Russia invades Ukraine

[Itse]

Originally Posted by kn

My Siberian mother-in-law, is now convinced that the West started the war in Ukraine, that Putin had no choice but to go in and defend Russians, and that her daughter is going to be abused by Canadians. She even said we should have left our two year old daughter in Russia!

Propaganda is a powerful thing... I’m not even going to try and present an alternative theory of events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

First off, I don't want to tell anyone what they SHOULD do, but I still want to say this;

I do encourage everyone who has a direct connection to Russians in Russia to push back against Russian propaganda. You don't have to get deep into it, and you should avoid getting into fights, just keep repeating basic facts as often as you have the energy.

You can't compete with Kremlin in volume, you're not going to convince anyone over night, but a friendly voice calmly saying the truth can still have a surprisingly big effect over time. Many people outside Russia talking to many people inside Russia can have a big effect over time.

You never know who you can get to come to their senses and when, but all it takes is for that other person to notice one big thing in Russia which Kremlin can't explain but you can.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by blankall

Israel, at the request of Ukraine, has been acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. They've been supplying Ukraine with lots of humanitarian aid, but no weapons, including Iron Dome. If they start providing weapons it would end their role as mediator:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...id-2022-02-25/



Israel also likely fears reprisal from Russia. If Israel gives weapons to Ukraine, Russia gives weapons to Syria and Hezbollah.

Edit: As Snuffleupagus stated, Iron Dome probably wouldn't even work against more sophisticated Russian missiles.

I'm not sure a mediator is going to be important much longer for Ukraine if Russia keeps these types of indiscriminate urban attacks coming. Most of what Russia is using to hit urban centers are not sophisticated hypersonic cruise missiles, just regular old dumb artillery and grad rockets which fly just like a Hamas projectile. Israel claims a 90% success rate for what its worth.

Iron dome and/or Rhinemettal Oerlikon air defense system or something similar would stop alot of incoming rockets and artillery.

[Itse]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian...es-11647206193

Russian Prosecutors Warn Western Companies of Arrests, Asset Seizures
McDonald’s, Coke, P&G and IBM among those warned that leaders could be arrested, trademarks seized

Most of the article is behind a paywall, but here's another article quoting it;

Without using the word "nationalization," Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is in favor of appointing "external" administrators to head such foreign companies in Russia "in order to transfer them to those who want to make them work."

Not surprising and obviously means hard times for people working for those companies in Russia, but oh boy is this ever an incredibly stupid move. All it does in the long run / big picture is burn more bridges and make companies want to get out of Russia even faster, and not announce it before it's done.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Well she's still alive and was in court today. I saw some tweets saying all she got was a fine, which seems unbelievable, but I guess I'll wait for more reliable sources to confirm.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503736887093219331

There's multiple sources saying she's only facing fairly minor charges, and very specifically pointing out they are NOT charging her under that new law which promises years in prison.

This is IMO somewhat significant news, as I can see only two possible reasons for it.

1. The people handling her case decided to not use the new law because they didn't want to, and they had enough independence and guts to make that call.

2. Someone making that decision was worried how the Russians people would react if she got sentenced to years in prison. Which means someone is still genuinely worried about public opinion, and that's an encouraging sign.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Itse

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian...es-11647206193



Most of the article is behind a paywall, but here's another article quoting it;



Not surprising and obviously means hard times for people working for those companies in Russia, but oh boy is this ever an incredibly stupid move. All it does in the long run / big picture is burn more bridges and make companies want to get out of Russia even faster, and not announce it before it's done.

In addition that, I saw something yesterday that Putin is allowing Russian airlines to continue domestic flights with foreign owned planes... A huge majority of planes flown by Russian airlines are leased from foreign companies and valued at ~$10B... By keeping the planes domestically, he prevents the leasing companies from being able to repo the planes... He's effectively facilitated a $10B theft.

Edit - https://fortune.com/2022/03/15/russi...fiscate-theft/

[blankall]

Originally Posted by karl262

I'm not sure a mediator is going to be important much longer for Ukraine if Russia keeps these types of indiscriminate urban attacks coming. Most of what Russia is using to hit urban centers are not sophisticated hypersonic cruise missiles, just regular old dumb artillery and grad rockets which fly just like a Hamas projectile. Israel claims a 90% success rate for what its worth.

