Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Slava]

308 has his final seat projection as:

Wildrose: 43
PCs: 39
NDP: 5
Liberals and others: 0

His site gives a range, and the maximum seats he figures for each party are:

Wildrose: 62
PCs: 62
NDP: 8
Liberals: 3

All others zero. This doesn't add up to 87, naturally because this is what he figures is the most each party could muster.

[GP_Matt]

Judging by our poll it looks like we can expect a Wildrose sweep.

My predictions
Wildrose: 44
PCs: 37
NDP: 4
Liberals: 2

[mykalberta]

MYKs AB Election Prediction:

NDP 4 (+2)
LIB 17 (+9)
WRA 31(+27)
PC 35(-38)

LIB/NDP vote%incr<5% (LIB could be in 20s if WRA is better than expected)

[Fire]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

MYKs AB Election Prediction:

NDP 4 (+2)
LIB 17 (+9)
WRA 31(+27)
PC 35(-38)

LIB/NDP vote%incr<5% (LIB could be in 20s if WRA is better than expected)

I thought Slava was optimistic for the Liberals.

[mykalberta]

I went through all the ridings last night - I was so excited after the Nucks loss that I couldnt sleep so I thought going through ridings would put me to sleep

There are a lot where the PC just barely won and any riding where the Liberals got over 30% last election imo is in play for them as they are highly unlikely to lose votes to the PC or WRA.

If the WRA do get majority type support then the Libs could easily get to the 20s. If Raj didnt have the Trudeau stink associated with his party he would be much better off. In classic PC fashion they forced a highly future potential electable cosmopolitan leader out.

[Wood]

I have a feeling this is gonna be one of the lowest voter turn-outs in a while

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Wood

I have a feeling this is gonna be one of the lowest voter turn-outs in a while

Huh?

Over province 2008 the average was just over 41%.

I say we hit a minimum of 50% and could be as much as 60%.

[Knalus]

I'm almost more interested in seeing if Calgary Puck is more liberal or conservative than the average voter this election. I know the more vocal members of this particular thread tend to be more liberal than the average (at least it seems that way to me).

[Yeah_Baby]

I'm so hip the party I voted for isn't even in the poll.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I would say the average CP poster is very conservative, but maybe that's just my perception. It's hard to say because many people read and don't post.

Anyway, my predictions:

WR: 40
PC: 41
Lib: 3
NDP: 3

I base this mostly on my hunch that the WR is not as strong in Calgary as some seem to think--they'll do very well in rural areas, but get badly beaten in Edmonton, and lose some close ones in Calgary.

The NDP will get 3 in Edmonton. Sherman will lose his seat. Calgary will elect 3 Liberals: David Swann, Kent Hehr and Bruce Payne.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I do wonder if the great weather today won't have a negative effect on turnout, especially amongst the younger crowd. I know more than a few of my friends who'd rather hit the patio after work than the voting booth.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

Nothing to be sorry about. Its about their concentration of votes, not the province-wide percentage. Remember how the Reform would get 60-70 seats with about 12% national support? Same principle. Thats and its a guess with some wishful thinking mixed in. Realistically if Smith loses her seat though I'll be thrilled.

That's the problem. They carried 34% of the vote in both Calgary and Edmonton in 2008 and 14-16% rurally. Right now the most optimistic poll (Angus Reid) has them at 14% in Calgary, 16% in Edmonton and 11% in the rural areas. Their concentration of losses coincides with their concentration of votes in 2008. Hehr's internal numbers suggests he might live another term, and if we are unfortunate, Sherman might as well. But other than that? Just don't see it.

I think that if the NDP and Liberals combine for 8 seats, it will be a victory for "the left".

As for my prediction. Too much volatility right now with that Insight poll. So this is a "numbers out of my ass" prediction:

Wildrose: 42
PC: 40
NDP: 3
Liberal: 2

Which, really, would be a disgusting result. The worst case for Alberta is the Liberals or NDP holding the balance of power.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Which, really, would be a disgusting result. The worst case for Alberta is the Liberals or NDP holding the balance of power.

Pulling Alberta kicking and screaming into the 21st Century!

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Which, really, would be a disgusting result. The worst case for Alberta is the Liberals or NDP holding the balance of power.

This doesn't make sense. How can a party (NDP/Lib) with no populist support hold the balance of power?

[Senator Clay Davis]

So seeing as this might be a really tight election, what happens if (God forbid) there is a tie tonight? Who becomes premier? Is it Redford by default?

[Cowperson]

I haven't really been following it all that closely.

My formula for voting was going to be that Danielle Smith is hotter than Alison Redford and therefore we should have the more attractive person as Premier.

However, I actually live in the riding she's contesting and I owe John Barlow some favours for his generous editorial support of a local non-profit I volunteer for. Therefore, I am going to have to pee into the wind and vote PC. Nice guy and I can't think of a more deserving person for a $100,000 plus salary and a gold plated pension. A couple of years ago I was talking to him about his career path and this never came up!!

Ovrall, I think there will be some sober second thought at the polls but not enough to change the outcome.

Wildrose: 45
PCs: 36
NDP: 4
Liberals: 2

Cowperson

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by darklord700

This doesn't make sense. How can a party (NDP/Lib) with no populist support how the balance of power?

Two words: Minority Government.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So seeing as this might be a really tight election, what happens if (God forbid) there is a tie tonight? Who becomes premier? Is it Redford by default?

It's not gonna happen. Some PC MLAs will cross floor to WR, guaranteed if that ever happens.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by darklord700

This doesn't make sense. How can a party (NDP/Lib) with no populist support how the balance of power?

Because unless the PCs and Wildrose can work together, the party that forms government would require support of one or both of those parties to pass laws and motions.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Because unless the PCs and Wildrose can work together, the party that forms government would require support of one or both of those parties to pass laws and motions.

So basically we should just do away with First Past the Post