ready, but needed that experience to grow as a team
Years 8-100: Always a top team, some years stronger than others, win a Stanley Cup here and there, eventually having plenty more Cups than the Oilers (5) and Canucks (0) combined by the year 2114 (probably reaching that goal well before year 100).

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Buff

Here is how I'm predicting or hoping things will play out:

Year 1: Bottom 5 finish. Well on track to do so.
Year 2: One or two positions lower than year 1.
Year 3: Bottom 7
Year 4: Tease for playoff spot but still bottom 12 in the end.
Year 5: Might make playoffs, but barely, and don't make much noise in 1st round if they do
Year 6: Make playoffs. Scare 1st round opponents but it ends in round 1.
Year 7: Win a playoff round, still not ready, but needed that experience to grow as a team
Years 8-100: Always a top team, some years stronger than others, win a Stanley Cup here and there, eventually having plenty more Cups than the Oilers (5) and Canucks (0) combined by the year 2114 (probably reaching that goal well before year 100).

Probably a reasonable prediction (up to year 8 at least), but I'm personally hoping to starting competing for the playoffs in year 3. It might not be very likely, but I'd like to think by then we'll have a pretty solid core and possibly some playoff caliber goaltending.

[hummdeedoo]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Yeah two will be worse especially with the Flames moving vets for rebuild pieces. The Flames will have to sign some vets for next year in order to stay above the cap floor. But the vets we bring in will probably be third or fourth liners.

On top of that we're going to see the next wave of kids moving up the lineup.

I would expect that the Flames drop down in the standings next year, then jump up the year after that and hopefully compete for a playoff spot in year four.

I think this might happen - but I see no reason why this team might actually do better in the standings next year.

At this point I don't see the core group of veterans pushing this team forward - Early in the season it was mostly them (Hudler,Cammy, Stempniak, Gio, Monahan).

It's the young/new guys now (Backlund, Monahan - still,Bouma, Ramo,Russell, Brodie,Gio,Colborne). Hulder's been ok. If Glencross is back next year, I expect a rebound year from him. If we are missing Cammy and Stempniak I don't see how we really miss them.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by hummdeedoo

I think this might happen - but I see no reason why this team might actually do better in the standings next year.

At this point I don't see the core group of veterans pushing this team forward - Early in the season it was mostly them (Hudler,Cammy, Stempniak, Gio, Monahan).

It's the young/new guys now (Backlund, Monahan - still,Bouma, Ramo,Russell, Brodie,Gio,Colborne). Hulder's been ok. If Glencross is back next year, I expect a rebound year from him. If we are missing Cammy and Stempniak I don't see how we really miss them.

That's what I was thinking. Are we really going to miss Stempniak cammy and galiardi that much? Like you said the young guys are driving the team right now and I think it's going to be some addition by subtraction there.

A healthy glencross will certainly replace what Stempniak has done this year.

[GreenLantern]

Good summary, I agree that so far this year has been a good step forward in the rebuild. The next phase is translating the pending UFA veterans into future assets.. hopefully that part is handled well and the season will be a success in the eyes of a rebuild. Of course 90% of CP will hate all the trades as they expect we are getting a greater return for Cammy than Iggy and Bouwmeester combined.. but nothing we can do about that.

The only rain on this parade for me is Beartchi. I was really hoping this would be a great year for him. Increased ice time, responsibility, growing as the season goes on and culminating as the deadline approaches and more vets are sent out. Obviously that isn't how it worked out. However, the silver lining of this was Backlund stepping into that role and proving he belongs in this rebuild as a major piece. It has been a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time since the Flames could say they had depth at center.. but given what has happened this year between him, Moneyhands and Stajan (gulp) combined with the way the farm is playing, things are definitely looking up. Add all of that on to the fact we look to be finishing in that 4ish slot for the draft (barring a lottery miracle) we should be adding another great young center to the mix as well.

[Enoch Root]

There is no question that the young guys are making large contributions to the team at this point.

However, those guys are mostly not 1st year rookies. Backlund is 24 and in what - his 5th season? Brodie is 23 and been here for 3 years. Russell is 26. Bouma is 23.

All of these guys (other than Monahan) have been developed to the point where they are now making full-scale contributions.

And they are surrounded by vets. You might argue that they are playing better than the vets, but you can't discount the stabilizing contributions that those vets are making.

Take some of those vets out and insert more 1st year rookies and the team is not going to be as good. It just isn't fair to expect it to be.

The team is going to continue to get younger. Next year is going to be tough.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FBI

Going ahead I am inclined to believe that rebuild year 2 we will actually improve in the standings.

I don't buy that... it's far more likely that we drop in the standings into McDavid & Eichel territory then it is that the team improves. We're still in the process of moving current talent for futures and all the rebuilding teams below us are further along in that process and the teams immediately above us aren't at the point of the competative cycle where they'd blow it up.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

However, those guys are mostly not 1st year rookies. Backlund is 24 and in what - his 5th season? Brodie is 23 and been here for 3 years. Russell is 26. Bouma is 23.

Yes the young guys stepping up now are the guys that will be our veterans when the team hits it's next period of contention. Which is itself a very good sign for the long-term health of the club.