Iron dome and/or Rhinemettal Oerlikon air defense system or something similar would stop alot of incoming rockets and artillery.

Mediation will be the key to ending this at some point. Both parties will look for a solution that lets them save face....unless Putin gets taken out.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by you&me

In addition that, I saw something yesterday that Putin is allowing Russian airlines to continue domestic flights with foreign owned planes... A huge majority of planes flown by Russian airlines are leased from foreign companies and valued at ~$10B... By keeping the planes domestically, he prevents the leasing companies from being able to repo the planes... He's effectively facilitated a $10B theft.

Edit - https://fortune.com/2022/03/15/russi...fiscate-theft/

I think I read somewhere that only about half of those planes are leased. So still a huge chunk, but really the bigger issue is maintenance and spare parts. With so many international flights canceled they could probably have made do with what they had left, but only until the planes are up for maintence.

The main maintenance hub for Russian planes was in Germany, and obviously the spare parts are also produced abroad.

So most likely those stolen planes will be stripped for parts to keep other planes running longer.

But yeah, it's another terrible move in desperation.

Russia still has countries that are friendly enough that they could run some mandatory trade through them. Have someone in Pakistan or Kazakhstan buy what you need, then buy it from them for example. But all that is made a lot more difficult if you destroy your reputation as a sane, reliable business partner.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by you&me

In addition that, I saw something yesterday that Putin is allowing Russian airlines to continue domestic flights with foreign owned planes... A huge majority of planes flown by Russian airlines are leased from foreign companies and valued at ~$10B... By keeping the planes domestically, he prevents the leasing companies from being able to repo the planes... He's effectively facilitated a $10B theft.

Edit - https://fortune.com/2022/03/15/russi...fiscate-theft/

I'm assuming they won't fly for too long without being able to get parts for them.

Ah. what Itse just said.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Itse

I think I read somewhere that only about half of those planes are leased. So still a huge chunk, but really the bigger issue is maintenance and spare parts. With so many international flights canceled they could probably have made do with what they had left, but only until the planes are up for maintence.

The main maintenance hub for Russian planes was in Germany, and obviously the spare parts are also produced abroad.

So most likely those stolen planes will be stripped for parts to keep other planes running longer.

But yeah, it's another terrible move in desperation.

Russia still has countries that are friendly enough that they could run some mandatory trade through them. Have someone in Pakistan or Kazakhstan buy what you need, then buy it from them for example. But all that is made a lot more difficult if you destroy your reputation as a sane, reliable business partner.

That's something the article goes into; because of sanctions, Airbus and Boeing cannot provide parts to the Russian airlines for maintenance, so the assumption is exactly as you say - eventually strip some planes for parts, or - as seems to be the Russian way - just ignore maintenance schedules altogether.

Because of this, the planes become essentially worthless as their history and condition will forever be in question. Even if this all comes to an end quickly and sanctions are lifted, the planes will be toast.

[Brendone]

Is there no way for the UN to establish escorts for humanitarian efforts and corridors, or is Russias vito power absolute? Would seem reasonable that in this situation, they don’t get a vote

[karl262]

Originally Posted by blankall

Mediation will be the key to ending this at some point. Both parties will look for a solution that lets them save face....unless Putin gets taken out.

At some point, yes. Currently the Russian armed forces are behaving as terrorists and as long as they are we shouldn't consider them worthy or mediation.

Talk when they stop the indiscriminate urban terror attacks. Until then give the trapped civilians a chance and shoot down incoming artillery. In any event it would probably take days if not weeks to get something up and running to do this. Might not be anything left to defend by then.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Brendone

Is there no way for the UN to establish escorts for humanitarian efforts and corridors, or is Russias vito power absolute? Would seem reasonable that in this situation, they don’t get a vote

The corridors are already in place. There are various ceasefire areas already negotiated. In reality, Russia is strictly controlling those corridors and only letting batches of vehicles out at a time.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Brendone

Is there no way for the UN to establish escorts for humanitarian efforts and corridors, or is Russias vito power absolute? Would seem reasonable that in this situation, they don’t get a vote

UN has no power outside it's member nations. A nation or nations would have to enforce it.

Who wants to volunteer, who's presence will not escalate the situation, and who's troops do you trust enough.

[curves2000]

As I had predicted, the address today by Ukraine's President, although historic, emotional and powerful just echo's the already big gap on what Ukraine is pleading for and what Canada is willing to offer.

I have zero issue with Zelensky advocating for his nation and doing what is Ukraine's interests for survival, for democracy and for what is right and for it's people.

I do think we have an issue with a lot of ribbons, offers of support, "we stand with Ukraine" talk and some weapons and military equipment.

Knowing full well what he was going to ask, and that Canada can not and will not offer, at least have something of high importance being offered back in return for pleas.

Canada sanctioning some more elite Russians is fine and dandy but that isn't addressing the concern on the ground, evidence by the fact that everybody who's on the ground is saying that sanctions aren't going to stop the bombings, the critical element here.

I was always concerned that this was a little more for show than anything designed to meaningful impact things on the ground and now.

If Canada won't and can't provide what we know is being requested, we better figure out what we will provide that will alter the course of history. Applause, job well done from Canadas MP's, offers of support, wearing ribbons and standing together with Ukraine won't cut it. When your invited to address Parliament and are asked for more than what you already have offered, the onus is on us to do more. We extended the invite and the offer.

[Itse]

A new batch of Russian humor.

There are two questions on the agenda: how to rule the world, and how to make a bag of potatoes last 3 months. What's interesting, every time the first question appears on the agenda, the second one follows.

Instagram was blocked in Russia. The number of users in the Netherlands rose by 59 million.

Judging from the way everyone is stocking up on toilet paper, Russians are feeling very optimistic about the food situation.

Roskomnadzor (The Russian censorship agency) demanded that the Russian media use “a decade of Russian culture in Ukraine” instead of "war".

The Russian soldiers who captured Kherson started building dachas for command personnel out if habit.

In the event of a nuclear war, WHO recommends wearing two masks at once.

And of course this, I posted a variation of this, but this is relevant... (not sure if posted already).

A man is standing with a sign in a square in Russia. The police comes and arrests him.
"Why are you arresting me, it's an empty sign?"
"Everything is clear anyway."

This joke is special, because this recently really happened:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1502687513655361537

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503864619932205065

Historians are going to question whether this was the dumbest army ever sent into the field.

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I'm assuming they won't fly for too long without being able to get parts for them.

Ah. what Itse just said.

They could really use some of those Ukrainian farmers that are fixing up tanks to do some work on those planes. They'd be flying in no time.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

From how I understood it, if they declare a no fly zone, then NATO would actively be engaging anything in the air over Ukraine. Which means a direct NATO attack on Russians.

That would lead down a path there is no coming back from I think.

Is there precedent during the cold war?

Well, not with a no fly zone. But when the US saw Russian ships heading to Cuba, armed with missiles, Kennedy did call Kruschev's bluff. It was a very intense day or two and in the end, the Russian ships turned around and went home.

There is more to it of course, but that is kind of a very short gist of the situation.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Hah... if the comparable situation is the freaking Cuban missile crisis, then yes, it is best avoided.

The reality is, NATO has never itself declared a no-fly zone. Where they have been implemented, it's been by UN decree, and once by the USA due to the use of chemical weapons against civilians. Obviously no UN decree is happening here.

[btimbit]

Well, update on my brother in-laws family. His mom, sister and grandparents will all arrive in Calgary next week. (Dad has lived here for years already) Great news as they had lost contact for over 10 days and hadn't heard good news from other family members.

Lots of family still stuck there. Male cousins obviously can't leave and are so mad now that they are committed to fighting. His dad is so frustrated and helpless feeling, he wants to leave Canada and go fight as well, he and my sister are doing their best to convince him to stay.

I can't imagine the feeling of helplessness seeing this happen to your own country. Eat a dick Putin. Then choke on it. #### you